Author: DaveSund

(Interesting. Kleeb is now actively raising money, and such funds can only be used in a campaign for federal office. What might he have in mind? Another crack at NE-03 (the sixth-most Republican district in the nation, according to its PVI)? Or perhaps he’s angling for a Senate bid should Fahey or Kerrey decline a race? Nebraska: ever the wild card. – promoted by James L.)

The surprise candidate of the 2006 cycle in Nebraska is exploring another run for office in 2008.

From ScottKleeb.com:

As each day passes, I am more and more appreciative of what we accomplished together on our campaign for Congress last year. I can say without a doubt that the campaign was the most rewarding, most energizing and most inspiring endeavor in which I have ever been involved. Since then, I remain excited about our future in Nebraska and am currently exploring several options to continue and expand our campaign.

I need your help in continuing to reject partisan politics and embrace positive change. Please click here to make a donation today.

From Columbus to Scottsbluff, from Valentine to McCook, we sparked a conversation across our district that rejected partisan politics and embraced the common belief among all Nebraskans that together we can create a better life for ourselves and for our children, that we can again believe in that common bond of faith in a democratic process, that we can again believe that our fates are connected and that together we make more of an impact than we can separately.

(h/t: New Nebraska Network)

(The circus continues in Nebraska. – promoted by James L.)

Tony Raimondo is getting serious about entering the contest for the Republican nomination:

Raimondo, a Republican and the chairman of Behlen Manufacturing Inc. in Columbus, said Wednesday that he was working to assemble a campaign, including interviewing prospective campaign managers. He said he hoped to have everything in place by August.

He has not established an exploratory committee or started raising funds.

Raimondo reiterated that it was unlikely he would run against Sen. Chuck Hagel, R-Neb..

Hagel has said he will decide on his political future later this year.

Raimondo, who was in Washington for meetings of the National Association of Manufacturers, said he believed that Hagel would pass on seeking re-election.

“That being the case, I will be running,” Raimondo said.

This is a significant development – a sign that Hagel’s being pushed out of the race. With former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub stating that he may run regardless of whether or not Hagel’s in the race, it’s becoming clear that the Republican field would rather not have Hagel in the race. Whether or not Hagel cares, it’s reflective of Nebraska Republicans’ attitude right now.

It seems likely, given the timeframes, that we’ll get Hagel’s final decision in the next two or three months – and shortly after that, a strong Democratic challenger will emerge.

(While I’m reticent to call Bruning the “early favorite”, this has the potential to be one of the quirkiest Senate races of the cycle. – promoted by James L.)

As expected, Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning (R) is ready to officially get in the race this week.

Omaha World-Herald:

It looks like Jon Bruning’s days of exploring a 2008 U.S. Senate bid are coming to an end.

Bruning, who has printed campaign posters touting “Bruning, United States Senate,” plans to hold a press conference Thursday at the State Capitol to talk about his political future.

All signs – including recent public comments from Bruning – indicate that the second-term attorney general will officially get into the race, setting the stage for a possible primary challenge against fellow Republican and incumbent Sen. Chuck Hagel.

Hagel, who has angered many rank-and-file party members with his Iraq war criticism, has not announced whether he will run for a third term. He plans to make his decision later this fall.

Bruning, however, has given strong indications that he will run since forming an exploratory committee earlier this spring.

He has hired several campaign workers and his campaign office in Lincoln has been busy, raising money and calling supporters.

Bruning has to be the early favorite to get the Republican nomination – perhaps even if Hagel decides to run. The longer Hagel waits, the more support he will drain. His March 12 press conference was a huge strategic blunder.

Meanwhile, the rumblings of a potential Bob Kerrey Senate bid are getting stronger. Outside of Iraq – where Kerrey managed to piss off quite a few Democrats in the last couple of weeks – Kerrey’s actually a very good Democrat for Nebraska. What’s more, in a race against Jon Bruning, I’m fairly certain that he would win quite handily.

June 23rd, Kerrey is headlining the Nebraska Democrats’ annual Morrison-Exon dinner.

I’m guessing this is one of the reasons why every time Bob Kerrey’s name comes up in this race, David isn’t too happy. Apparently, the polling that Kerrey did looked pretty good, but I don’t think I’m in a minority here when I say that I wasn’t very pleased with Kerrey’s statements over the past week.

If you’re on Facebook, and want to see Mike Fahey run for Senate, join this group.

Bruning’s ready to announce – officially – in June that he will run for Senate. Of course, he might just “pull a Hagel” and announce that he’s going to announce something later, but the former option is far more likely at this point. Any further stalling by Bruning would suggest that his fundraising numbers aren’t where he wants them to be.

Meanwhile, a Nebraska group has started NoHagel.com, which is dedicated to defeating Hagel for the Republican nomination in 2008.

Other miscellaneous tidbits: I think we’ll see some movement in the congressional races before the fall. I’ve heard some rumors floated already, some that are not very desirable candidates, and I’ll let you know more if those become more than just rumors. But if we can get Jim Esch and Scott Kleeb to both give it another shot this time around, it’s going to be a good year…

The timeline most of us are looking at for Hagel is sometime before Labor Day (the same timeline Daub gave for his decision). If he decides against running, I think you’ll see the dominoes start to fall quickly. The sheer force of numbers of Republicans who just can’t stand Hagel may yet take him out of a run for reelection. And let’s not kid ourselves: Mike Fahey can raise a ton of money in a hurry.

Following up on last week’s updates:

Hal Daub’s announcement came with one significant surprise: He refused to rule out a run should Chuck Hagel decide to seek reelection. Daub is the ultimate Republican insider, a member of the Republican National Committee. He’s also very much part of Hagel’s circle. So, if Daub’s saying that he’s not going to base his decision on what Hagel does, that means one of two things. Either Hagel has already decided not to seek reelection, or he’s hemorrhaging support so badly that even Hal Daub doesn’t want to be tied to him. Either way, it’s going to be a tough road for Hagel to gain his party’s nomination for the U.S. Senate, especially after all the recent talk of running for President as an independent.

If Daub were to win his party’s nomination, it creates an interesting matchup should Mike Fahey run for the Democrats. A rematch of the 2001 Omaha Mayoral election, which Fahey won by a narrow margin.

But Daub’s is a history of electoral failure. He lost a primary challenge to David Karnes in 1988. Karnes was ultimately defeated by Bob Kerrey. He failed against Jim Exon in 1990. In 1997, he narrowly defeated Brenda Council in a campaign that was marred by race-baiting and outlandish stunts. (Daub actually took a polygraph test to “prove” he wasn’t a liar). By 2001, Omahans were so sick of Daub’s attitude that they were ready for someone new. Enter Mike Fahey. The last six years speak volumes, and Fahey’s landslide reelection victory in 2005 has helped to seal his legacy.

We are now less than a year from the primary. What comes next is anyone’s guess, but the field will be set by Labor Day.

In an unrelated note, we’ve got a big weekend in Nebraska – Nebraska Young Democrats are hosting YDA’s Spring National Conference in Omaha. Bill Richardson will be the keynote speaker on Friday. I mention this because I don’t think I can understate just how important the youth will be in 2008 for all of our candidates here. We saw young candidates like Jim Esch and Scott Kleeb do remarkably well for Nebraska, and energize a whole new generation of political activists in this state. It’s time to build on that for 2008.

(From the diaries – promoted by James L.)

A few miscellaneous notes to pass along from the last week.

Mike Fahey has a 54% favorability rating in the Nebraska Democratic Party’s poll released last week. The New Nebraska Network sees this as a positive sign, since Fahey is not a statewide officeholder, and suggests he may be able to bridge the gap between Omaha and the rest of the state.

Rep. Adrian Smith (NE-03) might just be a Jon Bruning supporter. The Lincoln Journal Star reports that Smith’s name is not included among the hosts of Hagel’s big upcoming fundraiser. He is one of only two Republican elected officials (besides Bruning) who is not listed as a host.

I’ve been walking back from my earlier statements that Bob Kerrey wouldn’t run, because it seems like a very real possibility now. Kerrey will headline  the state party’s annual fundraising dinner on June 23rd in Omaha.

Meanwhile, Behlen Manufacturing chairman Tony Raimondo announced that he would seek the Republican nomination should Chuck Hagel decide against seeking reelection.

And former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub is planning on announcing Tuesday that he will be running for Senate should Hagel not run.

Now, all of this movement in the last couple of weeks, and still, Hagel’s got a big fundraiser planned for next weekend, with the Senate’s top Republican planning to attend. Where does that leave us? Just as puzzled as ever. I was ready to call Hagel as in the race three weeks ago – and I am convinced right now that was a premature judgment.

Stay tuned – things are getting interesting.

Your guess is as good as mine at this point. Despite all of the signs showing Chuck Hagel likely pursuing a reelection bid, the news in the past week has been bizarre and contradictory. A prominent Republican donor has thrown himself into the conversation, Hagel’s making noises about an independent bid for President, and the chatter among Democrats is ramping up.

So, let’s take a look at the facts, the rumors, and everything in between.

What We Know:

– Chuck Hagel has scheduled a big-dollar fundraiser for May 18 to raise money for a Senate re-election campaign. Among those scheduled to appear at the fundraiser: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

– Chuck Hagel had a high-profile meeting with NYC mayor Michael Bloomberg on Wednesday.

– Bloomberg’s news service interviewed Hagel, who said he might consider running for President as an independent.

– Bruning is pushing back hard against Hagel in the press. It’s becoming clear that, should Hagel decide to run for reelection, he’s going to have powerful forces behind them. It might be too much for Bruning to overcome.

– Hagel is in deep trouble with Republicans, according to a favorability poll conducted by the Nebraska Democratic Party. That same poll shows Bruning with very low name recognition for a statewide officeholder, and a majority of Nebraskans favoring a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq.

What We’re Hearing:

– An influential Republican donor, Tony Raimondo, has started to make some noise about running for Senate. He says he would “probably not” challenge Hagel because of Hagel’s record on business. Not exactly a vote of confidence, but we’re pretty sure that Bruning’s the only one willing to risk political suicide by challenging Hagel in a primary.

– Remember how I said Bob Kerrey wasn’t going to run? I may have spoken too soon. No links, just rumors I’m hearing.

This race is growing increasingly bizarre, and Chuck Hagel is playing his cards very close to the vest right now. There’s no telling what direction he’s leaning, and his indecisiveness might just cost him the Republican nomination for Senate.

On the Democratic side, things are still difficult to read. Mike Fahey has long been considered the top candidate for the Democrats, but recently has started to make a move toward a reelection bid for mayor. Scott Kleeb is talking a lot about running for office again someday, but it’s not quite clear what office, or when. And Bob Kerrey said there was only a 1% chance that he would run. But, for what it’s worth, Kerrey still has an active campaign committee with $437,000 cash on hand.

The last several weeks in this race have been a gold mine for political junkies like myself. But, make no mistake, this is the most important race in Nebraska in 2008. Whether Hagel runs or not, there’s a strong possibility that the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate will be Jon Bruning. That’s simply a scary thought. There is no greater opportunity for Nebraska Democrats than this race. And if we fail to field a strong candidate, we fail as a party.

This just in: the Nebraska Democratic Party has released some polling information on Chuck Hagel.

The key findings?

Today, Hagel earns a net negative job performance score statewide with 42 percent of voters saying he is doing an excellent-to-good job, while a majority, 50 percent, says fair-to-poor. Hagel’s job performance is most negative with his Republican base, while it is net positive among Democrats and solidly mixed among independents. Among conservative Republicans, Hagel’s professional marks have crumbled, with almost two-thirds, 61 percent, saying he is doing a fair-to-poor job as Senator.

And Bruning’s numbers:

The poll results show that Bruning’s name recognition in the state is below what would be expected for someone who ran for statewide office twice and who has used government funds to market himself through Public Service Advertisements. Of those surveyed, 59 percent identified Bruning, 90 percent identified Hagel.

However, in sharp contrast to Hagel, Bruning earns a solid 61-degree personal feeling thermometer rating among those who can rate him, with a slightly better than three-to-one warm-to-cool ratio, 35 percent have a favorable or warm opinion of him, while 10 percent have a cool opinion. Bruning earns a strong professional rating as well, with 40 percent saying he is doing an excellent-to-good job, while 29 percent say fair-to-poor. Unlike Hagel, Bruning’s job performance is solid among the Republican base, and independents too, while Democrats split evenly.

But here’s the kicker:

The poll results indicate that Bruning might want to change the theme of his campaign however, as the Iraq war continues to be fought. Among those Nebraskans surveyed, 51 percent favor a timetable for withdrawing from Iraq, while only 37 percent believe we need to give the President’s troop surge plan a chance to work. We believe those margins will continue to widen as the President’s policy plays out in the next several months.

Final results:


  LINCOLN CITY MAYOR
  VOTE FOR 1
  Ken Svoboda.  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  23,958  48.88
  Chris Beutler .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  24,803  50.60
  James Bryan Wilson  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  12 .02 
  WRITE-IN. .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  240   .48

Beutler ran a strong campaign, despite an unpopular Democratic mayor, he was able to be the candidate for change. It didn’t hurt that his opponent was a city hall veteran who only campaigned on his party label.

Nebraskans have long been able to look past the party to vote for the better candidate. This is another example of that progress.

The news was not all good for Democrats tonight, as a Democratic incumbent lost her seat on the city council, swinging it to Republican control. Svoboda, unfortunately, isn’t going anywhere. He’ll be on the city council for at least another two years.

I’ve held off on making this call for a while now, but I feel comfortable saying it now. Chuck Hagel is running for reelection:

We figured out about a couple weeks ago here at UNO Dems that Lee Terry was running for reelection, and not the Senate. It wasn’t until Thursday that we figured out why. We’re ready to say with a great level of confidence that Chuck Hagel is running for reelection, and that Jon Bruning will challenge him for the nomination.

Bruning’s announcement that he wasn’t going to wait for Hagel was sign number one. Sign number two was Bruning’s polling information that showed him leading Hagel by 9 points, and Hagel’s push back in the press. For the last week, there’s been a stealth war going on between the two candidates, with Hagel’s people silently leaking a 23 year-old Jon Bruning’s Daily Nebraskan columns from around 1992, where he voiced support for gay rights, a woman’s right to choose, gun control, and endorsed Bill Clinton for President and Gerry Finnegan for Congress. Fred Thompson has been openly courting Nebraska’s House delegation.

But the two items that seal it, came in the last two days. First, Chuck Hagel’s scheduled May 18 fundraiser, a high-dollar event hosted by Governor Dave Heineman and several high-profile Omaha business leaders. Second, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s commitment to appear at that fundraiser. Certainly, McConnell would not be appearing at a Hagel fundraiser unless he was given assurances that Hagel was running for reelection and not for President.

Now, what does this mean? Unfortunately, it probably means we can count out our top tier of candidates. Mike Fahey is happy with his job as mayor, and has already said he won’t challenge Hagel. Bob Kerrey has basically endorsed Hagel for Senate. And Scott Kleeb, who has a bright future in the Democratic Party, isn’t about to jeopardize it on a challenge of a sitting U.S. Senator when there’s an absolute embarrassment of a Congressman representing his district.

That’s the bad news. The good news is that the Republican civil war that’s sure to come might just provide Democrats in this state an opportunity to make some permanent gains. Between the national climate and the disillusionment of Republicans, we might see some defection of moderate Republican voters should Hagel fall victim to Bruning’s challenge. Hagel’s going to have the backing of the NRSC, virtually every elected Republican in the state, and all but a few prominent Nebraska businessmen (Mid-America Energy CEO David Sokol is a prominent backer of Jon Bruning). But don’t underestimate Republican hatred of Hagel. It’ll be an interesting race to say the least. Stay tuned.