Author: IndianaProgressive

Now that we are clearly into another election cycle, I thought I’d post a few thoughts on where I think we’re at here in Indiana.  The last election was certainly a lot of fun — both getting a huge amount of attention from the Democratic Primary through the general election, and pulling off the biggest state-level suprise on election night.  So what’s happening here now?  In some respects, not a whole lot, with some questions left unanswered.

Unless something very unexpected happens, Senator Bayh and all nine of our current Congressman should be re-elected in 2010.  I wouldn’t be suprised if none of them got very serious challengers.  The one who might be facing the biggest challenge is Dan Burton in Indiana 05, and that would be in a Republican primary (it’s not a district we’re ever going to win).

The big fight here will be 2012, especially if Senator Lugar retires to go along with an open governors race, trying to stay in the Obama column, and a potentially significantly redistricted group of Congressman.  What redistricting looks like is going to determine a whole lot. Republicans will control the process, but it is not at all certain the extent to which they will change things.  We’re not gaining or losing a seat, so outside of relatively moderate population shifts to the suburbs, the current map we have now COULD remain largely in-tact.  Or a couple of our Democratic Congressmen could get really screwed.  The two who would be most at risk to see their districts taken from them are Baron Hill (move Bloomington back to IN-08), and Joe Donnelly (make IN-01 even more Democratic, and give him more conservative parts currently in IN-01, 03, maybe 04 or 05).  Will Baron Hill or Brad Ellsworth run for the Senate (if Lugar retires) or Governor?  I think that’s all going to depend on what their congressional districts look like going into 2012.

Who do the Republicans have to run statewide?  Currently, the Lt. Gov, and a bunch of wingnuts.  LG Becky Skillman I think is part of the more moderately conservative wing of the Republican Party that Governor Daniels is, but she’s a beyond boring candidate that doesn’t do anything/no one knows much about.  A friend of mine who works for the state says she rides around with the big scissors and cuts ribbons.  It would be hard to tell which of thier four Congressman (Buyor, Souder, Burton, and Pence) is the looniest.  FYI, I think Pence is the most politically skilled of them, and the one I would fear the most.

Now, to the most important and open-ended question — are we now a toss-up state at the Presidential level, or was 2008 sort-of a one-shot deal?  I think what 2008 has given us is an opportunity.  Yes, it took a lot of factors to win: a candidate willing to spend a ton of money and come here a lot paired against John McCain, who had one kind-of sad looking airport rally a few days before the election, and that was about it (along with a scarey Palin rally that probably put more people off than attracted them).  Had the GOP taken Obama more seriously in Indiana even a month before the election, we probably wouldn’t have carried the state.  But more importantly, as I said above, we’ve been presented with an opportunity to build off of.

One example of what I think really won 2008 for us here: Hamilton County.  Yes, we only took about 39% of the vote there.  But that’s enough to win the state.  This is the rapidly growing, very wealthy county just north of Indianapolis.  Previous to this year, the only time Democrats went to Hamilton County was to hold private $5000 a plate dinners at wealthy donors’ homes.  This time, we opened a Hamilton County Democratic Party office for the first time since the late 1980s.  The result was holding the Republicans to a 30,000 vote margin there — and they need a lot more than that to win the state.  In fact, if you add together the four “donut counties” around Indianapolis (Hamilton, Hancock, Hendricks, and Johnson), the Republican margin total was about 70,000.  Our margin in Marion County was over 100,000.  That’s the opposite of what elections usually are — and presents us with a wonderful opportunity to build on.

Since my state is, along with Kentucky, the first to close its polls, we will most likely garner more attention than most places early on.  Here’s my take on what to look for (and a word of caution not to flip out!!).

Eight of the nine Congressional races will probably be called early on for the incumbents (we have no open seats this time).  The one exception is Mark Souder’s seat in IN-03 — Fort Wayne and the NE corner of the state.  Not only has Mike Montagano been roaring to a close there, this is exactly the type of Republican district that Obama is not going to win, but will do significantly better than John Kerry did four years ago.  Right now, this race is a true tossup.

Also expect Mitch Daniels’ re-election as governor to be called early.  Don’t worry about this, my brother and sister Democrats — JLT has run a beyond-awful campaign (the less said about it the better!), that I don’t think it can be used as any indicator of broader trends — unless she does better than expected, and that would be a really good indication for us.

Finally, as the raw totals from Indiana come in, expect McCain to have an early lead, perhaps a significant one.  Typically, the first votes to come in are disproportionately from the Indianapolis suburbs, which are the most conservative part of the state.  If Obama can be in the high 30s in the coutnties that surround Indianapolis (Hancock, Johnson, Hendricks, and especially Hamilton), he’ll carry Indiana.  Probably all over the state, and especially in central-city Indianapolis, voters are going to be casting their ballots long after 6pm tomorrow night, and the heavily minority and white liberal areas of Indy always report late in any election.

Finally, Lake County (“The Region” in local slang — Gary/Hammond and area), which will return HUGE, HUGE numbers for Obama is in the Central Time Zone, and will be probably the last in the state to report.

So, the longer Indiana goes uncalled and the closer the numbers look early on, the better for us.  Either Obama or McCain is probably going to win this state 50-48 or closer — so even though our polls close first, we might be one of the last states in the country to be called.

I’ve been off-line the last few days enjoying a professional meeting in New Orleans.  It was a three-day break almost completely void of following the election — which honestly was really nice!!!

So I come back home to Indianapolis to see that, to my great suprise, the Indianapolis Star’s editorial board was evenly split between McCain and Obama, and therefore is deciding not to make an endorsement this year.

Now, I really don’t think that newspaper endorsements carry much weight in and of themselves, but can be indicative of broader things.  The last time the Indy Star endorsed a Democrat for President was 1964. Although significantly less right wing than it used to be, the Star is still a conservative Republican newspaper.  It is especially conservative on economic issues — supporting free trade, deregulation, tax cuts, etc., but has been far less supportive of the social conservative agenda.  In other words, the Star tends to support Republicans like John McCain.  The fact they didn’t is further evidence that maybe, just maybe, we can pull this out in Indiana this year.

Let me tell you a quick story about a casual friend of mine, Chad.  He’s not very political at all — in fact, he sort-of tunes out whenever a group of us are together and the talk turns to the election.  He’s never voted before, let alone been active in anything.  He generally (at least seems to) have liberal opinions on things, though.  In 2004, as the election approached, and everyone was talking about it, he got interested enough to decide to vote for John Kerry.  But he couldn’t.  Why?

Because the dumbass wasn’t registered to vote.  He asked me a couple of days before the election how to find out where he is supposed to go to vote, and I said “It’s usually printed on your voter registration card.”  He said “What’s that?”

I never even thought to ask him whether he was registered.  Now, you can right him off as an idiot, or ask how someone could not know they have to register, when you’re asked at the BMV, reminded by campaingns, on the news, in PSA’s, etc.  But the fact is there are millions of Americans out there that probably don’t know things like this.  Especially if they have moved since the last election, make sure all of your friends and family members know when the deadline is, and are registered.  

In Indiana, you need to be registered by October 6th in order to vote in the November general election.

As I’ve said quite a few times on this site, I absolutely love the city of Detroit (and stop laughing if you’ve never been there — it’s a wonderful place that has shouldered the downsides of de-industrialization more than anywhere else in the country).  When he was elected, I had high hopes for Kwame Kilpatrick.  I think he did some good things, brought a fresh approach to politics, and truly cared about the city.  And he broke the law.  And assaulted people.  And should go to jail.  And Detroit needs and deserves a better advocate.  Talk about what might be the most difficult job in America.

Jon Elrod dropped out of the race for Congress here in the 7th district today.  Basically, he said it was too hard, that he wasn’t going to win, the voters clearly indicated they wanted Andre Carson, blah, blah, blah.  He’s really coming off like a spoiled four-year-old who didn’t get his way.  

So, he’s jumping back into his state legislative race/running for re-election to the General Assembly.  I think he’s going to have a hard time getting re-elected, in what will be a crucial state-level race here.  He’s got to explain why he started running for Congress less than a year into his first legislative term (and he was running for Congress BEFORE everyone knew Julia Carson was terminally ill).  Also, we have what seems like a really good candidate on our side, Mary Ann Sullivan, who has been actively campaigning in the district for some time.

The Republicans will hold a caucus soon to select their new Congressional candidate.  There are some decent sort-of second-tier people they could select, but no one that I think can give Andre any real trouble.

Mitch Daniels has never been loved by the hard right here in Indiana, especially social conservatives.  In fact, he trounced their hero, anti-gay nutball Eric Miller, in the 2004 primary.

The one thing that Hoosiers of all stripes are pissed off about more than anything right now is property taxes.  If either Daniels or JLT are clearly seen as on the “wrong side” of this issue, they will lose.

So, put these two things together, and you get …

Republican State Senator John Waterman, who is trying to mount an independent bid for governor.  Now, before I go any further, it is highly unlikely he’ll be able to get on ballot.  Here in Indiana, we have some of the most restricted ballet access requirements in the country (Nader wasn’t even on the ballot for his 19 runs for the White House).  Basically, Waterman needs just over 30,000 signatures by the end of June.  Unlikely, but not totally out of the realm of possibility.  Maybe Hoosier Democrats should engage in our own brand of Operation Chaos!!

If this guy defies all the odds and actually makes the ballot, it is potentially huge trouble for Daniels.  He says he plans on running on the property tax issue, and he also would give social conservatives a place to go.  In a close race, even a few % could make a difference.  

A most safe and happy Memorial Day to all my cyber-friends and fellow Democrats.  More importantly, a happy Memorial Day and heartfelt thanks to our women and men, past and present, who have served all of us in the Armed Forces.  As someone who comes from a family with a long tradition of military service (and almost all are military Democrats!), there is nothing that bothers me more than the Democratic Party being tagged as “less patriotic” than the Republicans are.

In part, I would argue, that this is our fault, as at times over the past twenty years or so we have let this happen.  I think we have been too timid at times when it comes to this set of issues, and there is no reason to be.  From the impressive set of Democratic veterans now serving in Congress and candidates this fall, to the long history of military service and advocacy that makes up our party’s history, we should take a back seat to no one.  For example, the GOP loves to still talk about the “McGovern wing” of the Democratic Party.  Every time they say that, we should remind them that at age 19, George McGovern volunteered for military service during World War II, and was a highly decorated figher pilot.

We know, as Democrats, what the important issues are, and that veterans health care and support for military families (issues that our current Administration should hang their head in shame about more than anything else they’ve done) are more important things than whether or not one chooses to wear a flag pin on their suit jacket.  But these symbolic issues do matter as well.  For example, I would like to see more liberals, when they uphold the Constitutional right to burn the flag, also more strongly criticize people who choose to do it.

We’re going to be hit with the “unpatriotic” charge A LOT over the next several months.  Let’s not back down!

Especially by Indiana standards, by all accounts we’ve blown the doors off turnout for a primary election.  It is an absolutely beautiful day here, and it feels more like a general election than primary day, especially downtown.  I voted at 7am, and already more people had voted than when I voted at about 8am in November 2006.  Polls close in about an hour — and that’s an issue I think Democrats really need to address here, as it is not friendly for working people.  There is one reason I’m glad the polls are closing early.  Why?

Because the arcane blue laws of this state prohibit the sale of alcohol while the polls are open!!  (I’m really not kidding — I couldn’t get a beer with my bacon cheeseburger at lunch).

My guess is that Clinton and JLT pull out maybe 5-6 point victories tonight, but we’ll have to wait and see.  It has been fun being in the political spotlight like never before for a few weeks!