April 5 Election Results Thread #4

12:05am: Move along, move along, like I know you do.

12:05am: Prosser is now up by about 2,200 votes.  With most of the precincts in Dem-leaning territory…but these precincts have to be substantive, and not empty, as we’ve seen plenty tonight.

12:01am: Eau Claire County may not give us as much of a boost as expected – most of the city of Eau Claire is reporting, with 11 of the 21 outstanding being from the city.

11:56pm: Looking at Marathon County, there could be good news left for KloJo – most of the outstanding precincts appear to be in the City of Wausau, which should help her recover her lead, or at least be empty (which is better than the 54-46 margin Prosser has there thus far).

11:53pm: Bad advance news from Racine County, which based on the County website is fully reporting and has KloJo losing by 6K votes, not 3k.  This moves the needle to 4.90%.

11:46pm: Waukesha is now entirely reporting, with the last 68 precincts being all empty.  The needle stands at 4.98% away from Prosser…or a 182 vote Prosser lead when all is said and done.

11:42pm: The Las Vegas Mayoral runoff spot has been called for Chris G, evidently.

11:40pm: We’re at 94.6%. It comes down to something as simple as this: how much of Waukesha and Ozaukee are actually reporting? Just think, if Waukesha is indeed all reporting, that brings us to a final projected margin of 175 votes for Prosser.

11:33pm: FUCK. A bunch of Dane precincts just reported, with no votes. This likely owes to the various tendrils of the city of Madison that have their own precincts…but no residents.  This moves the needle to 3.87%…count me pessimistic.

11:26pm: Waupaca County just reported in bulk, showing a 7% swing to KloJo as has been characteristic of the Fox Valley/northeastern Wisconsin. The needle’s at 4.45%…where’s still just a little bit short of where we need to be.

11:23pm: I’ve been neglecting Las Vegas…where the Clark County is not showing any results for me.  But, Carolyn Goodman is out in front, with Chris G and Larry Brown separated by 30 votes!

11:15pm: 90.4% reporting now, and KloJo is clinging to a 4K vote lead.  The wildcard is still the Milwaukee burbs, which are lagging at 65% reporting…but who knows what’s actually reported.

11:11pm: Looking at FDL County, KloJo’s swings in the Fox Valley continue to be apparent: after having given Prosser 72% in the first round, FDL only gave him 61% this time around….a big improvement.

11:07pm: Before Professor Jeff gets into precincting procedures, it could be relevant that Wisconsin draws election precincts (which it refers to as “wards”), and that many of these precincts left could be empty.  I’ll also note that very few MKE precincts are empty…and that the empty ones Milwaukee precincts are actually part of Waukesha (2) and Ozaukee (1).

The sucker in me likes being optimistic.


Wisconsin: AP | Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel

Chicago: AP


Nevada: Clark County

234 thoughts on “April 5 Election Results Thread #4”

  1. AP website says that Kloppenburg has 134,880 votes in Dane County.  Per Dane County website, it should be 124,880, so Klop’s lead is being overstated by 10,000 votes.  

    Also, Fond du Lac county website has some results, with Prosser leading by about 6000 votes.  

    1. with them showing 19/38 precincts, there’s a combined 28K votes.  Yet with all reporting, it’s only 41K combined?

      Still, if those are the final numbers that’s good, hopefully Waukesha is similarly closer to finishing than it appears, otherwise Prosser is going to net another 30K votes there alone.

  2. Klop getting hammered.  Supposedly only 125 out of 198 precincts in, with the vote totals 78K to 28K, for a net +50K votes for Prosser.  If the trend is uniform, Prosser could net another 30K or more votes in Waukesha alone.

    At least Fon Du Lac is entirely in, 61-39% for Prosser.  Not too bad for us.

  3.  Those last 29 precincts in Milwaukee are from the city. Anyway, I was feeling so optimistic and then the margin fell again. Waukesha reported again, now giving a 50,000 vote lead to Pressor. All we really have left besides the Milwaukee metropolition area +Dane County to watch is Eau Clarie County with 41 precincts still unreported. Klo could get a few thousand extra votes out of there.  

  4. From the J-S. Just remember that Kloppenburg can probably get another 15-19k out of Madison.

    Supreme Court REPORTING 90%

     Joanne Kloppenburg 677,141


     David Prosser (inc) 673,670


    1. close to 1.5 million ballots by the end of this, and the final margin will be quite close.  Not even close to being over.

      Still, the numbers in Milwaukee and the suburbs were ridiculous.

  5. If the outstanding precincts are in Wausau, that should help…not on the same level as Waukesha, but add that to what remains in Madison and Milwaukee and it might move.  Earlier in the night, Marathon was heavy, heavy Prosser, but maybe that was the rural area of the county?

  6. Taking a quick glance at the numbers minority/city turnout in Milwaukee looks like it was very weak, and nothing compared to the amazing turnout in Madison.

    If they had turned out this wouldn’t have been a race at all.  

  7. Kerry got a 117,000-vote margin out of there in 2004. Klop should have been able to get 60,000 votes out of there, but she’s only winning by 27,000.

  8. Prosser is going to be ahead at the end by anywhere from 20K to 40K votes.

    We’re just not doing well enough in Milwaukee, and there’s not enough of Dane outstanding.  

    Washington is half in, 15K net lead for Prosser, so expect another net 15K.

    Waukesha is like 60% in, 50K net lead for Prosser, so expect maybe another net 30K.

    Extrapolate it out and that’s a big chunk of net votes for Prosser still outstanding.

    Dane might give us another net 15K, maybe another net 3K from Eau Claire.  Don’t see many other big ones.

    Waupaca is entirely outstanding and Prosser might net a few K votes there too.

  9. Goes all in, 26 precincts worth. Prosser gets 60%, which seems like an underperformance. Kloppenburg is clinging to a 2k vote lead.

  10. I’m not saying all of Milwaukee, obviously, but this must not have been a very pressing issue for a lot of the voters.

  11. a net 2.3K votes for Prosser, could have been worse.

    Really just down to Waukesha, Washington, and whatever’s left in Dane.

    1. This turned out to be one exciting night.  Reminds me a little of the 2002 Tim Johnson-John Thune Senate races with its endless twists and turns right down to the very last precinct to report.

    2. About 4900 registered voters in unreported precincts (basically, all in Wausau)

      Say 40% turnout, and Kloppenburg wins them 55-45 (Wausau kind of polarized, but that’s my estimate for the average in the city.) Then, about 200-300 vote margin for her… huh, thought it would be more.

  12. For giving me something to read on the last Chinatown bus out of New York City on a Tuesday night.  They never turn their lights on.

  13. 100k votes in 2004 (52/48 Bush)

    Ap showing only 36k, with 10 precincts left, and 54/46 Prossner

    Like Kenosha and Milwaukee this is underperformance, but also could be the 10 precincts are from the city.

  14. County Clerk website says counting will be late; apparently they ran out of ballots and are hand counting. Could be a decent chunk of votes here for the big Klopowski

  15. Prosser up by 6,000.  Almost impossible to imagine a comeback now unless the remaining precincts in Milwaukee County are all the 98% Democratic inner-city precincts and they had high turnout.

  16. Basically everything in except Eu Claire (expect another 2-3K net votes for Klop) and Waukesha (expect another 20-30K net votes for Prosser if the precincts remaining are full, possibly 10-20K if they just disappear like the remainder in Dane did).

    Either way, we’re going to be down between 15-30K votes by the end of today.

  17. Next time I should make sure that there aren’t mysterious “empty precincts” in play before making election predictions.

  18. Fuck.

    I really really really really hate Wisconsin right now. A special shout-out to Milwaukee and its suburbs for essentially single-handedly re-electing someone who is grossly unqualified to be a judge. I think from now on I’m going to be buddies with the Koch brothers so I can go around calling people bitches and not having to face any consequences.

  19. If I were a Repulican strategist nationally, I would move to have pretty much every election possible to off-year.  

    I mean many of the statewide/local (non-federal) races already are, but seriously, they should just move to switch every election ever to off-year.  They have so many majorities in many states at the moment and this trend keeps repeating and there just doesn’t seem to be a solution.

  20. LV is finished reporting and Chris G finished ahead of Larry Brown by 15 votes. If that holds, does that mean Chris G and Carolyn G go to a runoff of the G-girls?

  21. Is there not that much anger about Walker and his power grabs or is it just that the anger is all outside of Milwaukee? Or are people angry but still support Prosser?

    I just hope this doesn’t hurt recall efforts.

  22.  A few rural counties such as Sauk, Dunn and Portage which all voted for JoeKlo but by small margins have not reported yet. Anyway, this is where we wait for the absentees to be counted. From what I heard, Dane County had a good number of absentees.  

  23. Think we could still pull this out.

    Prosser up 2000 now, and Waukashe is 100% in according to website (no vote difference.) Question is how much left in Ouzakee, and the county results have exactly 3 more votes than AP (2-1 Prosser!) If it’s empty or very little, we probably win with what’s left in Dane/Milwaukee/Eu Claire/etc.

  24. one of the candidates, Anthony Wernicke, listed his nickname on the ballot as “little guy.” I think he should go hook up with Washington state’s Mikethemover and that other guy.

  25. Suddenly we could be in the game again.  Depends a lot on where the vote is left in Racine County and Milwaukee County.  Both are counties with some deep blue and some deep red territory.  Beyond that, we could piecemeal a small lead left with the remaining precincts in places like Ashland County and Crawford County, which lean Dem.  But we still have all those outstanding precincts in Marathon County as well.  It remains a crap shoot even now.

  26. ….but it’s unclear if the remaining precincts are rural townships with 100 people in the case of places like Crawford and Portage Counties….or if they’re crimson red suburbs in Milwaukee and Racine Counties.

  27. Ozaukee is still out, and how many more votes to count in Marathon..

    Have all the urban parts of Racine reported?

    How many more stupid empty precincts are there left in Democratic strongholds, if any?

  28. As noted above, Portage and other Klopp-friendly counties have outstanding precints in addition to Milwaukee and Dane.  Ozaukee’s 8 precincts would be heavy for prossner… and ten from racine could go either way.

    Still a lot of race here… UNLESS those dane distrcits are slow because of slow counting hand ballots, in which case this will be Klopp by a significant amount, haven’t heard that tho.

  29. Looks from a cursory search of county data that most/all of unreported precincts are in Wausau, where Kloppenburg is up (something like 55-45 roughly overall – their precinct data is very messy so hard to tell.) Good news!

  30. AP does it again, updated Waukesha straight from 130/198 to 198/198, no change in vote totals.  That right there eliminates a net 30K votes for Prosser I was predicting based on the AP numbers.  We’re basically looking at the final numbers, there might be 1K here, 2K there, but there’s a bit for both sides and it will probably more or less cancel out.  The final result will probably be within a 5K margin, out of over 1.4 million votes cast.

    Counties to watch:

    Eau Claire (could be another 1-2K votes for Klop)

    Ashland (could be another 500 for Klop)

    Marathon (possibly another few hundred for Prosser)

    Ozaukee (might be 1-2K votes for Prosser)

    Portage (possibly a few hundred for Klop)

    Racine (maybe 500 for Prosser)

    Dane and Milwaukee have barely any precincts left (which may be emptee) but if they do report, the sheer size of those two counties may alter the final results by a few hundred more votes.

    With the suburbs just drying up like that, we are definitely headed for an absurdly close election with 1.4 million votes cast.

  31. No matter what today, we’ll probably have a nice long recount and court battle over “voter fraud,” voter intent, contested ballots, lizard people and all that jazz.

    But the fun really comes with the fact that Walker is sure to make an ass out of himself during the process, and that the GOPers running for President will have to kiss his ring in the process!

  32. Just one precinct from Milwaukee County reports and puts Klopp back in the lead.  Let’s hope the rest of Milwaukee County’s precincts are in the same neighborhood as that one.

  33. Website has ~7000 more votes, 5000-2000 Prosser

    Exact numbers: Prosser+3545 not yet on AP. Ouch. Hopefully that’s it for the county but it doesn’t seem done yet.

    This’ll be a nailbiter.

  34. It comes down to what’s left in Milwaukee, Eau Claire, and two outstanding precincts in Dane, and a smattering of random precincts across the state.


  35. 56-44 compared to 52-47 for Bush. But now that Racine and Ozaukee are done, we have to hope that Dane and Milwaukee have more Dem votes than we think. there’s also Eau Claire and Ashland left (a bit).

  36.  Seriously will come down to a few hundred votes, then the absentees will come and hopefully shift things in our favor. Right now, P is leading by 4700 but we still have 12 precincts in Milwaukee and a few precincts from Democratic leaning rural counties.

  37. That should leave nothing but Klopp-friendly areas left.  But are there enough votes left to pick up 5,000?  Seems like a stretch, but possible if all of Wausau is left out there.

  38. That should leave nothing but Klopp-friendly areas left.  But are there enough votes left to pick up 5,000?  Seems like a stretch, but possible if all of Wausau is left out there.

  39. That should leave nothing but Klopp-friendly areas left.  But are there enough votes left to pick up 5,000?  Seems like a stretch, but possible if all of Wausau is left out there.

  40. 101 precincts, with Marathon being substantially Wausau and one Dane and several Milwaukee precincts… and down by 2400 now.

    Hard to see Prossner winning unless Milwaukee are all empty.

  41. we need those remaining Milwaukee precincts to be big, not empty, and Democratic. Also we can still count (barring empty precincts) on Sauk, Ashland, Eau Claire, and that last Dane precinct.

  42. Kloppenburg did really bad in the whole Milwaukee area and surrounding counties…includig Racine.  I suppose this may portent well for Robert Darling in her effort to stave off a recall…

    Meanwhile, she dominated in Dane County and in the rural West and especially the iron range.  I hope that a challenger to Sean Duffy steps up and has similar success.

  43. thinkprogress ThinkProgress

    RT @MacIverWisc: Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett just said on TV that in Milw. they have just begun to count the 8,000 absentee ballots…

  44. Apparently there are about 8,000 absentee ballots to be counted in Milwaukee. now I do not know if that is milwaukee county or milwaukee city (I believe city but can confirm later), but promising nonetheless

  45. Regardless of how this ends up this was one of the most insane elections I’ve ever seen unfold. Definitely a rollercoaster ride to say the least.

    Also, HUGE ups to Madison/Dane County. They were incredible and are the only reason we still have a shot. If only Milwaukee had contributed a little bit more.  

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