You know, I've got to say, I find it interesting that so many people think that Virginia must be destined to have a shored up 8-3 map (with Gerry Connolly's 11th district being only marginally Democratic!) With Democrats still in control of the senate, I find it hard to believe that they're just going to just allow the Republicans to hold so many seats (and just shore them up). This map is probably not the one that gets made (I don't know where incumbents live and as such I probably drew a few out of where they live), but I think it's a lot closer to what Democrats are going to try for rather than just allowing Republicans to strengthen all of their seats. So my goal here was to keep 5 Republican incumbents, shore up Gerry Connolly, weaken Scott Rigell, and make Frank Wolf's district more Democratic (thus giving us the seat when he retires).
With that said, my vision for Virginia below the fold:
(Parentheses denote previous district numbers)
VA-05 (Yellow, Robert Hurt – R)
Dem 46.7% Rep 53.3% (Dem 47.3% Rep 52.7%)
Obama 48.2% McCain 51.8% (Obama 48.5% McCain 51.5%)
Black 22%, White 71.4%
Population 727,824
Notes: Not very much has changed here, though what changes happened favor the Republicans (the change might be slight, but Tom Perriello would have lost against Virgil Goode in 2008, small changes can make big differences). Robert Hurt probably won't complain too much about this district. (Likely R)
VA-06 (Blue-Green, Bob Goodlatte – R)
Dem 40.9% Rep 59.1% (Dem 42.1% Rep 57.9%)
Obama 42.3% McCain 57.7% (Obama 43.2% McCain 56.8%)
Population 727,426
Notes: In order to make VA-10 more Democratic, I needed to have this district absorb the more Republican parts of NoVA, but given that either way VA-10 needed to shrink, it's a good bet that something like this would have happened anyways. The district is heavily Republican and still retains Roanoke so Goodlatte can continue being re-elected indefinitely). (Safe R)
VA-07 (Grey, Eric Cantor – R)
Dem 42.2% Rep 57.8% (Dem 43.3% Rep 56.7%)
Obama 45.2% McCain 54.8% (Obama 46.6% McCain 53.4%)
Black 15%, White 74.5%
Population 726,655
Notes: Assuming Cantor still lives in the district (which is likely given that I didn't change the district much) he's going to be very happy with its configuration, he becomes safer now. (Safe R)
VA-09 (Bright blue, Morgan Griffith – R)
District profile (old numbers)
Dem 44.2% Rep 55.8% (Dem 43.7% Rep 56.3%)
Obama 41% McCain 59% (Obama 40.3% McCain 59.7%)
Population 727,973
Notes: So VA-09 doesn't really change too much, the district becomes somewhat more Democratic, although I doubt it matters much, as it's still going to be pretty safe for Morgan Griffith, unless Rick Boucher decides to run again. Safe R (Leans R if Boucher runs).
VA-01 (Blue, Rob Wittman – R)
Dem 42.5% Rep 57.5% (Dem 44.8% Rep 55.2%)
Obama 45.7% McCain 54.3% (Obama 48.4% McCain 51.6%)
Black 15.7% White 73.1%
Population 727,330
Notes: This map shores up Wittman, and ensures that even in an open seat situation it'll stay with Republicans (Safe R)
VA-02 (Green, Robert Hurt – R)
Dem 52.4% Rep 47.6% (Dem 49.1% Rep 50.9%)
Obama 56.5% McCain 43.5% (Obama 52.4% McCain 47.6%)
Black 27.4%, White 57.2%
Population 727,531
Notes: I'm not going to lie, this district is meant to make life difficult for Scott Rigell, and I think I succeeded. To be honest, I doubt that Glenn Nye would have beaten Rigell in 2010, but then again, another Democrat could probably do it, particularly with Obama on the ballot. (Toss-up against Rigell/Likely D Open)
VA-04 (Red, Randy Forbes – R)
Dem 46% Rep 54% (Dem 48.2% Rep 51.8%)
Obama 48.3% McCain 51.7% (Obama 51% McCain 49%)
Black 29.5% White 61.6%
Population 726,491
Notes: This district shores up Forbes somewhat, it goes from a district that Obama won by two to won he lost by two and a half. In an open seat in the right year this district could be trouble for the Republicans, but even then they'd be favored. (Likely R)
VA-03 (Purple, Robert Scott – D)
Dem 70.1% Rep 29.9% (Dem 71.3% Rep 28.7%)
Obama 74.8% McCain 25.2% (Obama 75.7% McCain 24.3%)
Black 52.5%, White 36.6%
Population 727,748
Notes: Well this monstrosity is a carry-over from the last map, to be honest, I'm not sure if the VRA requires this district to be majority-black or simply majority-minority but I kept it like this just to be safe. If I hadn't there's a good possibility I could have made the fourth more Democratic (probably not enough to give Forbes any problems, but enough to make it competitive in an open seat).
It’ll be a bit longer before the write-up is complete, in the meantime feel free to comment on what’s there.
and I appreciate you posting it.
The problem for the D’s is that a federal panel would be unlikely to okay this map. I am even sure enough state senators on the D side would vote for this map.
I think the assumption is that Congressional redistricting has, by tradition, been worked out by the delegation itself. The last time there was any real pressure for gerrymandering was when Virgil Goode was technically still a Democrat and there were some threats made to screw him over. He switched and the rest is history. The Democrats in the State Senate have made no sound of caring about the Congressional lines, either publicly or in private. They care only about the Senate lines and would rather get a deal that screws the State House and the Congressional lines in order to secure a Democratic gerrymander of the State Senate than maybe block everything and get a court redistricting of all three. And the skills of the Senate Democrats in negotiating redistricting have come into question given that their leadership was sleep as the wheel when the GOP snuck in some abortion restrictions right under their noses.
I think your numbers/predictions for the 5th are wrong. You’ve taken away parts of counties where Perriello ran behind Obama (Henry, Martinsville, Franklin) and added areas where he probably wound have run ahead based on where he outperformed Obama (Lynchburg, Amherst, and the parts of Augusta and Waynesboro you throw in). But I can’t see how the 5th is up to the right population size.
Splitting the Eastern Shore was a curious move that I’m not sure could ever happen. Then again, my VA map was absurd so I’m not one to talk about what’s realistic. Good map.
What’s interesting is that there a few Dem-friendly precincts in the Northern Neck area that could be brought into a harshly gerrymandered tidewater district crossing the Chesapeake.