During the last redistricting, the Democrats and the Republicans allowed for a split redistricting plan: Dems redraw the Assembly, the GOP drew the Senate, and they both drew the House map. Now, with split control again, I think it would be best to allow the Courts to draw the redistricting map, even if it means Dems lose about twenty Assembly seats–Dems already control about 70% of the vote share!
So, I tried to draw the map as if I were the courts. Sorry if my naming of colors throws you off.
My plan is a fair plan:
I make as many minority-majority seats as I think would be necessary;
No district is designed specifically for any current senator;
County splitting is avoided as much as possible;
Almost all towns are kept together: no joke, there is not a single town outside of Nassau and Suffolk that is split. In Suffolk, Islip is too big, so three precincts are moved to NY-02. In Nassau, some hamlets might be split, but I’m pretty sure there aren’t that many that are;
In the City, I tired to respect racial groups;
Upstate, I tried to keep regions together.
To that end, Democrats would surely take the State Senate under this map. I’ve classified everything from R+1 to D+3 as a swing district. If you give Republicans all swing districts, they’ll only muster 25 seats. Kudos to the 2000 GOP, they made one heckuva map. Can you imagine if Dems made a Senate map? They could easily make 45 seats, but that’s a different story.
Here’s my map:
NY-1 D+1 Blue
South Hampton, Part of Brookhaven
NY-2 R+0 Green
Part of Brookhaven, Three Precincts of Islip
NY-3 D+1 Purple
Rest of Islip
NY-4 R+4 Red
Huntington, Smithtown
NY-5 R+2 Yellow
Babylon, Part of Oyster Bay
NY-6 D+2 Teal
Part of Hempstead
NY-7 D+2 Gray
Part of Hempstead
NY-8 D+3 Bluish Purple
Part of Hempstead, Part of North Hempstead
NY-9 D+1 Turquoise
Part of North Hempstead, Part of Oyster Bay
NY-10 D+14 Pink
Queens
NY-11 D+18 Light Green
Queens
NY-12 D+27 Light Blue
Queens
NY-13 D+27 Beige
Queens
NY-14 D+10 Mustard Green
Queens
NY-15 D+40 Dark Blue
Queens
NY-16 D+27 Orange
Queen, Brooklyn
NY-17 D+44 Lighter Green
Brooklyn
NY-18 R+5 Yellow
Brooklyn
NY-19 D+44 Green
Brooklyn
NY-20 D+42 Light Pink
Brooklyn
NY-21 D+39 Velvet Red
Brooklyn
NY-22 D+28 Brown
Brooklyn
NY-23 R+4 Darker Turquoise
Brooklyn
NY-24 D+12 Dark Purple
Brooklyn, Staten Island
NY-25 R+15 Pinkish Red
Staten Island
NY-26 D+41 Dark Gray
The Bronx
NY-27 D+31 Green
Brooklyn, Manhattan
NY-28 D+31 Dark Pink
Manhattan
NY-29 D+33 Green Gray
Manhattan
NY-30 D+23 Orange Red
Manhattan
NY-31 D+43 Yellow
Manhattan
NY-32 D+39 Red
Manhattan
NY-33 D+43 Blue
The Bronx
NY-34 D+25 Green
The Bronx, Queens
NY-35 D+32 Purple
The Bronx
NY-36 D+37 Orange
The Bronx, Mount Vernon
NY-37 D+9 Blue
Yonkers, New Rochelle
NY-38 D+11 Turquoise
White Plains, Rye
NY-39 D+5 Yellow
Peekskill, Clarkstown
NY-40 R+3 Red
Ramapo, Orangetown
NY-41 EVEN Gray
Middletown, Newburgh
NY-42 R+2 Light Green
Poughkeepsie, Beacon
NY-43 D+6 Pink
Kingston, Hudson
NY-44 D+9 Reddish
Syracuse
NY-45 D+9 Blue
Ithaca, Auburn, Cortland
NY-46 R+6 Prange
Elmira
NY-47 R+6 Light Pink
Rome, Utica, Oneida
NY-48 R+6 Orange
Watertown, Oswego
NY-49 R+1 Red
Binghamton, Vestal, Oneonta
NY-50 R+6 Gray Blue
Gloversville, Amsterdam
NY-51 D+5 Brown
Schenectady, Troy
NY-52 D+8 Dark Green
Albany, Rensselaer
NY-53 D+5 Gray
Plattsburg, Potsdam, Ogdensburg
NY-54 R+2 Light Beige
Saratoga Springs, Glens Falls
NY-55 D+4 Dark Beige
Part of Rochester, Perinton, Geneva
NY-56 D+12 Blue
Rest of Rochester
NY-57 R+11 Green
Olean, Corning
NY-58 R+5 Purple
Jamestown, Dunkirk, Pomfret, Orchard Park
NY-59 D+15 Red
Part of Buffalo, Lackawanna
NY-60 D+8 Yellow
Part of Buffalo, Niagara Falls, Tonawanda, North Tonawanda
NY-61 R+5 Turquoise
Amherst, Lockport
NY-62 R+8 Gray
Greece
I want to see if it’s even possible to draw a Republican majority anymore, given the growth in NYC relative to the rest of the state
Thanks! It’s all nice theoretically, but I doubt Shelly would go to the courts, he needs to keep the barely veto proof assembly, he’ll probably go for the same deal, and you know, national or state Dems aren’t the boss, it’s basically Shelly, I doubt Cuomo will fight him on this.
By the way what are the final numbers for the new assembly?
to me at least. How far ahead of the GOP nominees for US senate & Gov did republican state senate candidates run? I believe the republicans won every state senate seat in Nassau and Suffolk county but Cuomo Schumer and Gillbrand won those counties by a ton.
That’s one reason why I think we will see a compromise US house seat map in NY. You can plug in the Obama 2008 numbers and see a 25-2 sweep for the democrats but that underestimates the generic GOP strength in the state. The five upstate wins and the near defeats of three other democratic congressman shows there is still a generic GOP vote in parts of NY.
Let each party take a hit on losing a seat then protect incumbents or try to protect incumbents. I am still amazed that the republicans were down to two US house seats in NY. Historic. That has to be an long time low.
that Cuomo should veto all redistricting plans, no matter how much the Assembly whines.
remains partisan abuse of the 10% population deviation between state legislative districts permitted by the NYS Constitution. That ought to be a lot less, 2% or under. No one cares about districts crossing county borders or other agrarian age considerations these days.
I’m not persuaded that incumbency or pork is what is keeping Republicans in control of the NY state Senate anymore. The voters are keeping it out of Democratic hands so that they have to shape up as a Party.
Would it help the Republicans to add a seat to the Senate, helping to preserve an upstate seat for themselves?