Republicans will have a hard time improving their position in Michigan through redistricting. They all but ran the table last time and the best they can hope to do is to make sure that the seat lost is a Democratic one, by throwing together Levin and Peters.
They face three main problems in holding their position. The first is the extremism of their newer representatives relative to their districts. Tim Walberg ought to be fine, but he’s an idiot so he needs to be given a safer district and you can make a decent case that the same applies to Justin Amash. Thad McCotter, meanwhile, is a charisma black hole and can’t be expected to hold up a 54% Obama district indefinitely.
The second is Oakland’s shift leftwards. It saw a 7% swing to the Democrats in 2008 and with the decreased relevance of 8 Mile as a boundary and the increased diversity of the area that’s likely to continue. This also makes it harder for Republicans to protect their incumbents and still leave a district Marty Knollenberg (head of the redistricting committee) could hope to win.
The third is Ingham County. Most maps I’ve seen have aimed to combine Lansing with Flint in an attempt to make Kildee’s district even more of a vote sink that before. But this is problematic as it tends to involve splitting counties in ways that Michigan’s redistricting statute doesn’t permit. Whilst that probably doesn’t have the force of law, this isn’t Texas so it’s likely the map will try to pay lip service to its dictates rather than going for spaghetti strips.
There’s not much that can be done about the first or second. The best they can do is try to protect those who need it most and elsewhere share the pain.
However, there is a solution to the third. The solution is obvious, once you remember that a) Republicans have no particular interest in protecting John Dingell and b) Monroe County isn’t that blue. Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the Washtenaw-Jackson-Ingham district!