NY and ME: Population by CD

Today’s the last day of Census data releases, meaning we have the complete set of all 50 states now. The Census Bureau released some data summarizing the entire nation, including what you’d think was the single most important bit of all, considering the way they hyped the announcement: the new population center of the U.S., still in south-central Missouri, but moving 30 miles to the southwest, now near Plato, MO. Perhaps more interestingly, they summarized the country’s demographic change as a whole: that starts with the nation’s Hispanic population crossing the 50 million mark, now up to almost 17% of the nation’s population. Hispanics and Asians both grew at a 43% rate, and people checking “2 or more” races rose at a 32% rate. The non-Hispanic white share of the population fell from 69% to 64%. They also found a country that’s more urban than ever before, with 84% of the country living in metropolitan areas now.

I know you’re all champing at the bit to find out what happens in Maine, but there’s this other state called “New… Something” that we should probably get through first. New York is one of only two states to lose two seats, from 29 down to 27. (Ohio was the other one.) New York’s new target is 717,707, up from about 654K in 2000. Thanks to a few hundred votes in a couple of state Senate races that tipped that chamber’s balance, the GOP managed to hold on to one leg of the redistricting trifecta, meaning that instead of a shot at a 26-1 Dem map, there’s probably just going to be a shared-pain map instead with a GOP loss upstate and a Dem loss in the NYC metro area. That’s despite the fact that New York City itself actually grew a bit, to 8.175 million, still by far the nation’s largest city. (There are moves afoot toward an independent redistricting commission, but this doesn’t seem likely to happen.)

In general, the heaviest losses were in the western part of Upstate, with the state’s two biggest losers the Dem-held 27th (Buffalo) and 28th (Rochester). On the other hand, losses also popped up rather patchily in parts of the outer boroughs (especially the 11th in the black parts of Brooklyn… without much seniority, Yvette Clarke may wind up with the shortest straw among the NYC delegation) and Long Island (Peter King’s 3rd… which would be a prime target for the 2nd seat to evaporate, if only the Dems controlled the trifecta here). The big gainers were both urban (Jerry Nadler’s 8th, probably fueled not so much by growth in Manhattan as among Orthodox families in Borough Park in Brooklyn) and exurban (Nan Hayworth’s 19th, at the outermost reaches of the NYC metro area).

While none of the districts in New York seem to be undergoing the kind of rapid demographic transformation that threatens the red/blue balance in any place like we’ve seen in Texas or California, a few districts are worth looking at just as an indicator of what an interesting tapestry New York City is. Take the 5th for instance (another possibility for wipeout, given its strange position straddling Nassau County and Queens, and Gary Ackerman’s non-entity-ness): it’s moved from 44% non-Hispanic white, 5% non-Hispanic black, 24% non-Hispanic Asian, and 24% Hispanic, to 36% white, 4% black, 33% Asian, and 26% Hispanic, close to an Asian-plurality, thanks to growth in the Asian community in Flushing. A few districts in New York City are getting whiter, thanks to hipsters and gentrifiers: the 11th moved from 21% white and 58% black to 26% white and 53% black, while the 12th moved from 23% white and 49% Hispanic to 27% white and 45% Hispanic. The Harlem-based 15th went from 16% white, 30% black, and 48% Hispanic, to 21% white, 26% black, and 46% Hispanic, while the remarkably complex, Queens-based 7th went the other direction, from 28% white, 16% black, 13% Asian, and 40% Hispanic to 21% white, 16% black, 16% Asian, and 44% Hispanic.

District Rep. Population Deviation
NY-01 Bishop (D) 705,559 (12,148)
NY-02 Israel (D) 679,893 (37,814)
NY-03 King (R) 645,508 (72,199)
NY-04 McCarthy (D) 663,407 (54,300)
NY-05 Ackerman (D) 670,130 (47,577)
NY-06 Meeks (D) 651,764 (65,943)
NY-07 Crowley (D) 667,632 (50,075)
NY-08 Nadler (D) 713,512 (4,195)
NY-09 Weiner (D) 660,306 (57,401)
NY-10 Towns (D) 677,721 (39,986)
NY-11 Clarke (D) 632,408 (85,299)
NY-12 Velazquez (D) 672,358 (45,349)
NY-13 Grimm (R) 686,525 (31,182)
NY-14 Maloney (D) 652,681 (65,026)
NY-15 Rangel (D) 639,873 (77,834)
NY-16 Serrano (D) 693,819 (23,888)
NY-17 Engel (D) 678,558 (39,149)
NY-18 Lowey (D) 674,825 (42,882)
NY-19 Hayworth (R) 699,959 (17,748)
NY-20 Gibson (R) 683,198 (34,509)
NY-21 Tonko (D) 679,193 (38,514)
NY-22 Hinchey (D) 679,297 (38,410)
NY-23 Owens (D) 664,245 (53,462)
NY-24 Hanna (R) 657,222 (60,485)
NY-25 Buerkle (R) 668,869 (48,838)
NY-26 Vacant 674,804 (42,903)
NY-27 Higgins (D) 629,271 (88,436)
NY-28 Slaughter (D) 611,838 (105,869)
NY-29 Reed (R) 663,727 (53,980)
Total: 19,378,102

Now for the maine event! (Rim shot.) Maine’s a lot like Rhode Island and New Hampshire in that the long-standing boundary between its two districts rarely seems to budge much, and this year won’t be any different. Maine’s target is 664,181, up from 637K in 2000. The disparity of a little more than 4,000 people means things won’t change much; the Republicans control the redistricting process this year but there’s not a lot of fertile material here for them to try to make swingy ME-02 much redder.

District Rep. Population Deviation
ME-01 Pingree (D) 668,515 4,334
ME-02 Michaud (D) 659,846 (4,335)
Total: 1,328,361

68 thoughts on “NY and ME: Population by CD”

  1. It’s amazing how the the media distorts or screws up data.  In the New York Observer today, there was an article by NYPIRG, the New York Public Interest Research Group, that said that downstate New York would lose both of the 2 seats being lost in New York State.  (It considered downstate to be Westchester, New York City, and Long Island.)   It very encouraging to see that you are far superior in your abilities to discern data.  The present New York State map clearly shows that 3 seats, the 17th, 18th, and 19th all straddle the downstate/upstate divide.  There are a lot more people in the portions of the 17th and 18th districts that are upstate, than there are in the portion of the 19th district that is partly in the downstate region.  (The 19th takes in the far northern reaches of Westchester county, the least populated part of the county.  There are presently 10 districts entirely upstate, the 20th -29th.   NYPIRG says that after reapportionment, upstate will have 10.3 seats.  So, based on their numbers, upstate losses a little over one seat, and downstate losses part of a seat.

    A real upstate New Yorker would never consider the lower Hudson valley as being part of upstate.  In the end, downstate and the Hudson valley will be ahead of the upstate region overall, more so than they already are.

  2. Why don’t they have the balls to ask for what Virginia did?  Allow GOP to gerrymander Senate (again), but say they’ll do whatever they want congressionally.

    Ugh, cannot believe Antoine Thompson lost a 70% Obama Senate district…still.

  3. Oh, for what could have been.  Would have been real easy to have gerrymandered 1 super-GOP upstate vote sink.  Still, with divided control I wonder just how safe the rest of the upstate GOP delegation can expect to be.  Regardless of how they draw the districts, Obama will win most of them.

  4. but Lee’s seat could be chewed up. You would probably need to have Owen take Syracuse city and have CD25 stretch to take in all of Genesse county. CD22 & CD24 would have to move westward as well.  

    I guess someone has to get the short end in NY upstate.  

  5. so the thin Republican majorities in the legislature will probably disappear before then, as the entire legislature is up next year.

  6. I believe it is the poorest in the country, but it had the highest population growth behind the two districts mentioned in the original post.  That is an odd combination.

  7. Higgins’ NY-27 and Slaughter’s NY-28 (the earmuffs) are the two smallest districts in the state (population wise).  They currently split Buffalo in half.  I see three options:

    1) Give the rest of Buffalo to Slaughter.  This will effectively erase Higgins’ NY-27 as he can’t win without it.

    2) Give the rest of Buffalo to Higgins.  This will make Higgins safe for the forseeable future but make Slaughter’s district more vulnerable, although still with a Dem lean.

    3) Leave Buffalo split and try to absorb NY-29 with NY-27 and NY-28.  This will weaken both Slaughter and Higgins, and Higgins still might not survive in this configuration (Slaughter will).

    Overall, I think the best option for Dems is #2, but Slaughter might not go for it, and what Slaughter wants, Slaughter gets.

  8. and at DailyKos using the county level data to give a quick review of what the loss of 2 congressional districts might mean in New York. As soon as dave’s tool is updated with the new data I’ll draw the maps.

  9. as though it would never be done due to being to politically risky, there could be a super-safe democratic district and a slighly republican one in Maine. Anyone else see it just as a posibility?  

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