CA Majority Minority Districts using CVAP

The US Census release last month of Citizen Voting Age Population allowed me to run all the Assembly, Senate and Congressional districts to find their estimated CVAP Latino, CVAP African American and CVAP Asian.  

The news that stands out is that there are 20 districts, 9 Assembly, 5 Senate and 6 Congressional, that are Majority-Minority – and ALL are Latino.  

See all the numbers here: Http://

Here are the highlights for Congressionals:

Highest Latino CVAP

38 (D) Napolitano 65.3%

34 (D) Roybal-Allard 64.8%

32 (D) Chu 53.6%

39 (D) Sanchez 51.8%

43 (D) Baca 51.7%

20 (D) Costa 50.5%

31 (D) Becerra 49.9%

51 (D) Filner 47.8%

Highest African American CVAP

35 (D) Waters 43.6%

33 (D) Watson 35.7%

37 (D) Richardson 31.2%

9 (D) Lee 25.3%

Highest Asian CVAP

12 (D) Speier 31.8%

13 (D) Stark 31.3%

15 (D) Honda 29.1%

16 (D) Lofgren 28.0%

8 (D) Pelosi 27.0%

29 (D) Schiff 24.1%

32 (D) Chu 23.5%

Even though California has a commission process with its own set of rules, the first rule is “follow the VRA” which would suggest that they would first work to keep these districts from retrogressing.

This strategy, in fact, was exactly what the Republican-leaning Rose Institute suggested: Start with the VRA seats, then draw the rest of the state with the new rules.

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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