Now that it’s 2011, the redistricting games will soon begin in earnest, with more detailed Census data expected in the coming weeks and some states holding spring legislative sessions to deal with drawing new maps. Long ago I planned to do state-by-state rundowns of the redistricting process as soon as 2010 election results and Census reapportionment were clear. Now that time has arrived, and it’s time to look at Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, Nevada, and New Hampshire.
Previous diary on Alabama, Arizona, and Arkansas
Previous diary on California, Colorado, and Connecticut
Previous diary on Florida, Georgia, and Hawaii
Previous diary on Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa
Previous diary on Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, and Maryland
Previous diary on Massachusetts, Michigan, and Minnesota
The rest below the fold…
Mississippi
Districts: 4
Who’s in charge? Split (GOP Governor and Senate, Dem House)
Is that important? Nope
The legislature is engaged in moderately high-stakes drama over legislative redistricting, which must be done before the state’s qualifying deadline later this spring. Congressional remapping will, by contrast, be quite simple, with a plan that expands Bennie Thompson’s 2nd to pick up as many majority-black areas as possible and protects newbie GOP incumbents Alan Nunnelee in the north and Steven Palazzo in the south.
Missouri
Districts: 8 (down from 9 in 2002)
Who’s in charge? Split (Dem Governor, GOP Legislature)
Is that important? Yes
I have long expected the legislature — which has almost enough Republicans to override a veto by Gov. Jay Nixon — to dismantle Russ Carnahan’s suburban St. Louis 3rd District and split it up between Lacy Clay’s 1st, Todd Akin’s 2nd, and Jo Ann Emerson’s 8th, since Clay’s district must expand and the two Republicans are safe enough to accommodate a few new Democratic voters. However, renewed chatter about Akin running for the Senate against Claire McCaskill is muddying things a bit. With a 6-2 map feasible — all major areas of Democratic strength concentrated into the 1st and the Kansas City-based 5th — it’s hard to believe Republicans won’t go for it, but it may be too early to declare Carnahan odd man out after all. If Akin does seek a promotion to the Capitol’s north side, the legislature will still probably draw a less hospitable seat for Carnahan, to make that 6-2 split plausible.
Nebraska
Districts: 3
Who’s in charge? Republicans (de facto; legislature is officially nonpartisan)
Is that important? I suppose
Jeff Fortenberry’s Lincoln-area 1st and Lee Terry’s Omaha-based 2nd will contract in area to accommodate the slow-growing rural 3rd, but that is the height of drama here. The only notable thing about Nebraska’s congressional districts in 2012 is that electoral votes will probably no longer be apportioned by CD, denying Obama that Omaha electoral vote he won in 2008.
Nevada
Districts: 4 (up from 3 in 2002)
Who’s in charge? Split (GOP Governor, Dem Legislature)
Is that important? Very
Here we have a very ambitious legislature that would love to carve up Nevada as never before, with one rural/suburban Republican vote-sink for Joe Heck and three Dem-leaning seats (two in Las Vegas and environs, one stretching from Reno down to northern Clark County). The congressional delegation is deeply in flux, with Dean Heller running for the Senate, Shelley Berkley contemplating a Senate bid, and a new seat being added that will almost certainly lean Democratic. I have to assume Gov. Brian Sandoval will veto any plan that does not preserve two Republican seats, one in the north where Heller used to be and one for Heck, but with state Treasurer Kate Marshall considering a run for the 2nd, even that former stipulation is up in the air. The upside here will be for the Democrats, regardless.
New Hampshire
Districts: 2
Who’s in charge? Split (Dem Governor, GOP Legislature)
Is that important? Not a bit
New Hampshire’s congressional districts really haven’t changed much in living memory, simply trading towns based on Census figures every ten years. The GOP legislature may try to draw very friendly lines for itself, but as we saw in the last decade, New Hampshire politics functions as a series of tidal wave pendulum swings, if I may mix metaphors. Independents are unpredictable and fickle, and tend to break hard against one party or the other.
were near mirror images-vote wise for years. In 1968 Nixon got 53% in CD1 and 52% in CD2. The idea of this map, a GOP idea, was to divide the state roughly down the middle and to divide Manchester & Nashua between the two districts. In days of old these two towns were the big Democrat source of votes in the state. Dividing them out would maximize GOP chances to win both seats.
Nashau has held its liberal core more then Manchester plus rural areas has drifted a bit leftward over the years. So CD2 is clearly the more liberal/democratic seat now. Redistricting will certanly not change that much this year.
Nebraska is no longer awarding electoral awards based on the winner in each CD? News to me, last I heard there was a bill about that, guess it passed and was signed into law.