Random Antics: Hypothetical Connecticut Redistricting

Well, I started thinking about ways the Connecticut Democratic Party can get Ted Kennedy, Jr., into politics without potentially screwing over Rep. Chris Murphy of CT-05, the bold young soul in a bid for the Senate seat held by retiring independent Sen. Joseph Lieberman. And I thought, “Well, what about starting him off with a nice House seat?” And that evolved into wondering about exactly how to negate the fact that CT-05 represents a pickup opportunity for the Republicans, provided they field a good candidate, now that Murphy is moving on to (hopefully) bigger and better things.

I came up with this map.

What I’ve done here is I’ve basically cracked the existing CT-05, giving pieces of it to CT-01 (pink), CT-04 (red), and the new south-central-based incarnation of CT-05 (blue). I can’t guarantee Rep. Jim Himes in CT-04 is going to be thrilled, considering he had a closer-than-expected reelection campaign against Dan Debicella (drawn into Rep. Rosa DeLauro’s CT-03 [purple] on this map); Rep. John Larson in CT-01 should be fine, considering the sizable Democratic tilt of Hartford. I think Democrats will have to concede one district as “fair fight” and hope the state’s strong Democratic proclivities and a mediocre Republican bench are enough to keep it in friendly hands, and I think they’d rather trust an incumbent member of Congress to hold it down rather than the likes of First Selectman Mary Glassman, whose ticket didn’t even come close to prevailing in the Democratic gubernatorial primary last year. Having two close districts, as they did last year, is a bit uncomfortable when the Republicans remain capable of winning statewide at least on the state government level.

I’m not too knowledgeable about Connecticut politics in particular. My idea here is that by drawing CT-03 a bit west, CT-04 a bit north, CT-01 over into the northwestern corner of the state (making it much more compact in the process), and CT-02 more into the north-central than the south-central part of the state, I could create a new, open-seat CT-05 without jeopardizing the Democrats’ control of the congressional delegation. This CT-05 is specifically drawn for Kennedy, who lives in Branford (just east of the new boundary with CT-03, in the vicinity of New Haven). With a seat tailor-made for his political debut, Kennedy might be less tempted to upset the apple cart by making a damn-the-torpedoes run at the Democratic nomination-a scenario the Democratic establishment in Connecticut and the DSCC would surely like to avoid.

34 thoughts on “Random Antics: Hypothetical Connecticut Redistricting”

  1. simply because you took Bridgeport out of the district, which is the source of Dem vote strength there. I wouldn’t be surprised if your District 4 had an R PVI.

    Consequently, your CT-3 is probably a huge Dem vote sink – I’d put it at D+18 as a guess, and that might even be low.

  2. What about adding the pics from Dave’s redistricting app? I saved a pic as a JPEG to my desktop but don’t know how to add to a new diary?

  3. To refer to Himes’ re-election as “closer than expected”–he won by 6 points, a larger margin than in 2008, when he won by 4.  Only a very few D congresspeople can boast that.  I didn’t even expect him to win at all.  In 2008, Himes won only Bridgeport, Norwalk, and Stamford, whereas in 2010 he added Redding, Weston, and Westport.  

    Getting down to numbers, though, in 2010 Himes won Bridgeport by 14,197 votes while winning the district by 13,109.  So, without Bridgeport the district would have gone Republican by about 1100 votes, out of about 193,000 cast.  That’s still pretty close to even, actually, given the overall Republican lean of the year–I guess Stamford does an unheralded amount of work too.  So yeah, no Bridgeport, no Himes (at least in 2008 and 2010) but a hypothetical CT-04 without Bridgeport might be more competitive than you’d think.

  4. I like the maps what find imaginative ways what benefit to the democrats.

    I’m sure we will not see nothing worse than the current map for the democrats. Nothing about some EVEN district or somethig like this.

    If this map give some doubt about the rating of the red district, you can give less urban areas to the blue and to the purple districts. I think it is not difficult.

    Thanks Sao 🙂

  5. Expanded CT-05 (blue) slightly west toward New Haven while shedding parts of more conservative north New Haven County. I also split Bridgeport in such a way as to make sure CT-04 (red) is a “fair fight” district even in case of an open seat (I should hope). As for CT-03 (purple), it’s still anchored in New Haven, including parts of Bridgeport; Rep. DeLauro shouldn’t be hurt at all by the inclusion of north New Haven County in this revised drawing.

  6. All boundaries follow city lines, and counties are not broken up in most cases.  

    Districts are changed only in a minor fashion.  

    CT-4 gains Stratford, and loses some more right-leaning suburbs, making it a bit more Democratic.

    CT-2 with the exception of one town covers the eastern counties only.  Slight Democratic boost most likely due to the inclusion of Middletown (a college town)

    CT-3 is probably a bit less Democratic, but still safe.

    CT-1 and CT-5 exchange towns a bit, de-gerrymandering the border, and making the former a little less, and the latter a little more, Democratic.

    Bottom line is marginal improvements to Democratic performance.  

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