A 14-4 GOP (Dummy?)mander of PA

Following dramatic gains in the House of Representatives, I think most state legislatures controlled by the Republicans will try to be aggressively maximize their seats.  After 2008, we were proposing 28-0 maps of New York and assuming anything that went even slightly for Obama would be ours in perpetuity, so the Republicans are likely having similar thoughts now.  With that preface, I present my map of Pennsylvania.

The whole State

PA-05, Gold, 52%M 46%O

G.T. Thompson (R)

The 5th takes half of Erie, becoming more Democratic, but it had some room to spare.

PA-09, Cyan, 54%M 44%O

Bill Shuster (R) vs Mark Critz (D)

Johnstown is severed from the 12th district a lumped in with the more conservative 9th.  Critz may choose to run in the new 12th instead.

Southeast

PA-01, Blue, 85%O 14%M

Bob Brady (D)

This district shifts to the North some, losing the tentacle to Chester while grabbing white liberal areas in Delaware and Montgomery counties, but retails its Black plurality (43%).

PA-02, Green, 91%O 9%M

Chaka Fattah (D)

Still a Black majority district but less so (52%).  Gains some of the Hispanic parts of Philly, while losing some of West Philly to the 1st district.

PA-13, Salmon, 64%O 35%M

Allyson Schwartz (D)

Little known fact: The current 13th was drawn to be winnable by a Republican.  Not any longer.  The new form is quite sinuous, picking up as many dem areas in the Philly burbs as possible.  

PA-06, Teal, 51%O 48%M

Jim Gerlach (R)

While this district bears rather little in common with its former self, it is significantly more Republican than the old 6th which went 58% for Obama.

PA-07, Gray, 50%O 50%M

Pat Meehan (R)

We trade urban parts of Delaware county for some rural parts of Chester and Lancaster, making the district safer. It now went for Obama by only 127 votes.

PA-08, Periwinkle, 52%O 47%M

Mike Fitzpatrick (R)

Still a Bucks County centered district, it does some precinct swapping with the 13th to become marginally more Republican.

PA-16, Lime, 52%M 46%O

Joe Pitts (R)

The 16th now stretches from South Philly to Chambersburg.  Pitts will have to introduce himself to a lot of new voters, since most of his former territory has been moved to other districts.

PA-18, Yellow, 53%M 46%O

Todd Platts (R)

This district is actually a good fit for the moderate Platts, giving him the rapidly Bluing cities of York, Lancaster and Lebanon as well as some Conservative rural areas connecting them.

Northeast

PA-17, Indigo, 53%M 46%O

Open or Tim Holden (D)

In attempt to get rid of Holden, his home county (Schuylkill) is removed from the district and more conservative territory to the West is substituted.  He may choose to run here anyway or he may run in the 11th.

PA-15, Orange, 56%O 43%M

Charlie Dent (R)

The 15th is not strengthened or significantly changed since Dent rather effortlessly survived both ’06 and ’08.  If it ain’t broken, don’t fix it.

PA-11, Chartreuse, 51%O 48%M

Lou Barletta (R) vs Tim Holden (D)

This district is made significantly more Republican, but it may not help if Barletta gets tossed in front of the legendary Holden steamroller.  Of course Holden hasn’t had serious challenge in years so he may be rusty and Barletta may be able to ride anti-immigrant sentiment to victory.  Holden may also choose to run in the 17th.  Even then Barletta may not be completely safe, but I did warn you that this map was a reach.

PA-10, Pink, 51%O 48%M

Tom Marino (R)

Marino better hope 2012 is good year for the GOP because adding Scranton makes this an Obama district and he doesn’t have much time to get established.

Southwest

PA-03, Purple, 53%M 45%O

Mike Kelly (R)

Losing part of Eire makes this district safer.

PA-04, Red, 55%M 44%O

Jason Altmire (D) vs Timothy Murphy (R)

Here we try to eliminate narrow 2010 survivor Altmire by setting up a dogfight between him and long time rep Murphy.  While the district is not any more Republican than the current 4th, The territory just over half from the old 18th and he would be up against a fellow incumbent.

PA-14, Olive, 68%O 31%M

Mike Doyle (D)

Not much change here.

PA-12, Cornflower Blue, 55%M 43%O

Open or Mark Critz(D)

If Critz tries to run here rather than the 9th, he’ll find it more Republican than his old district, where he only narrowly survived 2010.

69 thoughts on “A 14-4 GOP (Dummy?)mander of PA”

  1. and the new thought for me is that plunge by CD16 into city of Chester.  That’s a new move to me.  I have not thought of it.  That’s a nifty and yet Bold move. Pitts will have a cow if that was done but its a nifty move.  

    Here’s my 50 cents on PA.  The clue came from recent comments from Pitts and he made clear he thought the 2001 plan was too aggressive and in fact the democratic pickups of 2006 & 2008 were related to being over reaching.  So in PA in fact I believe we will see some caution from the GOP.

    Here’s what my crystal says and really there are only two major points in PA redistricting.

    1. Eliminate Holden’s seat or stack and pack democrats into it.

    2. What do with PA4 & PA12.  Do you merge them or do you eliminate one and make the other more republican.

    My Crystal ball says that Holden survives and either makes a plunge into Scranton & Lehigh valley area or does Lehigh valley area and a Montco move. Think right angle or boomorang shaped district.  Okay since they let Holden survive the GOP will be a bit more aggressive out West.  

    Altimire’s home area near Pittsburg is folded into PA14. Cambria & johnston either goes to PA5. PA4 slides through Butler county and picks up more of Westmoreland county. PA18 loses a bit more of Allegany to PA14 and picks up Western part of PA12.  Then PA9 rolls into the southern part of PA12. We have several maps here cover the SW scenerios for PA.

    I think the GOP concedes 5 seats and makes substantial progress in locking up the other seats.   PA4 loses its part of Mercer county and maybe 1/2 Lawrence.  PA3 picks up more Venago and Warren county.  

    I don’t see 14-4.  Pitts has suggested a little more caution.  If the GOP keeps all of its 2010 gains and has a real shot at PA4 then they have moved the ball enough in PA.

     

  2. It’s pretty similar in some areas, but overall it’s a 13-5 map.  Signs are the Republicans aren’t going to be as aggressive this time as 2000.  I’ll post the map next week when I get diary rights.

    I think Holden is essentially untouchable until retirement.  Hell, the new 11th, which you have him in, is more Democratic than his existing seat by a good deal (and has more of his pre 2000 district, IIRC).  I messed around with eliminating him, but ultimately you need a vote sink for some Democratic votes in Redding, the Lehigh valley, or the Wyoming valley.  I decided to give him Redding, the Poconos, Easton, and Bethlehem, which helped shore up PA-15 a lot.  Similar to you, I split up Scranton and Wilkes-Barre however.  This gave him a district which was around D+4 – not as good as it could have been if he had the Wyoming valley, but there was no way to do this without giving Lou Barletta a base.  

    I also think your PA-8 and PA-15 are still a little too Democratic for comfort.  

    Still, putting Altmire and Murphey in the same district is pretty genius.  I’m pretty sure the new PA-4 is more Democratic than the old PA-19 however, so I don’t think it’s a lock for Murphey

  3. I’d say this is a dummymander.  Yes it does make some of the swing seats a bit more Republican but there are still 5 districts that are over 50% Obama and in a Dem wave election I suspect many of them would be won by Dems.  It might be better if the GOP went 13-5.

  4. in the end this would be a dummymander for the GOP. If Tim Holden could beat George Gekas he can beat Lou Barletta. And Tom Marino is put in a pretty precarious position here. You’ve maximized Republican fortunes in the Philadelphia area, but there are too many risks here – not just for Marino and Barletta, but for Tim Murphy out west. Since the election, I’ve always thought the following would happen in Pennsylvania:

    – Schwartz’s seat becomes a Dem vote sink and the Philly Republicans (Gerlach, Meehan, Fitzpatrick) are shored up, just as you showed, but

    – Holden is given a much more Democratic seat, grabbing liberal pockets from the 11th and 6th (as I said, they thought they’d gotten him in 2002 and he’s still here, while Barletta will need some padding)

    – eliminate Critz’s seat, giving Tim Murphy the GOP areas and splitting the Dem areas between Mike Doyle and Bill Shuster

    Critz will be the Western PA casualty, not Altmire, because Altmire has already proven himself three times in tough races. They could have eliminated Murtha’s seat in 2002, and without his seniority, there is now no reason to keep it.

  5. I do much better than you (in GOP terms) for areas outside the Philly corner, but not nearly as well in the Philly burbs. What that tells me is that the actual map will be worst than either of ours.

    Mine’s still a work in progress, especially in light of yours. I need to strengthen the Southeast PA GOPers more.

    I would humbly suggest that your lines aren’t nearly ugly enough outside the Philly area. Republican legislators in Pennsylvania are not known for their cartographic restraint…

  6. Barletta and Marino both can’t be strengthened up, Scranton and Wilkes-Barre make sure of that. Whoever gets one or both of those places is going to have to put in a lot of work to hold on, especially in a presidential year. As they are both freshman, it’s hard to tell who gets the less favorable district.

  7. Even in the short term, because the republicans will have many troubles for defeat T Holden and J Altime who survive in R+6 district + republican wave year. Very difficult to see less than 6 democrats in the delegation of 2012.

    I think we will have a lot of swing districts in PA, and I think the republicans need to go to find swing district if they want not to decide what republican will have less chance of survive.

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