“Start spreading the blues…I want to be a part of it, New York, New York.”

In a perfect world, with New York losing a seat in the 2010 reapportionment, we could create 28 districts that would, more-or-less, give the Democrats a shot at winning 27 of them, some more easily than others. To do this, I had to ignored political reality, as you will see in the way districts were shaped (e.g. the sole GOP district or Staten Island’s bifurcation). As a corollary to ignoring political reality, I also did not attempt to make as many completely safe Dem seats as possible; otherwise, it would have been difficult to create 27 legitimately lean-Dem or better seats. However, I believe I did a fairly good job of creating favorable numbers for New York Democrats, at least in the sense that President Obama only won three of the 27 Democratic districts by less than 10% in 2008.

Note: I actually did this back in November ’10 but only now am I posting my efforts. It’s possible that updates have occurred to New York’s data since then. Also, I’m aware that New York ended up losing two seats in reapportionment, not just one as I originally thought while drawing this up.

Given that the great majority of Republican vote in New York lies Up State, I started out with the 28th district and sought out the most Republican voting districts. What I ended up creating was essentially a large U. How perfect for “Up State,” don’t you think?

Here’s how the northern part of New York turned out:

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And here is the data for the eight most easily seen districts here, 20 through 28. Note that “Dev.” is deviation from the ideal population for each district. I believe the rest of the data is self-explanatory.

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Unsurprisingly, the least diverse district in the state is the U-district, 28, with a stunning 95% white percentage, something one only sees in Utah. Or Wyoming. Clearly, this district would get struck down in any court outside of North Carolina or Florida. But I think people in Batavia, Elmira, Little Falls, and Johnstown actually have a lot in common and would enjoy having a common Member of Congress to represent their roughly 225-mile long district.

Among the Dem-tilting districts, District 22 is the only one to have an under D+10 net based on the 2008 election as the east coast of Lake Ontario is not the most liberal place in the state.

As we move further south in the direction of the city, we find Districts 18 and 19, both exurban and suburban.

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And their info:

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Just below these two is CD-17, and its image allows us to see the little part of CD-18 that stretches down below the previous shot of it (around White Plains, and Rye below that).

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And CD-17’s info:

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Now we get into the bluest part of the city, specifically the Bronx and upper Manhattan:

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Here are the nice numbers:

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Moving down the peninsula and east, we see Lower Manhattan and western Queens:

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Numbers:

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Getting a little out of order in CD numbers (I don’t feel like re-numbering), we’ll move down to Brooklyn and Staten Island. Clearly, in real life Staten Island would be very difficult to divide politically. However, for the sake of creating Dem-leaning or safe districts, it is absolutely vital to split up the Staten Island vote. And that is what I have done here, creating two Brooklyn-Staten Island districts. Additionally, the backward-S Brooklyn-based CD-6 and almost completely Brooklyn-based backward-C CD-9 can be seen here:

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And the info for those four districts:

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Moving back up into Queens, we find CD-10 which slightly abridges the Kings and Queens County border to cut into northern Brooklyn.

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And CD-10’s numbers:

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Next, CD-11 stretches across northern Queens and into northwestern Nassau. Since it’s an awkward district to get a picture of with Dave’s App, this picture will serve as kind of an update on where we are at this point:

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Now we’ve reached the challenge of Long Island. Honestly, creating the U-district was easy compared to all the time I spent adjusting the borders of these districts in an attempt to get the most Dem-leaning districts possible.

First, CDs 4 and 5. CD-4 crosses southern Queens, Nassau, and even has one voting district from Suffolk County in its boundaries. Meanwhile, CD-5 does the same, stretching from the Queens’ coast to even deeper into Suffolk.

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And the info for these two districts:

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CD-3 also crosses from Queens to Suffolk, clearly to get more Dem votes to make up for the Republican lean of some of the Long Island areas this district crosses.

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CD-2 covers the southern and eastern coast of much of Long Island (“Strong Island” to quote a former roommate of mine from there). It is tied with CD-19 as the least Democratic district besides CD-28. Meanwhile, CD-1 covers the remaining northern half but reaches into some Democratic stretches of Nassau to gain votes.

CD-2:

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And a somewhat better shot of CD-1:

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Finally, the info for CDs 1, 2, and 3:

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In sum, here’s a table of all the districts and their statistics:

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Thanks for reading my first diary.

46 thoughts on ““Start spreading the blues…I want to be a part of it, New York, New York.””

  1. 1. Hold it off two years if possible. That way we can probably get the state senate back in time to gerrymander the hell out of her.

    2. Get a state senator to switch parties. I don’t care what you have to do. A leadership post, no primary opponents, more pork, whatever it takes. That guy in the D+20 would be a perfect catch.  

  2. And, abgin aside, anything that doesn’t pack Republicans in 2 seats upstate is pretty much guaranteed to be a dummymander much of the time.

  3. Because this looks like a plan drawn by someone with a max-competition fetish. But if either party would like this plan, it certainly wouldn’t be the Democrats.  

  4. Again, I wrote this up before the final Census numbers. If New York indeed loses two, I guess I’m back to the drawing board. I also wasn’t aware anyone was reading this while I was finishing adding the pictures.

  5. I think we may have been at a certain college political club, and a certain department DMP program together at a certain university in the VA-5.

  6. in the form of a Democratic gerrymander. Basically, the Republicans get four districts, three of which are upstate. Peter King’s district is packed with Republicans, and Staten Island is split between the two Manhattan districts.  

  7. I say that at nearly every new thread but I mean it.  I know there is time, effort and skill behind every one of these maps.  Thanks for sharing.

    Just a few general comments.

    1. Your map is a reflection of democrat redistricting 101. To maximize democratic strength you have to attach suburban & rural areas to urban areas.  I must admit the Hamptons to Queens district is breathtaking in its reach.  

    2. I look at hose Obama numbers and I alot of districts with 55 or 54%. Obama won Nassau and Suffolk counties by 54% and the GOP swept the state senate races in those two counties last year.  That gives me an idea that 54 or 55% Obama districts in NY are not all that secure.  CD25 was a 56% Obama district.  I wonder how secure Congressman Maffei feels in that seat.  Just saying.

    3. I look for a standpat map in NY.  The seat in NYC will be a D loss and the GOP will lose an upstate seat.  I suspect all incumbents that survive will have similar seats to what they have. I look forward to NY census data

  8. Besides losing two seats, and not one, the biggest issue with your map is you don’t seem to understand how PVI works.

    Obama won nationwide with roughly 53% of the vote  Thus your NY-1, NY-2, NY-18, NY-19, NY-22, NY-26, and NY-27 have roughly PVIs of EVEN to D+2.  Considering Republicans are able to win and hold anything up to a PVI of D+4, all of these seats would be at risk for a Republican pickup.  

    You also seem to have completely ignored existing VRA seats in NYC.  You go from three to one majority-black district, and have only one majority-Latino district when it’s possible to draw three in NYC.  

    I drew an upstate-only map I’m going to post sometime next week.  I assume of the two seats eliminated, one will be in Upstate, the other somewhere in NYC (probably a majority-white one).  Regardless, this leaves Upstate with 6 solid D seats, and five solid R seats (none of which have PVIs between D+5 and R+5).  

    I do think drawing the Republicans down to one seat is perfectly feasible though.  You just need to be more aggressive at splitting up heavily-Democratic non-VRA seats than you are here.  

  9. I actually just finished a near impossible counter to this map: a GOP gerrymander of NY.  Funny how you can swing from a 26-1/25-2 to a 17-10 (which is what I have).

    I’ll get around to posting it sometime, but it basically makes 6 McCain districts in upstate NY to 5 Obama districts (including pitting Buerkle against Owens in a 59/39 O/M district running from Syracuse to the Canadian border), strengthens NY-13 + turning another district McCain in Queens, and then turns Bishop’s district into a 50/50 while strengthening up Peter King in NY-3.  It’s quite grotesque.

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