233 thoughts on “Monday Open Thread”

  1. I first came to SSP back when Mississippi’s 1st CD was having a special election. I excited at the chances of Travis Childers winning the election. I searched everywhere to find a site that would provide more insight and coverage of the race. SSP was the only one I could find. Several many elections later I’m still here and do enjoy having SSP digests to read.

    So thanks again, looking forward to many more good times at this site.

    ps excellent clip

  2. This is kinda funny and I pray no one is offended, but I must say that I find so many of the embedded vids on the Open Thread so “stuff white people like.” It’s cool but it’s somewhat different for me, like entering a different world; yet it is surprisingly easy for me to see how it appeals to others different from me.

    The internet blurs so many artificial lines and in it we can live on our own terms, though it sometimes gives you a sliver of what we choose to see out in the common world.  

    Anyway, keep on….keeping on.

  3. Delaware has a senate race(Carper is up for re-election), house race (Carney is up for re-election), and governor (Markell is up for re-election)  race in 2012. Is there any chance Carper is retiring?  Is there any chance O’Donnell WON’T run for Senate in 2012 en route to her fourth straight defeat? Does a Republican have any shot in either of these seats? The only viable statewide candidate to me seems to be state senate Kathy Cloutier, but I doubt she would run. Even if she does, I doubt she would survive the primary.

    By the way, Delaware has a special election to fill the New Castle County President spot vacated by Chris Coons on January 13th. Moderate Republican Kovach against Democrat Sheldon.

  4. Since its been getting a lot of discussion, here’s my two cents. Here are my main thoughts:

    1) Maybe the single biggest problem out there is that Russ Carnahan simply is, in my opinion, not that talented a politician who struggles ins what is already a gerrymandered district crafted to secure Dick Gephardt.

    2)Nixon can use Todd Akin as leverage; he can threaten to veto any plan and incentivize the GOP to cut a 5-3 map.

    2a) The way I’d create 3 Democratic seats is the following: split the difference between Lacy Clay’s demands and Carnahan’s and then run the 3rd District across I-70 to Columbia and shed the most GOP portions of Jefferson and St. Genieve into the 8th. Yes, it will be hideous, but would create a fairly safe Dem seat.

    From there, under this scenario, carve up the 9th District any way you like. My guess is that the GOP puts Blaine Luetkemeyer and Vicki Hartzler together in a new 4th as they are the least senior, and you’re going to have to have some sort of Springfield based seat anyways.

    That said Jo Ann Emmerson is not a creature of the legislature, so they could try to get rid of her despite her seniority. That could backfire as she’s always struck me as relatively moderate for the district, and I could actually see her as a Blue Dog Democrat and surviving in the 8th.

    Graves sheds the most Dem areas near Kansas City from the 6th into Cleaver’s 5th and takes rural territory formerly in the 9th, as does Akin.

    So, the survivors would be the 3 Dem incumbents, Graves, Akin, Long (getting rid of the 7th in some form is probably impossible), and one of Emerson, Hartzler, or Luetkemeyer

  5. State Senator Michael O’Pake of Reading died today of complications from heart surgery. It was loss for the entire Commonwealth.

    O’Pake was elected to the State Senate in 1972 and was recent re-elected as Democratic Whip. He was the longest-serving member of the state legislature. Below is the official statement.

    Senator Michael A. O’Pake (D-Berks County) passed away this morning in Reading Hospital and Medical Center, where he had been recovering from complications suffered during heart bypass surgery on November 22.

    He was the longest-serving member in the Pennsylvania General Assembly, and recently was re-elected as Democratic Whip in the Senate for the 2011-2012 legislative term.

    Senator O’Pake represented the city of Reading and surrounding areas. He was elected to the General Assembly in 1968, when he defeated the incumbent Representative for his House District in Reading, and entered the Senate in 1972.

  6. Here is a good article noting the major discrepancy in Arizona between the American Community Survey estimates and actual 2010 Census survey results. Based off the ACS, the census estimated that Arizona was home to 6,668,079 people, but the actual census results came out at just 6,392,017. Not a single other state in the country had a discrepancy on nearly as grand a scale.

    Now, since we don’t have community-level, let alone precinct-level Census results just yet, we can’t rule out the possibility that there was a systematic, state-wide error in how the ACS was calculated here. However, it seems quite possible that all that nativist debauchery surrounding SB 1070 results in many non-citizens (legal and otherwise) choosing not to fill out the census form.

    I disagree with the article that another factor could have been illegal immigrants leaving the state; while there’s a lot of evidence that did occur, most of that movement would likely have happened after the census, since people can’t really pick up and move overnight. FWIW, I’ve heard informally from an ESL teacher that all of her students stayed through the school year (mean that their parents and they should have been counted in the census) but then there was a bloc of them missing at the start of the next year in August.

    Either way, it looks like Arizona politicians screwed the state out of a lot of federal money and possibly a congressional district. Why do Phoenix’s suburbs keep electing these clowns?  

  7. I can’t believe there hasnt been more discussion of this, but he’s back!!!

    Alvin Greene’s running for SC State House seat in the 64th district in a special election due to the death of Summerton Democrat Rep. Cathy Harvin.

    A primary will be held February 15 with the special election set for April 5.

    Here’s the link to the article:

    http://www.live5news.com/Globa

    Anyone familiar with SC politics know what Greene’s chances are. He’s probably got a heck of a lot more name recognition than your average state house candidate.

  8. As an exercise, I tried to see if there might be a realistic path for 13-5 for Republicans in PA. I believe that there is, but they have to cut one of their new NEPA reps off at the knees, and it is otherwise a bit risky. Basically, it involves strengthening most of their seats in the SE and shuffling the deck in the SW. I can give detailed political info if people are interested, but I think the results mostly speak for themselves. Larger versions of these maps are available if you click on the images.

    Pittsburgh:

    PGH

    Tim Murphy takes a harder district. Altmire is made unhappy.

    A bigger picture of the West:

    West & SW

    The 3rd is mostly status quo, which might not be enough for the Republicans (as we saw in 2008).

    Philly:

    Philly

    Status quo, except that the Republican districts are generally made stronger.

    NEPA:

    NEPA

    Holden is likely gone. One of Barletta or the new guy in the 10th is quite unhappy, because the new 11th is even more Democratic than before.

    Central PA:

    The T

    The 5th is renumbered as the 12th and takes on Cambria. Glenn Thompson might be a little worried. But he is from Centre County, and supposedly strikes a moderate profile.

    Overall I doubt the Republicans go for this, but there might be some temptation.  

  9. The new governors are about to take office: below is the time line for each governor-elect will be dropping the elect in their title.

    Already happened: Abercrombie (Hawaii), December 6

    January 1:

    Snyder (Michigan)

    Martinez (New Mexico)

    Cuomo (New York)

    January 3

    Brown (California)

    Dayton (Minnesota)

    Sandoval (Nevada)

    Walker (Wisconsin)

    Mead (Wyoming)

    January 4

    Scott (Florida)

    LePage (Maine)

    Chafee (Rhode Island)

    January 5

    Malloy (Connecticut)

    January 6

    Shumlin (Vermont)

    January 8

    Daugaard (South Dakota)

    January 10

    Deal (Georgia)

    Brownback (Kansas)

    Kasich (Ohio)

    Fallin (Oklahoma)

    Kitzhaber (Oregon)

    January 11

    Hickenlooper (Colorado)

    January 12

    Haley (South Carolina)

    January 14

    Branstad (Iowa)

    January 15

    Haslam (Tennessee)

    January 17

    Bently (Alabama)

    January 18

    Corbett (Pennsylvania)

  10. Just had some beers in Alexa

    ndria with a former co-worker who works for Governor Bob, two nice pieces of info;

    1. Confirmed that Obama’s Political Affairs office called about who would replace Webb were he nominated for SecDef. Looks like a no-go though “They didn’t like our answer” was all I got, which I took to mean they refused to make any promises on who they’d pick (and not an outright admission it would be Allen, though I’m sure it would be).

    2. Gov office doesn’t think the State Senate Dems will be a major obstacle to tweeking Conolly’s district. “They are way more worried about keeping a shot at their majority than protecting Gerry” I pressed him on what they wanted and he said Not Much, but the legislature wants to put more of PW county in, which would help Herrity if/when he runs again.

    I think that means the 8th will have to come west. Also it seems Wittman wants to keep his newport news areas, which is no big deal except that will make shoring up VA-2 way more complicated

  11. guess I have to put on my game face and find some other way to whittle away the long, empty hours of winter break. (At least my TV works now!)

    Also, normally the open thread videos are totally lost on me, but Tears for Fears is quite literally my favorite band of all time. Much appreciated.

  12. With chalenges to Jon Brunning’s eithis this race might not be shoo-in for the GOP as we first thought. I want some polling. Any chance Nelson might get a challenger from the left

  13. Michigan Gov-elect is such a bad-ass, he’s just breaking all of the rules:


    Rick Snyder comes to Lansing with a plan for business tax cuts, government reform and positive thinking. One thing he won’t have, though, is a necktie … not often, anyway.

    The governor-elect is not a tie guy. Throughout much of his bid for the governor’s office this year, Snyder would appear with collar open, no power tie to be found.

    That’s radical stuff in the world of political attire, where the dominant desire is to play it safe. Take a gander at C-SPAN on any given day: blue suit, white shirt, red tie – that’s the politician’s armor.

    Nobody puts Rick Michigan in the corner. lol  This is about the most non-conformist this guy has ever been.  I remember he was asked by veteran capitol reporter Time Skubick if he ever yelled when he got mad, and like the cyborg he is he said, “no” because apparently it would have meant he lost control and Rick doesn’t loose control. lol  

  14. At first I thought that this story about Davis’ warning to Bill Clinton not to endorse anyone in the Chicago mayoral race in part by pulling the race card was outrageous and desperate, but now I’ve settled on pathetic and sad. Mostly, if you have to issue a salacious press release in a ploy for attention from Clinton you probably don’t hold as much sway with him as you think you do.

    Anyone with local knowledge have more info on this issue?

  15. So – get it:

    http://www.sunherald.com/2010/

    Shows put the reason as bluntly as it could be:

    “Shows, who is from Ellisville and has served in the House since 1992, said he’s the same man he was when elected 19 years ago as a conservative Democrat. It’s the Democratic Party, Shows said, that has changed.

    Shows said there’s an element of the Democratic Party leadership in Mississippi that believes the party is no longer a place for white conservatives.

    “So I’m here to be a white conservative Republican,” Shows said.”

    Well, he is probably correct. 20 years ago Legislature was, most likely, mostly white, mostly Democratic, mostly rural  and mostly conservative. Now the Democratic caucus is mostly black, mostly urban, and mostly liberal… He really has no place in it…

  16. MN-2’s DFL candidate, Shelley Madore, has been constantly attacking Kline on her facebook page. While Kline has never been that competitive, the current district was only 50/48 for McCain, is less Republican than Bachmann’s, and has changed a lot the past decade.  Madore is probably banking on the district needing to shrink heavily and with the conservative rural areas on the edges being the first to go with Obama able to win it if he wins by a similar margin in 2012.

    Madore was a state rep from 06-08, where she was heavily targeted and defeated after one term.  After losing in 08, she ran in 2010 against Kline, lost the DFL endorsement to someone who was in the race a bit longer and had already built up those endorsement promises, and then Madore beat him in the primary.  The DFL was mad she decided to cross them as she said she’d abide by the endorsement.  Not really the best resume, but it’s a step up from the usual nobody’s.

  17. But did anyone see his latest lunacy about Christine O’Donnell in Red State (no, I’m not going to link there). Erickson put up a post maintaining that it proves media bias that the media covered O’Donnell more than Alvin Greene, South Carolina’s own version of crazy. Um, okay, so I’m not a media expert, but here’s why I’m guessing that happened 1). Greene didn’t upset a former governor and current congressman who was strongly favored to win the Senate seat 2). Greene wasn’t made the poster boy by all the Tea Party groups (and blogs like Red State) and 3). Greene didn’t raise $7 million dollars.

    What’s even funnier is Erickson goes on to say it was a good thing for the Republicans the media had this bias, because “many Democrats were left venting that other candidates escaped the media pat down.” Erickson says this is why O’Donnell is his “big hero” for the 2010 election cycle. Hmmmm – perhaps I didn’t follow the campaign closely enough, but I don’t remember any Democrats claiming their opponents were not being scrutinized enough because of Christine O’Donnell. Maybe Erickson would like to tell us which Republicans weren’t scrutinized by the media because they were too focused on the Wicked Witch of Delaware.

    Speaking of Erickson’s “hero”, she is now under investigation for campaign fraud – using campaign expenses for personal expenses

    http://www.bostonherald.com/ne

  18. The FBI is investigating O’Donnell for misusing campaign for personal use. This is something any follower of Delaware politics is aware of, but I’m still surprised the FBI, and not the FEC or some election regulatory body, is investigating this. Apparently, the use of campaign funds went for more than just rent, gas, food, and bowling trips.

    Delaware News Journal (local newspaper):

    http://www.delawareonline.com/

    Washington Post article:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/

  19. Can anyone with any familiarity tell me if Tom Kovach has a chance of winning? He lost re-election narrowly b/c of the trainwreck of O’Donnell. If he does win, would he be viable statewide, in a future Senate race, if Carper retires and Biden does not run, or for congress if Carney runs for gov or senate someday?  

  20. Recently, we’ve been talking about the possibility of a presidential run for Bloomberg. But with the New York City government’s fitful response to the snowstorm that took place last Saturday and Sunday, some people are saying he has no future at all as a candidate for higher office. I read the New York Daily News today, and they had some choice words about him.

  21. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/

    For what it’s worth, I’ve heard rumblings that Davis has considered dropping out, while Moseley Braun is vehemently against it. No surprise, I guess, given Davis has a job and Moseley Braun doesn’t. Note that Davis still has yet to even launch a campaign website.

  22. Because it looks like NJ has settled on #11:

    http://www.politickernj.com/43

    Sources say both political parties have agreed upon the potential 11th member of the state redistricting committee that will determine the legislative map for the next decade.

    Rutgers Professor and former Eagleton Institute of Politics Director Alan Rosenthal has backing from both Democrat and Republican five-man redistricting committees, sources familiar with the effort told PolitickerNJ.

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