April 5 Election Results Thread #5

2:02am: 3,575 of 3,630 precincts, Klop behind 726,325 to 728,203. And sorry for any confusion about the timestamps – Jeff insisted on using something called “Central” time, but I’m here to restore Eastern time to its rightful glory.

1:45am: 7 more precincts just came in, and Kloppenburg is now behind 1,898 votes.

1:40am: It’s so close that I’m not sure this is meaningful, but our model now predicts a KloJo win by 50.04% to 49.96%.

1:31am: Per that table just below, I count about 97 outstanding precincts, in counties that Kloppenburg has won by an average of 60% so far tonight.

1:24am: DavidNYC here – taking over the con from Jeff, who has done heroic work tonight. Not counting absentees, etc., this is where I’m seeing outstanding precincts:





























































































































































































County Region Percent In Total Kloppenburg Prosser K% P%
Eau Claire College 65.57% 40 61 9,524 6,343 60.02% 39.98%
Marathon Rest 77.14% 108 140 14,032 16,368 46.16% 53.84%
Ashland Rest 78.57% 22 28 2,504 1,037 70.71% 29.29%
Sauk Dairyland 79.49% 31 39 7,625 6,166 55.29% 44.71%
Dunn Rest 85.00% 34 40 3,896 3,358 53.71% 46.29%
Crawford Dairyland 92.59% 25 27 2,428 1,689 58.97% 41.03%
Calumet Fox Valley 94.87% 37 39 3,670 5,953 38.14% 61.86%
Adams Rest 95.00% 19 20 2,316 2,188 51.42% 48.58%
Buffalo Rest 95.65% 22 23 1,275 1,452 46.75% 53.25%
Juneau Rest 96.55% 28 29 2,546 2,337 52.14% 47.86%
Oconto Rest 96.55% 28 29 3,852 5,199 42.56% 57.44%
Taylor Rest 96.67% 29 30 2,266 3,602 38.62% 61.38%
Milwaukee Milwaukee 97.53% 474 486 125,090 95,129 56.80% 43.20%
Jefferson Rest 97.56% 40 41 9,365 12,860 42.14% 57.86%
Manitowoc Rest 97.62% 41 42 7,690 12,044 38.97% 61.03%
Dane Madison 99.60% 247 248 133,513 48,627 73.30% 26.70%


My nails now are quite bloody.

Results:

Wisconsin: AP | Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel

Chicago: AP

SC: SC SEC

Nevada: Clark County

209 thoughts on “April 5 Election Results Thread #5”

      2. That link shows completely different totals, from what I can tell. (Though it’s getting late…) They seem to be missing a lot of precincts there. Why can we tell that Middleton’s second precinct is what was missing on AP count?

  6. There are at least 8,000 more votes to go in Milwaukee County, as per Mayor Barrett’s office, and Eau Claire County acknowledged they are hand-counting ballots – so those aren’t likely to be disappointing empty precincts.

  7.  It was great spending election night here. It looks like the race will not be decided tonight. See you all in the morning. Hopefully, we can win those absentees!  

  9. and the loser of the recount appeals to the court

    and that decision is appeealed to the Supreme Court

    and that results in a partisan 3-3 tie

    What happens next? My con law is a bit rusty, but does that jump the rails to the federal appellate courts?

    1. I’m a little unsure we will, as turnout will likely be lower than this race, but it would be a nice morale boost for Dems in Kapanke’s district.

  12. They ran out of ballots and they are being hand counted from my family telling me.  

    2. one of those was from Adams which is now all in. also at some point (this may have been a while back) the two remaining precincts from Calumet were reported.

    5. …..two red precincts in Calumet, and two neutral precincts in Dunn.  Slight but irrelevant uptick for Prosser, who has fewer and fewer remaining precincts that could keep him alive.

  16. I was out playing team trivia at the bar drinking and having a merry time and . . . oh. Ohhhhh . . .

    Tied game at the 1 minute mark? Yikes.

    And yes, I was grabbing for their iPhones every chance I got, so I had an idea.

  18. Adams 19/20

    Ashland 22/28

    Calumet 37/39

    Crawford 25/27

    Dunn 34/40

    Eau Claire 40/61

    Jefferson 40/41

    Juneau 28/29

    Manitowoc 41/42

    Milwaukee 474/486

    Sauk 31/39

    Taylor 29/30

    1. 0225 C MIDDLETON WDS 1-4 & 9         P  873  K  2315       0228 C MIDDLETON WDS 5-8, 10-1             0       0        

  22. from counties that Prosser won.

    This does not include the 32 precincts from Marathon, which might be Dem-leaning.

    56 precincts from strong Democratic areas and a couple left from Dem-leaning counties as well.

  24. And the link posted in the other thread shows some of the Marathon ones are empty, but I did see at least one Wausau precint with 1000+ voters, and others with 100+.

    1. Don’t know who said it was half of Middleton.

      For reference, the other half of Middleton was +1400 Klopp. This half was more Democratic in the Feb primary.

  29. Waiting for the ganga break to be over and for the final batch of results to come in. Listening to Jeff Buckley to keep from getting too agitated by the delays. I feel like it’s going to be a narrow, but extremely important win. Though the weak-ish results make me think that Dems might only be able to pick up 2 recall Senate Seats, Kapanke, who shot himself in the foot when he thought he could vote like he did while holding a very blue and traditionally so district, and Hopper who holds a Democratic leaning swing district and has been hit with scandals.  

  33. Assuming none of those precincts are empty (a huge qualifier since Waukesha went from 65% reporting all the way to 100% reporting with no new votes), here’s my guesses, purely from assuming equal performance in all precincts, which of course becomes less useful the fewer number of precincts you are trying to analyze based on county-wide results, but here goes:

    Adams: negligible

    Ashland: +300 Klop

    Calumet: +100 Prosser

    Crawford: +50 Klop

    Dane: +400 Klop

    Dunn: +100 Klop

    Eau Claire: +1500 Klop

    Jefferson: +50 Prosser

    Juneau: negligible

    Manitowoc: +50 Prosser

    Marithon: +400 Prosser

    Milwaukee:  +600 Klop

    Sauk: +500 Klop

    Taylor: +50 Prosser

    Grand total: +2300 for Klop, bringing the final result to a winning margin of 600 votes for Klop.

    Some additional things to consider, I’m hearing Milwaukee’s remaining precincts are empty, so drop another 600 votes…and that’s just enough expected vote left to tie it up.

    Anecdotally I’ve heard what’s left in Marathon won’t come in as strong as the earlier precincts did for Prosser, so maybe we still have the edge.

  34. A good night tonight overall. Our dominance continues in Las Vegas with Dems assured to win all the council seats this year.  (Ward 3 is going to runoff between 2 Dems.) With Chris G going to runoff against Carolyn Goodman, Dems may yet reclaim that prize. And in my beloved hometown of Henderson, incumbent Dems Gerri Schroder and Debra March both won outright with over 50% as Dem Sam Bateman finished first in Ward 4 (and going to runoff against GOPer Mike Mayberry in a seat the GOP currently holds).

    The only bad news was in North Las Vegas, where Dem incumbent Richard Cherchio finished narrowly behind challenger Wade Wagner… But neither got 50%, so there will be a runoff.

  35. There were primaries this evening for the Dems and GOP for the 94th Wisconsin Assembly district (near La Crosse, in Kapanke’s State Senate district), vacated by Republican Mike Huebsch when he joined the Wis. DOA.  Steve Doyle won for the Dems, John Lautz for the Republicans, general election is in early May.

    For what it’s worth, the total votes in each primary:

    Dem:  8,959

    GOP:  7,688

    http://www.weau.com/electionre…

    Could be Kloppenburg turnout, but could also be a sign of Dem momentum to pick up what has been a Republican seat in the Assembly.  Nowhere close to a majority, but a seat’s a seat.

    1. The Dane county website had the same total as AP but forgot to put in that Middelton precinct. They added it in but it didn’t affect the totals for either candidate.

  40. I’ve been following this since like 10 without commenting, but I have to turn in.. I do need some sleep.

    This has been a wild ride. I finished a 8-2 Washington map in between updates too, but I probably won’t post it.

  41. News3David:

    Brian Schimming with WisGOP says totals now 727,804 Prosser, 725,964 Kloppenburg. Among outstanding wards is half of Middleton

    Middleton is a strong Klopp area so that should be good news. Not sure if there is net 2,000 votes to be had though.

  42. Klopp picked up ground in the last remaining precinct but Prosser still won Buffalo County 51-49.

  45. that if Milwaukee had turned out, we’d be celebrating.

    Did the campaign forswear street money?

  48. Almost no change in the statewide vote. I’d say it’s pretty much down to Eau Claire now, pending any lurking absentees.

  50. Extrapolating from the other half of Middleton’s current results and Feb primary data, I’m estimating +1700 Klopp from that last precinct. Looks like we’ve won.

  55. It’s been reported that this is half of Middleton, and I’m estimating (from current Dane County + Feb primary results) that this will give +1700 Klopp votes.

  56. and the net gap of 1900 more or less unchanged, it’s down to this:

    Eau Claire: We need at least 1K more votes here, 1.5K would be preferable.

    Ashland: We could get another few hundred here.

    Dane: How big is that last precinct?  Might be worth another few hundred votes, or even more.

    Jefferson: That last precinct might give Prosser back another 100.

    Sauk: We might get 100+ here.

    At this point I’m assuming Milwaukee is done.  I’m also hearing Crawford is done.

  70. ….if we’re talking about only 500-some votes.  Hopefully we’ll get a little insurance out of inner-city Milwaukee though.

  71. What’s left:

    Ashland

    Dane??? – probably not. (Also all in per county site, no changes)

    Dunn – ?

    Jefferson – estimate +100 Pross from precinct data

    Juneau – ?

    Milwaukee – ????

    Sauk – ?

    Taylor – ?

    585 votes. 585 votes….

  74. Obama +1072

    Kerry +1124

    Klopp +100

    Even stranger.  Total votes for

    Bush 288

    Mccain 185

    Prossner 141 !

    –

    Kerry 1412

    Obama 1257

    Klopp 241  !

    Rep turnout 49% of 2004, 76% of 2008

    Dem turnout 17% of 2004, 19% of 2008

    Current 550 vote deficit wiped out if the smallest county in the state had Dem turnout about the same as Rep turnout.

  75. …doesn’t look like there would be too many out there:

    Provisional Voting

    A provisional ballot is a ballot that is marked by a voter but is not counted at the time it is cast.  It is issued to a voter who is unable to provide the poll workers with documentation as required by Wisconsin and federal law.

    There are two circumstances in which a voter is entitled to receive a provisional ballot:

    A qualified elector who has been issued a current and valid Wisconsin driver’s license registers to vote at a polling place on election day, but cannot list the driver’s license number on the registration;

    A first-time Wisconsin voter who registers by mail but does not provide an identifying document establishing proof of residence at the time he or she submits the registration form and is unable to provide the required proof of residence at the polling place.

    Provisional ballots are NOT given when a voter is at the wrong polling place.  If a voter appears at the wrong polling place, he or she will be directed to the proper location.

    Provisional ballots are also NOT given when a person is attempting to register in-person at the polling place and does not provide the required proof of residence or cannot use a corroborator.

    A provisional ballot will not be counted unless the voter provides the required information to the poll workers or the municipal clerk by 4:00 p.m. of the day following the election.

    Instructions for voters who cast a provisional ballot are here.

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