This is the 2nd state in my redistricting series. Much like Ohio, Pennsylvania finds itself in a very similar situation heading into redistricting. The state is being redistricted by the Republicans, who hold the governorship and both the state house and state senate. However, there are even greater difficulties in the Keystone State. First off, Pennsylvania, unlike Ohio, is a mostly blue state, and is going to be a very tough challenge to maintain the Republicans 12-7 advantage, which they are going to try to make 12-6 by eliminating Mark Critz’s 12th district.
Ultimately, I wasn’t able to help every republican incumbent, but I did the best I could without ridiculous gerrymandering. I think PA republicans could be a little gun-shy about jacking up the map too much, seeing as they did that in 2000 and overreached horribly.
The good thing about Pennsylvania is that I have complete partisan numbers. So to the map:
District 1 – Robert Brady (D) – Dark Blue – Obama 82%, McCain 18% – This district is a 50% black VRA district, encompassing much of south and west Philadelphia as well as the blacker portions of Delaware County including Chester and Upper Darby. It’s a cinch for Brady and/or any Democrat.
District 2 – Chaka Fattah (D) – Dark Green – Obama 91%, McCain 9% – This is one of the most democratic districts in the nation. At 48% black it’s not quite black majority, but it’s also 19% hispanic and 6% asian, just 27% white.
District 3 – Mike Kelly (R) – Purple – Obama 48%, McCain 50% – This district is little changed, but now includes all of Butler County, which helps swing the seat a little more solidly toward the republicans and Kelly. It’s still vulnerable in unfavorable years, but should be a hold in an even election.
District 4 – Jason Altmire (D) – Red – Obama 45%, McCain 54% – The partisanship in district 4 really doesn’t change much. Altmire’s seat picks up some new areas in Allegheny and Westmoreland counties, and loses some territory further north. You’d think a republican would be able to win a 54% McCain district, but this area is ancestrally democratic and fairly blue at the local level. I balked at trying to make this district more red as doing so would be harmful to Kelly and/or Murphy.
District 5 – Glenn Thompson (R) – Gold – Obama 45%, McCain 53% – Here’s another seat that doesn’t change a whole lot, if anything it shifts eastward a little bit. It’s still an easy republican hold in all but the worst of years for the red team.
District 6 – Jim Gerlach (R) – Turquoise – Obama 52%, McCain 47% – Now things start heating up. Gerlach’s district changes quite a bit, and for me, is actually gerrymandered a bit (I know, crazy me). It takes in much of his base in upper Montgomery and Chester counties, lower Berks, and now includes a tendril back into republican Lebanon County. The result is that this seat goes from D+4 to R+1. That should be enough for Gerlach to hold the seat for sure. The PVI actually masks the republican lean a bit as most of this area is locally republican.
District 7 – Patrick Meehan (R) – Gray – Obama 54%, McCain 45% – This seat shifts a bit northward and westward away from downtown Philadelphia, taking in much of Delaware and Chester counties. The PVI is down from D+3 to D+1, but again, this area is locally very republican, so the PVI can be a little misleading. Meehan should do fairly well here unless if the year isn’t right.
District 8 – Mike Fitzpatrick (R) – Lavender – Obama 54%, McCain 45% – This seat has barely changed at all, and still includes all of Bucks County and parts of northeast Philadelphia. The Obama percentage drops by about 1%, which isn’t much, but in a swing district like this, every little bit helps.
District 9 – Bill Shuster (R) – Light Blue – Obama 40%, McCain 58% – Shuster’s seat shifts to the west a bit, into swingier territory closer to Pittsburgh, but still includes much of south central Pennsylvania. The PVI is down to about R+13, but that’s no problem for Shuster.
District 10 – Tom Marino (R) – Dark Pink – Obama 48%, McCain 51% – This district looks the same as before, but it’s not. All of Scranton has been thrown in with republican territory back further to the west. That results in the seat moving from R+8 to R+5, in what is mostly a trade-off with fellow republican Lou Barletta. I think Marino is a bit weak but should still hold a 51% McCain seat.
District 11 – Lou Barletta (R) – Light Green – Obama 53%, McCain 46% – This is the trade-off on the other side, Barletta gets a seat that is much more swingish and easier to defend by taking Scranton out of the district and adding more territory on the fringes of the seat. It goes from D+4 to Even. Barletta is a generally weak candidate so he’s going to need all the help he can get.
District 12 – Todd Platts (R) – Royal Blue – Obama 39%, McCain 60% – This is now the most republican seat in Pennsylvania. Platts’s seat moves to the west a little bit but is otherwise the same. No problem for Platts.
District 13 – Allyson Schwartz (D) – Pink – Obama 64%, McCain 36% – This seat is little changed except that it picks up some more territory in Philadelphia in order to help out other Republican incumbents in the Philly burbs. It’s now a D+11 district and safe for the democrats even in the shittiest of years.
District 14 – Mike Doyle (D) – Brown – Obama 68%, McCain 31% – No real change here, Doyle’s seat still surrounds greater Pittsburgh and is very,very democratic. Maybe if this area keeps trending rightward the republicans might consider cracking Pittsburgh into 3 by 2020, but for now they have no choice but to concede district 14.
District 15 – Charlie Dent (D) – Orange – Obama 56%, McCain 43% – This district was a dissapointment to me, but I wasn’t able to make Dent’s seat any more republican. I considered exchanging parts of Lehigh with Holden for parts of Schulykill, but since Lehigh is Dent’s base and Schulykill Holden’s, that doesn’t really make sense regardless of partisanship. Plus to go further north or south would hurt Barletta and/or Gerlach, who’s districts improved a lot. Dent got the short straw, and will have to try to keep winning in a D+3 seat.
District 16 – Joe Pitts (R) – Green – Obama 45%, McCain 53% – One of the things I tried to do in this map was to shore up Pitts, whose district is currently sliding out from under him. It shifts further west into York County and out of Chester County entirely, which drops the Obama percentage to 45%. Pitts shouldn’t have trouble here unless Lancaster and York continue moving leftward, which could cause angst later in the decade.
District 17 – Tim Holden (D) – Purplish-Blue – Obama 51%, McCain 48% – Tim Holden’s district gains some democratic precincts, most notably in Berks county where all of Reading is now within Holden’s seat. Given Holden’s strength he should now be able to hold this seat fairly easily despite it being 48% McCain, and the republican voters he lost go to helping out Jim Gerlach, who really needs them.
District 18 – Tim Murphy (R) – Yellow – Obama 44%, McCain 54% – Tim Murphy’s seat ends up getting more republican as it loses some democratic areas near Pittsburgh and takes in more republican areas in Allegheny County.
Conclusion – This map is very tenuous at best. The bottom line is that, in a blue state, the red team has to simply hope that their incumbents can do well in seats that are swingish and or lean democratic. I was able to help out some people like Meehan, Gerlach, and Barletta, but these are all likely seats that will go blue anyway during the 2012 presidential race. It will be on the individual representatives to make this work.
You did a very good job with this map-clean and compact. Republicans would be smart to take it and run. However, after looking at what they came up with last time . . . I figure they produce something as nasty as before.
It has Johnstown (Critz’s base) and State College, plus Thompson’s never had to run a tough race. I could see Critz beating Thompson in a Presidential year. The better option is to draw two Western votesinks; the 14th and a 4th that includes Johnstownand sets up a nasty Altmire/Critz primary.
I suspect Marino, who is corrupt and doesn’t know that Libya is in Africa, would be highly vulnerable to a center-left Democrat in your district. May be hard to protect both Marino and Barletta.
After all, they cycle between parties every 8 years, regardless of political climates. Therefore, I know this is planning ahead, but Democrats should have some leverage in the NEXT PA redistricting.
They seem to realize that going overboard won’t get them anywhere, but that won’t stop them from getting creative with some districts. I’ve heard a rumor that Barletta won’t be getting any protection.
I live in York County and One thing for sure is that the people of York would not allow the County to be split into two district. And Rep. Platts lives in York his very popular in this Area. So I don’t see Platts moving west. And if you haven’t heard they would try to put Scraton into Tim Holden’s district. But one thing for sure is that York County would not be dived into 2 districts.
18, Gay Male Democrat (PA-19)
You have drawn Rep. Pitts out of his district.
Republicans have a quandry with all the Dems in Luzerne and Lackawanna Counties. Very difficult to save Marino and Barletta both. Perhaps only the wisdom of Solomon can help the GOP. What are Kanjorski and Carney doing?
Not bad, and certainly better than the present and what has been revealed to PoliticsPA. Few out-of-state bloggers know this, but Joe Pitts has remained in the Kennett Square area of southern Chester County despite most of his district being in Lancaster County this past decade. Ergo he would find himself in the 7th but could still run for the vacant 16th due to laxer residency requirements for Congress compared to state legislative seats.
For that matter, Meehan would find himself in Brady’s district but could still run for the 7th. Meehan lives close to Philadelphia in Upper Darby, which would be the sixth-most-populous city in PA if it were a city. This map cuts WELL down on county splits. While Gerlach’s district remains gerrymandered to your own admission, its still better than the present district that the Philadelphia Inquirer called “a pterodactyl” in form.
What do you do with the city of Reading? I have an uncle there and under the current plan, its gerrymandered almost precisely in half between Gerlach and Pitts. The publicised proposal would have all of Reading in the 6th with Gerlach.
Reading is the fifth-most-populous city in the state and has an Hispanic population that grew at a totally-unexpected rate. This distinct type of community of interest must not remained gerrymandered up (“cracked”) in the State or Federal House reapportionment of the next decade. In the Congressional case, the idea was to take Reading from Holden and minimise the amount that Gerlach and Pitts would have to represent.
I think the NEPA Holden vote sink is the best idea for republicans. They could never knock Holden out and maintain two seats in the Scranton area. Better to leave DINO Holden in his seat and strengthen the other seats. Holden was against HRC and the GOP can expect his vote on many issues.
As the GOP I’d be willing to be more messy than you were in protecting Gerlach
Should the GOP really focus on beating him or should it jsut move on. I don’t mean this facetiously, but Holden will not live forever, and it seems like his current seat wouldn’t be won by any other Dem i can think of.
While I see the total point of the map and find it interesting, would the GOP maybe just kind of wait out Holden and still try to spread Dems thing and keep Holden/Marino/Barletta’s districts all with a slight R lean?
I reread your post and saw that you have all of the city of Reading returned to Holden. I agree with other bloggers that the location of Joe Pitts’ residence does present a problem. Since he is 71 and on his seventh term, I wouldn’t be surprised if he retires and ergo helps make southern Chesco available to Gerlach and/or Meehan. In Pennsylvania, the voting precinct of a legislator is considered public knowledge and is available by contacting his office.