11:30pm: SSP’s home riding of Edmonton-Strathcona is held by the NDP…the only non-Tory seat in Alberta.
11:21pm: Almost two hours after polls closed in Quebec, the Bloc finally has its first seat, Haute-Gaspesie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapedia. (jeffmd here – I think I figured out why I like Quebec riding names, it lets me pretend I stil know French!).
11:13pm: Harper should be grateful for ridings like Bramlea-Gore-Malton (37 Con-32 NDP-27 Lib) and Scaborough Centre, 36 Con-31 NDP-31 Lib. Notably, the Tory vote actually dropped 1% from 2008…but the NDP/Lib split hands the seat to Harper.
10:54pm: The decimation of the Grits and Bloc is stunning. Libs elected/leading in 31 ridings; the Bloc is leading in only 4.
10:51pm: CBC is now calling a Conservative majority for Stephen Harper.
10:50pm: Moving further west, Green Party leader Elizabeth May is out to an early lead in Saanich–Gulf Islands over Tory incumbent Gary Lunn.
10:45pm: Tories now leading or elected in 165 ridings. Tory majority looking more and more likely.
10:37pm: Tories are leading or elected in 158 ridings now; 155 is the magic number for a majority.
10:34pm: In my home riding of Edmonton-Strathcona, incumbent NDPer Linda Duncan is leading by a 53-40 margin, but a lot of votes are outstanding.
10:33pm: The power of vote splitting! Brampton/Mississauga could go from 7/8 Liberal to an 8-0 Tory shutout.
10:29pm: Tories are now leading in 150 ridings; NDs in 104. Liberals in just 32, BQ 4.
10:28pm: Hah — in just Toronto alone, the Tories are leading in 9 of 23 Toronto seats, up from 0.
10:22pm: Michael Ignatieff is losing to a Tory, and Gilles Duceppe is losing to a New Democrat. Interesting times.
10:18pm: Things are just moving so fast right now, but we’re really on the cusp of a Conservative majority government with an extremely robust NDP opposition.
10:12pm: CBC has projected that the NDP will overtake the Liberals as the official opposition in Parliament. Harper has a government, but we’re still unsure whether or not he’s won a majority.
10:07pm: Checking in on the party leaders, Grit leader Michael Ignatieff is leading by 1 vote in his Toronto riding of Etobicoke–Lakeshore. A few ridings east, in Toronto–Danforth, NDP leader Jack Layton has 64%. With just one poll reporting in Laurier–Sainte-Marie, Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe finds himself in 3rd! Nothing yet from Harper’s Calgary Southwest or Green Party would-be Elizabeth May’s Saanich–Gulf Islands.
10:00pm: Results in from the Atlantic provinces:
- PEI: steady at 3 Lib, 1 Con.
- Newfoundland and Labrador: Contrary to earlier reports, the Tories didn’t get shut out here. 4 Lib, 2 NDP, 1 Con. Net shift of two from the Grits to NDP. Libs do hold Avalon, though.
- Nova Scotia: 4 Con, 3 NDP, 2 Lib, with two more Libs leading. Would be a shift of one from the Libs to the NDP.
- New Brunswick: 7 Con, 1 Lib, 1 NDP, with one more Tory leading. Would be a net shift of two Lib>Con.
Polls are finally closing in all of Canada at 10pm Eastern; we’ll soon get our first verified election results at that point.
Hang Hold on to your butts!