CT Sen-Chris Dodd will have a primary challenger.

Looks like Dodd’s got a primary opponent, Merrick Alpert:

http://www.myleftnutmeg.com/di…

And here’s his website:

http://merrickforachange.ngpho…

Just looking at the website and the video, I don’t see this guy as the next Ned Lamont, and frankly, I’m for Dodd all the way.  Dodd’s been a great senator in the past and he’s earned a lot of praise from the netroots, and rightfully so.  There have been many times in the past where he’s been a leader on progressive legislation, from Family Leave to FISA, and I’d hate to see him leave the Senate at this point.  I’m well aware of the AIG issue, which I think was a load of crap.  No one worked harder than Dodd (well, maybe Bernie Sanders) to get some accountability at AIG.  If you want to blame someone for that mess, look elsewhere.

That said, I understand that Connecticut voters are rather pissed.  Dodd needs to work to reconnect with his state after his failed presidential campaign.  If he is turned away in the primary, I will support the Democrat, and I hope everyone else does too, and I hope the primary goes ahead without any interference, but I still think Chris Dodd deserves to be reelected.

FL-Sen, FL-Gov: The Dream Scenario

Dream scenarios almost never happen in politics.  But this is America, and if you didn’t learn last year that ANYTHING can happen in American politics you might as well hang up your hat now.  That said, I’m looking at the dream scenario that could play out in Florida next year.  I should say though, I’M NOT SAYING THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN!  I hate it when folks talk with absolute certainty about what can and can’t or will and won’t happen.  What I’m saying is, this is a POSSIBILITY and if it doesn’t happen, at least we had the dream.  If it does happen though, it will be fantastic.

So, here’s the scenario:  Crist runs for Senate, loses the primary to Marco Rubio, and the Senate race and the governorship both flip to our side.

How could this happen?

First, let’s look at the Governor’s race, as I don’t think there’s much argument that, if Crist gets out, it will be competitive.

The Democratic candidate is a no brainer: Florida CFO Alex Sink, who would be an incredibly strong candidate.  The Republican frontrunner would, presumably, be Florida AG Bill McCollum, but there’s the rub.  There are a ton of Republicans that could jump in if Crist bails: Ag. Commissioner Charlie Bronson, Former House Speaker Allan Bense, Lt. Gov Jeff Kottkamp (who’s in some legal trouble), and potentially some congresscritters.  A one on one race between Sink and the eventual nominee would remain a tossup to the end, but a brutal Republican primary…that would make it just that much easier for Florida to elect it’s first female governor, and an incredibly competent and skillfull one at that.

Now, to the Senate race and the scenario that could play out.

There is a formula for Rubio to defeat Crist.  It’s not a guarantee, but here it is:

1) Solidify support from the teabaggers and their ilk.  These folks are already pissed at Crist over the stimulus and a few other policies he’s pushed and the rage in the Republican ranks is growing only louder and crazier.  All Rubio has to do is start popping up at tea parties and laying in a few punches and he’ll get some momentum going.  From there, it’s easy to see him appearing on the right wing outlets-Beck, Hannity, Limbaugh, etc. and landing major support that will help tremendously in the primary.

2) Solidify the right-wing Cuban support.  Now, let me be clear here, I fully believe that being a member of a group no way guarantees the votes of the members of said group.  I’m talking about the right-wing Cuban noise machine here that’s been making south Florida’s politics toxic for decades.  Obviously, Rubio has plenty of windows to open here, but that said this whole thing would unravel if major figures from that machine like the Diaz-Balart brothers got solidly into the Crist camp.  If Rubio wants to win though, or even if he wants to look serious, he needs to poll well among Latino (specifically Cuban) Republicans.  I have no idea where Crist stands on Cuba, but all it will take is one slip, or even the suggestion that he might vote wrong on the issue.  Hell, if he doesn’t say anything or gets mealy-mouthed he’ll lose out here.  So there’s definately an oppurtunity for Rubio.

3) Enter the CFG.  The Club for Growth is already talking up Rubio and are furious with Crist over the stimulus.  They’ve been great at bombing races with tons of money and even when they weren’t successful in the primary they’ve often doomed the chances of the more moderate winner.  They’ll definately be a major factor here.

4) Keep the momentum going.  If Rubio locks up support from these major players in the primary, generates media buzz and decent fundraising (he doesn’t have to beat Crist’s numbers, the CFG will do that.  He just has to raise a decent amount and stay competitive), and doesn’t screw up, he can build on this strategy.  If he got the NRA endorsement it would help him tremendously, especially in the panhandle.  He could also get support from religious right groups who would be all too happy to take on a closet case like Crist in the primary.  And speaking of which, there’s always the major shadow hanging over Charlie boy.  At some point his sexuality is going to catch up with him at some point, the only question is when it will happen and how bad will the explosion be.

Like I said, I’m not saying this scenario will play out.  At best I’d say it’s got a 1 in 5 chance, maybe a 1 in 4.  Hell, Rubio could turn out to be blowing smoke and just jump into the Gov. race if Crist gets in.  But if he’s not, we shouldn’t write this one off just yet.  If Rubio does win in will be narrowly, and he’ll have pushed himself so far to the right that it will be much easier to defeat him than it would be if he won without facing Crist in the primary.  If you’ve ever seen Rubio speak, you know he comes off as an ordinary guy, very conservative but still likeable-the worst kind there is.  A divisive primary though will come back to haunt him and, who knows, even if Crist were to win he might be so bloodied as to be unreconizable, giving our eventual nominee (whoever it is, though right now I don’t see how it’s not Congressman Meek) an opening.

This one isn’t out of contention by a long shot yet.  This could happen.  It’s not the most likely scenario in the world, but it’s still a very real possibility.

Indiana Governor 2012: Roy Dominguez voices plans already

Happened across this while skimming Blue Indiana.  Apparently, the Sheriff of Lake County, Roy Dominguez, announced when addressing a gathering of law school students his hopes to run for Governor of Indiana in 2012.

http://www.blueindiana.net/dia…

I’ll be the first to say I know absolutely nothing about Indiana, the distant gubernatorial race, or Dominguez.  I take that back…I know I’d like to see Evan Bayh swallowed and then spit out by an anaconda…but that’s all!  This guy may turn out to be a gadfly or for all I know he could turn out to be an underdog we can root for, I don’t know.

What I do know is that the guy seems interesting:

http://www.lakecountysheriff.c…

He also didn’t fall flat on his face with his choice of venue.  He apparently tied the announcement in very nicely with the speech topic of overcoming racism and prejudice and following your dreams, so it sounds like the guy can weave a narrative and impress people:

http://www.post-trib.com/news/…

Also of interest, there’s polling out on the favorability ratings of Bayh and Lugar as well as Obama:

http://www.blueindiana.net/dia…

I’m surprised Obama has such high favorables to be honest, and if he can keep them at that level in 2012 then maybe there’s a chance we can drag some Dems into the governorship and Lugar’s seat if he retires.  It may be a little too early to think about this, but it’s out there so we might as well do so.  Personally, I’m hoping to hear from someone who can provide more information on this than me.

I’ve got a nasty little tidbit on a potential Arkansas Republican senate candidate.

Ok, this is going to be short, but a sweet little piece of gossip.  My boyfriend and I were just over at his two best friends’ house.  We got to talking politics and it turns out that one of them personally knows the mayor of Rogers, Steve Womack, who’s thinking about running against senator Blanche Lincoln.  According to him, “Steve is the man who once said he was going to ‘run all the n***ers, f*gs, and (something else, I forget what exactly as it was a little unusual sounding) out of my town’ in front of…(wait for it)…the city council meeting!”  So somewhere in the public record are some really nasty racist comments by a potential Republican senate candidate…boy I can’t wait for this to break!

AZ-Senate: The Man Who Could Take Down John McCain

Since Janet Napolitano went to Obama’s cabinet and McCain announced (repeatedly) that he was running for reelection, Arizona has seemed off the table for us.  This, being followed by Sebelius’s choice to join the cabinet instead of running for Brownback’s seat, certainly but a bad taste in everyone’s mouth.  However, I’m inclined to a never give up attitude, and I think McCain is still very vulnerable, even if it would be an uphill fight.  There’s no room for naivity though.  If we’re going to win, we need a very strong candidate……..  

The Mayor of Phoenix, Phil Gordon

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(Credit where credit is due: I’m not the only one who’s thought of this, SE-779 floated this idea as well, so hopefully we’re on to something.)

For those of you that don’t know about Mayor Gordon, he’s bound to be one of the best mayors in the country and a rising star in the Democratic Party, and it shows.  He was elected mayor in 2003 with 72 percent of the vote and again in 2007 with 77 percent.  And Gordon’s not just a big name politician.  The guy’s the real deal.  He’s worked hard and used creative thinking to revitalize down town Phoenix, supported light rail, and launced the Works Progress Advancementproject, the heart of which is a compelling public works project.  The icing on the cake?  Mayor Gordon is on record standing up to Joe Arpaio and for civil rights.  And for all his hard work, Mayor Gordon earns tremendous praise from his constituents and drives the wingnuts insane.

Mayor Gordon is not only a good Democrat, he’s clearly a Better Democrat of the mold that’s shown great promise in the West over the last couple of cycles.  But here’s the rub-by all accounts, he’s interested in running for Governor.  The Arizona governor’s seat was lost to the Republicans when Napolitano went to the cabinet and the Secretary of State took over.  There’s no guarantee we’ll get the seat back, and we already have a top tier candidate for the seat in Arizona Attorney General Terry Goddard, who’s also from the city of Phoenix.  The last thing we need is a rough primary between our two top candidates if we’re going to take back the governorship, especially when we could be working on taking down a high profile Republican senator.

McCain’s loss to Barack Obama and his conduct during the course of the campaign hurt him, so much so that it looked like Obama would be competitive in McCain’s homestate at one point.  Early on it looked like McCain would mend fences and work to keep a top challenger out of the running, but now it’s clear that with Napolitano gone he has no intention of doing anything but being a vindictive old man and an obstical in the path of progressive change.  What’s more, if Gordon were to run, he might not find himself facing McCain.  The far right has always had the knives out for the senator.  Former Congressman J.D. Hayworth gets a lot of buzz for a primary challenge.  In 2004, the Club For Growth (which will surely support any McCain challenger in the primary) tried to get Jeff Flake to challenge him.  And there’s always a few extra wingnuts drifting around Arizona like Randy Graff.  Gordon would have a strong advantage over any of these far-right nuts, but even if that dream scenario doesn’t play out he’ll still have a good shot at beating McCain.

Think about it, Arizona, like most of the west, is moving our way.  Obama will compete there in 2012 and would have competed there had McCain not been on the ballot last year.  McCain lost a lot of support among the growing Latino population in the state with his waffling on immigration, a group that Mayor Gordon has been a strong advocate for.  On top of that, McCain is working hard to further erode support among working and middle-class constituents by opposing a popular president’s economic reforms in a time where people are feeling the crunch.  What’s more, McCain has always gotten soft ball opposition in his reelection campaigns, and we’ve seen that he has a tendancy to flash his temper and trend towards self-destruct when he’s up against a real opponent.  So believe me, this one is doable.  It will be tough, akin to the Begich/Stevens contest last year, but still very, very, winnable.

So, if you think Mayor Gordon should run (and he will probably have to be drafted), why not drop him a line: http://www.mayorgordon.com/con… or throw his name out to the DSCC.

We can do this.  We can beat McCain on his home turf and send him packing for good while electing a Better Democrat and a great ally for President Obama to the U.S. Senate.  But first, we’ve got to make some noise and get him to run.

(Cross Posted at Senate Guru and DailyKos)