I made a map with two goals. They were:
1.) Keep cities together, and if possible, counties
2.) Make the district without care for partisanship
Philadelphia is the only city in more than one cd, and only four counties have 3 or more cds in them (Allegheny, Philadelphia, Chester, and Montgomery. 4 out of 69 aint bad, considering that Philadelphia has to be.)
There is high upside here for both parties, and this is a decent compromise, although more favorable to the republicans. It comes down to if you believe 2008 or 2010 is the closer to reality.
I really only think one picture is necessary due to the nature of this exercise. If anyone wants a zoomed view, lemme know. All are under 1000 off the ideal population.
District 1 (Blue): 53% Black, 88% Obama
Entirely Philadelphia. Safe as could be. 1-0-0
District 2 (Green): 36% B, 14 Hispanic, 5 Asia, 80% O
Entirely Philadelphia. Safe as could be. 2-0-0
District 3 (Dark Magenta): 58% O
North-East Philly, and parts of Montgomery and Bucks. Leans very D. 3-0-0
District 4 (Red): 61% O
Delco and a part of montco. Likely D. 4-0-0
District 5 (Gold): 54% O
Rest of Montgomery and Bucks, plus a tiny bit of chester. Toss-up, Leans slightly R. 4-0-1
District 6 (Teal): 56% O
Bethlehem, Allentown, Easton and their counties, plus a bit of monroe. Toss-up, Leans slightly D. 4-0-2
District 7 (Dark Grey): 56% O
Scranton, Wilkes-Barre and the surrounding area. Toss-Up, Leans slightly D. 4-0-3
District 8 (Slate Blue): 53% M
A few small cities (Hazelton, Bloomsburg, Pottsville), but a lotta empty area. Likely R. 4-1-3
District 9 (Cyan): 55% O
Reading, the rest of Berks and a huge part of chester county. Pure Toss-Up 4-1-4
District 10 (Deep Pink): 56% M
Lancaster, Lebanon and space. Likely R. 4-2-4
District 11 (Chartreuse): 51% M
Harrisburg and York. Lean M. 4-3-4
District 12 (Cornflower Blue): 63% M
Not a lot going on here. Safe R. 4-4-4
District 13 (Dark Salmon): 54% M
North PA. Surprised it is this close tbqh. Likely R. 4-5-4
District 14 (Olive): 49% O (Wins by about 600 votes).
Erie. Toss-Up, Leans R. However, I think obama underperformed what a congressional D could do here so i’m counting it in the toss-up. 4-5-5
District 15 (Dark Orange): 55% M
North of Pitt. Likely R. 4-6-5
District 16 (Lime): 64% O
Pittsburgh. Safe D. 5-6-5
District 17 (Dark Slate Blue): 50% O
South of Pitt. Toss-Up, Leans R. 5-6-6
District 18 (Yellow): 56% M
The rest, includes Altoona. Likely R. 5-7-6.
Not the best either side could do, but most definitely fair. Both sides have reason to believe they could win a lot of the toss-ups. I hope the gopers believe that anyways. Well, lemme know.
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The code I used for your image is
(img src=”http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v725/wartank7/GOP/overwiew.jpg”)
except I replaced the parentheses () with carets <>.
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The map certainly appeals to my aesthetics. Could you comment on how incumbents are affected in terms of residency?
sure
Brady and Fattah would still run in 1 and 2.
Dalkhemper would be in the new 14 (Similar to the old 3) but Mike Kelly no longer would be. She would have to be the favorite to win the dem primary.
The new 15 (Similar to the old 4) would house Kelly and Altmire. Kelly would be the favorite but i wouldn’t rule out an altmire upset.
GT Thompson of the old 5th would live in the new 13th. Should win easily. Marino would also live here.
Gerlach would live in the new 9th. Slightly more conservative than the old 6th. He woul be joined their by Joe Pitts. What a fight that would be, plus they would have a hard general fight on their hands as well.
Sestak and Meehan (and Lentz, and myself!) would all be in the new 4th. If Sestak chooses to run again the seat is his.
Murphy would be in the new 4th, as would Fitzpatrick. This would look to set up round 3, but Schwartz would be the favorite in both the dem primary and general.
Shuster would be in the new 18th, from the ninth. So would Critz. I’d take Critz, honestly.
The new 7th would hold Carney and Kanjorski, a pair of defeated dems.
Doyle would be in 16 instead of 14.
Barletta would be in the new 8th. So would Tim Holden.
Dent would be in the new 6th, as would Callahan.
GOP Murphy would be in the new 17th.
Platts would be in the 11th.
In Summery:
1: Brady
2: Fattah
3: Schwartz, Murphy (D), Fitzpatrick
4: Sestak, Meehan, Lentz
5:
6: Dent, Callahan
7: Carney, Kranjorski
8: Barletta, Holden
9: Gerlach, Pitts
10:
11: Platts
12:
13: Thompson, Marino
14: Delkhemper
15: Altmire, Kelly
16: Doyle
17: Murphy (R)
18: Shuster, Critz
if PA has a commission designing its seats this map would be an excellent start.
I think read an article where Congressman Platts suggested that the GOP house members were thinking more modestly then 2001. I leads me to think Holden will get lots of democratic areas-Scranton or Montco-added to his seat. You will almost certainly see PA4 or PA12 chopped up or perhaps even a PA4-PA12 merger.
Just as you might not see an extreme democratic effort in IL you might see a more protect all incumbents plan in PA.
nt
But why would the Rethugs agree to this?