Fast-growing Nevada is adding a fourth congressional district in this round of redistricting. The C.W. says Republicans, who control the governor’s mansion, and Democrats, who control both houses of the State Legislature, will work toward a 2-2 compromise, although the solidity of one Republican seat may be dubious. I tend to think a 2-1-1 map is likelier, with the swing district favoring the incumbent.
Forth Eorlingas:
Now, uh, before getting deep into this, I should note that unlike some of our Nevadan SSPers, I haven’t memorized the home addresses of every sitting congressperson in Nevada or every prospective candidate for the new NV-04 or a (likely) vacancy in NV-01 or NV-02. So, this map may need some tweaking. Just let me know, help me out.
I’ll start out of order, because the way districts are numbered in Nevada is weird.
NV-02 (green)
Rep. Dean Heller, the Republican congressman for this district, is widely expected to launch a primary challenge to sleazy Sen. Ensign, but he seems to be crossing his fingers for a retirement in the meantime. The trend for Republicans in Northern Nevada is…not great. Washoe County is quickly becoming another Democratic stronghold in the state, and the surrounding counties appear to be on a blue trend. Elko, in northeastern Nevada, is a Republican stronghold, and the minor population center there combined with the still-reddish sprawl around Reno and Carson City should keep this district on the Republican side of the PVI line, but it’s uncomfortably close to EVEN PVI and there doesn’t seem to be a lot Republicans can do about it. If Heller runs, he’ll probably retain it, but if he goes for Senate, it’s going to be very close in a presidential year. Tossup/Tilt Republican.
NV-01 (blue)
I think the expectation is that Democratic Rep. Shelly Berkley will run for Senate, potentially setting up a marquee battle with Heller, her colleague in the Nevada congressional delegation. I’m pretty sure her house is included in this district either way – but the person I had in mind while drawing this district is Steven Horsford, the term-limited Nevada Senate Majority Leader. Horsford, if elected, would become the first African American congressman from the Mountain West in…a while. The racial breakdown, for the curious, is 52.3% white, 13.4% black, 20.2% Latino, and 10% Asian. Safe Democratic.
NV-03 (yellow)
This district is represented by freshman Rep. Joe Heck, the Republican who put Southern-talkin’ Democrat Dina Titus on ice last year even as Sen. Reid stomped nutty Tea Party conservative Sharron Angle by a five-point spread. Interestingly enough, Heck would see his district balloon out substantially to eclipse NV-02 in size under this map. While the vast majority of this district’s population is in Clark County, the little fraction that comes out of the rest of the state has a huge geographic footprint, because the cow counties are so underpopulated (this may have something to do with them being a jumble of arid desert, craggy mountain ranges, and current and former nuclear test sites). Heck, who lives in Henderson, gets the lion’s share of exurban Clark County, as well as bedroom communities in Nye County, and the more conservative Las Vegas suburbs. Titus has been redistricted out, but she could always move back, I suppose. Likely Republican.
NV-04 (red)
Nevada is getting a brand-new district, and that means at least one open-seat contest next year. Potential Democratic candidates for this VRA seat (31% white, 10.1% black, 49.2% Latino, 6.7% Asian) include Ruben Kihuen, a Mexican American state senator with an independent streak; John Oceguera, the term-limited Speaker of the State Assembly, who would become the country’s only Native American congressman if elected; Richard Carrillo, also a member of the State Assembly; and Dina Titus, the former NV-03 representative. This district should be solid ground for the Democrats, whoever runs, although I think a Latino Democrat would be favored in the primary. Safe Democratic.
of OK-4 is part native american. what percent is oceguera?
and your Vegas arrangement looks good. Even better then the previous map. I am clueless on where the AA community in Vegas located. I guess 13.4% is about as good as it gets % wise in CD1? Either way the AA vote would be pushing 25% in a primary for CD1. Horsford, however, apparently has very good ties to other democrats in the area and would be a potent candidate in an open seat situation.
The Cow counties, some of them, have to be attached to Clark for CD3 and I guess this arrangement is as good as any of them. I think the GOP would sign off on this map and I think the democrats would pleased. Two seats would have a GOP tilt while the other two would be fairly certain D seats.
This map has a little bit of something for everybody in NV and this map could easily be passed with bipartisan support.
Is a district like your NV-03 allowed? Just asking because I have not seen a district that completely surrounds another district(s).
but i didn’t want to use a diary for this, and it involves West Coast redistricting. you can make a majority-minority VAP district in Washington
This is what I came up with. The Reno district (off map) is identical to yours except that it has all of Lyon county. The blue district isn’t much different from the current NV1. NV3 (purple) and NV4 (red) here are probably both swing districts but NV4 is probably more Dem-friendly. NV3 has all the other rural counties as it does on your map.
NV1 is 31% white, NV2 69%, NV3 61%, NV4 55%.
I suspect that the Dems might be better off maximizing the number of competitive districts as they will probably have a structural disadvantage nationally (more R+X than D+X districts overall).
Of Nevada maps I’ve seen on here… At least until I reveal mine. 😉
You definitely did a good job of creating 2 seats Democrats can probably win, plus 2 seats that Republicans can agree to for now, but might lose at some point this decade should they nominate the wrong candidates as Democrats enjoy another “wave election”.
However, the final map legislators actually agree to probably won’t look like this. For one, should Steven Horsford decide to run for Congress, there’s really no ideal seat for him. NV-04 doesn’t have enough of his territory, and NV-01 has too many affluent Republicans and independents who just don’t like him. While State Senators Allison Copening (D-Summerlin) and Ruben Kihuen (D-North Las Vegas) are seen as rising stars in the party, I suspect party leaders think it’s too soon to reward them already with shiny new Congressional Districts tailor made for them.
Your NV-02 and NV-03 will probably keep the GOPers happy, but I suspect certain NV Dems won’t be happy with the NV-01 and NV-04 boundaries proposed in this map.
with all the maps presented here on this tread and the insights that were offered.