Creigh Deeds’s landslide in the Virginia Gubernatorial Primary on June 9th was shocking to pundits like me. This race was supposed to be a three way nail biter fought by Terry McAuliffe’s money and his big name supporters; Brian Moran who had Northern Virginia roots and Creigh Deeds carrying rural Virginia. Instead, Deeds won everywhere except in a few Hampton Roads independent cities and Alexandria. What happened in this race echoes the 1988 Democratic presidential primary: All the major candidates attacked Rep. Richard Gephardt (D, MO) leaving room for Dukakis to win. Moran attacked McAuliffe and McAuliffe attacked Moran allowing Creigh Deeds to sneak into Northern Virginia and win. Deeds must now beat Republican Bob McDonnell, the conservative Attorney General of Virginia. It will be a rematch because in 2005, Deeds lost to McDonnell by 360 votes for Attorney General in 2005 out of the 1.9 million cast. Yes, the 2005 election looks like Florida in 2000 but it was more gracious than that. I will explain how Deeds can develop a winning strategy in light of his strengths and weaknesses.
Creigh Deeds was the most Conservative Democrat running in the Gubernatorial Primary. Even though he is pro-choice, he is also pro-gun and the NRA endorsed him in 2005. He will probably get it again. The NRA endorsement helped him in rural areas but not in Northern Virginia. Still, it would be hard to believe that a pro gun control voter in Northern Virginia would support the very conservative McDonnell over Deeds. Since Tim Kaine, the Democratic Governor of Virginia won big in Northern Virginia in 2005, the Democratic voters came out in big numbers and Deeds will need that type of turn out once again. I believe he will do that because of backlash to McDonnell’s record and because of the type of showing Deeds showed in the primary. . He also ran strong in rural areas especially in his home House of Delegates district. Against McDonnell, he won Alleghany County in his home district with 75% of the vote. Even McCain won that county against Obama. Deeds’s district is located near the Shenandoah Valley and borders West Virginia. To win rural areas, Deeds must portray himself as a candidate who stands for rural issues as he showed in the primary. Another trouble spot for Deeds is the Hampton Roads area. . Bob McDonnell, a Virginia Beach resident won it by 15 points when John McCain barely won it against Obama. The only congressional district Deeds lost in the primary was an African American majority district that contained some Hampton Roads cities. Since the Hampton Roads area provided McDonnell with the margin he needed to become Attorney General. Hampton Roads has a large military population. Deeds can pull the race close if he can tout his Veterans record. Deeds wants tax relief for disabled Veterans and is a fan of Virginia’s Wounded Warrior Program. If he fails to make inroads there, he could try to win Loudon and Prince William Counties. They surround Fairfax County and since 2001, they almost always vote for the winner. If Deeds can paint McDonnell as an extreme religious right candidate, Deeds can win in Northern Virginia. Deeds has one problem in Northern Virginia: He is tough on illegal immigration which would help in Conservative areas but would hurt him among Hispanic voters in Northern Virginia. If Deeds can hold the voters he won in 2005, he can win because more D.C Liberals have moved into Virginia since 2005, making it easier for Deeds to win to pick up the additional votes. A recent state wide poll showed Deeds leading by six points. Was this just a post primary bounce or a harbinger for this election?
Bob McDonnell is a candidate with contrasts. Unlike Deeds, McDonnell is not a Virginia native. Even though Deeds will try hard to win Hampton Roads, McDonnell had military service while Deeds did not. Also, McDonnell’s home area is home to many evangelicals and McDonnell has close ties to Pat Robertson and that voting block. Those ties probably helped McDonnell enough in rural areas to enable him win against Deeds in 2005. Yet, those ties will hurt McDonnell in Northern Virginia where the population is generally averse to the Southern Virginia Religious Conservatives. Northern Virginia voted against then Sen. George Allen in 2006, against Jerry Kilgore who was the Republican Gubernatorial nominee in 2005. McDonnell needs to keep those ties to Pat Robertson to compete for votes in rural areas but also needs to shed them to compete in Northern Virginia. If Deeds wants to win, he needs to run ads in Northern Virginia highlighting McDonnell’s ties to Pat Robertson.
These are the main strengths, strategies and weaknesses of each candidate. Here is the winning strategy for Deeds: rack up large margins in Northern Virginia by campaigning there and running ads portraying Bob McDonnell as a religious Conservative with ties to Pat Robertson. Try to at least reduce the margins in Hampton Roads by spending time there and running ads promoting Deeds’s record on Veterans. In the rural areas, Deeds needs to run ads referring to him as “just another hardworking Virginian” and highlight his record on guns. If the NRA endorses him, he needs to run ads with their endorsement. Even though Loudon and Prince William Counties are considered the important key, I believe the key area is rural Virginia. The real bellwether county appears to be suburban Henrico County near Richmond. It has many Conservatives and African Americans. So on election night, watch not only Loudon and Prince William Counties but also Henrico County. Deeds should win the bellwether counties if he sticks to his strategy. The most important tactic he must use is just to well….be himself. He has a lovely family and a great personality. If Virginians can see that combined with his positions and record compared to McDonnell’s, they will probably vote for him.
Loading ...