OK-01: Something from Georgianna Oliver’s campaign

I got the following e-mail this afternoon, since I signed up for e-mails from Oliver’s campaign.

Dear [my name],

With just over 60 days until the General Election on November 4th, 2008, the Oliver for US Congress Campaign is at full speed.  We have been talking to people throughout Congressional District 1 and learning about their lives, their struggles, and where they want and need to see improvements in this great state.

As I am sure many of you know, Hurricane Gustav made landfall yesterday in the Gulf Coast.  Gustav hit just after the anniversary of Hurricane Katrina’s destruction of New Orleans three (3) years ago.  After Hurricane Katrina hit, I traveled south with one of my employees, Ashley Theil, and one of my sisters, Julie Luna.  For several days, we assisted displaced victims at the FEMA site near the Houston Astrodome.  We were able to connect the victims with housing providers and placed over 400 families in less than 10 days.  We did this by:

   * Assessing the needs of each resident based upon their prior housing situation.  For example: if an elderly person had been living in an elderly facility, we worked to house that person in a similar elderly facility.

   * Using our national housing connections to open doors.

   * Providing maps.  The FEMA site did not have maps available for the displaced families.  These maps helped displaced families know where they were going to live, and what schools, stores, and churches were in the area.

   * Connecting church buses with elderly citizens and families who arrived at the FEMA site with nothing – some in wheelchairs and night clothes.  We worked overtime to get the displaced families to the places where people were waiting to help them.

There were a few families I cannot forget, like the teacher and entrepreneur husband with 2 children, and their teenage son who worked at McDonald’s in New Orleans.  They lost everything they had — this proud father was holding back tears when he was trying to figure out what to do for his family.  It was my honor to do my part and connect them with a temporary home until they got a place to start over, but there was no way we could do enough.

There was another woman who had 9 children.  We lost track of this woman on the first day and found out that she and her children slept on the street that night because the shelter was full.  We were finally able to get her housed, but the children will always have those memories of sleeping on the street, among other horrible memories from that disaster.

I felt the obligation to offer my expertise during one of our nation’s greatest human crises and I was honored to be able to do so.  This need and desire to help is an absolute product of my upbringing as a proud Oklahoman.  I was raised to believe that you always help others, no exceptions.  Many of my fellow Oklahomans were deeply affected by Katrina.  Many went above and beyond to help, but unfortunately, we were all sad to see that our elected officials let us down.

Rest assured that as a product of the Great State of Oklahoma, I will always make sure that we take the lead and offer charity when it is needed, but do so in a responsible and accountable manner.

Warm Regards,

Georgianna W. Oliver

To contribute to the Oliver for US Congress campaign, please click here.  Any amount is appreciated.

So yeah.  Just in case anyone was interested in this race.

Maybe I should sign up for race updates from a bunch of other under-the-radar races.  Suggestions, anyone?  (Or are people just going to point me back to my gigantic list of races…heh…)

Idaho, Oklahoma, Kansas, Georgia: the intense underdog red-state races

What are these races like?  I’ll try to analyze them here, but I don’t know all of the factors.  Can y’all help me by telling me what’s missing?

(pluses and minuses are for the appropriate party in question (i.e. a minus for the Republicans is a good thing for us)

Idaho

D nom: Larry LaRocco

background: former ID-01 reprentative (+), unsuccessful nominee for Senator against Larry Craig, unsuccessful nominee for Lt. Gov. against Jim Risch (-)

campaign: Working for the Senate (++)

state PVI: R+19

R nom: Jim Risch

background: Lt. Gov. (+), former Gov. (+), former Lt. Gov. (+)

campaign: dodging debates (-)

D party: very underdog (-), but very energized (+), Obama rally in Boise (+), significant ID-01 House race (+?)

R party: national mood against R (-), Larry Craig (-), Rex Rammell and Kent Marmon and Pro-Life (-,–?)

Oklahoma

D nom: Andrew Rice

background: State Sen. (+), divinity school (+), Oklahoma City background (?), 9/11 personal connection (?)

campaign: (no special information?)

R nom: Jim Inhofe

background: current Senator (+), global warming is a hoax (-), anything else, such as

campaign: history as a highly competent/hard-hitting campaigner (+)?

state PVI: R+12

D party: Obama effect (+)?, but Clinton won this state and Obama isn’t having a great chance at winning it (-), no significant House races (-?), locally dominant party (+)

R party: nationally dominant party (+), what else?

Kansas

D nom: Jim Slattery

background: former KS-02(?) Representative (+), lobbyist (-)

campaign: (no special information?)

R nom: Pat Roberts

background: current Senator (+), no negatives?

campaign: (no special information?)

state PVI: R+11

D party: KS-02 House race (+?), Sebelius’s political establishments? (+)

R party: nationally dominant party (+), internal conflict between conservatives and moderates…which wing is Roberts part of? (-)

Georgia

D nom: Jim Martin

background: (I don’t know him)

campaign: competitive primary raised name ID (+), anything else

R nom: Saxby Chambliss

background: (I don’t know him other than that he defeated Max Cleland)

campaign: famously nasty campaign(er) (+/-?)

state PVI: R+6

D party: competitive possibly divisive primary (-?) but party has kinda coalesced after that (+), anger toward Chambliss for defeating Cleland (+)

R party: nationally dominant party (+)

Where does Chambliss’s campaign against Cleland count?  Was it something that only angered Democrats, or did it anger most people?

Conclusions: I think we’re more likely to win GA and ID than OK and KS right now.  KS is probably the least likely, OK above that, and GA above that, and ID on top.  What do you think?

What’s the 15 LEAST likely Senate seats to flip?

Well, I just posted a joke comment to the Senate Guru’s June Cattle Call (list the 15 most likely Senate seats to flip).  Instead of doing the usual, I decided to list the 15 least likely to flip.

While that was conceived as a joke, I thought…maybe that list is worth something.  So,…

And now for something completely reasonably different: List, in order of “safeness”, the fifteen LEAST likely Senate seats to flip.

My list:

1. Baucus (MT)

2. Reed (RI)

3. Pryor (AR)

4. Biden (DE)

5. Rockefeller (WV)

6. Levin (MI)

7. Durbin (IL)

8. Harkin (IA)

9. Johnson (SD)

10. Kerry (MA)

11. Lautenberg (NJ)

12. Sessions (AL)

13. Cochran (MS)

14. Enzi (WY)

15. Barrasso (WY)

For the record, #16 is Lindsay Graham (SC) and #17 is Lamar Alexander (TN), both of whom follow close behind 15.

What happened in Montana? Driscoll AND Kelleher?

What the heck happened in Montana?

http://www.billingsgazette.net…

U.S. House, District 1 (At-Large)

Democratic Primary

Driscoll , John Dem 70,205 49%

Hunt , Jim Dem 59,425 42%

Candee , Robert Dem 12,476 9%

U.S. Senate

Republican Primary

Kelleher , Bob GOP 26,765 36%

Lange , Michael GOP 16,959 23%

Bushman , Kirk GOP 15,393 21%

Lovaas , Patty GOP 7,604 10%

Pearson , Anton GOP 4,215 6%

Garnett , Shay GOP 2,774 4%

We already know about Bob Kelleher, but isn’t John Driscoll also a perennial candidate?

John Driscoll AND Bob Kelleher?  What’s going on here?  Some sort of love affair with perennial candidates or something?  Or did Montana voters just not really care?

A Democratic bench…in Wyoming?!

(This was posted in reply to Andy Dufresne in the recent WY-AL topic, but I thought this topic might merit its own entry.)

In order to build a bench in Wyoming, we’re going to have to start helping Democrats (fundraising and otherwise) to build strong positive reputations in the state, even if they have no chance of winning.  I seriously doubt that Rothfuss can win against Enzi short of a scandal (and even with a scandal it’d be hard as heck), but I believe he’s the kind of fresh new Democrat that the party could use.  Running for Senate as a scientist and policy wonk concerned about science policy–that’s an admirable goal.  It’s almost guaranteed to be insufficient to put him over the top, sure, but we’ve gotta start building a Democratic brand somewhere.

Trauner’s strong chance at the House seat and Freudenthal’s popular governorship are a good groundwork on which to start.

As for Nick Carter and Keith Goodenough (running against Barrasso) and Al Hamburg (also running against Enzi), I don’t know enough about them.  But–no offense to them–and I’d love to hear about anything interesting that they’re doing!

(Granted, I’d rather people who aren’t lawyers or career politicians to run for office, because (1) I think legislatures deal with very practical issues that people of other professional backgrounds might be better suited to manage, and (2) I don’t like it when the Republicans can point at us and say that we’re a bunch of trial lawyers, even if they’ve got their own load of trial lawyers on their side anyway.)

And just ’cause I think it’s worth posting here:

http://www.youtube.com/user/Ro…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…

TX-Sen: “scaling up” data interpretation?

So I realized that so far, the Senate races I’ve been following have all been in low-population states with relatively cheap media markets: Alaska, Idaho, Nebraska, Oklahoma.

Now, I have to figure out how to “scale up” my interpretations of information–fundraising, cash-on-hand, poll numbers, poll undecideds, (dis)approval/familiarity ratings…

Like, for example, a 10-point deficit in poll numbers is one thing in Nebraska, but is it the same thing in Texas?  If not, how does it depend on money and candidate familiarity?  Obviously, I’m thinking about the fact there’s a ton more people in Texas, and the media markets probably cost more (I know that Alaska and Idaho have cheap media markets, though I’m not sure about Nebraska or Oklahoma).

Got any suggestions?