Public Policy Polling (PDF) (3/6-9, “usual Missouri Republican primary voters,” no trendlines):
Sarah Steelman (R): 31
Todd Akin (R): 24
Ed Martin (R): 9
Ann Wagner (R): 2
Undecided/other: 34Sarah Steelman (R): 37
Ed Martin (R): 18
Ann Wagner (R): 11
Undecided/other: 34
(MoE: ±4.9%)
I don’t have much to say here except that the primary vote share (either with or without Akin) almost perfectly correlates with how well known these candidates are – as in, a correlation of 1. Put another way, if you add each person’s “don’t know” share on the favorable/unfavorable question to their vote share on the horserace question, you get just about the same number for all candidates. This says to me that Ed Martin has a lot of work to do to get his name out there, and that Todd Akin (who has only just now ramped up to “considering” status) should not be scared off by Sarah Steelman’s early lead.
And just for fun:
Mike Huckabee (R): 29
Newt Gingrich (R): 19
Sarah Palin (R): 14
Mitt Romney (R): 13
Ron Paul (R): 7
Mitch Daniels (R): 4
Tim Pawlenty (R): 3
Haley Barbour (R): 2
Other/undecided: 10
(MoE: ±4.9%)
I couldn’t imagine better numbers for setting up the possibility of a ferocious GOP primary that leaves its victor battered. There’s something in it to encourage each one of these folks to run.
Steelman has her lead, Akin is a close second and does well when voters know both candidates. But Martin & Wagner can both see that there’s no clear leader, which makes it possible for them to get some breathing room, especially since both are pretty good fund-raisers. And the two second-tier options appear well-poised to be able to siphon off voters who aren’t particularly fond of either top candidate, as evidenced by how much they improve when Akin is out of the equation.
Cat fud, baby. Learn it, know it, love it.
If Akin runs for Senate (which I find almost laughable) then Wagner would run for his house seat. Best case for me whould be that scenario and Akin losing the primary (I think he’s a huge douche, personal reasons…).
These polls arent’ really that useful with everyone so unknown, the amount of money and establishment support Wagner brings to the table would probably cut of Steelman at the knees, I’d even go so far as to call her my “favorite” to win a contested primary if everyone (exect Akin) were to run. I’d also bet that 1 of Martin/Steelman would eventually bow out and run for LG w/ Kinder rather than risk getting schellacked in the primary.
If McCaskills “airplane woes” get the best of her (I hope they don’t), who are the Dems that could step up and run instead?