April 5 Election Results Thread #3

11:06pm: Keep it moving, folks.

11:01pm: This will come down to the Milwaukee suburbs…and depending on how many precincts are actually counted. Based on this last set, the swing away from Prosser is 4.9%….which is getting VERY close to what we need.  Turnout in the Dem strongholds isn’t particularly outstanding – 2.2x in MKE and 3.3x in Madison, slightly behind the 3.6x statewide.

10:52pm: A big batch of Milwaukee precincts…with votes, and a swing to KloJo, no less. This last batch brings the swing in MKE county from 9.28 to 11.78%. The swing away from Prosser is now 4.66%…which is getting close to the neighborhood of what is needed.

10:47pm: A huge batch of MKE suburban precincts….but no more votes.  Waukesha jumped from 52 to 119 and Ozaukee from 16 to 26.  This change alone brings the swing away from Prosser to 3.87%.

10:38pm: No progress yet from the MKE suburbs, but a cursory review of county websites would suggest that at least half are in and not the 27% reported.  Also interesting is that nothing has reported yet from Fond du Lac County, which could be a good source of swing toward KloJo.  The rest of the Fox Valley + Green Bay (defined to be Outagamie, Winnebago, Calumet, and Brown counties) has swung 7.3% away from Prosser.

10:32pm: 68% in now, and Prosser is about 2.27% underperforming his primary performance (which is calculated using a weighted average).  Turnout differentials are not particularly helping us – across the state, it’s about 3.9x the primary total, but only 2.2x in Milwaukee and 3.1x in Madison. (However, this includes the absurd Waukesha/Ozaukee/Washington results [Ozaushingsha County?], where turnout based on these numbers is 8.4x the primary).

10:24pm: KloJo is back in the lead, thanks to a Madison vote dump.  We’re still looking for some insight into the MKE suburban numbers, which seems overly inflated.

10:21pm: A similar effect is being seen in Washington County, where the current precinct numbers suggesting 73% of the population voting.

10:17pm: Nominally, the MKE suburbs are only 27% reporting. …but, the numbers right now would suggest 311K votes from Waukesha, or 80% of the total population. It would also suggest 60K votes from Ozaukee – 71% of the total population.  This should signal some overestimating of the effect of the Milwaukee burbs.

10:16pm: That last update wasn’t great for KloJo, who’s now 10,000 down; Prosser is only 2.27% underperforming now.

Let’s keep going…


Wisconsin: AP | Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel

Chicago: AP


Nevada: Clark County

182 thoughts on “April 5 Election Results Thread #3”

  1. I sometimes wish we could get all the results instantly, and then there’s a part of me that loves the anticipation!….

    1. I am awaiting a correction. I believe the QA systems are pretty good. If you’re going to steal votes, don’t make it so that you have over 100% of registered voters. That may tip some people off 😉

  2. not that it matters b/c it’s tiny but we only got 63% in a county Kerry got 82% in. I guess Klo wasn’t popular on the rez.

    1. 51-49 Prosser with one precinct left.  Walker got 61.5% there.  In fact, Prosser’s numbers match MCCAIN’s numbers.

    2. Some of these counties come in with huge underperformances or overperformances for each candidate, and without much knowledge of WI geography I can’t put together much of a pattern. From what I can tell Klop is overperforming most in the Madison area and the Superior counties and Prosser is overperforming in the Milwaukee area.

  3. I don’t understand the obsession with the “underperforming” number. Since the turnout is different – and the difference is unequal depending on the counties, there is no way to compare the %ages exactly to determine who will squeek by. I mean, it is an indicator but it takes a slightly higher turnout in a popular and pro-Dem county – say Milwaukee – for the 5% underperforming number not to be necessarily the threshold to cross. Am I misunderstanding something?

    1. Or if not, just how up-to-date are registration numbers from December 2010?  I mean, given how high-profile this race has become, I wouldn’t be surprised if there were a sizable chunk of people who finally decided to register to vote since January.

  4. Getting in the weeds here, but still interesting:  Republican Wisconsin State Representative Kathy Bernier of the 68th district, which covers northern Eau Claire, plus Lake Hallie and a good amount of rural area (she defeated Democrat Kristin Dexter in November by 78 votes out of 21,380 cast) is also the Lake Hallie Village President.  Not for long, though.

    Bernier lost the Lake Hallie Village President race 49-46% (621 to 584 votes).  It’s non-partisan, and I have no idea if the winner (John Neihart) has any party affiliation of his own, or if any part of the race revolved around Bernier’s votes in the Assembly, but, for what it’s worth, she lost the other seat she was elected to.


  5. Kloppenburg’s lead is about 1.5 points off of Obama’s 53.4% win there.  Walker got 56.4% there in 2010.

    1. that’s delusional. we can’t boast about high turnout one minute and then when the chips are down blame Obama for not turning out votes. It’s stupid, petty, and quite frankly helps no one.

      Again, if the left needs Obama to hold their hands, they’re useless.  

  6. all in. Decent-sized county south of Madison, 58-41 Kerry, 60-40 Klop. So far, the Madison area seems to be the engine driving Klop’s machine, along with the area up by Lake Superior.

  7. Lafayette is 47-53 P, 47-52 Bush

    Kenosha is 47-53 P, 46-53 Bush

    La Crosse is 66% in and 40-60 P, 46-53 Bush

    Marinette is 59-41 P, 53-46 Bush

    Oneida is 50-50 P, 52-47 Bush

    Columbia is 45-55 P, 51-48 Bush

    Except for Marinette and Columbia, the counties seem to be going toward Kloppenberg by 1 point over the Bush/Kerry nailbiter.

  8. Ashland 0/28

    Door 0/32

    Fond du Lac 0/77

    Grant 0/52

    Green Lake 0/16

    Langlade 0/27

    Pepin 0/11

    Trempealeau 0/26

    Washburn 0/25

    Waupaca 0/38

    Any commentary expected outcomes in any of these counties?

  9. Bringing in more votes so now it is

    Dane 182/248

    40,087 27%

    109,067 73%

    Looks like Klop is overperforming in Dane County and the margin should probably continue to increase as Madison County continues to report. I am still worried about those suburban counties.  

  10. Milwaukee county? I was expecting prosser to get stomped there, but he’s actually doing better than Walker did.  

    1. Given the trends in the Milwaukee suburbs, Prosser could net quite a few votes there.  That is, if the corrected numbers are actually the true ones, and there isn’t further corrections to be made.  Just off the top of my head, looking at some of them…

      Waukesha says it is a little more than half in, with 63K to 23K votes for Prosser vs. Klop.  If that trend holds up, the county could finish with something in the neighborhood of a 100K to 30K win for Prosser, which would really skew the results from what they are now.

      Washington could be even worse, if it is only 25% reporting as it claims.  Prosser is ahead 21.5K to 6.5K, if we extrapolate that out the final county results could look like 80K to 25K.  That is a lot of votes still outstanding there.

      Hopefully, the rest of Milwaukee comes in strong for Klop and gets her to 60% in that county, she really needs that.

    1. … it should be worth a net of at most 10,000 for Prosser (Walker carried it by 11,000).

  11. I’m hearing Kloppenburg won Chippewa County.  Swingy, but tends to lean GOP from my experience.

    1. the left always knows how to eat their own when the chips are down and why they can’t see how much damage it does to their so-called movement is mind boggling. If the left spent half the amount of time they do pointing fingers at who among them is to blame, actually figuring out ways to reach people, change minds, and discredit the right, we might actually get somewhere. But whatever.  

  12. He’s leading very narrowly with one precinct left.  By comparison, Walker won by over 17 points there.

  13. Reminds me so much of Ohio in 2004. Long lines, big hyped Democratic turnout and a Republican surge coming out of nowhere that does us in. Hopefully, the last part of my sentence does not come true. Look what happened in Sheboygan though 🙁

    Sheboygan 54/58

    16,983 63%

    10,101 37%

    St. Croix 42/43

    7,978 51%

    7,743 49%

    At least we are doing okay in St. Croix. We were supposed to get blown away there.  

  14. so the issues in the Milwaukee suburbs will get a lot of attention.  Errors in reporting happen, but people will figure out something went wrong as the results are scrutinized.

  15. Just a few minutes ago it was 14/40 reporting and after I hit refresh, it showed up as 40/40 but the vote totals didn’t change.  Just thought that was interesting since I think its down in the MKE suburb area.

    1. 41 more to go. If those precincts are from Madison which keeps pushing up Dane County’s margin, we could see another 19,000 Democratic votes out of there. If FDL’s numbers are correct, then Klo should be able to win! I am still worried about the Milwaukee suburbs.  

  16. Looking through the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel results, they are reporting that in the race for another judgeship there, 70% of the vote is in (with vote totals roughly equal to the state SC totals), instead of the c. 25% of precincts being reported in the AP results.

    Don’t know if that explains the gross difference in numbers, but if it is accurate, it would make a lot more sense.

  17. The numbers in three ugliest counties of suburban Milwaukee are at least now poised to be worse than anything John Kerry ever saw.  Prosser probably still has the edge with so much of Washington, Waukesha, and Fond du Lac still hanging out there and so little of Dane.

  18. Outagamie County – whose largest city is Appleton, home to Prosser and, coincidentally, Tailgunner Joe McCarthy – is going for Tom Nelson in the County Executive race. It is a nonpartisan race, but Nelson is former Dem Majority leader is state Assembly who lost in 2010 race for LG w/Tom Barrett against Walker/Kleefisch. He is running against former state treasurer, republican Jack Voight. Unfortunately, the county is otherwise going to Prosser by about 55-45.

    Outagamie County executive

    92 of 95 precincts reporting

    Tom Nelson: 21,190

    Jack Voight: 18,857

    Outagamie County clerk

  19.  Obama better wake up if this is this close! (5+ / 0-)

    He better get his butt to Wisconsin if this race is this close with all of that energy.

    I am seeing the energy on both sides and in a presidential election with energy on both sides like 2004, he could lose.

    We have to match the tea party energy of 2010, and I’m just not feeling that energy for Obama yet!

    He better learn to juice his base up and not take them for granted!

    Apparently liberals won’t vote unless Obama holds their hand and takes them to the polls or something.

    If they really need Obama to juice them up, they’re already fucking hopeless as a political force

  20. City of Milwaukee website is reporting the following

    298/312 precincts reporting

    David Prosser 33,935      32.48%

    Joanne Kloppenburg 70,178 67.17%

    AP is reporting the following for Milwaukee County

    Milwaukee 433/486

    77,247 42%

    106,034 58%

    Unless Prosser is winning really big in Milwaukee County less the city, these numbers don’t seem right and we should expect Kloppenburg to improver her numbers there quite a bit.

  21. Kloppenburg at 58%, which is still below Kerry’s number, but it’s still better than what we were seeing before.

  22. From the Twittersphere:

    Ben Smith at Politico re-Tweeted conservative blogger Dan Riehl (never heard of him, I don’t think) with these tweets (all from Riehl’s account):

    A top source says no way Prosser finishes ahead tonight, likely won’t concede – tht’s not frm Prosser camp. (9 minutes ago)

    Guys on ground in Wis not feeling real good. (9 minutes ago)

    He goes on to assure a follower that his source is particularly reliable.


  23. When Dodge and Washington adjusted to 80% reported (like Waukesha), Kloppenburg is over the 5% swing needed, and looks to have a small, but not recount-sized, margin of victory.

  24. Milwaukee burbs numbers still screwy but Klo should net a loss of about 15k in Waukesha and 4k in Washington, which will be more than made up for by what remains in Dane. Rest of state should be close to wash –> narrow Klo victory

  25. more Dane precincts came in. They are voting for Klop 3-to-1 (!!!!!!!). Dane is only 83% in yet is already reporting about 2/3 of the vote totals it had in 2004. Compare this to the rest of the state where most counties only have about half the votes they had in 2004! If Klop wins her nickname should be “The Judge That Madison Elected.”

  26. RUN DATE:04/05/11 10:35 PM


      VOTE FOR  1

                                                      VOTES  PERCENT                                                     VOTES  PERCENT

      01 = DAVID T. PROSSER, JR.                     16,243    60.92     03 = WRITE-IN                                      29      .11

      02 = JOANNE F. KLOPPENBURG                     10,390    38.97

    With something like 50/77 in (roughly)

Comments are closed.