ArkDem the Ragin Cajin – Page 2 – Swing State Project

Kirsten Gillbrand Chosen to Replace Clinton

According to this local news station, (link here: http://www.wpix.com/landing/?C… and the Albany Report, Kirsten Gillibrand has apparently become Patterson’s choice to replace Clinton and he intends to formally announce her as his appointee tommorrow with several Democratic members of the State Congressional Delegation. This shocking move effectively ends DavidNYC’s bid to become New York’s next Senator.

Here’s the article:

PIX News has learned Congresswoman Kirsten Gillibrand is the choice of Governor David Paterson to fill the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Hillary Clinton. Two Congressional sources tell PIX News that the Governor will make his announcement in Albany at noon tomorrow. He has invited members of the state’s Democratic Congressional delegation to join him.

The sources told reporter Marvin Scott that the Governor has called members of the delegation for their views after Caroline Kennedy withdrew herself from consideration. One of the contenders, longterm Congresswoman Carolyn Maloney canceled a scheduled appearance on “PIX News Closeup” Friday because of a “conflict,” which she did not disclose. She too will be in Albany. According to the sources, Gillibrand, now in her second congressional term, was favored by both Senator Churck Schumer and Secretary of State Clinton. Paterson has been under pressure to select a woman.

With most Democratic leaders in Albany coming from the New York City area, one source said this would be an important move for the Governor to have a Senator from upstate. And it is felt Gillibrand would be an asset to Paterson in any bid for election in 2010.

Gillibrand was sworn into office in January 2007 and is currently serving her first term as U.S. Representative to New York’s Twentieth Congressional District, which stretches across the upstate counties of Saratoga, Dutchess, Columbia, Rensselaer, Washington, Warren, Delaware, Greene, Essex and Otsego.

Gillibrand, who resides in Hudson, New York, is married and has two children, a four-year-old and an infant.

Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, who is considered the candidate with the most experience for the Senate, was a frontrunner. But the Congressional source told Scott, “appointing him would have presented the Governor with a problem of a successor,” one that could have led to a political battle in Albany, an appointment influenced by combative Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver and vote of the entire legislature.

As one source noted, “in politics you never know,” but based on the information they have heard and shared with PIX News Governor Paterson intends to name Kirsten Gillibrand as New York’s next Senator at a noon news conference tomorrow in Albany.

Let me just say I’m really excited about this. She was my choice candidate to being with; moderately liberal, intelligent, and she is well known and has a solid base of support in one of the more conservative leaning regions of the state. She keeps the seat invulernable from a challenge, she is a very good campaigner, and I like that she’s from upstate New York as this sends a signal that Democrats are no longer completely beholden to NYC, (which is one of the reasons upstate New York has tended to vote Republican, geography).

What do you all think about this development?

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Franken takes the LEAD!

Al Franken has taken the lead late in the process. The AP has reported it: http://www.google.com/hostedne… . The remaining challenges are mostly Franken’s so his lead is likely to grow from the 250 votes it is know, (according to dailykos.com), and even from the 2 votes it is according to the AP. There will probably be another recount, some more scrutiny about the rejected absentee ballots that Coleman tried to block and which will probably be reviewed. But, it at the end of it Franken holds a 100 + vote lead he should be seated, regardless of what Larry Sabato says about NH-Sen in 1974. After that much due process that election would be certified and scrutinized, proved beyond a doubt, and Democracy does not become invalid if the margin of victory is small.

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Meet John Fleming, Republican Candidate for LA-04

First off why hasn’t the DCCC been spending more hitting this guy? There seems to be a total lack of the hustle we showed in TX-23 in 2006.

First off, Fleming has been forced by the lack of any type of supporter base to self-fund himself to the degree of 900,000 of 1.3 million total. He’s a doctor from Minden, a small community near Shreveport. Why isn’t Carmouche running away with this seat? Republicans only got a third tier candidate, and he, Jeff Thompson, who had all the infrastructure support of McCrery and the Chamber of Commerce, lost to this guy. Fleming had to go through a lot nastier primary, how has Carmouche not capitlized on this?

First off though, you should be concerned that Fleming could be a congressman. Fleming supports abolishing Social Security and our fairly weighted tax system in favor of a high national sales tax that would hurt poor and middle class people the most while largely allowed wealthy blessed people like him, that can waste a million dollars on a vanity congressional run and complain about high taxes at the same time, to be able to have to pay almost no taxes. A few thousand dollars at most, even if he makes six hundred thousand dollars or more.

Why are we not targeting this? Republicans really want this. The Republican Study Committee in the house has held fundraisers, Dick Cheney has come down, and the RCCC is spending heavily here. But the DCCC is just ah, so so here. They’re not spending much, or organizing much with staff. Where’s Clinton and others here? Where’s the hustles and fundraisers? Fleming is the definition of a far-right nucase and this isa great, rare opportunity, very rare opportunity, for Democrats to go after an open seat in Louisiana. Republicans are trying to held this far right doctor sneak in agianst the best interest of his district. He’ll work non-stop to block healthcare reform, and he will try to put forward his crazy ideas on social security and the tax system. Come on people, slacken up a bit, start working, both Carmouche, us, and the DCCC, John Fleming is about the worst Congressman a district could have, come on we cannot let Republicans end their year with a bright spot, holding a conservative open seat with a nutcase., we cannot give them the mo going into the 2009 elections and 2010 elections. Republicans are working harder than us here, because they now how important it is to win it. Same in Georgia. We’re becoming apathetic again, and that is my fear; that we’ll become a complacent party that no longer cares about competing in tough places and that’s the first step back down.

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Time to look at 2010, (never to early)

Okay but seriously. Some such as Mark have suggested Democrats will have their majority seriously tested next around. Okay, where?

Here are the Democratic seats up next time:

1. Ron Wyden, two + term incumbent, Oregon, presumably running for reelection.

2. Blanche Lincoln, Arkansas, two term incumbent, running for reelection.

3. Pat Murray: Washington, three term incumbent, presumably running for reelection.

4. Barbera Mikulski, Maryland, four term incumbent, presumably running for reelection.

5. Chuck Schumer, New York, two term incumbent, (previously won reelection 74-26 against a Republican candidate).

6. Patrick Leahy, Vermont, six term incumbent, Judiciary Committee Chairman, presumably running for reelection.

7. Russ Feingold, Wisconsin, three term incumbent, running for reelection.

8. Evan Bayh, Indiana, two term incumbent, very popular.**

Those are safe, almost certainly safe. All are popular incumbents, and most are in blue, if not downright liberal states.

These here might provide some problems.

1. Harry Reid, Nevada, if Jon Porter challenges him. But still Reid has to be a big favorite, especially after Nevada’s leap to Democrats.

2. Ken Salazar…if someone challenges him, maybe Coffman or McInnis, but after seeing 2008’s results can you see anyone beating Salazar in Colorado, and the state is only getting bluer. Not to mention he’s an actual moderate.

3. Barbera Boxer: If she retires, or gets a challenge from Schwartznegger, this could be mildly interesting. She’s never been especially popular. California is getting more liberal all the time.

4. Daniel Inouye: Hawaii, if he retires, at age 86, could be trouble if Ligle runs, but after Obama’s margin this time, whew. I don’t see voters electing a conservative like Ligle to a federal, national position over Rep. Mazie Hirono, who Ligle beat very narrowly in 2002 in a good environment for Republicans, particularly in Hawaii. Republicans have since given back a lot of ground in Honolulu and the State Legislature. If he stays he should win easily, as he is a universally popular, legendary figure in their politics, kind of like Robert Byrd in West Virgina.

5. Obama’s open seat, but really, what Republican is going to win state wide in the New Illinois? It’s been a while since that happened in a high profile race and they have no bench.

6. Delaware: Same thing here. There might be Mike Castle, if he were to run for senate at age 71. Even then I’m don’t think he would be favored to beat John Carney or Beau Biden.

7. Chris Dodd’s open seat might be a big race if Rell decides to run for it. But then I think that Rep. Murphy would be strongly favored in a neutral environment.

8. This is the seat I would worry most about. North Dakota’s Byron Dorgan has been a popular figure in state politics for almost 30 years, but the state has an automatic Republican inclination, and Republicans would definitely be pushing extroadiniarily popular Governor John Hoeven who easily beat the two Attorney General in 2000 to win it the first place, then won his two subsequent elections with 77% of the vote. This would be a slash of the titans. Hoeven would have to have a narrow lead. The only problem is that I don’t think Hoeven wants to be a senator. Republicans have asked him to run twice before, (in 2004 and 2006), and Rove practically pleaded with him in early 2006, looking at a poll that had him six points ahead of Kent Conrad. I see no reason why he’d suddenly run 2010.

Okay, those are a few races Republicas might have a shot in, not even a big shot, if everything went their way and they got their dream candidates.

So, Democrats hold 16 seats, Republicans 17, it’s at near parity.

Republicans have got to be nervous about these seats though.

1. Arlen Specter. His margins keep going down every time in the state wide Senate races. Ed Rendell is not going to challenge him, but there are plenty of Congressman who might, or in the Democrats case, congresswoman, Allyson Schwartz, who represents most of Montgomery county.

2. George Voinovich wants to run for reelection in Ohio, but how well would he do. He’s getting old, and he’s popularity ratings have been mediocre for years now. I always give him a small bit of affection for being the sane Republican who effectively blocked John Bolton, (forcing an interim appointment). But the Democratic bench is now two feet deep in Ohio. LG Lee Fisher, Attorney General Richard Cordray, Rep. Betty Sutton, and strongest of all Rep. Tim Ryan, a popular moderate. Voinovich looks toast at this point.

3. KY-SEN: Bunning is unpopular, a loud mouth, and a poor campaigner. He’s won his two races by .5 percentage points, and one percentage points, respectively and looks set to face his toughest challenger yet in Rep. Ben Chandler. Especially if he repeats his shennanigans of the last campaign. Kentucky Senate races tend to be close too.

4. KS-SEN: Kathleen Sebelius is said to looking at a run for this open senate seat. She would make it competetive.

5. OK-SEN: Gov. Brad Henry could beat Coburn, who isn’t a good campaigner and isn’t popular.

6. AZ-SEN: John McCain’s probably going to retire, that leaves his seat open to either Napilotano, or Rep. Giffords, depending on if Napilitano is Attorney General or not.

7. David Vitter is up, and his deal with prostitutes really hurts him with evangelical voters. Former Rep Don Cazayoux may be the candidate to beat him, or former Rep Chris John in a rematch.

8. FL-SEN: Mel Martinez has weak favorables and early polls show him tied with Rep. Ron Klein and Rep Kathy Castor.

9. Richard Burr, North Carolina. This seat has reelected an incumbent since 1962. Rep. Brad Miller is an oft mentioned name, but so is popular Attorney General Roy Cooper who has nowhere to go this year but up. Richard Burr is extremely conservative as well, and not especially popular. This would be a barnburner with Cooper.

So there are a lot of competitive races next time around. None especiailly likely for the Democrats, except for North Dakota if the Republicans somehow convince Hoeven that being a popular governor at home is not as good as being a weak new freshman senator in the minority party a thousand miles away. Not saying they couldn’t really gain steam, but I don’t see them picking up more than 2 seats.

At this point, I would gurantee that Democrats pick up at least two seats, at least, given the landscape, but the number could be as high as six if they get all their candidates, and everything goes right for them and Barack Obama is a popular President.

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Jackson costs Cazayoux the election

Final 48-40-12

Election Predictions

Not comprehensive, but still 15 pages long and written in three hours.

Sorry I didn’t include exact percentages and in-depth analysis for all the congressional races and toss up Presidential states, but I just didn’t have the time and energy, it was too large of a project to put off until 5:10 today. As it stands it is 15 pages long, so, enjoy.

Election Predictions

All Right, I promised, so know I’m providing. After the election I’ll display the actual results compared to my predicted results.

Senate Races:

First let me begin with the major Senate races, my predictions and my brief analyses on them.

VA-SEN: Senator, umm, I mean Mr. Mark Warner is already getting his new name plates made. The only question is how much over 60% will the insanely popular former Governor get in this open seat race against his controversial and unpopular predecessor Jim Gilmore? I’m going with three points, and a 63-37 race. Gilmore only barely won his convention against a far-right nobody, and has been plagued by poor fundraising and campaigning from the very beginning. When universally popular and respected five term Senator John Warner, (no relation), announced his retirement last year at age 80, and Mark jumped in, that’s when every pundit knew this race was the Democrat’s to lose, and they definitely have not so far, in fact they’ve gotten every break they could hope to get. It looks this year like Virginia will complete its blue trend and have two Democratic Senators and a Democratic Governor for the first time since 1973. Obama is set to carry the state too, the first Democrat since 1964. Democratic pick up.

Mark Warner, (D), 63-37. Winner.

NM-SEN: When six term Senator Pete Domenici announced his retirement, admitting he had dementia, this seat became the hottest in the nation. Then popular U.S. Representative Tom Udall, of the famed western Kennedy’s family of Stewart and Mo Udall, jumped in. The states other two U.S. Representatives jumped in too, so that uniquely, all three of its US House seats were open as all were running for senate, (an open senate seat there doesn’t happen but every 30 years or so, so you’ve got to take the chance when you get it). Then in the primary far-right Steve Pearce, who represented the southern, conservative end of the state, won the primary over moderate Heather Wilson who represented the Democratic leaning area around Bernalillo county, (Albuquerque), over the wishes of the party elite, who with Domenici, (who had groomed Wilson as an heir), coalesced around Wilson. It was expensive, and divisive, and best of all Udall just got to sit back and watch, while amassing a huge warchest of money. In late summer Udall moved up into the mid 60s in polling, and the NRSCC wrote the race off, (that’s the National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee shortened),. However former Bush Press Secretary Ari Fletcher’s shady group Freedom’s Watch, spent heavily here, and Pearce spent millions. The race moved into single digits again after the Palin bounce, but since, with the economic crisis dominating the news and Udall retaking the airwaves his lead has moved back into the double digits.

Democratic pick up: Tom Udall, (D), 58-42. (On the conservative side). Winner

NH-SEN: This was the site of the infamous phone-jamming rig-up up by the NH-GOP. In 2002 they jammed the GOTV efforts of Democrats while three-term Democratic Governor Jeanne Shaheen was in a narrow race with U.S. Representative John Sununu, (son of the Bush chief of Staff and former NH Governor John Sununu), he won by six thousand votes in a year that was very favorable to Republicans. Well, several Republicans went to jail, including some from the RNC, (Republican National Committee), and the NH-GOP was ordered to pay the NH-DP several hundred thousand dollars of reparations, (imagine that as a fundraising pitch to the base, “Donate to us so we can pay your money to the other side”). Anyhow, Shaheen is back this year, and running a better campaign in a much better environment. Sununu has consistently been too strongly conservative for this Democratic leaning state, (trending more all the time). Factor in the face that he’s been behind consistently in every poll for over a year, and you get where I’m going. Shaheen has a high single digits lead in the tail end of the campaign, and the NRSCC also seems to writing this race off. Sununu retains a devoted following, but with Obama surging here late, the one break he hoped to have help him is gone, (McCain coattails, or at least a lack of Obama coattails). Democratic Pick up.

So, projected: Jeanne Shaheen (D) 54-46, winner.

CO-SEN: Another Udall! Tom’s second cousin Mark, from a few hundred miles up north, representing Boulder, Colorado and some of Denver’s inner suburbs. Mark’s about ten years younger, and in the slightly more Republican state, (but rapidly trending Democratic), of Colorado. Now its becoming a Democratic state along with the rest of the southwest. Here too, like Virginia and New Mexico, (though New Mexico was the only one with a primary), conservative Republicans pushed out the more moderate candidate in favor of a more reactionary conservative. Mark Udall has had a upper single digits lead in polling for about two years, but has recently pulled away, along with Obama in the state that McCain has now written off in favor of Pennsylvania. Udall is fairly liberal actually, but he has won the battle of who can moderate themselves and move closer to the center in this race. Schaffer is not backing down from his conservative beliefs, and he will lose. Democratic Pick up.

Projected: Mark Udall, (D), 55-45, winner.

AK-SEN: Well, it’s hard to get elected when you’ve been indicted on seven counts of fraud. That’s what happened to the longest serving Republican Senator in history, Ted Stevens, first elected in 1968, and currently 84 years old. Add into the mix a popular Democrat, Anchorage, (home of two thirds of the state’s population), mayor Mark Begich, son of former Congressman Nick Begich who disappeared along with House Majority Leader Hale Boggs in a mysterious 1973 plane crash, (presumed), on the way to Juneau. The conviction sealed Steven’s fate, as his whole campaign theme was vote for me because of my clout, and that the prosecutors were targeting him unfairly. Both arguments are gone now, and McCain has even called for the Senator to resign, as has Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. Voters now he will probably be expelled from the Senate on a bi-partisan vote if reelection, so, (and the polls show this), Begich has regained his lead and is extremely likely to win this, being the first Democrat election to a federal office in Alaska since 1974, (with Mike Gravel, actually, anyone remember his run for the Democratic Presidential nomination this time around?). Democratic Pick up.

Projection: Mark Begich, (D), (how weird, after having no Marks in the Senate now we’ll have three), 53-47. Winner over Ted “The Incredible Hulk” Stevens.

NC-SEN: Just a quick lesson, you don’t run a campaign ad calling your opponent, a former Sunday School teacher and fifth generation Presbyterian, Godless. You also don’t flash her face on the screen while a paid actress says “There is no God”. Now Bob Dole’s wife, first term senator Elizabeth Dole was still behind, but that ad sealed her defeat, and the very last polls confirm it. The DSCC, (the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee), has been brutally affective here, calling into question Dole’s effectiveness as a Senator, and attacking her for only spending about 18 days a year in the state she represents. “The Rocking Chair Ad” was perhaps the best ad in terms of effectiveness, in a number of years. State Senator Kay Hagan, Chairwoman of the State Senate Finance committee, has been running a strong campaign though, crisscrossing the state and effectively beating Dole in every measure. She won her primary huge, and surged, so Dole spent two million of her warchest to try to nip it at its bud, but this only worked about a month before the DSCC came in and shot her numbers in the polls back down. Hagan has had a consistent lead, and last minute polls from SUSA and PPP, and Rasmussen show Hagan moving firmly ahead, above 50% and outside the margin of error. Still going to be close though, but…Democratic Pick up.

Projection: Kay Hagan (D), 52-48, winner.

OR-SEN: Two Term Senator Gordon Smith, (also related to the Udalls), hasn’t done anything wrong, he’s just a Republican in Oregon and his record as a moderate is paper thin. All the top tier Democrats turned this race down before State House Speaker Jeff Merkley finally jumped in. He had to fight a contentious primary with a vicious left-wing activist who almost won, and then his campaign spent months in the gutter, running poorly and letting the fairly conservative, (in comparison to past Republicans, like Mark Hatfield, who represented Oregon), Smith maintain a double digit lead in the ever more liberal state of Oregon. Then back in August he started turning his ship back around, moved in the polls, the DSCC came in guns barreling, and Smith’s campaign went in the gutter and he permanently alienated many conservatives who already disliked him for his moderate profile by running an ad talking about being a close ally of Barack Obama. The race moved to a tie after the economic downturn, and now Merkley has, to the envy of those who turned the race down, moved ahead and is sitting pretty at just under 50% in several polls, and is ahead now of Smith, with a lead outside of the polls MoE, or margin of Error. Disgruntled conservatives are casting a lot of votes for the third party candidate, and Smith now sports a double digit disapproval rating, the kiss of death. Democratic Pick Up.

Projection: Jeff Merkley, winner (D), 51-45, four going to Steven Frohnmayer, (I).

MN-SEN: Going to say as little as I can here. What a wasted opportunity though. Norm Coleman has a been a solid conservative, (voting with the party line 98% of the time in 2003, 2004, and 2005, on issues where a majority of one party voted against a majority of the other party). This was after he ran in 2002 promising to be a moderate voice in the senate. He only won because Democrat Paul Wellstone died in a plane wreck a week before the election after skipping a fundraising event and Rally with Walter Mondale and Ted Kennedy to attend the funeral of the father of a State Representative. Mondale proved unable to win as a last minute replacement. This year all the good candidates turned down the race for some reason, and Democrats are stuck with Al Franken, enough said, even though Franken has made the race close, he’s done it polling in the upper thirties, with Independent Party Dean Barkley, an ally of former wrestling Governor Jesse Ventura, taking a double digit slice of the polls. Coleman will win, despite his unpopularity. I don’t share other Democrats optimism here. Republican Hold.

Projection: Norm Coleman ®, 44-41-15, winner.

These next races could determine whether Democrats get a filibuster proof senate that will actually be able to, you know, make any major changes.

KY-SEN: That’s right, the Republican Minority leader is again in the fight for his life down in the bluegrass state. Democrats are licking their chops over the chance to destroy the Republican leadership and, more importantly, avenge Tom Daschle’s narrow defeat in 2004 at the hands of John Thune. However, Bruce Lunsford is no John Thune, and that’s the reason McConnell holds his seat. That and he has a massive, ironclad statewide organization, and has spent fourteen million on the race. The polls are close, but Kentucky is a conservative state. Republican Hold.

Projection: Mitch McConnell, ®, 53-47, winner.

MS-SEN: Trent Lott retired, and Haley Barbour appointed congressman Roger Wicker to the seat, surprising many who saw Congressman Chip Pickering Jr. as the heir apparent. (Pickering later retired abruptly to become a lobbyist). Democrats got former Governor Ronnie Musgrove, a highly conservative Democrat born on what was little more than a sharecroppers plot and broken down house and who lost his father as a teenager, forcing him to work to support his family. The race was initially promising, and close, but Wicker has pulled away, despite the economic downturn. Now, even if polls are overstating Wicker’s portion of the black vote, (an outrageously high 26% in the last one,; it’s never usually out of the single digits), Musgrove’s still down and looks to have lost this one. If the black turnout is insanely high and he wins those votes 96-4 though, look for a possible upset in steamy Mississippi. Republican Hold.

Projection: Roger Wicker, ®, 52-48. Winner.

GA-SEN: Now this is what real revenge feels like. After Saxby Chambliss won by accusing Democratic Senator Max Cleland of being unpatriotic and weak on terrorism in 2002, Democrats felt a hot hatred. Showing Cleland’s face beside Osama Bin Laden went over the line. As Cleland was a Vietnam war veteran, triple amputee, and former Secretary of Veteran Affairs, while Chambliss got a draft deferment so he wouldn’t have to serve in Vietnam. Former State Representative Jim Martin’s been moving ever since a big primary win of Vernon Jones, a former DeKalb county something. Anyway, when you’ve been accused of rape its not good for political campaigns. Martin lost by twelve points to Casey Cagle in the open Lieutenant Governor’s race back in 2006, but Georgia looks to have moved a lot further back towards the center since then. The DSCC is spending heavily heavy, (5.8 million by election, which is a lot, even in a big and expensive state like Georgia), and Chambliss has unloaded everything to no avail. The race remains a 3-4 point race, and Chambliss peaks out at 48% in the polls. This is likely to go to a run-off and make this long political season even longer. Once we get to the run-off then I can take a look and analyze the landscape there. RUN-OFF.

Last Senate Race.

LA-SEN: Republicans continue to play this field, and Louisiana is increasingly Republican, but polls continue to show Landrieu with the safe lead. As a state resident, I’m worried about this one. Some tightness here that I don’t think others feel or predict. Democratic Hold.

Projection: Mary Landrieu (D), 51-49.

Now for a quick go on Gubernatorial races. There only three that you really need to watch, four actually. The rest will be blowouts.

IN-GOV: Democrats thought they had a shot because Daniels was unpopular, but a tenuous primary and a poor general election campaign from former U.S. Representative Jill Long Thompson, along with a good campaign from Daniels, has led to this one moving out of reach. Bad news come redistricting time in 2010. Republican Hold

Projection: Mitch Daniels ®, 55-45. Winner.

WA-GOV: The rematch from the 2004 election. Christine Gregoire won by one hundred and twenty nine votes, yes, 129 votes, out of 2.7 million cast. Similar controversy to Florida, except the Democrat came on top of this one. Dino Rossi is running again, but Gregoire has established herself as an incumbent, and managed to attain a mild popularity though her simply effectiveness at getting things done. Still, far right groups such as the builders association are heavily pushing Rossi again this time, who is not running under the Republican brand, but under the “GOP Party” as he loses two points in the polls just by running as a “Republican”. This race has been locked at 51-48 Gregoire in every poll for two years. Things haven’t changed a bit. Obama’s huge coattails and her already narrowly put her on top though, and for the seventh time in a row, Washington State will elect a Democrat as its governor. Democratic hold.

Projection: Christine Gregoire, (D), 50.5-49.5, winner.

MO-GOV: Look, Democrats pick this up. Four term Attorney General Jay Nixon has been the favorite from day one. Governor Matt Blunt is deeply unpopular, and U.S. Representative Kenny Hulshof had to contend with a divisive primary and has failed to poll well in the general election. Democratic pick up.

Projection: Jay Nixon, (D), 56-44, winner.

NC-GOV: Closer than it should be, but Beverly Perdue had to run a contentious primary campaign, and has then run a poor campaign in the General election. Still, polls show her tied with Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory. Democrats have held this for sixteen years straight, with only one Republican governor in the history of the state in between. With Obama making this close though, she should be able to pull ahead. Democratic Hold.

Projection: Beverly Perdue, (D), 50.3-49.7, winner.

Now I can’t, and just don’t have the time or the will power to write out histories for all the congressional races in one sitting. I’ll just lay out projections for you, okay?

Democratic Pick ups:

CA-04: Charlie Brown (D) (open due to scandal)

WA-08: Darcy Burner (D) beats Dave Reichert

ID-01: Walter Minnick, (D). (I’ll give you examples of this one though).*

AZ-01: Anne Kilpatrick (D). (open due to scandal)

NM-01: Martin Heinrich oh you know they’re Democrats

NM-02: Harry Teague (open)

CO-04: Betsy Markey beats Marilyn Musgrave, in Democratic trending district.

NV-03: State Senate Minority leader Dina Titus, against 3-term inc. Jon Porter. Democratic trending Clark county district.

LA-04: Paul Carmouche (D)

FL-08: Alan Grayson, Democratic trending Orlando based district

FL-24: Suzanne Kosmas, (note, don’t run an ad apologizing for receiving a bribe from Jack Abramoff, it just doesn’t work, even in moderately Republican leaning districts, though this one is trending Democratic fast).

NC-08: Hayes is losing this time around. It didn’t help that he said “Democrats hate real Americans that work and have jobs and believe in god” at a McCain rally. Obama will win this district, as he is in polling, and over 25% of the district is black. Larry Kissell win after losing by 369 votes last time.

13. VA-05: Look for me to be the only one predicting this. Virgil Goode has had an interesting career. First a elected as a Democrat in 1996, he was so upset by Clinton that he became an independent and then a Republican. He’s controversial, and has made some bigoted, close minded remarks. But, late in this campaign season its come out that a movie called “Eden’s Curve” an artsy, movie about a Danville, (Goode’s hometown and located within his district I believe), teenager who goes to College in New York and explores his sexuality with his English Professor, is dedicated to Goode, and his Press Secretary even had a minor role in it. The movie openly depicts both homosexual and heterosexual sex scenes, foul language, and a savage beating. Now, being religious as he is this makes him look hypocritical. The truth is the whole story is rather weird and covered in layers of crap. Goode still probably has nothing to do with it, but the explanation is long and complicated and I doubt voters are willing to pay attention enough to hear after this many months of campaigning. Tom Perriello is running a strong campaign as a specialist in foreign policy. He’s been campaigning hard against Goode who largely ignored him almost right up till the end. He was down 64-30 in August, then 55-42 in September, and now on the election’s eve he’s down 50-47, and ahead by double digits in early voters, (twelve percent of the electorate). If the black vote is high I look for the upset. I’m still going to give it to him here. I missed several races like this back in 2006, mainly Jason Altmire, Nancy Boyda, Jerry McNerney, and Carol Shea-Porter.

14. VA-11: This district’s trended Democratic. Gerry Connelly has this one in the bag over a self-funder.

15. MD-01: Another surprise. Kravotil wins it because of geographical divides, and the fact that widely popular, liberal Republican incubment Wayne Gilchrest, (one of the few I really highly respected), has endorsed him and cut an ad for him over the Club for Growth funded Andy Harris who beat him in the primary. Bush got 61% of the vote here, but Kravotil’s running the right kind of campaign about independent voice and all that. Clsoe, but I think a pick up, especially with all the money the DCCC has dumped in here in the closing days of the campaign, (the same with VA-05).

16. PA-03: Kathy Dalhkemper has run a surprisingly good race and no looks to be the narrow favorite.

17. NY-13: Don’t even make me get started on this soap opera. Mike McMahon will win easily.

18. NY-25: Dan Maffei wins easily this time around, now that its an open seat and all the best Republicans declined to run.

19. NY-29: Wesley Clark chief of staff Eric Massa is doing really well in his rematch against Randy “threatened my wife with a shotgun at a dinner party” Kuhl. He wins this time.

20. CT-04: I just really don’t see Chris Shays hanging on again. Jim Himes wins after running a good campaign and with Obama’s huge coattails.

21. OH-01: Again, I just don’t see Chabot pulling it out this time. Steve Dreihaus seems to be the right Democrat to win this 50-50 swing district, (literally 50-50 in the last two elections).

22. OH-15: Mary Jo Kilroy is definitely favored in the demographic trends here. Steve Shrivers is the best candidate Republicans could have hoped for though.

23. OH-16: Iraq war vet and state Senator John Boccieri is tailor made for this blue collar, Republican leaning swing district. He’s also run the better campaign over State Sen. Kirk Shuring.

24. MN-06: Michelle Bachman’s comments are infamous. Elwyn Tinklenburg, (what a political name) has raised an additional one million dollars in one week since her comments. He had already raised one million, so the moderate former State Secretary of Transportation has moved ahead in the polls too.

25. MN-03: I still think that Madia will win this, even if he has fallen behind in some of the polling.

26. AK-AL: Young is tackled by corruption to. Ethan Berkowitz becomes the second new Democrat to Alaska’s congressional delegation.

27. FL-21: okay, suitcases full of cash smuggled in from Puerto Rico. Not a good headline for an incumbent. That and the changing values of younger Cuban-Americans who are becoming more and more Democratic, and a strong Democrat in Raul Martinez, make this a narrow pick up between two titans in the Miami Cuban Community. The other two Cuban Republican held seats should be safe, but just barely, that will be clsoe races.

Republican Pick Ups:

1. PA-11: Kanjorski has lost this to far-right Lou Barletta. How incredible.

2. TX-22: Nick Lampson can’t hold Tom DeLay’s seat this time around. Pete Olson wins.

3. FL-16: A couples of words, BRIBED campaign worker after she threatened to reveal he cheated on his wife with her and several other campaign workers. Pittsburgh Steeler’s heir Tom Rooney wins this.

Possible Shockers, (both parties), R and D stand for the party that would pick up a if there is an upset:

1. WY-AL: Trauner is just a little behind, but may pull it off. D.

2. VA-02: Same with Glen Nye.

3. WV-02: 91 year old Robert Byrd is trying to groom a successor here. Anne Barth may have what it takes. D.

4. PA-12: Murtha stuck his foot in his mouth again. R.

5. KS-02: I don’t expect Boyda to lose. R.

5. GA-08: Goddard has kept this one close in this very Republican, Macon centered district, but Marshall is a conservative Democrat and a good campaigner with a political base in Macon. R.

6. SC-01: A note, don’t break a law and then change it to get out of the penalty. Just saying… D. Linda Ketner has run a good, well-funded campaign, but the District may just be too Republican for her to beat four term incumbent. And she’s openly gay, in the bible belt.

7. AL-02: Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright might just pull this off in this 2:1 Republican district, (was 66-33 in 2005). He’s got the endorsement of two of the districts biggest Republicans, including one who is McCain’s campaign chair for that region of the state. His background from the wiregrass area of the district, combined with his record in the Montgomery area make him the perfect Democrat to hold it. Did I mention Republicans were originally trying to get him to run for the open seat too? He’s that conservative. D.

8. NE-02: Lee Terry continues to decline as Omaha becomes more Democratic.

9. AZ-05: Bob Lord has run a great, well financed campaign, and hit Shadegg hard on his (un)-retirement. Still, this district was drawn to elect a Republican. D.

10. NV-02:This conservative, huge Nevada district could be an upset, but probably not. D

Presidential Election:

Obama holds all of Kerry’s state’s, plus picks up Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, and Ohio. The total end result will be Obama 311 electoral votes, McCain 227. Obama will win 51-47 in popular, give or take a percentage point, and some very close races in Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Indiana, and Nevada, even Virginia, though Obama has moved solidly in front according the last polls of the race. Hard to see how McCain holds all the toss ups and improbably picks up Pennsylvania to win.

11. IA-04: Becky Greenwald is close, and htis is a toss up district. D.

12. Mo-09: State Rep. Judy Baker’s running strong, but this is a conservative district. D.

I’d put on the actual results Wednesday, if they’re all in.

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DSCC Drops Five Million in Georgia!

According to: http://www.nj.com/us-politics/… and http://www.californiachronicle…

make it clear that the DSCC is going all out in Georgia. They’ve spent 2.8 million on hardhitting ads against Chambliss, and at their current rate are set to spend FIVE million by election day. Which is a lot even for an insanely expensive state like Georgia. This is about what I thought they should do, how far in I thought that they should go. They’re raising the stakes.

I think what they’re really trying to to do is ensure that the race goes to a runoff, as Chambliss is hovering in the upper 40s. After that watch as the DNC and DSCC spend like 20 mil to take the race away from a completely beaten, demoralized Republicans, like with Ciro against Bonilla last time. He as way behind, got outspent, and still won big. Imagine how exacted all the Democrats are going to be, and Republicans aren’t even going to be bothering to show up at the polls. The turnout in a runoff definitely favors the Democrat in those kinds of conditions.

P.S. Please vote in my poll, I use it as a counter to see how many people have a read a post I’ve made, thanks.

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The Biggest Evironmental Disaster in American History!

This will likely be the longest post I have ever written. But I can’t make claim to most of it, or for the inspiration of writing it. Both those go to Mike Tidwell, whose book, Bayou Farewell: The Tragic Death of Louisiana’s Cajun Coast, was an amazing eye opening book, the best travelogue, and the best environmental expose that I have ever seen, ranking at the very top of the best non-fiction books that I have read.

The problem? The greatest environmental disaster in country is happening, right now, on Louisiana’s coastline, and nobody is doing anything about, in fact, no one, not environmental activists, know about it.

Swampy South Louisiana, unbeknownst to most people, contains a staggering 25% of America’s total wetlands, 40% of its salt marsh. This area contains a massive ecosystem, as Tidwell notes:

Wetland habitats hold the title as the most biologically productive areas on earth, and the great range of plant and animal life found within Louisiana’s coastal zone provides food and protection for no fewer than 353 species of birds residing here at some point during the calendar year.

The area is also one of the nation’s largest seafood producers, thanks to the marsh and swamp.

Before the morning is out, he’ll pull in a respectable catch of 120 pounds, part of annual Louisiana crab harvest that has no equal anywhere outside of Alaska. Indeed, I learn later, that even in Maryland’s Chesapeake Bay region where I presently live and where the blue crab industry is a source of great local pride and eating crab cake borders on cult behavior-even there as much as a quarter of all crabs consumed actually come from Louisiana during some months.

Yet crabs are just one small part of the take in this massive estuarine waterscape of fresh, brackish, and saltwater habitats spread across endless bays, lagoons, inlets, and marshes shaped by the Mississippi River. Coastal Louisiana, by itself, accounts for an astonishing 30% of America’s annual seafood harvest, measured by weight.

Tidwell describes the beauty of this vast area:

What’s being lost is an American Treasure, a place as big as the Everglades and just as beautiful, where sky and marsh and wildlife converge, where millions of migratory birds thrive on wetlands that once served as muse to John James Audubon.

What exactly is happening? Well, since the 1930s, Louisiana has already lost an amount of land the size of the state of Delaware. Today, more than fifty acres of land are lost everyday, every ten months Louisiana loses an area the size of Manhattan. An area the size of the state of Connecticut will wash away in the coming decades, three million square acres of barrier islands, marsh and wetlands.

Why has this happened? It is not nature made, this is an entirely man-made conundrum, and, again, allow to use several of Tidwell’s sharpest words here, as they say it best.

Today, throughout the wetlands of lower Louisiana, more than ten thousand miles of such pipe lie underwater-criss-crossing, interlocking, overlapping, going everywhere. And to lay pipe across this ocean of marsh grass, an area so vast it’s often called the “trembling prairie” with its pudding like mud below, requires the construction of canals: straight and narrow streets of water dredged four or five feet deep, knifing through the grass…

“This?” I say. With a girth of about two hundred feet, the water almost as wide as Bayou Lafourche itself, I had simply assumed it was another large bayou meandering to the gulf. But Tee Tim informs me this stretch of water began as a roughly thirty foot canal builtby Texaco in the early 1960s…

“This is happening because the Mississippi River doesn’t flood anymore?” I ask Tim…

Reading up on the subject later, I learn that tattered boot of Louisiana was created exclusively by the mighty hand of the Mississippi…

Then came the worst deluge of all, the Great Flood of 1927, which killed over a thousand people in Arkansas, Mississippi, and Louisiana. Intending to end such outburst once and for all, the U.S. Corps of Engineers after 1927 perfected the construction of massive, unbreachable levees along the entire lower Mississippi. This has frozen the river in its present course, which streams past New Orleans and out into the Gulf where its sediments no longer create any land whatsoever, tumbling instead thousands of feet over the cliff-like edge of the continental shelf.

Adding to the damage is an effect called “intrusion” where salt water moves into freshwater. Driving the oysters, alligators and freshwater fish further inland, and, killing thousands of trees. In Houma, in Terrebonne Parish about eighty to a hundred miles South of Baton Rouge you can drive down certain roads and see the groves of hundreds of dead old growth oak and cypress trees.

I recently learned that oil companies had for decades engaged in abusive practices, including dumping massive amounts of a toxic drilling by-product known as brine into holes dredged into the marsh, the dredging which, of course, weakned the marsh more and made it break up more rapidly and letting this toxic chemical spread out over a vast area. Oil Companies did this until 1990. Then there’s the canal’s they cut in the swamp, ten thousand miles of them. These rapidly speed up erosion so much that a canal that was thirty feet wide twenty years ago is over 200 feet wide today. They also let in salt water into the freshwater estuaries which kills thousands of trees and further weakens the soil by destroying freshwater wetland ecosystems. The canals are the main cause of the massive intrusion seen over the last few decades, leaving it’s haunted mark over all the land. Tree graveyards.

The Louisiana coastline is moving inward at a rate of half a mile per year, per year, in places. One of second cousins in Houma had a no hunting sign up about thirteen feet from the waters edge. Eight Months later, eight months, that sign was five feet out in the water. Eighteen feet of ground gone in eight months. Some people are keeping entire towns and neighborhoods together by dumping tens of thousands of tons of oyster shells where there is no soil or a road has completely disapeared. They even use Christmas trees, thousands of them to break waves and try to create new marsh when all of these programs are very useless and the 2050 plan is the only scientifically proven mass-scale plan to save my states beautiful and extremely ecologically important coastline.

The eventual result would the wearing away of the entirety of Louisiana’s jagged, boot-like coastline to something much further inland that was more resemblant to Mississippi and Alabama.

This is the biggest environmental disaster in the United States today. And, Tidwell concurs with this assessment in his book, though he is an admitted dedicated environmentalist. Look at what he states:

The Chesapeake Bay, of course, was another enormous estuary system in decline…But the bay, I realized, had two major factors on its side: much of America understood it was a threatened gem, and relatively aggressive programs were in place to try to bring it back to health. Most importantly, unlike the Louisiana Bayou region, the Chesapeake wasn’t literally disappearing…

Similar thoughts came to mind as I reached the Great Smoky Mountains where acid rain was poisoning thousands of acres of spruce firs and northern hardwoods at higher elevations…

The same held for the Everglades, which lay a few hundred miles away as I rolled further southward, edging the Florida Panhandle. There, not only was is possible to bring back this huge wetlands complex after a century of abuse, but it was actually being accomplished with a recently passed 7.8 billion dollar federal and state rescue plan…

Meanwhile, coastal Louisiana continued its headlong spring toward a point of no return- unsalvageable, perhaps forever- and virtually no one had an inkling. This despite the fact that it provides…plus the practical benefits of a fifth of American domestic oil, a huge amount of it’s seafood, and hurricane protection for nearly 1% of it’s population. These were all functions neither the Everglades, nor the Chesapeake, despite their many merits, could claim.

Why does nobody no about it. Well, the main ideas tossed around are the fact that south Louisiana is so far away from any major news outlets, it’s not near a massive population like the Everglades and Chesapeake Bay, and it doesn’t get the same tourism. 20 million to South Florida every year, less than a tenth of that to South Louisiana, and very little of that to tour the Bayous and see the beautiful and unique coastline of marshes and barrier islands.

And, this is important, not only because of the environmental impact and natural beauty, as mentioned by Tidwell, but also because every 2.7 miles of marsh grass absorb one foot of a hurricane’s storm surge, and therein lies the real reason New Orleans’ leaves failed. In 1960 more than fifty miles of marsh lay between it and the sea, now that number is twenty five mils. The marsh and barrier islands serve as a major natural buffer for hurricanes for the state’s two million + people, some 1.2 million of them living in the southern part of the state that would get smacked hardest by Hurricanes.

He finds out later along his journey, there is a way to stop this, there is a way to save Louisiana’s coastline but we must get to it. Let me quote his epilogue.

Unfortunately, the marsh almost everywhere else along the coast continues its rush toward oblivion, with land still disappearing at the astonishing rate of 25-35 square miles a year. As if this wasn’t enough, a new threat has emerged. Fishermen and biologists have begun to notice huge areas of previously healthy green marsh suddenly turning brown and dying all along the coast…

Whatever the cause, the vast and sickening new swaths of marsh began to die at such a rate that Louisiana Governor Mike Foster, as avid duck hunter across the wetlands, finally became alarmed. Foster organized an event that restoration activists had been seeking for years: a summit of state business leaders, conversationalists, scientists, civic leaders, and government officials designed to fully commit the entire state to saving the coast.

The bill they came up with is the Coast 2050 plan, designed to cure all the problems, by instituting a massive rebuilding of barrier islands, and an equally massive controlled artificial diversions of the Mississippi River. In several, small areas, (30-40 thousand acres), have been done already to remarkable success. In those areas not only has the erosion stopped, there has also been a gain of new land and new marsh. It also calls in for the filling in of all oil pipe “canals”, which are an abusive environmental practice that has caused intrusion and rapidly sped up the natural erosion. It even plants thousands of acres of new marshland.

The full scale project could be done with 14 billion dollars, the cost of six weeks in Iraq to save three million acres of wetland that are more than worth it. It hasn’t been done yet though, pressure needs to be put representatives to sponsor and bring this bill to the floor and get it passed. Quickly. Rita and Katrina did a great deal more damage and sped up the process. Old groves of trees are dying faster, and, if we do not get started on the project in the next decade, (it is a long-scaled project), we may not be able to save and rebuild Louisiana’s coast.

This is so important. I’m glad we’re spending billions to clean up Chesapeake, I’m glad we’re spending billions to repair the Everglades, but Louisiana needs fixing soon, it’s a bigger environmental disaster than either. It will completely cease to exist very soon if we do nothing. This cultural landmark and beautiful area. It would destroy one of the last truly unique individual American cultures, displaces hundreds of thousands of people and leave two million more much more vulnerable to hurricanes.

Also, I would so strongly recommend Mike Tidwell’s book. It is a great expose and travelogue, giving a fascinating insight into the Cajun culture and world, where there are no malls, Wal-Marts, franchise stores. It’s a moving read full of vivid people and descriptions I can vouch for myself, (having been to the areas quite often and seen many of the places he describes myself).

Please help me spread awareness of this problem. Please help me get people involved with this.

P.S. Please vote in poll. There are no counters, so I use the poll to see how many people have read a given post. So, again, please vote so I can satisfy my own curiosity. Thank you.

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Mary Landrieu kicking off her campaign!

Unlike Kennedy’s mediocre kickoff party, Landrieu has really put the campaign into high gear. She has been through more than one hundred small towns across Louisiana since the year began, and recently began a big campaign swing through Baton Rouge, Lafayette, Monroe, Shreveport, Alexandria, Lake Charles and New Orleans; every major metropolitan area in the state.

She’s beating Kennedy to the airwaves, with her first ad about to go up, and available for viewing on her website, http://www.marylandrieu.com. She also pulled out the endorsements of 68 mayors yesterday.

Adding to the excitement Baton Rouge Daily Advertiser poltical columnist John Maginnis wrote: “has made impressive inroads in the GOP strongholds of Jefferson and St. Tammany parishes, where Republican elected officials laud her recovery efforts, and among business contributors who value her seniority in a largely junior delegation.” Confirming what Democrats have already said. He stated that Landrieu has criss-crossed the state announcing grants, and accepting endorsements, while Kennedy has not being much of anything but raising money. In short, the ground game is not even close at this point in time.

Let me give you the story on St. Tammany. St. Tammany parish is part ofthe suburban Northshore of New Orleans, it’s more affluent, white, and heavily Republican. It’s part of overwhelmingly Republican LA-01, which gave Bush 71% of the vote in 2004, and,with an estimated population of over 200,000 it compromises a full third of the districts population. Recently, the President of the Parish Police Jury, (like a county commission of sort, or county wide council that serves as the main governing body) Republican Kevin Davis endorsed Landrieu, citing her seniority and his personal experience working with her to get Katrina aid. At this kick off rally Mayson Foster, the mayor of Hammond, a port city of some 70,000, endorsed her, Candace Watkins, the Mayor of Covington, the small county seat, and the Parish accessor Patricia Core, all Republicans, endorsed Landrieu. The polling trends show more of the same, Landrieu is dominating in the entire New Orleans metro area, which includes much of the more conservative suburbs, she’s dominating in the Baton Rouge area, and she’s dominating as always in the Cajun, Bayou region of Charlie Melancon’s district. (By the way, pronounce that name Meh-laun-sawn, not Meh-lan-con, as I have heard it pronounced before). Kennedy is in the race because of huge leads in north Louisiana, where you’d think Landrieu and Obama were both the anti-Christ, (though Caddo and Rapides, the two most populous Parishes are trending Democratic, and heavy turnout among the black vote should ensure that both of these areas go Democratic, and then you also have some of the heavily black, rural counties, and a few traditionally Democratic areas that still vote that way), and an equally large lead in the southwest Acadiana area of Louisiana which has only grown more and more conservative as Lafayette’s population growth has been among the oil industry which has made a bunch of people very wealthy. A heavy black turnout here,and in Lake Charles and Opelousas would definitely help Landrieu. That’s why it’s good that Don Cravins Jr. is running, his presence and GOTV efforts drive even more voters to the polls.

Landrieu has gotten plenty of good press in the last week for rerouting 85 million dollars in Hurricane aid back to Louisiana, were in can be distributed to those storm refugees who are still in need of aid, and for announcing she had procured forty million dollars worth of funding for a biodiesel cellular plant in Jennings, La.

New Orleans Time-Picayune columnist Stephanie Grace wrote today that ‘Sen. Landrieu is in the strongest position of her career.’

In addition, I cannot wait for Landrieu to release the ad showing what Kennedy said just four years while endorsing John Kerry, namely that that the policies of George Bush were “cold and mean” and that his tax policy was “nonsense on a stick.” He later criticized the eventual winner, David Vitter, as a lackey of the Bush administration. Of course that was then, that was before Bush’s most corrupt and high level associate, Karl Rove had a talk with him, that was when he was running a populist campaign to the left of the establishment Democrat, Rep. Chris John, this is now, when he’s running as a new found conservative Republican. I’m sure that Kennedy would lose support within right wing base, with its hatred of flip floppers, when they hear about his change in heart. Of course, that didn’t stop Vitter from becoming his best bud, though thankfully Vitter’s popular image is shattered at the moment, and he has no political capital to help Kennedy.

The good news from this, it shows that Kennedy’s political views are completely amendable to whatever is politically expediant. It shows that if he wins, once elected, the Democrats have a large majority and more to offer him than Republicans, that he would ditch them in a heartbeat. Kennedy’s unscrupulous, and will do whatever it takes to get himself more power in the short term.

Among the more ridiculous statements that Kennedy has made is that Landrieu’s endorsement of Obama embodies the liberalism of old Europe. One, liberalism in Europe didn’t turn out so bad, because those countries have surpassed in amny areasdue to the Bush administrations incompetence, and the deteriorating state of our national infrastructures due to lackof money and innovation. Two, even more importantly, the connection even sounds irrelevant, and I don’t even get it. Three, voters are not concerned with Europe, or who she endorsed, they are concerned with the issues and who is going to do more for them.

Louisiana has lost most of its seniority. It invested all its eggs in Republicans, and then they lost control of Congress and it’s most powerful Republican retired, and the second retired. Then Rep. Jefferson lost all power due to corruption, and Vitter is ranked 85th in the Senate power scale. Landrieu is 10th, and holds spots on the Armed Services Committee and Appropriations Committee, as well as twelve years of Seniority. That is another reason why most of the down state business interests, in Baton Rouge, and New Orleans, and even the very conservative suburbs of LA-01, are tactically supporting Landrieu. She has a conservative record for a Democrat, so they can swallow it, and they want the person that can get the most done for them, and three it helps build relationships with the national party, who, as the majoriity party, you want good connections with, it’s just smart politics. This was seen in the Louisiana Chamber of Commerce’s endorsement of Landrieu a few months ago.

Finally, analysts are starting to realize that the damage to the LA-DP due to Katrina and Rita is not cataclysmic as they predicted for years, all the while writing obits for every Democratic statewide office holder. There was still a large loss of voters, and that Landrieu is doing this well is amazing, but, the Democratic trends in LA-04, and LA-06, the Shreveport and Baton Rouge metropolitan areas, respectively, have helped the party and pundits predict Democrats could hold both seats. In addition, Rapides Parish, home of the Alexandria statistical metropolitan area, and which is located in LA-05, Rodney Alexander’s district, is growing more Democratic, in voter registration, and voting registration.

Here is a layout of voter Demographics in major Parishes:

In the LA-06 special election we were helped by the favorable voter registration Demographics in East Baton Rouge, and that is what is making the district trend Democratic. There is a ten point gender gap, 55-45 in the women’s favor, which only helps Democrats because as a whole women tend to have more sense than men, (maybe its because they don’t have the testosterone), and are therefore more Democratic, it’s 39% black, and the largest age group, at 28.3%, is the 18-34 group, likely due to the presence of LSU. And, nationwide, that group is the most liberal emergin voting bloc. The actual number of registered Democrats does really matter in Louisiana because the numbers are grossly inflated with heritage Democrats who never actually vote for Democrats, or only do so on rare occasion.

In LA-04, Caddo Parishes registration Demographics will be an enormous asset, and explain it’s Democratic trend. 57% of its 157 thousand registered voters are women, 42% are black, and 25.5% are in the 18-34 age demographic that has proven to be some ten points favorable to Democrats than other age groups, in most states at least.

Rapides Parish also has a large gender gap, of nearly eleven points. 55.4, to 44.4, in favor of woman. Intersting to see was that only 21,000 black voters, or 27% of total voters, were registered to vote. This is not even half of the black population, and that means there is room to grow here by getting more voters registered. 23.6% of voters are in the 18-34 voter Demographic.

There are some Democratic oasis’ in Kennedy’s stronghold in Acadiana. 73% of Evageline Parishes voters are registered Democrats, which, even in Louisiana, gives any Democratic candidate a solid edge among its 22 thousand voters. There are others, Point Coupee, Iberville, Red River, and the three Mississippi delta parishes in Northeast Louisiana which are all mostly black, East Caroll, Tensas, and Nachitidotches Parish, in central Louisiana, a very Democratic area.

The two Congressional districts that are trending Democratic, and look like they could both be in our hands, LA-04 and LA-06, are actually very much alike. There’s a 9-10 point gender gap, just like their largest parishes, and the 18-34 voter Demographic is easily the largest in both.

Doing well enough in those parishes and holding down his margins in others would keep his margins down in the rest of Louisiana. If she can almost win a Parish like St. Tammany, and dominate in conservative leaning Orleans suburb parishes like Jefferson and St. Bernard, she can win this election. So, the demographics of the state are not against her, especially as the more and more black voters have registered, which only helps because her family has always done really well within the black community, starting with here father who was the last white mayor of New Orleans, in 1978, partly due to the fact that years earlier, he was the only white state Representative to oppose a Southern Manifesto like bill supporting segregation, and was defeated in reelection because of it.

All in all, it’s been a pretty good week for Landrieu, and the poll doesn’t show it because it was commissioned before the week began.

P.S. Please vote in the poll. There’s no counter built in, so I use to see how many people read something. So, if you read this, please vote, so I can satisfy my own curiosity.

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Jefferson? Convicted or…?

Unlike former Congressman Duke Cunningham–who is now serving time–recently-indicted New Orleans Congressman William Jefferson is not accused of putting earmarks into Congressional bills for companies that gave him things of value. Jefferson got no golden commodes or multi-million dollar yachts nor Jack Abramoff golfing trips to Scotland.

His family got some contracts to provide Internet services in Nigeria and other countries. And, in return, they… well, they provided Internet services. It’s kind of hard to make a case against a Congressman for a thing like that.

The U.S. Attorney (eager to keep his job by making a case against a Democrat?) was convinced Jefferson was doing bad stuff, but what?

So the U.S. Attorney decided to nail him the way 7 poor saps in Miami were nailed in that “major terrorist plot”–they took FBI money to participate in a plot the FBI dreamed up…something about blowing up a building in Chicago. These homeys were induced to take the money (with which they bought sneakers and other goodies for themselves) and they participated in conversations about blowing up that building, and they’re still in jail.

Ergo, the pizza-parlor owners in New York–FBI money, FBI plot, poor boys taking money that was lavished upon them and going with the flow, saying naughty things about blowing up the Pakistani ambassador with a shoulder-fired missile, which was never going to happen: they didn’t know the Pakistani ambassador from a pepperoni sausage and couldn’t have cared less, but what struggling entrepreneur is going to turn down $60,000 that falls from the sky?

The FBI scheme worked in those cases and others, so $90,000 was assembled, FBI undercover agents posing as businessmen gave it to Congressman William Jefferson to use as a bribe that was to be paid to the Vice-President of Nigeria, and Jefferson took the money.

And put it in his freezer.

He never bribed the vice-president of Nigeria, nor any other official.

Jeb Bush’s company did.

And the president of Nigeria gave Jeb a 1300-horse parade.

Nigeria borrowed money from the U.S. government to buy faulty pumps from MWI (Moving Water Incorporated.) Millions of these U.S. taxpayer dollars went into bribes for Nigerian officials. More millions went to Bush’s partner. Bush himself got $300,000 from a company he co-owned with the owner of MWI for work he never did. The rusty water pumps were delivered, but never used.

(The same company, MWI, delivered faulty water pumps to New Orleans under a huge contract. The pumps can’t function as promised, but the Corps of Engineers approved them anway. The corps, as well as MWI, are being investigated. )

(There’s also a Department of Justice investigation of the Bush-MWI deal with Nigeria, but that’s been going on for years with no end in sight.)

Justice moved swifter for Congressman Jefferson. He didn’t pay that bribe to the Nigerian vice-president. He took the FBI’s money and stashed it in his freezer. The FBI raided his Congressional offices and even Republican Speaker Dennis Hastert was outraged. It was the first time in the 250 year history of Congress that such a thing had happened. The FBI raided his home and found their marked money in his freezer. Talking points went out to the media and Jefferson was convicted by the networks. But not in court. Not yet. And, quite possibly, not ever.

Jefferson has already been convicted in the media, but don’t count on a conviction in court.

This has been a guest post by Randy Reynolds.

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