11:06pm: Keep it moving, folks.
11:01pm: This will come down to the Milwaukee suburbs…and depending on how many precincts are actually counted. Based on this last set, the swing away from Prosser is 4.9%….which is getting VERY close to what we need. Turnout in the Dem strongholds isn’t particularly outstanding – 2.2x in MKE and 3.3x in Madison, slightly behind the 3.6x statewide.
10:52pm: A big batch of Milwaukee precincts…with votes, and a swing to KloJo, no less. This last batch brings the swing in MKE county from 9.28 to 11.78%. The swing away from Prosser is now 4.66%…which is getting close to the neighborhood of what is needed.
10:47pm: A huge batch of MKE suburban precincts….but no more votes. Waukesha jumped from 52 to 119 and Ozaukee from 16 to 26. This change alone brings the swing away from Prosser to 3.87%.
10:38pm: No progress yet from the MKE suburbs, but a cursory review of county websites would suggest that at least half are in and not the 27% reported. Also interesting is that nothing has reported yet from Fond du Lac County, which could be a good source of swing toward KloJo. The rest of the Fox Valley + Green Bay (defined to be Outagamie, Winnebago, Calumet, and Brown counties) has swung 7.3% away from Prosser.
10:32pm: 68% in now, and Prosser is about 2.27% underperforming his primary performance (which is calculated using a weighted average). Turnout differentials are not particularly helping us – across the state, it’s about 3.9x the primary total, but only 2.2x in Milwaukee and 3.1x in Madison. (However, this includes the absurd Waukesha/Ozaukee/Washington results [Ozaushingsha County?], where turnout based on these numbers is 8.4x the primary).
10:24pm: KloJo is back in the lead, thanks to a Madison vote dump. We’re still looking for some insight into the MKE suburban numbers, which seems overly inflated.
10:21pm: A similar effect is being seen in Washington County, where the current precinct numbers suggesting 73% of the population voting.
10:17pm: Nominally, the MKE suburbs are only 27% reporting. …but, the numbers right now would suggest 311K votes from Waukesha, or 80% of the total population. It would also suggest 60K votes from Ozaukee – 71% of the total population. This should signal some overestimating of the effect of the Milwaukee burbs.
10:16pm: That last update wasn’t great for KloJo, who’s now 10,000 down; Prosser is only 2.27% underperforming now.
Let’s keep going…