So anyway, I’ve been on a bit of a political hiatus since the midterm elections, and I figured that this would be a good way for me to get back in the game, to map out what I think the baseline race ratings for the 2012 presidential election are.
It’s extremely early in the game for this, to say the least, but I wanted to start here as opposed to the house or other races that will be impacted by redistricting.
First off, let’s put up the 2008 election results:
Darkest blue – 15%+ Obama win
Dark blue – 10-15% Obama win
Royal blue – 5-10% Obama win
Light blue – 0-5% Obama win
Light pink – 0-5% McCain win
Dark pink – 5-10% McCain win
Bright red – 10-15% McCain win
Dark red – 15% McCain win
You’ve probably seen this map before. It shows, in 5% amounts, the strength of the victory by Barack Obama or John McCain. It’s easy to see here that Obama romped in much of the northeast, the midwest, and the pacific coast while McCain won big in the plains and much of the southeast. Most of the major battlegrounds were in the southern midwest, the south atlantic coast, and in the southwest. Since the 2008 election is a good predictor of Obama’s strength in most states, I use these results as a major factor in my 2012 base ratings.
Now let’s take a look at another analysis, where I basically determine which of the US states are “red”, “purple”, and “blue”. I define a red state as a state that has either voted Republican for president in each of the last 5 elections, or a state that went for McCain by 10% or more in 2008. I define a blue state as any state that went Democratic in each of the last 5 elections.
At this point the analysis is pretty simple, and based on two simple factors, one subjective and one objective. Now is where we start to subdivide the states based on internal factors outside of presidential politics. I will speak briefly about every state that is NOT in the Solid D or Solid R column.
New Hampshire – This state went 54/45 for Obama, and went for Kerry in 2004, but has really taken a hard swing to the right now that foreign policy has taken a back seat to fiscal, it was opposition to Iraq that caused the D wave of 2006 here. Ayotte’s big win over Hodes in the 2010 Senate race gives me pause. I’m calling it a tossup.
New Jersey – This state is only on the board due to the success of Republican Gov. Chris Christie, who seems fairly popular in the state. I think the democratic machine has caused some unnecessary problems here, but unless Obama really gets rocked, he’ll still win. Likely D.
Pennsylvania – This is one state that I really, really think is wrongly classified as a swing state. It’s gone blue 5 straight presidential elections. In 2010, during the democrats’ worst election cycle in 26 years, Pat Toomey was still up after midnight before his race against Joe Sestak was called. I’m putting this one as Lean D, and that’s being generous to the republicans.
Virginia – This is becoming a premier swing state. Bob McDonnell crushed here in 2009, and the republicans did very well in the 2010 house races, but remember that every seat that they reclaimed in 2010 had a PVI of R+5 or higher. The one seat that had a democratic PVI, they lost. Obama seems popular here, especially in NoVA, but I have a feeling it will go as the nation goes in 2012. Tossup.
North Carolina – Barack Obama came up with a stunning 50/49 win here in 2008 as the Democrats swept the Senate and Governor races as well as 8 house seats. They only lost 1 house seat in the 2010 deluge, but governor Purdue is unpopular. The state’s growth seems to be in the democratic research triangle, which is heartening, but electing an african-american in the south is always tough. I’ll give the republicans the benefit of the doubt and say Lean R, but it’s one to watch for sure.
South Carolina – McCain won here by a 54/45 count, but I think some of the other democratic trending we’ve seen in the southeastern coastal states is bound to show up here sooner or later. The new congressional district here is bound to be a VRA seat, and the state GOP is disgraced by people like Mark Sanford and Joe Wilson. The 2010 governor’s race between Haley and Sheheen was closer than expected too. Likely R, and a potential sleeper.
Georgia – One of Barack Obama’s strongest improvements from Kerry in 2004 came here, losing 47/52. The growth here is in metro Atlanta, the most democratic part of the state, though the 2010 governor election between Deal and Barnes was disappointing. Georgia’s house democrats did all right for the most part in 2010. If Obama wins by as big a margin or bigger in 2012 he might have a shot here, but for now I say Lean R.
Florida – Florida is one state that really concerns me. Obama only won here by 3%, 4% behind his national win, and the republicans absolutely killed it in 2010, winning 4 house seats and winning massively in the Senate race. They even saw virtual criminal Rick Scott beat Alex Sink for the governorship. I feel like this state is trending R, but I’m leaving it at tossup for the time being due to Obama’s appeal in the southeast corridor.
Ohio – Ohio is a state that gave Obama trouble in 2008, winning 52/47, just behind his national win. Ohio dems got killed in 2010, losing 5 house seats, and Strickland lost the governorship to Kasich, albeit in a close fight. 2010 was essentially 2006 in reverse here, which leads me to believe that it will stay close to the nation as a whole once again. Obama’s hugely popular in the major cities here, which helps. Tossup.
Indiana – The Hoosier state appears to have reverted to its republican lean, with a blowout Senate race win in 2010 and a pickup of 2 house seats for the R’s. But the one house seat in a swing PVI district, they lost, which is a concern for them. I think that Obama is committed to fighting it out here like he did in 2010 and he’s got major popularity throughout the midwest, but I say Lean R going in.
Michigan – Michigan is weird. It’s gone D the last 5 presidential races, and Obama crushed here in 2008. Yet 2010 was nasty for Dems, they lost 2 house seats and got destroyed in the governor’s race. I don’t have much more than a hunch on this, but I think that the republican wave in 2010 was a one cycle aberration, and the states democratic lean will come back big in 2012. Lean D.
Wisconsin – Now here’s a state that’s hot, hot, hot politically right now. Obama’s popularity in the upper midwest combined with the vicious overreach that governor Walker and the state GOP is pulling right now could have a reverberating effect in the state and region. I just feel really good about all these upper midwest states, don’t know why, but I do. Lean D.
Minnesota – The Republicans held their convention here in 2008, but still couldn’t come within 10% of winning. Now they did make big gains to win both houses of the legislature but still lost the governor’s race, an obvious red flag in a year as good as 2010. Minnesota hasn’t gone red in seemingly forever, and I don’t expect this to be the year either. Lean D.
Iowa – This heartland state always has a big impact on presidential politics, and it figures to be a swing state again in 2012. It always stays close to the national average, probably about as democratic as Ohio is republican. Iowa dems actually did pretty well in the legislature in 2010 despite losing big in the senate and governor’s races, and they kept their 3 house seats. It’s a tossup, barely, I feel good about it.
Missouri – Obama just barely lost here in 2008, and the state is trending republican, despite their democratic governor being very popular. The 2010 senate race was a blowout, and it appears that the rural areas are getting to be off limits to Dems. I’m going to put this one at Lean R at the outset.
Colorado – This state has quickly moved into the tossup range of presidential politics, and the democrats had some encouraging signs here in 2010, most notably holding the governor and senate seats that year, despite losing 2 house seats. I’m not willing to put this one into the leaning D column yet, but demographic shifts are helping the dems here too. Tossup.
North/South Dakota – The Dakotas are both very small states, and states that McCain didn’t really perform all that well in. Now it appears that they are turning in the rightward direction a bit, but it’s hard to base anything on the 2010 senate contests as one race wasn’t contested and the other saw probably the most popular pol in the US to his state, John Hoeven, romp to a big win. I think that these could be in play if Obama wins big. Likely R.
New Mexico – This is a state that is really turning in the blue direction. The 2010 wave didn’t hit especially hard here, despite losing the governorship and one house seat. It’s hard to imagine the republicans getting a win here in an even presidential cycle given the state’s general movement toward the democrats, and Obama won 57/42 in 2008. Likely D.
Montana – The high plains were a big stomping ground for Bush in 2000/2004, but Obama really pressed McCain here in 2008, losing by just 2%. I think that it’s very possible that Obama could play here, especially with a competitive senate race on tap as well. I don’t know much about the state honestly, so I’ll say Lean R.
Arizona – This is probably the single toughest state to call in 2012 because the state appears to have moved to the republican side due to SB1070 and a few other factors, but the presidential race could have been close in 2008 had it not been for the McCain home state effect. With an intriguing senate race on the board too, this will be interesting. I start this out at Likely R.
Nevada – This, like New Mexico, is another state that appears to be moving toward being solidly democratic, as evidenced by Harry Reid’s 2010 win in a bad year. Obama won big here in 2012, and the pollsters seem to rate this state as being more republican than it really is. I’m starting Nevada out at Lean D.
Baseline: The current Obama approval / disapproval in the pollster.com regression is 48.4 to 46.3 in favor. Assuming that every voter who approves of Obama votes for him and everybody that disapproves doesn’t, that gives him about a 2% polling advantage, which I extrapolate to about a 2% national victory for Obama over whomever the Republicans nominate if the election were to be held today. (Obviously, the person the Republican Party nominates could have a big impact on polling numbers, but I’m not going to consider that aspect of it yet) These following ratings assume a 2% democratic win based on the current pollster regression.
Solid D – Dark Blue
Likely D – Medium Blue
Lean D – Light Blue
Toss Up – Green
Lean R – Pink
Likely R – Bright Red
Solid R – Dark Red
But I think you meant “Likely-R” for South Carolina and “Likely-D” for New Mexico.
I think NC is a tossup, AZ leans R and CO leans D the rest we are on the same page. The fact Obama can afford to lose IN, NC, FL, OH and VA and still win leaves me of the opinion that the president is in a stronger position for re-election than is generally thought.
As you rightly noted (and I kept shouting from the rooftop here!), public polling of Nevada sucks. Suffolk was one of the very few public pollsters to nail Obama’s double digit 2008 win, and it was the ONLY public pollster to predict a final Harry Reid win last year. Even PPP, which is typically quite good, couldn’t accurately gauge us. So if PPP shows Obama leading Huckabee, Gingrich, and Palin by low double digits, then it’s virtually assured Obama will win comfortably again. (Only Romney kept it close, but I don’t think he will win the GOP nomination.)
By my count anyway, the light blue has 253 EVs, and the pink has 206 EVs.
is hold on to the three states in the Southwest (Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado), and a few in the Midwest (Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan), and keep New Hampshire and he’s got 272 votes. I don’t expect we’ll have any trouble holding Pennsylvania or Minnesota. Everything else is dark blue and should be easy.
Basically, as with 2008, Colorado is the make or break state. If Obama’s winning Colorado again, he will probably be re-elected, even if he loses everything redder than that state. I’m optimistic just given the fact that Obama utterly destroyed McCain in all of those listed states, we don’t have to depend on repeating narrow victories in the traditional big prizes of Florida and Ohio.
It is consistently 4 points more Democratic than the national average. The shore has taken a hard turn to the right but that has been offset by the northern suburbs moving to the left. It doesn’t matter if Christie is currently popular. Mitt Romney was once the popular governor of Massachusetts. But once he started running for President and acting like a national Republican he was hated there. If Christie keeps being a confrontational asshole and pandering to national conservatives then he will be as hated in NJ as Romney is in MA.
It was the worst election for Dems in 16 years. That’s why Republicans won places they don’t usually win. Don’t confuse a one-time event for a trend.
All the blue states in the last map, plus IA, NH, CO only get Obama to 268 EV, as far as I can tell.
He really needs to win either FL or OH, but only needs one or the other. Republicans need both of them to have a real chance.
New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada look good for Obama. They’ve been trending Democratic for awhile now and 2010 didn’t completely obliterate the Dems there like in other parts of the country. Obviously having the crazy republican senate candidates helped.
I’m definitely much more concerned about Florida. The victory of Rick Scott…. I don’t know. I mean that speaks volumes. Also Florida is going to have 29 electoral votes. Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada combined have 20, i think, if the dems can run the floor with them.
…is can Obama get the monstrous African-American turnout he got in 2008. If he can’t and turnout goes down to more historical levels I don’t feel very good depending on say Virginia on election night.
On the other hand I’m not ready to give up on Arizona just yet. Just remember the example of California where Pete Wilson used a similar tactic as Jan Brewer to get re-elected. Worked great for one election and turned against the Republicans subsequently.
doesn’t seem to be very large on the electoral vote. If Obama repeats his 2008 performance, he loses 6 electoral votes. If it turns out to be a nailbiter (GOP takes OH, FL, IN, NC, VA), it’s still a net 6 electoral votes that have left our column. For all the talk of electoral shifting creating a permanent GOP advantage, it doesn’t seem to be very significant, especially when you start allowing for the possibility of us becoming competitive in formerly red states.
If we get Arizona and Georgia, then it’s only net 4 electoral votes we’ve lost from a similar arrangement in 2008. If we start being competitive in Texas (which may very well happen 10 years from now), then we’ve entirely erased the “advantage” the GOP has gotten from electoral votes shifting.
I think the numbers at this point give the chance of be a little more optimistic.
Taking the same numeric model what I use for the last cycle, my current rating would be the next:
SAFE D
01 Hawaii
02 Vermont
03 Rhode Island
04 New York
05 Maryland
06 Illinois
07 Delaware
08 California
09 Connecticut
10 Maine ?
11 Washington ?
12 Oregon ?
13 New Jersey
14 New Mexico
LIKELY D
15 Massachusetts (Safe if not Romney)
LEANS D
16 Colorado
17 Minnesota
18 Michigan
19 New Hampshire
20 Nevada
21 Iowa
22 Wisconsin
23 Virginia
24 Pennsylvania
25 Florida
26 Ohio
TOSS UP
27 North Carolina
28 Indiana ?
LEANS R
29 Georgia ?
30 Arizona
31 South Carolina
32 Missouri
LIKELY R
33 North Dakota ?
33 Montana
34 Tennessee
35 Mississippi ?
36 Nebraska
37 Kansas ?
SAFE R
The rest.
With regard to Missouri:
1. How significant is the rural vote in Missouri?
2. Do rural counties there tend to have heavier turnouts than the Dem bastions of Jackson County, St. Louis City & County?
3. Is the rural vote strong enough that, when combined with those in conservative suburbs and smaller cities, usually put GOP statewide and federal candidates to the top?
And a side-note:
Can anyone explain how liberal/conservative are the different suburbs of St. Louis and Kansas City and the extent they affect statewide election outcomes? Thanks!
31, Male, Dem-tilting Independent, MS-02 (Hometown FL-19)
New Hamphire: Can we really say that this state is trending to the Republicans? Ayotte crushed Hodes, but wasn’t that in part due to him? She was already elected statewide, so it wasn’t as if she was a novice like Ron Johnson. Lynch won, although by a much smaller margin than last time, and Kuster came very close to winning in an obviously terrible year for Democrats. Plus, the number of votes Democrats have gotten for the last few cycles has gone up each time, while the total number of votes for the Republicans has gone down, despite that party running His Awesome Maverick Majesty John McCain.
Virginia and North Carolina: In these states in particular, I’d say it comes down which candidates the Republicans nominate. I’m not sure why people seem to think Huckabee would do so well here. It’s possible, I guess, but not very obvious, and perhaps Romney, if his religion doesn’t kill him, will have the same sort of appeal McCain had. But a lot of the candidates that aren’t their own brands, like McCain was, will have to run very far to the right in the primaries to win, and while that should get them a solid percentage of the vote, it could also give them a low ceiling. I’m kind of thinking of how Jesse Helms never received beyond 55 percent of the vote in his last few elections, despite the strong Republican lean of the state at the time.
I’d also be curious to know how many more people are waiting to be brought into the system, particularly black voters. Unless there’s been some huge change since 2008 (after the previous work of the Obama campaign, I mean), Virginia has about 300,000 unregistered black voters and North Carolina still has about 400,000. A lot of the low-hanging fruit has surely been picked, and the coalition to reelect Obama will certainly need to go beyond one group, but I mention these figures because it’s a pool of voters that’s massive and basically off limits to Republicans.
South Carolina and Georgia: If I had to guess, I’d say that the Obama campaign will target these states, at least initially, for the same reasons he’ll target Virginia and North Carolina. There is, simply put, untapped potential here, and it’d probably a good idea to see if we can both flip a few House seats in 2012 and prepare for Senate elections in 2014. Georgia’s probably more likely than South Carolina, but not by much.
Florida: I’m less worried about this state than other people. Obama could of course lose it, but it won’t be by much if he does, unless he’s losing badly nationwide. But if you look at the exit polls, his entire margin of victory came from non-white voters. He received the same share of the white vote that Kerry did, which makes me think we’re seeing something of a floor. It’s possible to expand or lose support, but if it didn’t change overall from 2004 to 2008, I’m not sure why it would from 2008 to 2012. Plus, black and Hispanic voters still seem very positive when it comes to his presidency. Perhaps if the Republicans nominate a Hispanic, they could move the needle a few points, but I don’t see anyone seeing the sort of gains that Bush saw from 2000 to 2000 with non-whites.
Plus, there are about 600,000 unregistered black voters in the state and about another 600,000 unregistered Hispanics. It’s not clear how much the latter will help us if it’s a sub-group that tends to lean more Republican, but if it’s as Democratic as Hispanics overall were in the state, it’s a rich source of potential votes. Of course, it’s not nearly as rich as the unregistered black voting pool. Even in a good year for them like 2004, Republicans, through Bush, managed to get only 14 percent of the black vote, so again, it’s a pool that that pretty much don’t have access to.
All of the usual caveats apply, but if his campaign can successfully register these two groups, I’m not sure it’s possible for Obama to lose the state.
North and South Dakota: I imagine he’ll try to contest these two far more than he did in 2008, at least at the outset, because they are cheap–especially North Dakota, since it has an open senate seat.
Montana: The same reasoning applies to this state. It’s probably very cheap to contest the state, and there’s a competitive senate race as well as a very possibly competitive House race.
Arizona: If there’s one state besides Georgia that is likely to get more attention in 2012 than it did in 2008, this is it. It’s not clear how SB1070 is affecting the state’s politics, to me at least, but unless it becomes increasingly obvious that it’s a lead weight to the Democrats, it’s worth trying to flip it. The fact that there is an open senate seat makes that even truer.
was only a blowout because Crist and Meek split the non-Rubio vote nearly 50-50. Rubio didn’t even break 50%.
Using the Electoral College Calculator at http://www.grayraven.com/ec/ to find Obama with 258 EV’s, 200 GOP, and 80 tossup. However, these are numbers from the past decade and must be adjusted for reapportionment. On Obama’s side, NV and WA each gain one while IL, MA, MI, NJ, and PA each lose one and New York loses two, for a net loss of five. On the GOP side, Texas gains four, AZ, GA, SC, and UT each gain one, and LA and MO each lose one, for a net gain of six. This leaves the score at 253 Obama, 206 GOP, and 79 tossup. This is not as big a change as some may have thought.
That leaves Obama 17 EV’s to go and the Republican 64. Virginia with Iowa or NH would be sufficient, as would Ohio or CO, Iowa, and NH. I stand by Virginia or Colorado deciding it if it’s too close for comfort. I hope that Obama can get Tim Kaine into the VA Senate race and we can regroup in time in NH.