Redistricting Arizona U.S. House Districts

AZ-01 (Gosar): 57% White, 21% Native American, 18% Hispanic, 1% Black, 1% Asian – leans Republican but is winnable for Democrats


AZ-02 (Franks): 65% White, 28% Hispanic, 2% Black, 2% Asian, 1% Native American (connects Prescott with Yuma) – Safe Republican


AZ-03 (Quayle): 75% White, 16% Hispanic, 4% Asian, 3% Black, 1% Native American – Safe Republican


AZ-04 (Pastor): 56% Hispanic, 31% White, 6% Black, 3% Asian, 2% Native American (Hispanic VRA district) – Safe Democratic


AZ-05 (Schweikert): 49% White, 35% Hispanic, 6% Black, 4% Asian, 3% Native American (Tempe; connects a small Indian reservation with liberal whites) – Lean to Likely Democratic I think


AZ-06 (Flake): 81% White, 12% Hispanic, 3% Asian, 2% Black, 1% Native American – Safe Republican


AZ-07 (Grijalva): 53% Hispanic, 33% White, 5% Black, 5% Native American, 2% Asian (VRA District) – probably safe Democratic


AZ-08 (Giffords): 66% White, 25% Hispanic, 3% Black, 3% Asian, 1% Native American  – Safe for Giffords if she runs again; if she doesn’t the Republicans have a good chance of picking this seat up


AZ-09 (New Seat): 69% White, 20% Hispanic, 3.5% Black 2.5% Asian, 1% Native American – Safe Republican


Phoenix close-up (AZ-01 – Gray, AZ-02 – Light Pink, AZ-03 – Purple, AZ-04 – Light Gray, AZ-05 – Yellow, AZ-06 – Green, AZ-07 – Blue, AZ-08 – Neon Green, AZ-09 – Rose)


Tucson close-up


28 thoughts on “Redistricting Arizona U.S. House Districts”

  1. I like that you put Yuma in with AZ-02. It’s a white-majority, Republican county so it always seemed out of place in a Hispanic-majority, Democratic district.

    I think Schwiekert would probably run in your AZ-06, so there would be two open seats for the GOP (2, 9) and one for the Democrats (5.)

    How does Arizona redistrict again? This looks like a good commission map. If it’s partisan, I’m guessing the Republicans will try for 6-2-Giffords, but if it’s bipartisan 5-3-Giffords seems like a good compromise.

  2. see 2010 political data for this map.  I think both  majority minority  seats are apparently lower in hispanic % then their 2010 census numbers.  AZ7 looks to be several % more R then before.  That’s jut my eyeball guess.

  3. Are less Hispanic then they were, but I think that is OK. The white population in both is very low.

    And counterintuitively, I think the latino community in Arizona is better served being spread out a bit. And AZ Latinos aren’t as Democratic as nationally, but that may change in 2012.

  4. is running again! She will love my AZ-01.

    I wouldn’t be suprised if the Tucson majority, independent commission creates a map similar to mine.

  5. do one of two things

    1) Weaken Schweikert to the point he’d probably lose, but make the new 9th district solid GOP and based in a nearby area.

    2) Strengthen Schweikert considerably, but the new 9th district is a tossup.

    Everyone else seems to more or less tread water, those are the two districts that seem to be the focus of redistricting the most.

    I have yet to see a plausible map that assures Republicans of going 6-3 next year.  Whatever happens, it seems Democrats have a good shot at holding 4, or possibly even 5 districts if Kirkpatrick is successful at reclaiming AZ-01.

  6. , I’ve had the idea of taking Yuma from Grijalva’s district, but that requires his district to grab more of the hispanic area of Maricopa County, and I think the commission would view a southern az district as more in a community of interest than a pima/maricopa district. I could see if they took out some of the most non hispanic areas of Yuma, but not the whole bit.

    The two precincts in southern Pinal that are currently in Giffords district will not be broken off of northern Pima as they are considered part of the Tucson msa. It is unlikely that Sierra Vista and the D-M area of Tucson will be split since they certainly are a community of interest.

    As noted by previous commentators, the Hopi res will likely be separated from the Navajo. Your cd 1 is also missing a piece of the san carlos res, though that may be a limitation of daves ap.

    Your district 6 seems implausible. Eastern Mesa has more in common with other suburbs and exurbs nearby (Apache Junction, Gilbert, Queen Creek) then the far wealthier areas of Scottsdale, Fountain Hills and Paradise Valley.

    Although this is an interesting thought, I just can’t see it coming to pass.

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