Author: StephenCLE

Welcome SSPers to Part 2 of my ongoing series about the “38 states of America”.  For those that don’t know what I’m referring to, the 38 states of America are a redrawing of the United States based on grouping together of economic, social, and political interests – sometimes referred to as “communities of interest”

The Map:  

In part 1 I went through the states in the Northeast Region, with the intention of giving the states ratings a la Charlie Cook, Stewart Rothenburg, et al, with regard to the 2012 presidential election and future federal elections in general.  Here’s a quick recap of part 1:

Kennebec – Solid D

Plymouth – Solid D

Mohawk – Toss Up

Hudson – Solid D

Susquehanna – Solid D

Allegheny – Lean D

Chesapeake – Likely D

Appalachia – Solid R

In part 2, we’re going to investigate the states within the Midwest Region.  There are 9 states in this region, Erie, Wabash, Mackinac, Dearborn, Osage, Prairie, Superior, Dakota, and Platte.

Erie – (South OH/North KY) – Total vote 2,904,184

Obama – 1,323,907 (45.6%)

McCain – 1,580,277 (54.4%)

PVI – R+7

Rating – Solid Republican

Now here’s a state that I thought would be much more competitive.  Erie basically consists of central and southern Ohio as well as parts of western Indiana and most of northern Kentucky.  As it turns out, most of the rural areas in this district are absolutely toxic for the Democrats, whether it be in western Ohio, northern Kentucky, or most notably of all the suburbs and exurbs surrounding Cincinnati.  In order to win, the democratic candidate would have to find a way to get the margins down in the rural counties while running up big margins in Columbus, Dayton, and Cincinnati.  If Columbus and Cincy keep moving leftward this could be competitive by end of the decade, but for now, Safe R.  

Mackinac – (Greater Michigan) – Total vote 4,305,104

Obama – 2,571,298 (59.7%)

McCain – 1,733,806 (40.3%)

PVI – D+7

Rating – Solid Democratic

Mackinac state is the opposite of Erie state, one I figured would be more competitive but it turns out to be a democratic stronghold.  The trouble here for the republicans is that some of the most republican parts of Michigan get cut out and given to Dearborn, and the state doesn’t extend far enough south into Ohio to pick up the vast red voting populations of the rural west.  As a result, the cities like Detroit, Toledo, Lansing, Flint, and Ann Arbor end up basically dominating the state’s politics.  The remaining rural areas aren’t all that republican either.  Safe for Dems.

Wabash – (Indiana/Kentucky/West IL) – Total vote 3,102,991

Obama – 1,499,893 (48.3%)

McCain –  1,603,098 (51.7%)

PVI – R+5

Rating – Likely Republican

Wabash state is a state based in Indiana and Kentucky, and covers a lot of Midwestern and upper South territory in between.  It would seem that this would be more of a republican stronghold than Erie state, but that’s actually not the case, as Obama took over 48% here.  He got that margin by running very strongly in the democratic bastions of Indianapolis and Louisville.  The rural areas are fairly tough though, especially down in Kentucky and in the suburbs and exurbs around Indy.  For the democrat to win they’d have to win big in the cities, and also engage voters in the mid-size cities and college towns like Evansville, Bloomington, Lexington, West Lafayette, and Muncie while not getting killed in the exurbs and rural country.  My guess is that this state would get some ads and visits, but if the republican isn’t winning here, he or she is definitely not winning nationally.

Dearborn – (Lake Michigan Corridor) – Total vote 7,104,345

Obama – 4,363,393 (61.4%)

McCain – 2,740,952 (38.6%)

PVI – D+8

Rating – Solid Democratic

Dearborn state surrounds the lower end of Lake Michigan, and it centers on Chicago but is actually a mix of big cities, mid-size towns, and rural area.  What little republican base there is in Dearborn seems to be centered on lower western Michigan, northern Indiana’s rural reaches, and the suburbs/exurbs of Milwaukee.  Ostensibly Chicago’s collar counties would be an opportunity for some republican votes too, but these areas all went blue in 2008 behind native son Barack Obama.  Kerry didn’t do nearly as well as Obama did in this state but I can’t imagine that he took less than 55% in a not so great year.  The combination of Madison, Milwaukee, Chicago, and college towns like Kalamazoo, Dekalb, and South Bend is simply too much for any republican to overcome.  Safe D.

Osage – (Western IL & Eastern MO) – Total vote 2,486,318

Obama – 1,317,244 (53.0%)

McCain – 1,169,074 (47.0%)

PVI – Even

Rating – Toss Up

Osage state is a quintessential swing state.  It consists of most of southern and western Illinois along with most of eastern Missouri.  The state is centered on Saint Louis, which is the primary democratic stronghold within the state.  Obama was able to carry the state with 53% of the vote in 2008, equaling his national tally, and the PVI is even.  The republican base here is in the Missouri rural counties, and to a lesser extent those in central and lower Illinois, as these counties tend to be a little more swingish in national elections.  The democrat to win would have to ring up big margins in greater STL and do very well in the river counties just north and south of STL on both sides of the Mississippi.  There would be huge money, huge advertising, and many visits given to this state from both sides as this state is probably one of the few that will end up deciding most presidential races.

Prairie – (Iowa & Upper Mississippi Valley) – Total vote 1,600,690

Obama – 915,632 (57.2%)

McCain – 685,058 (42.8%)

PVI – D+4

Rating – Likely Democratic

Prairie state encompasses what amounts to the eastern two-thirds of Iowa combined with the extreme north of Missouri, northwestern Illinois, and southwestern Wisconsin.  This district comprises some of the most democratic rural territory in the US outside of New England, and though there aren’t any major cities in the state, the cities that do exist, like Des Moines, Iowa City, and the Quad Cities, all break heavily democratic as well.  Still, it’s not an impossible state for the republicans, if they were to pump a lot of effort into Prairie they might be able to turn it red.  This is the smallest state so far, so I’m not sure just how a big a deal it would be electorally.  I’m calling it Likely D.  

Superior – (Upper Midwest MI/WI/MN) – Total vote 4,039,225

Obama – 2,239,234 (55.4%)

McCain – 1,799,991 (44.6%)

PVI – D+2

Rating – Leans Democratic

Superior state stretches across the Canadian frontier of the Midwest from the upper peninsula of Michigan across most of Wisconsin and Minnesota.  At first glance, this would seem to be a favorable setup for the republicans with cities like Madison and Milwaukee drawn into nearby Dearborn, but alas, so were their cherry red suburban communities in SE Wisconsin.  The rural areas in Wisconsin are actually quite liberal aside from greater Green Bay, and the major metroplex of Minneapolis-St Paul is a real boon to the democratic candidate, as is the iron range of northeastern Minnesota.  The key area for the republican candidate is undoubtedly the “Bachmann zone” in the exurbs north and west of Minneapolis.  At D+2, this state would be a fight most cycles, similar to the battles fought in the upper Midwest that we’ve seen in the recent past.  Lots of time and effort would go into this state.

Dakota – (west MN, most of ND and SD) – Total vote 738,833

Obama – 357,984 (48.5%)

McCain – 380,849 (51.5%)

PVI – R+5

Rating – Likely Republican

Dakota state is roughly similar to the two Dakotas now, shifted slightly eastward into the western reaches of Minnesota.  It’s by far the smallest state we’ve seen thus far, and I believe is the smallest state of the lower 36.  I figured at the outset that this would be a walkover for the republicans, but surprisingly, Obama took nearly 49% of the vote and finished just 3% behind McCain.  Looking at the map, the key region for the democrats in Dakota is the Red River valley, Obama performed very well in the river counties of upper Minnesota as well as in Grand Forks and Fargo on the other side.  The Indian reservations are also a source of votes.  For the republicans, their strength comes in the western part of the state and from the farmland in general.  This state doesn’t provide an abundance of electoral votes and likely wouldn’t swing a presidential race, but would probably see campaign dollars because of its mild competitiveness and extremely cheap media.

Platte – (Central Plains, parts of IA, MO, KS, NE) – Total vote 2,732,639

Obama – 1,258,798 (46.1%)

McCain – 1,473,841 (53.9%)

PVI – R+7

Rating – Safe Republican

Platte state is a mostly rural state right in the heart of the country’s midsection.  It encompasses the western third of Iowa and Missouri and the eastern two-thirds of Nebraska and Kansas, along with a very small piece of South Dakota.  Just looking at the map, you’d think that the democrats got murdered here in 2008, but that isn’t completely true.  Bolstered by very strong performances in places like Kansas City, Omaha, Lincoln, and Lawrence, Barack Obama strung together a fairly surprising 46% of the vote.  Now of course the farm country out in these parts is very, very red, and it would be very hard for Team Blue to pick this state off in anything but a great democratic year, but it’s not as impossible as I thought initially.   Still, it’s red enough for me to call it Safe R.  In a 2010-style year Team Red probably puts up 60% or higher here.

That concludes part 2.  In part 3 we’ll look at the Southeast Region.

A few weeks ago on Swing State Project, somebody posted a map of the United States if the states were based on communities of interest and like-minded metropolitan areas.  The result was what is referred as the “38 states of America.”  Not surprisingly, the discussion turned to what each party’s electoral chances would be like in each of the new states.  So in this series of diaries, I will be looking into how each party did during the 2008 presidential election, and what the recent changes in population, demographics, and partisanship mean for 2012.  

The Map:

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In this first installment I will look at the Northeast Region.  The Midwest, Southeast, and West Regions will come later, as well as the final electoral vote roundup at the end.  I’m counting Alaska as one state, so there’s only going to be 37 states in this countdown, somehow I don’t think the northern Alaska state would have enough population for inclusion on it’s own.

Northeast Region:

Kennebec – (Northern New England) – Total vote 1,578,414

Obama – 943,160 (59.8%)

McCain – 635,254 (40.2%)

PVI – D+7

2012 Rating – Solid Democratic

Kennebec is the furthest northeastern state, consisting of Maine, Vermont, and most of New Hampshire.  This area used to be very republican but ever since the 90s has been a democratic stronghold.  It’s hard to imagine the Republicans ever being competitive here without a major blowout win nationally.  

Plymouth – (Southeast New England) – Total vote 2,889,035

Obama – 1,805,754 (62.5%)

McCain – 1,083,281 (37.5%)

PVI – D+10

2012 Rating – Solid Democratic

Plymouth state consists of the greater Boston area, and stretches from Manchester to Providence to Worcester, essentially.  It’s the smallest state in the union area wise, and it’s also one of the most democratic states in the nation.  Safe D.

Mohawk – (Upstate NY) – Total vote 2,403,469

Obama – 1,295,120 (53.9%)

McCain – 1,108,349 (46.1%)

PVI – D+1

2012 Rating – Toss Up

Mohawk is a state that essentially covers most of Upstate New York.  This is an area that is republican on the local level and used to be much more republican nationally as well.  Obama got 54% here, and Kerry ran nearly even with Bush in 2004, which tells me that this would be a pre-eminent swing state that would get a lot of media coverage and trips from the candidates in 2012.  The key for the Democratic candidate is to ring up a big margin in the cities like Buffalo, Syracuse, Rochester, and Albany, as well as carry the upper St Lawrence Valley.  For the republican, it is the rural areas of western new York and the lower Hudson valley that are the real zones to score well.  Definitely one to watch.  

Hudson – (NYC Metropolis) – Total vote 9,473,464

Obama – 5,976,369 (63.1%)

McCain – 3,497,095 (36.9%)

PVI – D+10

Rating – Safe Democratic

Hudson state consists of the greater NYC area and its sphere of influence, stretching from Connecticut through northern New Jersey.  I don’t think Democrats would have anything to worry about here, it’s one of the most democratic states in the nation.  

Susquehanna – (Eastern PA/South NJ) – Total vote 4,303,560

Obama – 2,658,358 (61.8%)

McCain – 1,645,202 (38.2%)

PVI – D+9

Rating – Safe Democratic

This state covers eastern Pennsylvania and southern New Jersey.  With Philadelphia being the dominant metro area here and with other democratic bastions within like Scranton, Allentown, and Atlantic City, there really isn’t much room for a republican candidate to do well.  Safe D.

Chesapeake – (Mid-Atlantic) – Total vote 6,145,671

Obama – 3,614,839 (58.8%)

McCain – 2,530,832 (41.2%)

PVI – D+6

Rating – Likely Democratic

Chesapeake state is fairly polarized politically.  There are actually some hugely republican regions in the state, such as south central Pennsylvania and upper Maryland, as well as parts of central and western Virginia.  The problem for the Republicans is that the democrats have a major base in the metropolitan corridor, stretching from Wilmington to Baltimore/DC to Richmond.  For the republican to win here he would have to do extremely well in the suburbs of Baltimore and in northern Virginia and hold down margins in the cities while cleaning up in the rural reaches.  Obama got 59% here, so that’s a tough task.

Allegheny – (West PA/East OH) – Total vote 3,938,362

Obama – 2,159,289 (54.8%)

McCain – 1,779,073 (45.2%)

PVI – D+2

Rating – Leans Democratic

Now here’s a state that I didn’t think would be so competitive.  Allegheny state, which covers the eastern portion of the Rust Belt, was carried by Kerry in 2004 but barely moved at all toward Obama in 2008 as many areas of western Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia actually moved rightward.  The district’s rightward trend leads me to believe that it could be a candidate to flip red in 2012, but to win, the republican candidate would have to avoid getting killed in Cleveland and Pittsburgh, the former being especially problematic as Obama took 70% in Cuyahoga County.  You’d definitely see big money dropped in this area and many visits, just as you do in today’s presidential elections.

Appalachia – (WV/East KY/West VA) – Total vote 1,436,350

Obama – 595,855 (41.5%)

McCain – 840,495 (58.5%)

PVI – R+12

Rating – Solid Republican

I didn’t know where to put this state geographically, it’s right at the bend of the northeast, south, and Midwest.  What I do know is that this state, much of which is locally democratic, is hugely republican at the national level.  Obama would have no chance here, and really even a democrat like Joe Manchin would struggle because of the inclusion of uber-red parts of eastern Kentucky and northeastern Tennessee to go with most of West Virginia.  For 2012 purposes, definitely Safe R.

This is the 2nd state in my redistricting series.  Much like Ohio, Pennsylvania finds itself in a very similar situation heading into redistricting.  The state is being redistricted by the Republicans, who hold the governorship and both the state house and state senate.  However, there are even greater difficulties in the Keystone State.  First off, Pennsylvania, unlike Ohio, is a mostly blue state, and is going to be a very tough challenge to maintain the Republicans 12-7 advantage, which they are going to try to make 12-6 by eliminating Mark Critz’s 12th district.  

Ultimately, I wasn’t able to help every republican incumbent, but I did the best I could without ridiculous gerrymandering.  I think PA republicans could be a little gun-shy about jacking up the map too much, seeing as they did that in 2000 and overreached horribly.  

The good thing about Pennsylvania is that I have complete partisan numbers.  So to the map:

District 1 – Robert Brady (D) – Dark Blue – Obama 82%, McCain 18% – This district is a 50% black VRA district, encompassing much of south and west Philadelphia as well as the blacker portions of Delaware County including Chester and Upper Darby.  It’s a cinch for Brady and/or any Democrat.  

District 2 – Chaka Fattah (D) – Dark Green – Obama 91%, McCain 9% – This is one of the most democratic districts in the nation.  At 48% black it’s not quite black majority, but it’s also 19% hispanic and 6% asian, just 27% white.  

District 3 – Mike Kelly (R) – Purple – Obama 48%, McCain 50% – This district is little changed, but now includes all of Butler County, which helps swing the seat a little more solidly toward the republicans and Kelly.  It’s still vulnerable in unfavorable years, but should be a hold in an even election.  

District 4 – Jason Altmire (D) – Red – Obama 45%, McCain 54% – The partisanship in district 4 really doesn’t change much.  Altmire’s seat picks up some new areas in Allegheny and Westmoreland counties, and loses some territory further north.  You’d think a republican would be able to win a 54% McCain district, but this area is ancestrally democratic and fairly blue at the local level.  I balked at trying to make this district more red as doing so would be harmful to Kelly and/or Murphy.

District 5 – Glenn Thompson (R) – Gold – Obama 45%, McCain 53% – Here’s another seat that doesn’t change a whole lot, if anything it shifts eastward a little bit.  It’s still an easy republican hold in all but the worst of years for the red team.

District 6 – Jim Gerlach (R) – Turquoise – Obama 52%, McCain 47% – Now things start heating up.  Gerlach’s district changes quite a bit, and for me, is actually gerrymandered a bit (I know, crazy me).  It takes in much of his base in upper Montgomery and Chester counties, lower Berks, and now includes a tendril back into republican Lebanon County.  The result is that this seat goes from D+4 to R+1.  That should be enough for Gerlach to hold the seat for sure.  The PVI actually masks the republican lean a bit as most of this area is locally republican.  

District 7 – Patrick Meehan (R) – Gray – Obama 54%, McCain 45% – This seat shifts a bit northward and westward away from downtown Philadelphia, taking in much of Delaware and Chester counties.  The PVI is down from D+3 to D+1, but again, this area is locally very republican, so the PVI can be a little misleading.  Meehan should do fairly well here unless if the year isn’t right.  

District 8 – Mike Fitzpatrick (R) – Lavender – Obama 54%, McCain 45% – This seat has barely changed at all, and still includes all of Bucks County and parts of northeast Philadelphia.  The Obama percentage drops by about 1%, which isn’t much, but in a swing district like this, every little bit helps.

District 9 – Bill Shuster (R) – Light Blue – Obama 40%, McCain 58% – Shuster’s seat shifts to the west a bit, into swingier territory closer to Pittsburgh, but still includes much of south central Pennsylvania.  The PVI is down to about R+13, but that’s no problem for Shuster.

District 10 – Tom Marino (R) – Dark Pink – Obama 48%, McCain 51% – This district looks the same as before, but it’s not.  All of Scranton has been thrown in with republican territory back further to the west.  That results in the seat moving from R+8 to R+5, in what is mostly a trade-off with fellow republican Lou Barletta.  I think Marino is a bit weak but should still hold a 51% McCain seat.  

District 11 – Lou Barletta (R) – Light Green – Obama 53%, McCain 46% – This is the trade-off on the other side, Barletta gets a seat that is much more swingish and easier to defend by taking Scranton out of the district and adding more territory on the fringes of the seat.  It goes from D+4 to Even.  Barletta is a generally weak candidate so he’s going to need all the help he can get.  

District 12 – Todd Platts (R) – Royal Blue – Obama 39%, McCain 60% – This is now the most republican seat in Pennsylvania.  Platts’s seat moves to the west a little bit but is otherwise the same.  No problem for Platts.  

District 13 – Allyson Schwartz (D) – Pink – Obama 64%, McCain 36% – This seat is little changed except that it picks up some more territory in Philadelphia in order to help out other Republican incumbents in the Philly burbs.  It’s now a D+11 district and safe for the democrats even in the shittiest of years.  

District 14 – Mike Doyle (D) – Brown – Obama 68%, McCain 31% – No real change here, Doyle’s seat still surrounds greater Pittsburgh and is very,very democratic.  Maybe if this area keeps trending rightward the republicans might consider cracking Pittsburgh into 3 by 2020, but for now they have no choice but to concede district 14.  

District 15 – Charlie Dent (D) – Orange – Obama 56%, McCain 43% – This district was a dissapointment to me, but I wasn’t able to make Dent’s seat any more republican.  I considered exchanging parts of Lehigh with Holden for parts of Schulykill, but since Lehigh is Dent’s base and Schulykill Holden’s, that doesn’t really make sense regardless of partisanship.  Plus to go further north or south would hurt Barletta and/or Gerlach, who’s districts improved a lot.  Dent got the short straw, and will have to try to keep winning in a D+3 seat.

District 16 – Joe Pitts (R) – Green – Obama 45%, McCain 53% – One of the things I tried to do in this map was to shore up Pitts, whose district is currently sliding out from under him.  It shifts further west into York County and out of Chester County entirely, which drops the Obama percentage to 45%.  Pitts shouldn’t have trouble here unless Lancaster and York continue moving leftward, which could cause angst later in the decade.

District 17 – Tim Holden (D) – Purplish-Blue – Obama 51%, McCain 48% – Tim Holden’s district gains some democratic precincts, most notably in Berks county where all of Reading is now within Holden’s seat.  Given Holden’s strength he should now be able to hold this seat fairly easily despite it being 48% McCain, and the republican voters he lost go to helping out Jim Gerlach, who really needs them.  

District 18 – Tim Murphy (R) – Yellow – Obama 44%, McCain 54% – Tim Murphy’s seat ends up getting more republican as it loses some democratic areas near Pittsburgh and takes in more republican areas in Allegheny County.

Conclusion – This map is very tenuous at best.  The bottom line is that, in a blue state, the red team has to simply hope that their incumbents can do well in seats that are swingish and or lean democratic.  I was able to help out some people like Meehan, Gerlach, and Barletta, but these are all likely seats that will go blue anyway during the 2012 presidential race.  It will be on the individual representatives to make this work.  

So I know that this is redistricting season, and that Ohio has been done by many folks already, but I couldn’t let it go by without giving my feeling on how my home state might re-draw it’s congressional map.  

As we know, the Republicans are in total control of Ohio’s state government following what was an absolutely nightmare of a 2010 election cycle for the Democrats, both here and nationally.  Therefore they will draw the lines.  The following map is my best guess on what they will end up drawing ultimately.  

First of all though, I’m going to start by making a statement on what the Republicans should do, or at least what I would do if I were them.  Ohio is a swing state.  As we’ve seen in the past three cycles, it is especially vulnerable to wide swings in the electorate, going from 12-6 to 8-10 and back to 13-5 by the end of the decade.  What’s going on now is that John Kasich’s ratings are plummeting, mostly due to the fight between legislative Republicans and public employee unions.  Generic R is starting to falter against Generic D on the congressional ballot as well.  If I was a republican, I’d be wary of the potential of a sweep in 2012 by popular democratic Senator Sherrod Brown and Barack Obama atop the ticket in the Buckeye State, and would thus try to lock in as much of a wave-proof map as possible.  The best I feel the republicans can do against the democrats in a democratic year like 2006/2008 is 11-5 (maybe 10-6 if you have a big minority turnout in Cincinnati but you’ll be okay most years).  You get to 11-5 by ceding 4 Safe Dem seats in the north, one seat each centered around Toledo (Marcy Kaptur), Cleveland (Marcia Fudge), Akron (Betty Sutton), and Youngstown (Tim Ryan).  The 5th district would be a democratic vote sink surrounding Columbus in central Franklin County, and I would sacrifice Steve Stivers in order to accomplish that.  The reason for it is that, with as far leftward as Columbus is moving, it’s not feasible to keep splitting the county three ways as you’re going to lose at least 2 of them in a bad election cycle, making you worse off then if you sacrifice one.  

But anyways, that’s what I would do.  This map is about what they probably WILL do.  Some have called for a 13-3 attempt, but that would almost certainly be a dummymander of epic proportions.  So without further ado, here’s my prediction, a 12-4 setup in which districts 10 and 18 are eliminated:

District 1 – Dark Blue – Steve Chabot-R – This seat is centered around Cincinnati but includes a bigger section of republican Butler County, which is now about 1/4 of the district’s population.  It’s probable that Obama still won here, but this district certainly has a republican PVI now, maybe R+2, and Chabot would be favored to hold it in all but a really democratic year with high minority turnout like 2008.  You could really make this district safe R if you threw all of downtown Cincy into OH-2, but that would put Jean Schmidt onto the unemployment line more than likely.  

District 2 – Green – Jean Schmidt-R – This district is little changed geographically, but becomes slighly more democratic as it includes more of central Cincinnati and now has all of Scioto County, while losing parts of super-red Warren County.  PVI here is probably down to about R+8 or R+9 in order to shore up Chabot.  This seat would definitely be competitive in a normal or strong year for the democrats because of Schmidt’s suckiness, but a generic R would do fine here.  If Mean Jean can’t win an R+9, then that’s her own fault, and I think the state R’s will view things similarly.

District 3 – Purple – Mike Turner-R – This district is centered on Dayton, and extends a little further east than before while now holding all of Montgomery County.  It’s plausible that the PVI moved a point or so in the democrats’ favor, but honestly, Turner is iconic in Dayton and isn’t going anywhere.

District 4 – Red – Jim Jordan-R – District 4 moves a little bit further north and to the east but outside of that remains very rural and very republican, probably the most republican district in the state, it’s close between it and district 8.

District 5 – Yellow – Bob Latta-R – This seat makes me a little bit nervous from the republican perspective for a couple of reasons.  First of all, a lot of the rural counties in northwest Ohio are turning blue.  Secondly, because of immense population loss, Latta’s district now extends into Cleveland’s suburban reaches.  And not just exurby red areas either, but some democratic strongholds like Oberlin and Elyria in Lorain county.  I can’t take just red areas in Medina and Wayne either because it would hurt Jim Renacci.  The PVI here is still probably R+5 or R+6, but this one could be very interesting in a democratic year or by the end of the decade if NW Ohio keeps trending blue.

District 6 – Black – Bill Johnson-R – This is probably one of the tougher holds of any R district in the state.  Freshman Bill Johnson’s seat is mostly unchanged, but does gain a few R-leaning areas in the southern tier, like Jackson and Vinton counties.  It also loses a few democratic areas in Mahoning County.  The PVI probably moves by a point or two toward the republicans.

District 7 – Gray – Steve Austria-R – If there’s anybody that’s most unhappy with this plan, it’s most likely Steve Austria.  You see, I’m very concerned about Columbus, and as such, I felt it necessary to split the city more effectively 3 ways, which takes Austria’s district further into Franklin County.  In return I took Clark County, which is rather swingish, out of the district.  Still, district 7 is likely R+4 or R+5 now, and could be in play in a strong democratic year.  Austria should be okay if he campaigns well.

District 8 – Lavender – John Boehner-R – This district extends northward a bit to compensate for losing parts of Montgomery County, but it’s still extremely republican.  No trouble at all for the speaker.  

District 9 – Light Blue – Marcy Kaptur-D – This district turned out surprisingly well, and basically hugs the Lake Erie coastline stretching from Toledo’s west side over to some of Cleveland’s western suburbs like Lorain and Avon Lake.  It’s still an extremely democratic district, and an easy hold for Kaptur or any democrat.  

District 10 – Maroon – Betty Sutton-D vs Dennis Kucinich-D – Here we have a district that takes in most of Cleveland’s western suburbs, parts of northern Medina county, and the western half of greater Akron.  It’s actually quite similar to Sutton’s current district except that it takes in more of Cuyahoga and loses Lorain county to Kaptur/Latta.  Dennis Kucinich was actually drawn into Fudge’s district but he would undoubtedly run here instead as most of his base is within this version of OH-10.  I think Sutton would be favored to win a head to head primary as Kucinich has far too many enemies.

District 11 – Light Green – Marcia Fudge-D – Here’s Fudge’s district, fully within Cuyahoga County, and a 50% black VRA district at that, hugely democratic.  There’s still a possibility that the republicans will draw this district down toward Akron, but in the interest of compactness I didn’t feel it necessary.  It’s not like doing so would change the overall PVIs in the northeast very much.  

District 12 – Royal Blue – Patrick Tiberi-R – Tiberi’s district is strengthened here as it loses some areas in Franklin County and gains some republican-leaning areas around Zanesville and the Licking Valley.  This seat goes up to about an R+3 or so if I had to guess, which probably averts the seat going blue for awhile outside of a really strong democratic wave.

District 13 – Pink – Tim Ryan-D – This district is virtually unchanged, and still runs from Youngstown over to eastern Akron.  It’s still very solidly democratic for Ryan, or any democrat for that matter.

District 14 – Brown – Steven LaTourette-R – Sidebar, I have a special place for Steven LaTourette because when he was my congressman in 2001 he took my 8th grade class on the House floor.  That was a really cool experience.  Anyway, this district is another republican challenge because it’s squeezed on one side by Cleveland, on another by Akron, and on another by Youngstown.  The best I could do for LaTourette is move the seat into some republican-leaning suburbs in Cuyahoga like Lyndhurst, Brecksville, and Broadview Heights, and in Summit like Sagamore Hills and Peninsula.  I couldn’t avoid throwing in greater portions of Trumbull and Portage counties though, which hurts.  The PVI is most likely unchanged, so LaTourette should be fine, but this would be a real fight in an open seat.  

District 15 – Orange – Steve Stivers-R – This district is definitely the most worrisome for the Republicans as it has a democratic PVI, and I wasn’t able to do very much to change that here.  The district still contains just two rural counties plus a roughly 50% slice of Franklin County.  The good news is that Stivers has outperformed his district in his first two elections here, so he might be able to survive even if 2012 isn’t a great year for the republicans.  Between the three central Ohio republicans, Stivers, Tiberi, and Austria, Stivers gets the short straw as the freshman.  

District 16 – Sea Green – Jim Renacci-R vs Bob Gibbs-R – This last district has changed a bit as well, shifting southward mostly.  Holmes County, the most republican county in Ohio, is added, along with some swingy territory further south in Coshocton and Tuscarawas.  Overall I don’t think the PVI changes much, maybe a point further to the right for R+5.  Both Renacci and Gibbs have their bases of support within the district, so a primary between the two freshmen would be a cool fight to see.  

In Conclusion – A 12-4 map would be fairly hard to maintain for the republicans, but it’s one that could hold up in a neutral year if all their members fought hard and campaigned well.  I would say that based on this configuration, Stivers is the most vulnerable, followed by Chabot, then Johnson third.  On the flip side, the best the democrats could hope to do under a map like this is 10-6, by taking out Stivers, Chabot, Johnson, Tiberi, Schmidt (because of her unique weakness), and the Renacci/Gibbs primary winner.  I suppose if LaTourette were to retire then his could be in play as well.  With the exception of Stivers though, all of the republicans districts have an R-leaning PVI, which is what the other side should be shooting for.

So anyway, I’ve been on a bit of a political hiatus since the midterm elections, and I figured that this would be a good way for me to get back in the game, to map out what I think the baseline race ratings for the 2012 presidential election are.  

It’s extremely early in the game for this, to say the least, but I wanted to start here as opposed to the house or other races that will be impacted by redistricting.  

First off, let’s put up the 2008 election results:

Darkest blue – 15%+ Obama win

Dark blue – 10-15% Obama win

Royal blue – 5-10% Obama win

Light blue – 0-5% Obama win

Light pink – 0-5% McCain win

Dark pink – 5-10% McCain win

Bright red – 10-15% McCain win

Dark red – 15% McCain win

You’ve probably seen this map before.  It shows, in 5% amounts, the strength of the victory by Barack Obama or John McCain.  It’s easy to see here that Obama romped in much of the northeast, the midwest, and the pacific coast while McCain won big in the plains and much of the southeast.  Most of the major battlegrounds were in the southern midwest, the south atlantic coast, and in the southwest.  Since the 2008 election is a good predictor of Obama’s strength in most states, I use these results as a major factor in my 2012 base ratings.  

Now let’s take a look at another analysis, where I basically determine which of the US states are “red”, “purple”, and “blue”.  I define a red state as a state that has either voted Republican for president in each of the last 5 elections, or a state that went for McCain by 10% or more in 2008.  I define a blue state as any state that went Democratic in each of the last 5 elections.  

At this point the analysis is pretty simple, and based on two simple factors, one subjective and one objective.  Now is where we start to subdivide the states based on internal factors outside of presidential politics.  I will speak briefly about every state that is NOT in the Solid D or Solid R column.

New Hampshire – This state went 54/45 for Obama, and went for Kerry in 2004, but has really taken a hard swing to the right now that foreign policy has taken a back seat to fiscal, it was opposition to Iraq that caused the D wave of 2006 here.  Ayotte’s big win over Hodes in the 2010 Senate race gives me pause.  I’m calling it a tossup.

New Jersey – This state is only on the board due to the success of Republican Gov. Chris Christie, who seems fairly popular in the state.  I think the democratic machine has caused some unnecessary problems here, but unless Obama really gets rocked, he’ll still win.  Likely D.

Pennsylvania – This is one state that I really, really think is wrongly classified as a swing state.  It’s gone blue 5 straight presidential elections.  In 2010, during the democrats’ worst election cycle in 26 years, Pat Toomey was still up after midnight before his race against Joe Sestak was called.  I’m putting this one as Lean D, and that’s being generous to the republicans.

Virginia – This is becoming a premier swing state.  Bob McDonnell crushed here in 2009, and the republicans did very well in the 2010 house races, but remember that every seat that they reclaimed in 2010 had a PVI of R+5 or higher.  The one seat that had a democratic PVI, they lost.  Obama seems popular here, especially in NoVA, but I have a feeling it will go as the nation goes in 2012.  Tossup.  

North Carolina – Barack Obama came up with a stunning 50/49 win here in 2008 as the Democrats swept the Senate and Governor races as well as 8 house seats.  They only lost 1 house seat in the 2010 deluge, but governor Purdue is unpopular.  The state’s growth seems to be in the democratic research triangle, which is heartening, but electing an african-american in the south is always tough.  I’ll give the republicans the benefit of the doubt and say Lean R, but it’s one to watch for sure.  

South Carolina – McCain won here by a 54/45 count, but I think some of the other democratic trending we’ve seen in the southeastern coastal states is bound to show up here sooner or later.  The new congressional district here is bound to be a VRA seat, and the state GOP is disgraced by people like Mark Sanford and Joe Wilson.  The 2010 governor’s race between Haley and Sheheen was closer than expected too.  Likely R, and a potential sleeper.

Georgia – One of Barack Obama’s strongest improvements from Kerry in 2004 came here, losing 47/52.  The growth here is in metro Atlanta, the most democratic part of the state, though the 2010 governor election between Deal and Barnes was disappointing.  Georgia’s house democrats did all right for the most part in 2010.  If Obama wins by as big a margin or bigger in 2012 he might have a shot here, but for now I say Lean R.

Florida – Florida is one state that really concerns me.  Obama only won here by 3%, 4% behind his national win, and the republicans absolutely killed it in 2010, winning 4 house seats and winning massively in the Senate race.  They even saw virtual criminal Rick Scott beat Alex Sink for the governorship.  I feel like this state is trending R, but I’m leaving it at tossup for the time being due to Obama’s appeal in the southeast corridor.

Ohio – Ohio is a state that gave Obama trouble in 2008, winning 52/47, just behind his national win.  Ohio dems got killed in 2010, losing 5 house seats, and Strickland lost the governorship to Kasich, albeit in a close fight.  2010 was essentially 2006 in reverse here, which leads me to believe that it will stay close to the nation as a whole once again.  Obama’s hugely popular in the major cities here, which helps.  Tossup.

Indiana – The Hoosier state appears to have reverted to its republican lean, with a blowout Senate race win in 2010 and a pickup of 2 house seats for the R’s.  But the one house seat in a swing PVI district, they lost, which is a concern for them.  I think that Obama is committed to fighting it out here like he did in 2010 and he’s got major popularity throughout the midwest, but I say Lean R going in.  

Michigan – Michigan is weird.  It’s gone D the last 5 presidential races, and Obama crushed here in 2008.  Yet 2010 was nasty for Dems, they lost 2 house seats and got destroyed in the governor’s race.  I don’t have much more than a hunch on this, but I think that the republican wave in 2010 was a one cycle aberration, and the states democratic lean will come back big in 2012.  Lean D.

Wisconsin – Now here’s a state that’s hot, hot, hot politically right now.  Obama’s popularity in the upper midwest combined with the vicious overreach that governor Walker and the state GOP is pulling right now could have a reverberating effect in the state and region.  I just feel really good about all these upper midwest states, don’t know why, but I do.  Lean D.

Minnesota – The Republicans held their convention here in 2008, but still couldn’t come within 10% of winning.  Now they did make big gains to win both houses of the legislature but still lost the governor’s race, an obvious red flag in a year as good as 2010.  Minnesota hasn’t gone red in seemingly forever, and I don’t expect this to be the year either.  Lean D.

Iowa – This heartland state always has a big impact on presidential politics, and it figures to be a swing state again in 2012.  It always stays close to the national average, probably about as democratic as Ohio is republican.  Iowa dems actually did pretty well in the legislature in 2010 despite losing big in the senate and governor’s races, and they kept their 3 house seats.  It’s a tossup, barely, I feel good about it.

Missouri – Obama just barely lost here in 2008, and the state is trending republican, despite their democratic governor being very popular.  The 2010 senate race was a blowout, and it appears that the rural areas are getting to be off limits to Dems.  I’m going to put this one at Lean R at the outset.

Colorado – This state has quickly moved into the tossup range of presidential politics, and the democrats had some encouraging signs here in 2010, most notably holding the governor and senate seats that year, despite losing 2 house seats.  I’m not willing to put this one into the leaning D column yet, but demographic shifts are helping the dems here too.  Tossup.

North/South Dakota – The Dakotas are both very small states, and states that McCain didn’t really perform all that well in.  Now it appears that they are turning in the rightward direction a bit, but it’s hard to base anything on the 2010 senate contests as one race wasn’t contested and the other saw probably the most popular pol in the US to his state, John Hoeven, romp to a big win.  I think that these could be in play if Obama wins big.  Likely R.

New Mexico – This is a state that is really turning in the blue direction.  The 2010 wave didn’t hit especially hard here, despite losing the governorship and one house seat.  It’s hard to imagine the republicans getting a win here in an even presidential cycle given the state’s general movement toward the democrats, and Obama won 57/42 in 2008.  Likely D.

Montana – The high plains were a big stomping ground for Bush in 2000/2004, but Obama really pressed McCain here in 2008, losing by just 2%.  I think that it’s very possible that Obama could play here, especially with a competitive senate race on tap as well.  I don’t know much about the state honestly, so I’ll say Lean R.

Arizona – This is probably the single toughest state to call in 2012 because the state appears to have moved to the republican side due to SB1070 and a few other factors, but the presidential race could have been close in 2008 had it not been for the McCain home state effect.  With an intriguing senate race on the board too, this will be interesting.  I start this out at Likely R.

Nevada – This, like New Mexico, is another state that appears to be moving toward being solidly democratic, as evidenced by Harry Reid’s 2010 win in a bad year.  Obama won big here in 2012, and the pollsters seem to rate this state as being more republican than it really is.  I’m starting Nevada out at Lean D.

Baseline: The current Obama approval / disapproval in the pollster.com regression is 48.4 to 46.3 in favor.  Assuming that every voter who approves of Obama votes for him and everybody that disapproves doesn’t, that gives him about a 2% polling advantage, which I extrapolate to about a 2% national victory for Obama over whomever the Republicans nominate if the election were to be held today.  (Obviously, the person the Republican Party nominates could have a big impact on polling numbers, but I’m not going to consider that aspect of it yet)  These following ratings assume a 2% democratic win based on the current pollster regression.  

Solid D – Dark Blue

Likely D – Medium Blue

Lean D – Light Blue

Toss Up – Green

Lean R – Pink

Likely R – Bright Red

Solid R – Dark Red

Welcome everybody, this is StephenCLE’s 2010 Election Predictions – Final Edition!!

After 8 long months of analysis and prognostication, we’ve finally reached the end of the road.  As most of you know already it’s rather stormy out for us this year, and many of these final calls will reflect that.  However, I will preface this update with two key pieces of information.

1.We’ve seen many more republican polls this cycle than democratic, and most independent polling has been conducted with likely voter screens that are likely to exclude many democratic base voters.

2.Most of the polling we’ve seen yesterday and today were conducted over Halloween weekend, thus amplifying the normal bullshit that spews out from campaigns in the final days before the election.

What those two things mean is that I have made up my mind on most of these calls from at least a week or so ago, as I think you can get burned by looking at the very late news and polls, especially when you have so much early voting going on this day and age.  Those two things being said, tomorrow night is still shaping up to be a strong night for the GOP.  I’ll take you through my predictions, starting with the Senate and the Governors races before getting to the heavy meat of the House last.  All democrats are listed on the left of the column, republicans on the right, with pickups in bold a la Spiderdem’s posts earlier today.  3…2…1…GO!

The Final Senate Map:

Final Senate Predictions 2010 –

Alaska – McAdams 29 – Miller 32 – Murkowski 37

Alabama – Barnes 29 – Shelby 70

Arkansas – Lincoln 40 – Boozman 58

Arizona – Glassman 36 – McCain 63

California – Boxer 51 – Fiorina 46

Colorado – Bennet 50 – Buck 48

Connecticut – Blumenthal 55 – McMahon 42

Delaware – Coons 57 – Odonnell 41

Florida – Meek 24 – Rubio 44 – Crist 30

Georgia – Thurmond 40 – Isakson 57

Hawaii – Inouye 65 – Cavasso 33

Iowa – Conlin 38 – Grassley 61

Idaho – Sullivan 25 – Crapo 73

Illinois – Giannoulias 46 – Kirk 48

Indiana – Ellsworth 45 – Coats 54

Kansas – Johnston 35 – Moran 64

Kentucky – Conway 46 – Paul 52

Louisiana – Melancon 43 – Vitter 55

Maryland – Mikulski 57 – Wargotz 39

Missouri – Carnahan 46 – Blunt 53

North Carolina – Marshall 44 – Burr 54

North Dakota – Potter 27 – Hoeven 72

New Hampshire – Hodes 43 – Ayotte 54

Nevada – Reid 46 – Angle 47

New York – Schumer 64 – Townsend 34

New York-B – Gillibrand 60 – Dioguardi 39

Ohio – Fisher 42 – Portman 57

Oklahoma – Rogers 24 – Coburn 73

Oregon – Wyden 55 – Huffman 43

Pennsylvania – Sestak 49 – Toomey 48

South Carolina – Greene 22 – Demint 76

South Dakota – Thune unopposed

Utah – Granato 37 – Lee 62

Vermont – Leahy 64 – Britton 34

Washington – Murray 52 – Rossi 47

Wisconsin – Feingold 46 – Johnson 52

West Virginia – Manchin 51 – Raese 47

Old Senate – 59 Democrats, 41 Republicans

New Senate 53 Democrats, 47 Republicans

Swing – Republicans +6

Commentary:  Here’s my take on the Senate.  The range for the democrats is between 51 and 55 in my opinion.  I think Kentucky and Missouri are off the board, those were the best shots for a pickup throughout most of the cycle.  Alaska is kinda out there still, but I’d be stunned if McAdams somehow pulled it out over Murkowski and Miller.  With no pickups to be had, it’s a matter of counting up the seats for the GOP.   The Republicans are almost certain to pick up 4 seats, North Dakota, Arkansas, Indiana, and Wisconsin, although the last of those four isn’t totally gone.  Then you have 4 seats that are truly competitive, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Nevada, and Illinois.  Colorado is a total coin flip, it’s a swing state with two fairly unknown quantities for candidates.  The fact that Buck hasn’t been able to get any separation from Bennet tells me that the late democratic ground game will probably put him over the line.  Nevada looks bad according to the public polls, but the news from the ground there seems to contradict the polls.  Ultimately, I think that Reid’s huge unpopularity, unfortunately, will be such that Angle will just barely win it in a race that could end up going to a recount.  The same theme plays out in Illinois, a normally blue state but where Alexi Giannoulias is just a horrible candidate.  In the end, Kirk I’m fairly certain will clean up big with independents and get just enough democrats to cross the aisle to get him a victory.  The last race is perhaps the most intriguing.  Pat Toomey has led the whole campaign, but he’s stumbled big time lately as Joe Sestak has pushed hard for the finish like he did in the primary.  What I think is fishy in most public polling recently is that supposedly, Toomey has kept ahead by 2-3 points all the while Dan Onorato keeps gaining on the once unassailable Tom Corbett.  That doesn’t compute.  Maybe it’s a bit of a gutsy call, but I think the strong democratic ground game and some consistently bad polling in favor of Toomey will result in Sestak just barely pulling this one out, another recount-worthy race

The Final Governors Map:

Final Governor Predictions 2010 –

Alaska – Berkowitz 40 – Parnell 57

Alabama – Sparks 38 – Bentley 60

Arkansas – Beebe 60 – Keet 37

Arizona – Goddard 46 – Brewer 53

California – Brown 53 – Whitman 44

Colorado – Hickenlooper 52 – Maes 8 – Tancredo 40

Connecticut – Malloy 50 – Foley 47

Florida – Sink 50 – Scott 48

Georgia – Barnes 45 – Deal 53

Hawaii – Abercrombie 56 – Aiona 43

Iowa – Culver 43 – Branstad 55

Idaho – Allred 34 – Otter 64

Illinois – Quinn 44 – Brady 46

Kansas – Holland 36 – Brownback 63

Massachusetts – Patrick 47 – Baker 42 – Cahill 9

Maryland – O’Malley 55 – Ehrlich 44

Maine – Mitchell 23 – LePage 40 – Cutler 35

Michigan – Bernero 43 – Snyder 56

Minnesota – Dayton 44 – Emmer 38 – Horner 16

Nebraska – Meister 27 – Heineman 72

New Hampshire – Lynch 57 – Stephen 42

New Mexico – Denish 46 – Martinez 52

Nevada – Reid 41 – Sandoval 56

New York – Cuomo 62 – Paladino 35

Ohio – Strickland 49 – Kasich 48

Oklahoma – Askins 36 – Fallin 62

Oregon – Kitzhaber 50 – Dudley 46

Pennsylvania – Onorato 45 – Corbett 53

Rhode Island – Caprio 29 – Robataille 30 – Chafee 38

South Carolina – Sheheen 46 – Haley 53

South Dakota – Heidepriem 38 – Daugaard 60

Tennessee – McWherter 35 – Haslam 64

Texas – White 47 – Perry 52

Utah – Corroon 32 – Herbert 66

Vermont – Shumlin 52 – Dubie 46

Wisconsin – Barrett 46 – Walker 53

Wyoming – Peterson 29 – Mead 70

Old Governors – 26 Democrats, 24 Republicans

New Governors – 21 Democrats, 28 Republicans, 1 Independent

Swing – Republicans +4.5

The governors races are sleepy for the most part, a lot of small states like Wyoming, Maine, Kansas, Vermont, and Hawaii changing hands.  But what isn’t sleepy is that the balance of power here will swing in the republican direction somewhat.  They will pick up a few bigger states, like Pennsylvania, which could give them total control of redistricting there.  Michigan will be a nice win for them as well, and will stop a potential democratic gerrymander there.  The Midwest seems to be their main proving ground, as Wisconsin and Iowa are almost surely to turn red as well.  Two big Midwestern states are up for grabs as well.  In Illinois, it’s down to the wire between Pat Quinn and Bill Brady.  Ultimately I think Brady wins here, possibly due to the presence of democrat turned independent Scott Lee Cohen.  It’ll be a close one.  Ohio meanwhile, is one of the two biggest prizes in the governors scene this cycle, and it’s a pure toss up between Ted Strickland and John Kasich.  Seeing what I’m seeing on the ground here in Ohio, I think it’s possibly headed to a recount, and I think the democratic strength in the ground game will barely get Strickland over the line.  A similar scene I think will play out in Florida, where Alex Sink will pull out a tight one against Rick Scott due to Scott’s general yuckiness.  These are the two most important results of the night as they will stop gerrymanders in Florida and Ohio.  The nature of the cycle will save another unlikeable big-state governor, Rick Perry of Texas.  I think Bill White overperforms the polls a bit but cannot pull out the win.  Meanwhile in California, Jerry Brown will comfortably win over Meg Whitman.  So the big states don’t look too bad on paper, but Florida and Ohio will determine the narrative.

The Final House Map:

Final House Predictions 2010 – (these are all races that were in the likely D, lean D, toss up, lean R, or likely R column, ie: on the board, obviously I don’t think any safe D or safe R seats are turning over)

Alabama-2 – Bright 50 – Roby 49

Alabama-5 – Raby 44 – Brooks 55

Arizona-1 – Kirkpatrick 46 – Gosar 53

Arizona-3 – Hulburd 47 – Quayle 51

Arizona-5 – Mitchell 48 – Schweikert 51

Arizona-7 – Grijalva 55 – McClung 44

Arizona-8 – Giffords 53 – Kelly 46

Arkansas-1 – Causey 47 – Crawford 52

Arkansas-2 – Elliott 42 – Griffin 56

Arkansas-4 – Ross 55 – Rankin 43

California-11 – McNerney 49 – Harmer 50

California-18 – Cardoza 53 – Berryhill 46

California-20 – Costa 51 – Vidak 48

California-3 – Bera 47 – Lungren 52

California-44 – Hedrick 46 – Calvert 52

California-45 – Pougnet 46 – Bono Mack 53

California-47 – Sanchez 51 – Tran 47

Colorado-3 – Salazar 49 – Tipton 50

Colorado-4 – Markey 45 – Gardner 54

Colorado-7 – Frazier 48 – Perlmutter 51

Connecticut-4 – Debicella 46 – Himes 53

Connecticut-5 – Caligiuri 47 – Murphy 52

Delaware-1 – Carney 56 – Urquhart 43

Florida-12 – Edwards 48 – Ross 51

Florida-2 – Boyd 42 – Southerland 56

Florida-22 – Klein 49 – West 50

Florida-24  – Kosmas 45 – Adams 53

Florida-25 – Garcia 50 – Rivera 49

Florida-8 – Grayson 46 – Webster 52

Georgia-12 – Barrow 55 – McKinney 44

Georgia-2 – Bishop 48 – Keown 51

Georgia-8 – Marshall 45 – Scott 54

Hawaii-1 – Hanabusa 53 – Djou 46

Idaho-1 – Minnick 51 – Labrador 48

Illinois-10 – Seals 52 – Dold 46

Illinois-11 – Halvorson 41 – Kinzinger 57

Illinois-12 – Costello 56 – Newman 43

Illinois-14 – Foster 49 – Hultgren 50

Illinois-17 – Hare 48 – Schilling 50

Indiana-2 – Donnelly 54 – Walorski 45

Indiana-8 – Van Haaften 44 – Bucshon 55

Indiana-9 – Hill 50 – Young 49

Iowa-1 – Braley 54 – Lange 45

Iowa-2 – Loebsack 53 – Miller-Meeks 46

Iowa-3 – Boswell 50 – Zaun 48

Kansas-3 – Moore 47 – Yoder 52

Kansas-4 – Goyle 45 – Pompeo 54

Kentucky-6 – Chandler 51 – Barr 48

Louisiana-2 – Richmond 61 – Cao 38

Louisiana-3 – Sangisetty 40 – Landry 58

Maine-1 – Pingree 51 – Scontras 48

Maryland-1 – Kratovil 47 – Harris 51

Massachusetts-10 – Keating 52 – Perry 47

Michigan-1 – McDowell 46 – Benishek 52

Michigan-7 – Schauer 52 – Walberg 46

Michigan-9 – Peters 51 – Raczkowski 48

Minnesota-1 – Walz 52 – Demmer 47

Minnesota-6 – Clark 46 – Bachmann 53

Minnesota-8 – Oberstar 52 – Cravaack 46

Mississippi-1 – Childers 47 – Nunnelee 51

Mississippi-4 – Taylor 49 – Palazzo 50

Missouri-4 – Skelton 50 – Hartzler 48

Nebraska-2 – White 44 – Terry 54

Nevada-3 – Titus 48 – Heck 51

New Hampshire-1 – Shea-Porter 46 – Guinta 52

New Hampshire-2 – Kuster 50 – Bass 49

New Jersey-12 – Holt 52 – Sipprelle 47

New Jersey-3 – Adler 48 – Runyan 51

New Jersey-6 – Pallone 53 – Little 45

New Mexico-1 – Heinrich 51 – Barela 47

New Mexico-2 – Teague 48 – Pearce 50

New Mexico-3 – Lujan 53 – Mullins 45

New York-1 – Bishop 54 – Altschuler 45

New York-13 – McMahon 51 – Grimm 47

New York-19 – Hall 48 – Hayworth 51

New York-20 – Murphy 50 – Gibson 49

New York-22 – Hinchey 54 – Phillips 45

New York-23 – Owens 48 – Doheny 50

New York-25 – Maffei 55 – Buerkle 44

New York-29 – Zeller 42 – Reed 56

North Carolina-11 – Shuler 54 – Miller 45

North Carolina-2 – Etheridge 51 – Ellmers 48

North Carolina-7 – McIntyre 50 – Pantano 48

North Carolina-8 – Kissell 47 – Johnson 51

North Dakota-1 – Pomeroy 47 – Berg 52

Ohio-1 – Driehaus 45 – Chabot 54

Ohio-6 – Wilson 53 – Johnson 45

Ohio-10 – Kucinich 55 – Corrigan 44

Ohio-12 – Brooks 43 – Tiberi 55

Ohio-13 – Sutton 54 – Ganley 45

Ohio-15 – Kilroy 47 – Stivers 51

Ohio-16 – Boccieri 50 – Renacci 49

Ohio-18 – Space 51 – Gibbs 47

Oregon-5 – Schrader 50 – Bruun 48

Pennsylvania-10 – Carney 49 – Marino 50

Pennsylvania-11 – Kanjorski 51 – Barletta 48

Pennsylvania-12 – Critz 52 – Burns 47

Pennsylvania-15 – Callahan 45 – Dent 54

Pennsylvania-17 – Holden 56 – Argall 42

Pennsylvania-3 – Dahlkemper 44 – Kelly 55

Pennsylvania-4 – Altmire 53 – Rothfus 45

Pennsylvania-6 – Trivedi 43 – Gerlach 55

Pennsylvania-7 – Lentz 49 – Meehan 50

Pennsylvania-8 – Murphy 50 – Fitzpatrick 49

South Carolina-2 – Miller 44 – Wilson 54

South Carolina-5 – Spratt 46 – Mulvaney 53

South Dakota-1 – Herseth 51 – Noem 48

Tennessee-4 – Davis 48 – Dejarlais 50

Tennessee-6 – Carter 37 – Black 62

Tennessee-8 – Herron 45 – Fincher 54

Texas-17 – Edwards 45 – Flores 53

Texas-23 – Rodriguez 48 – Canseco 51

Texas-27 – Ortiz 53 – Farenthold 45

Utah-2 – Matheson 55 – Philpot 44

Virginia-1 – Ball 43 – Wittman 56

Virginia-11 – Connolly 51 – Fimian 48

Virginia-2 – Nye 47 – Rigell 51

Virginia-5 – Perriello 46 – Hurt 52

Virginia-9 – Boucher 50 – Griffith 48

Washington-2 – Larsen 51 – Koster 48

Washington-3 – Heck 45 – Herrera 53

Washington-8 – Delbene 49 – Reichert 50

Washington-9 – Smith 53 – Muri 46

West Virginia-1 – Oliverio 48 – McKinley 50

Wisconsin-3 – Kind 52 – Kapanke 47

Wisconsin-7 – Lassa 47 – Duffy 51

Wisconsin-8 – Kagen 48 – Ribble 50

Old House – Democrats 256 – Republicans 179

New House – Democrats 213 – Republicans 222

Swing – Republicans +43

The House I think is still going to be a close fight, but going through all the seats, I now think it’s likely that the Republicans will be able to muster a small majority at the end of the night, picking up 48 seats and dropping 5 for a net gain of 43.  The south is where the bottom is clearly falling out on team blue, and it shows from the generic ballot readings in that region, which will cause incumbents like Lincoln Davis and Sanford Bishop to go down.  I even think Gene Taylor will get his walking papers as well, though a few others like Bobby Bright and Rick Boucher will survive.  Arkansas & Tennessee in particular are going to be a bloodbath, Florida doesn’t look much better with Allen Boyd, Alan Grayson, and Suzanne Kosmas going down, although Joe Garcia will pull it out in FL-25.  The Northeast region doesn’t look too bad, though the recent polls in Connecticut and New York are a bit disconcerting.  I have the Democrats dropping 3 seats in New York, and 3 more in Pennsylvania.  PA is tough because there are so many close seats, I actually pulled back Paul Kanjorski but Chris Carney and Kathy Dahlkemper will still go down.  The open seat in PA-7 between Meehan and Lentz is going to be a major tell as to who will win the House at the end of the night.  Another key seat is going to be OH-16, where John Boccieri faces Jim Renacci.  The Midwest looks to be tough on the whole, but not as tough as the southeast.  I have 2 seats dropping in Wisconsin, Indiana, and Ohio, while Illinois drops three but gains back one in IL-10.  Farther out west, Colorado looks tough, as I have Betsy Markey and John Salazar going down.  In Texas, Ciro Rodriguez’s race looks like it could be a race that decides the House majority, I have him losing narrowly while Chet Edwards gets walloped.  Arizona is a very interesting state, I have Harry Mitchell and Ann Kirkpatrick losing, though the Dems could get AZ-3 or lose AZ-7 and AZ-8 on a bad night.  The west coast is mostly sleepy, I only expect one seat to change in California and one in Washington.  The most interesting races here could be Walt Minnick’s race in ID-1 and Colleen Hanabusa’s in HI-1, I have both winning.  In the end, a valiant effort by the House Dems that comes up just short.

Welcome to this super-massive edition of StephenCLE’s Election Rankings:

With election day now just 12 days away, in an effort to avoid spamming up the diaries area, I have combined all of my prognostications into one, industrial-sized effort. So here we go.  

Ladies and gentlemen of SSP, I am frustrated.  I am also annoyed.  The reason for my trouble is that I don’t know what to believe.  This whole time, democrats in the House have been running ahead of the national generic ballot, and I held onto the belief that at some point, either the national polls or the state/district polls had to relent and fall in line with the other.  It now appears obvious that this is not likely.  This week actually saw most Senate democrats improving their position in all regions except for the west coast, and though some House democrats struggled this week, others improved their position.  Yet the generic ballot got worse for Team Blue, surging from a 4.5 point republican advantage last week to a 6-point lead in the most recent pollster.com average.  So now I’m stuck between trying to decide who is the real adjudicator of truth.  In most cases, I’m starting to hedge a bit on the individual district polls, subtracting a point or two from the democratic totals to attribute for the generic ballot.

The other big development within the past week is that the playing field has expanded, not just on the democratic side, but the republican one as well.  Many R-leaning seats that appeared out of reach seem to be attainable for the democrats, prompting many leftward changes.  So without further ado, here’s where we stand:

Old House – 256 Democrats, 179 Republicans

New House – 219 Democrats, 216 Republicans

National Swing – Republicans +37

Democratic Pickups (6) – DE-1, FL-25, IL-10, LA-2, HI-1, WA-8

Republican Pickups (43) – AR-1, AR-2, AZ-1, AZ-5, CA-11, CO-3, CO-4, FL-2, FL-8, FL-24, GA-8, IL-11, IL-14, IL-17, IN-8, KS-3, LA-3, MD-1, MI-1, MS-1, NH-1, ND-1, NC-8, NY-19, NY-29, OH-1, OH-15, OH-16, PA-3, PA-7, PA-10, PA-11, SC-5, TN-4, TN-6, TN-8, TX-17, TX-23, VA-2, VA-5, WA-3, WI-7, WI-8, WV-1

Pickup Changes from last month:

Democrat to Republican – AZ-5, IL-17, NC-8, NH-1, PA-10, TN-4, WV-1

Republican to Democrat – NH-2, PA-8

Net Seats Changing By Region:

Northeast (New England & Mid-Atlantic) – R+8

Southeast (Border South & Deep South) – R+15

Midwest (Great Lakes & Plains) – R+10

West (Rocky Mountains & Pacific Coast) – R+5

The Map:

Ratings Changes for October 13-20:

1.New York-22 – Solid D to Lean D – It’s not good to lose your cool in politics.  For shame Hinchey.

2.Ohio-10 – Solid D to Likely D – I’ve always thought Kucinich’s unpopularity could make this interesting.

3.Maine-2 – Likely D to Solid D – Polling suggests that Michaud is pretty much safe now.

4.Ohio-6 – Likely D to Lean D – Rumors of Wilson’s domestic abuse are disquieting.

5.California-20 – Likely D to Lean D – The Central Valley could be intimidating, but Costa still leads.

6.Arkansas-4 – Lean D to Likely D – Ross leading big in polling this week, is looking good.

7.Pennsylvania-13 – Likely D to Solid D – Philly Burbs are moving back to Ds, good news for Schwartz.

8.New York-23 – Lean D to Toss Up – 2-way race makes it harder on Owens to win.  

9.New York-24 – Toss Up/Tilt D to Lean D – Arcuri has been surprisingly strong this cycle.

10.New Jersey-12 – Likely D to Lean D – Polls show Holt only up by 5.

11.Minnesota-1 – Likely D to Lean D – Walz in slightly tighter race than thought, but still ahead.

12.Oregon-5 – Lean D to Toss Up/Tilt D – Schrader locked in a tight one with Bruun.

13.Illinois-17 – Lean D to Toss Up/Tilt R – Hare got caught totally flatfooted, and the top of ticket sucks.

14.North Carolina-8 – Lean D to Toss Up/Tilt R – This move is more national, Kissell’s probably eroded.

15.New Hampshire-1 – Toss Up/Tilt D to Toss Up/Tilt R – Shea-Porter consistently behind in polling.

16.New Hampshire-2 – Toss Up/Tilt R to Toss Up/Tilt D – Phenomenal surge by Kuster recently.

17.Pennsylvania-3 – Toss Up/Tilt R to Lean R – Re-election chances slipping away for Dahlkemper.

18.Pennsylvania-8 – Toss Up/Tilt R to Toss Up/Tilt D – Philly burbs going blue gets Murphy over hump.

19.Pennsylvania-10 – Toss Up/Tilt D to Toss Up/Tilt R – District simply too red for Carney this year.

20.Tennessee-4 – Toss Up/Tilt D to Toss Up/Tilt R – Dejarlais has lead, and generic ballot is scary.

21.Washington-3 – Toss Up/Tilt R to Lean R – Herrera might win this without even campaigning.

22.Arkansas-1 – Lean R to Toss Up/Tilt R – Causey still alive in close race with AR improving barely.

23.Arizona-3 – Lean R to Toss Up/Tilt R – Hulburd lead from PPP means it’s game on here.

24.Arizona-5 – Toss Up/Tilt D to Toss Up/Tilt R – Can’t make up my mind on this one, national move.

25.West Virginia-1 – Toss Up/Tilt D to Toss Up/Tilt R – Same here, national move over local race.  

26.California-44 – Likely R to Lean R – Hedrick showing competitive in polls, if only he had the cash.

27.Tennessee-5 – Solid D to Likely D – The PVI suggests that Cooper could be in trouble in a wave state.

The Senate:

The situation in the Senate has improved rather dramatically for Team Blue in the last several days, to the point where it is now fairly conceivable to see them keep 55 or 56 seats if everything goes their way on election night.  Pennsylvania is definitely the biggest mover, as I now have that seat moving into the blue column while Nevada actually drifted the other way.  West Virginia is now on the positive side of the ledger as well (unless you’re a republican).  Missouri and Kentucky are definitely races to watch now as well, as Carnahan and Conway saw good polling results this week, especially the latter.  I’ve moved both races to toss-up.  In all honesty, I think that Missouri could be this week’s Pennsylvania, and that a Carnahan close similar to Sestak could be coming.  New Hampshire is still out there, but it’s a very unlikely victory I think.  The 4th and final seat that the democrats might have a shot at is Alaska, which has de-generated into a 3-way free-for-all.  For the purposes of that race, I consider Miller and Murkowski one in the same, and the Dem chances are solely the chances that McAdams wins.  I’ve included my probabilities of each seat flipping on the commentary.

First off, to the map:

Senate Math:

Current Senate – 59 Democrats, 41 Republicans

New Senate – 53 Democrats, 47 Republicans

Swing – Republicans +6

Pickups (listed in order of likelihood)

Dem pickups – none

Rep pickups – North Dakota, Arkansas, Indiana, Wisconsin, Colorado, Nevada

Ratings Commentary:

1.North Dakota (100%) – This one’s a lock.  

2.Arkansas (99%) – This seat is virtually gone as well.  Blanche is becoming marginally better in polling, but Boozman is still well over 50%.  This would be a real miracle.

3.Indiana (96%) – Now that Ellsworth is up with ads all over Indiana, I wonder if this race has tightened at all.  The dearth of polling here makes it hard to tell.  Still, Coats is extremely likely to win here.

4.Wisconsin (85%) – Feingold is improving marginally in the polls now, but Johnson is still pulling in at least 49% in every poll I’ve seen.  Still hard to see how Feingold pulls it out unless if Johnson loses his favorables somehow as Feingold is a known quantity.

5.Colorado (58%) – This race is still close, with both sides claiming a lead in various surveys.  I’m surprised that the independent nature of the CO electorate hasn’t turned against Bennet, he’s actually been quite impressive and has about a 4 in 10 chance of pulling it off.

6.Nevada (52%) – Angle has moved into the lead, barely.  But the fact that she has any lead at all speaks to just how much Nevadans don’t like Harry Reid.  This is going to be a very ugly finish on both sides, and it’s a jump ball.

——————————————————————————————————————————————–

7.Illinois (49%) – This begins the start of the blue column, and it’s a cliffhanger right now between Giannoulias and Kirk.  The fact that PPP had Kirk leading this week really concerns me, as it shows that maybe Democrats won’t come home to Alexi like I thought they would.  Still, I think Giannoulias wins this one because of IL’s partisan lean.

8.Pennsylvania (46%) – This race started moving a bit last week, and I got some flak for moving this race into the toss-up column.  While I don’t want to self-gloss, that was the right call, as earlier this week Joe Sestak surged into a statistical tie with Pat Toomey and probably a very small lead if PPP, Quinnipiac, and Muhlenberg are to be believed.  This one is better than IL because Sestak is better than Giannoulias.

9.West Virginia (39%) – We have a bit of conflicting data right now in WV.  Some polls late last week made it look like Manchin was pulling away, yet Scotty Rass came to Raese’s rescue earlier this week with both his original recipe and extra crispy polling.  I suspect that Manchin is winning, and that he’ll pull away late because of his extremely strong favorables.

10.Washington (34%) – Unlike other parts of the country, it appears that the west coast is moving rightward right now, and Dino Rossi has closed the gap somewhat on Patty Murray.  I’ve yet to see him get over the 46% mark in any polls though, and that has to be a concern for any GOPers that are hoping for a pickup here.  Murray’s favorables are still very good.

11.Kentucky (32%) – Kentucky makes a foray into the rankings on the back of several good polls for Jack Conway.  This is probably a low single digit race now, and if the undecideds break away from Paul, who knows, this one could turn over.  I’m ambivalent though because after all, this is Kentucky.

12.Alaska (23%) – The crazy three-way nature of this race makes this one unpredictable.  The major question on everybody’s mind is whether or not people will write in for Murkowski like they are telling pollsters, and if not, to whom will they go, Miller or McAdams?  This is probably a 35-35-28 race right now, putting it in the same neighborhood as CA and MO, just slightly higher because of ballot situation.

13.California (19%) – Fiorina is showing some fight even though her compatriot Meg Whitman is falling in the governor’s race.  She’s even tied with Boxer in some republican polling, although Boxer has a lead in all independent surveys that I’ve seen.  Still, this is going to be a very tough one for Fiorina to pull out because of CA’s democratic electorate.

14.Missouri (17%) – Roy Blunt’s lead on Robin Carnahan has dropped into the mid-single digits, and what I think is telling is that, even in his best of surveys, Blunt was barely hitting the 50% mark.  If Carnahan closes strongly, this could be a race that shocks everybody on election night.  I’ve always thought that Carnahan was the superior candidate anyway.

Pretty much everything is quiet on the gubernatorial side of things.  I only had one governorship changing hands this week, that one being Maine where Paul LePage has led by 3-5 points in most recent polls.  But considering those leads are of the 33-28-14 variety, anything is still possible here.  

The governor races I’m watching most closely are all cliffhangers, those being Florida, Oregon, Vermont, Ohio, and Maine.  Florida and Ohio are huge races not only for the statehouse balance but also for redistricting, as wins by Alex Sink and Ted Strickland would undo republican gerrymanders of congressional seats.  Right now I have Sink barely ahead, Strickland barely behind.  At the moment I have Kitzhaber and Shumlin barely ahead as well, though I’m more confident about the former than the latter.

One last note, Rhode Island, I consider independent candidate Lincoln Chafee as a democrat, so combined between him and Frank Caprio, RI-Gov is a solid D pickup.

Current Governors – 26 democrats, 24 republicans

New Governors – 20 democrats, 30 republicans

Swing – Republicans +6

Pickups (listed in order of likelihood)

Dem Pickups – Rhode Island, Connecticut, Minnesota, Hawaii, California, Florida, Vermont

Rep Pickups – Wyoming, Kansas, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Illinois, Ohio, Maine

The Map:

And now, the Big Boards:

2010 House Big Board (as of October 21 update)

Solid Dem – 146 seats:

AL-7, AZ-4, CA-1, CA-5, CA-6, CA-7, CA-8, CA-9, CA-10, CA-11, CA-12, CA-13, CA-14, CA-15, CA-16, CA-17, CA-23, CA-27, CA-28, CA-29, CA-30, CA-31, CA-32, CA-33, CA-34, CA-35, CA-36, CA-37, CA-38, CA-39, CA-43, CA-51, CA-53, CO-1, CO-2, CT-1, CT-2, CT-3, FL-3, FL-11, FL-17, FL-19, FL-20, FL-23, GA-4, GA-5, GA-13, HI-2, IL-1, IL-2, IL-3, IL-4, IL-5, IL-7, IL-8, IL-9, IN-1, IN-7, KY-3, MD-2, MD-3, MD-4, MD-5, MD-7, MD-8, MA-1, MA-2, MA-3, MA-4, MA-6, MA-7, MA-8, MA-9, ME-1, ME-2, MI-5, MI-12, MI-13, MI-14, MN-4, MN-5, MN-7, MS-2, MO-1, MO-3, MO-5, NV-1, NJ-1, NJ-6, NJ-8, NJ-9, NJ-10, NJ-13, NY-2, NY-4, NY-5, NY-6, NY-7, NY-8, NY-9, NY-10, NY-11, NY-12, NY-14, NY-15, NY-16, NY-17, NY-18, NY-21, NY-27, NY-28, NC-1, NC-4, NC-12, NC-13, OH-9, OH-11, OH-17, OK-2, OR-3, OR-4, PA-1, PA-2, PA-13, PA-14, RI-1, RI-2, SC-6, TN-9, TX-9, TX-15, TX-16, TX-18, TX-20, TX-25, TX-28, TX-29, TX-30, VT-1, VA-3, VA-8, WA-1, WA-6, WA-7, WV-3, WI-2, WI-4

Likely Dem – 28 seats:

Arkansas-4 (Ross)

Arizona-7 (Grijalva)

Arizona-8 (Giffords)

Connecticut-4 (Himes)

Delaware-1 (Open)

Georgia-12 (Barrow)

Illinois-12 (Costello)

Indiana-2 (Donnelly)

Louisiana-2 (Cao)

Massachusetts-5 (Tsongas)

Michigan-15 (Dingell)

Minnesota-8 (Oberstar)

North Carolina-2 (Etheridge)

North Carolina-11 (Shuler)

New Mexico-3 (Lujan)

New York-20 (Murphy)

New York-25 (Maffei)

Ohio-10 (Kucinich)

Ohio-13 (Sutton)

Oregon-1 (Wu)

Pennsylvania-4 (Altmire)

Pennsylvania-17 (Holden)

Tennessee-5 (Cooper)

Virginia-9 (Boucher)

Virginia-11 (Connelly)

Utah-2 (Matheson)

Washington-9 (Smith)

Wisconsin-3 (Kind)

Lean Dem – 30 seats:

California-18 (Cardoza)

California-20 (Costa)

California-47 (Sanchez)

Colorado-7 (Perlmutter)

Connecticut-5 (Murphy)

Georgia-2 (Bishop)

Hawaii-1 (Djou)

Idaho-1 (Minnick)

Iowa-1 (Braley)

Iowa-2 (Loebsack)

Iowa-3 (Boswell)

Illinois-10 (Open)

Kentucky-6 (Chandler)

Massachusetts-10 (Open)

Michigan-9 (Peters)

Minnesota-1 (Walz)

Mississippi-4 (Taylor)

New Jersey-3 (Adler)

New Jersey-12 (Holt)

New Mexico-1 (Heinrich)

New York-1 (Bishop)

New York-13 (McMahon)

New York-22 (Hinchey)

New York-23 (Owens)

North Carolina-7 (McIntyre)

Ohio-16 (Wilson)

Ohio-18 (Space)

Pennsylvania-12 (Critz)

South Dakota-1 (Herseth)

Texas-27 (Ortiz)

Toss Up/Tilt Democratic – 15 seats:

Alabama-2 (Bright)

Florida-22 (Klein)

Florida-25 (Open)

Illinois-14 (Foster)

Indiana-9 (Hill)

Michigan-7 (Schauer)

Missouri-4 (Skelton)

Nevada-3 (Titus)

New Hampshire-2 (Open)

New Mexico-2 (Teague)

New York-23 (Owens)

Oregon-5 (Schrader)

Pennsylvania-8 (Murphy)

Washington-2 (Larsen)

Washington-8 (Reichert)

Toss Up/Tilt Republican – 27 seats:

Arizona-1 (Kirkpatrick)

Arizona-3 (Open)

Arizona-5 (Mitchell)

Arkansas-1 (Open)

California-3 (Lungren)

California-11 (McNerney)

Colorado-3 (Salazar)

Florida-2 (Boyd)

Florida-8 (Grayson)

Florida-12 (Open)

Georgia-8 (Marshall)

Illinois-17 (Hare)

Maryland-1 (Kratovil)

Michigan-1 (Open)

Mississippi-1 (Childers)

New Hampshire-1 (Shea-Porter)

New York-19 (Hall)

North Carolina-8 (Kissell)

North Dakota-1 (Pomeroy)

Ohio-16 (Boccieri)

Pennsylvania-7 (Open)

Pennsylvania-10 (Carney)

South Carolina-5 (Spratt)

Tennessee-4 (Davis)

Texas-23 (Rodriguez)

West Virginia-1 (Open)

Wisconsin-8 (Kagen)

Lean Rep – 21 seats:

Alabama-5 (Open)

California-44 (Calvert)

California-45 (Bono Mack)

Colorado-4 (Markey)

Florida-24 (Kosmas)

Illinois-11 (Halvorson)

Indiana-8 (Open)

Kansas-3 (Open)

Kansas-4 (Open)

Minnesota-6 (Bachmann)

Ohio-1 (Driehaus)

Ohio-15 (Kilroy)

Pennsylvania-3 (Dahlkemper)

Pennsylvania-11 (Kanjorski)

Pennsylvania-15 (Dent)

Virginia-2 (Nye)

Virginia-5 (Perriello)

Tennessee-8 (Open)

Texas-17 (Edwards)

Washington-3 (Open)

Wisconsin-7 (Open)

Likely Rep – 11 seats:

Arkansas-2 (Open)

Indiana-3 (Open)

Louisiana-3 (Open)

Michigan-3 (Open)

Nebraska-2 (Terry)

New York-29 (Open)

Ohio-12 (Tiberi)

Pennsylvania-6 (Gerlach)

Pennsylvania-16 (Pitts)

South Carolina-2 (Wilson)

Virginia-1 (Wittman)

Solid Rep – 156 seats:

AL-1, AL-3, AL-4, AL-6, AK-1, AZ-2, AZ-6, AR-3, CA-2, CA-4, CA-19, CA-21, CA-22, CA-24, CA-25, CA-26, CA-40, CA-41, CA-42, CA-46, CA-48, CA-49, CA-50, CA-52, CO-5, CO-6, FL-1, FL-4, FL-5, FL-6, FL-7, FL-9, FL-10, FL-13, FL-14, FL-15, FL-16, FL-18, FL-21, GA-1, GA-3, GA-7, GA-9, GA-10, GA-11, ID-2, IL-6, IL-13, IL-15, IL-16, IL-18, IL-19, IN-4, IN-5, IN-6, IA-4, IA-5, KS-1, KS-2, KY-1, KY-2, KY-4, KY-5, LA-1, LA-4, LA-5, LA-6, LA-7, MD-6, MI-2, MI-4, MI-6, MI-8, MI-10, MI-11, MN-2, MN-3, MS-3, MO-2, MO-6, MO-7, MO-8, MO-9, MT-1, NE-1, NE-3, NV-2, NJ-2, NJ-5, NJ-4, NJ-7, NJ-11, NY-3, NY-26, NC-3, NC-5, NC-6, NC-9, NC-10, OH-2, OH-3, OH-4, OH-5, OH-7, OH-8, OH-14, OK-1, OK-3, OK-4, OK-5, OR-2, PA-5, PA-9, PA-18, PA-19, SC-1, SC-3, SC-4, TN-1, TN-2, TN-3, TN-6, TN-7, TX-1, TX-2, TX-3, TX-4, TX-5, TX-6, TX-7, TX-8, TX-10, TX-11, TX-12, TX-13, TX-14, TX-19, TX-21, TX-22, TX-24, TX-26, TX-31, TX-32, UT-1, UT-3, VA-4, VA-6, VA-7, VA-10, WA-4, WA-5, WV-2, WI-1, WI-5, WI-6, WY-1

2010 Senate Big Board (as of October 21)

Solid Dem – 6 seats

Hawaii (Inouye)

Maryland (Mikulski)

New York (Schumer)

New York (Gillibrand)

Oregon (Wyden)

Vermont (Leahy)

Likely Dem – 2 seats

Connecticut (Blumenthal)

Delaware (Open)

Lean Dem – 1 seats

California (Boxer)

Toss Up/Tilt Democratic – 4 seats

Illinois (Open)

Pennsylvania (Open)

Washington (Murray)

West Virginia (Manchin)

Toss Up/Tilt Republican – 5 seats

Colorado (Open)

Missouri (Open)

Kentucky (Open)

Nevada (Reid)

Wisconsin (Feingold)

Lean Rep – 2 seats

Alaska (Murkowski)

New Hampshire (Open)

Likely Rep – 7 seats

Arkansas (Lincoln)

Florida (Open)

Indiana (Open)

Louisiana (Vitter)

North Carolina (Burr)

Ohio (Open)

Solid Rep – 11 seats

Arizona (McCain)

Alabama (Shelby)

Georgia (Isakson)

Idaho (Crapo)

Iowa (Grassley)

Kansas (Open)

North Dakota (Open)

Oklahoma (Coburn)

South Carolina (Demint)

South Dakota (Thune)

Utah (Open)

2010 Governors Big Board (as of October 21)

Solid Dem – 4 seats

Arkansas

New Hampshire

New York

Rhode Island

Likely Dem – 2 seats

Colorado

Connecticut

Lean Dem – 5 seats

California

Hawaii

Maryland

Massachusetts

Minnesota

Toss Up – 7 seats

Florida

Illinois

Maine

New Mexico

Ohio

Oregon

Vermont

Lean Rep – 5 seats

Georgia

Pennsylvania

South Carolina

Texas

Wisconsin

Likely Rep – 5 seats

Alaska

Arizona

Iowa

Michigan

Nevada

Solid Rep – 9 seats

Alabama

Idaho

Kansas

Nebraska

Oklahoma

South Dakota

Tennessee

Utah

Wyoming

Welcome to StephenCLE’s Senate & Governor Rankings for October 14:

The Senate picture has stabilized to a degree, but the prospects still look grim here for Team Blue.  Team Red has a strong lead in many seats that are currently democratic.  Because the democrats have improved in several races close to the borderline, it’s now going to be difficult for the Republicans to take over the Senate outright, but a tie at 50-50 is very feasible.  I’ve heard the words “Pacific Firewall” used to describe the democrats’ last line of defense, and it is true, as Patty Murray and Barbara Boxer’s seats in Washington and California, either one of which could be the mystical 10th seat to flip control, are both clearly leaning democratic right now.  The open seat in Connecticut now appears to be firmly out of reach.

First off, to the map:

Senate Math:

Current Senate – 59 Democrats, 41 Republicans

New Senate – 52 Democrats, 48 Republicans

Swing – Republicans +7

Pickups (listed in order of likelihood)

Dem pickups – none

Rep pickups – North Dakota, Arkansas, Indiana, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Colorado, West Virginia,

Ratings Commentary:

At this point, I think we can say that the democrats are unlikely to pick up any republican controlled seats.  The two seats that appeared to be the best opportunities for most of the year, Ohio and Missouri, have drifted away from the democrats.  New Hampshire is still somewhat competitive, as is Kentucky, and something tells me that North Carolina might not be totally out of the woods either because of Burr’s crappy favorables, but it’s a longshot that any seats go from red to blue right now.  That means it’s simply a matter of counting up the seats that will go from blue to red.  Here are those seats.

1.North Dakota – This one’s a lock.  

2.Arkansas – This seat is virtually gone as well.  Blanche had a poll showing her down just 9 about a week ago, but if your internals have you down almost double digits…

3.Indiana – I really thought this one would be more competitive by now, but Ellsworth has been a major disappointment and Coats is getting a pass because of the environment.

4.Wisconsin – This seat has leaped up to fourth on the list, as Feingold was caught totally napping, and Ron Johnson now appears likely to win this seat.  There’s still time left, but virtually everybody has an opinion of Feingold, so it’s not going to be easy to turn around.  His vote against Financial Regulation was a killer in my opinion.

5.Pennsylvania – This race is showing signs of tightening, as internal polling put Sestak ahead last week, and some other empirical evidence, such as the NRSC jumping in with an ad buy today, suggests that this race has tightened to under 5 points.  Sestak still has work to do here, but as a newcomer with a track record of closing strong, this one could be interesting.  

6.Colorado – This race is still close as well.  Buck leads in most polls, but Bennet had several put him ahead last week.  I still think Buck is going to win it barring any mistakes down the stretch, but Bennet has himself in decent position to survive.  

7.West Virginia – Joe Manchin would be winning big in just about any other cycle, but hatred of Obama and the national democrats is running so high in WV that John Raese is either barely ahead or tied in most polling.  This could go either way.  I could see a hidden democratic vote coming out in the end a la the PA-12 special last year, or Raese gaining the support of conservative democrats and putting it away.  Tough call here.  Right now, this one’s barely red because of the partisan lean of WV in national elections

——————————————————————————————————————————————–

8.Illinois – This begins the start of the blue column, and it’s a cliffhanger right now between Giannoulias and Kirk.  What we’re seeing in IL right now is a gradual “coming home” of Democrats to the democratic candidates, and if this continues, Giannoulias should win this one because of IL’s partisan lean.  It’s going to be a sloggy mess the rest of the way though.  

9.Nevada – This one is almost interchangeable with Illinois.  Polling shows a virtual toss-up here between Harry Reid and Sharron Angle.  It’s a battle of the unfavorable, and while undecideds supposedly break for the challenger, polling has had a republican bias in Nevada the last few cycles.  GOTV might decide this one, and because of that, my money is on Reid to survive.  

10.Washington – This seat is basically the seat of Rassmussen driving a narrative.  He’s really the only pollster that has ever had Rossi ahead of Murray, and now the polling average has Murray up by 6-7 points.  It’s very hard for me to see Murray losing to an already 2-time statewide loser that hasn’t put up better than 48% in any poll I’ve seen this cycle.  

11.California – California appears to be moving away from most republican candidates right now.  Fiorina would really need a strong finish and probably a gaffe from Boxer to come back and win.  

12.Connecticut – This is the last seat, theoretically, that Team Red has a shot at, but again, with McMahon’s favorables in the crapper, you’d need a gaffe or two from Blumenthal to put this race back into the competitive zone.  

2010 Senate Big Board (as of October 13)

Solid Dem – 6 seats

Hawaii (Inouye)

Maryland (Mikulski)

New York (Schumer)

New York (Gillibrand)

Oregon (Wyden)

Vermont (Leahy)

Likely Dem – 2 seats

Connecticut (Blumenthal)

Delaware (Open)

Lean Dem – 2 seats

California (Boxer)

Washington (Murray)

Toss Up – 5 seats

Nevada (Reid)

Colorado (Open)

Illinois (Open)

Pennsylvania (Open)

West Virginia (Manchin)

Lean Rep – 5 seats

Kentucky (Open)

Missouri (Open)

New Hampshire (Open)

North Carolina (Burr)

Wisconsin (Feingold)

Likely Rep – 7 seats

Alaska (Open)

Georgia (Isakson)

Arkansas (Lincoln)

Florida (Open)

Indiana (Open)

Louisiana (Vitter)

Ohio (Open)

Solid Rep – 10 seats

Arizona (McCain)

Alabama (Shelby)

Idaho (Crapo)

Iowa (Grassley)

Kansas (Open)

North Dakota (Open)

Oklahoma (Coburn)

South Carolina (Demint)

South Dakota (Thune)

Utah (Open)

On the gubernatorial side of things, fortunes actually appear to be improving for Team Blue, and in several key states as far as redistricting is concerned.  The overall picture appears to be that of the democrats taking over blue state governorships, republicans the red state governorships, and the GOP getting some of the swing state ones too.  

Current Governors – 26 democrats, 24 republicans

New Governors – 21 democrats, 29 republicans

Swing – Republicans +5

Pickups (listed in order of likelihood)

Dem Pickups – Rhode Island, Connecticut, Minnesota, Hawaii, California, Florida, Vermont

Rep Pickups – Wyoming, Kansas, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Iowa, Alaska, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Illinois, Ohio

The Map:

Most of the governor races are clear-cut, with very few real toss-ups on the board.  Probably the closest races overall are two races that lean slightly GOP, Illinois and Ohio.  In Illinois, Pat Quinn has rallied and is trailing Bill Brady by only a few points, in a state in which it’s hard to imagine many undecideds going for the extremely conservative Brady.  A victory for Quinn would give democrats control of the redistricting trifecta in Illinois, but because of how concentrated the democratic vote is there, I’m not sure how valuable that would be.  It might be possible to eliminate Biggert & Roskam though.  Ohio is another close race as Ted Strickland has closed to within a few points of John Kasich, and again here, it appears that most of the remaining undecideds are people that supported the democrats in 2006 and 2008.  This race is big as a victory for Strickland (or a hold of the Ohio House) would undo the republican gerrymander of the state’s congressional seats.  

One democratic-leaning seat that is somewhat in danger still is California, where Jerry Brown currently leads but is facing a bit of bad publicity at the moment.  A victory would give the democrats the trifecta here, although that could be nullified by the passage of a fair districts initiative also on the ballot.  Florida is another state in which the democrat is leading and a lot is on the line in terms of redistricting.  Florida has a hideous republican gerrymander, and an Alex Sink victory would do away with that.  There is a fair districts initiative on the ballot here too, but unlike in California, it looks likely to fail, making it imperative that Sink get the win over corrupt Rick Scott.

Pennsylvania and Texas are two other states in which big state gerrymandering looms large, but in both of these states it appears that the GOP is on their way to a victory.  Pennsylvania could still be saved with a retention of the Pennsylvania House, while the democrats would have to take over the Texas House to stave off a gerrymander, which is much less likely than defeating Rick Perry is.

2010 Governors Big Board (as of October 13)

Solid Dem – 4 seats

Arkansas

New Hampshire

New York

Rhode Island

Likely Dem – 2 seats

Colorado

Connecticut

Lean Dem – 5 seats

California

Hawaii

Maryland

Massachusetts

Minnesota

Toss Up – 7 seats

Florida

Illinois

Maine

New Mexico

Ohio

Oregon

Vermont

Lean Rep – 5 seats

Georgia

Pennsylvania

South Carolina

Texas

Wisconsin

Likely Rep – 5 seats

Alaska

Arizona

Iowa

Michigan

Nevada

Solid Rep – 9 seats

Alabama

Idaho

Kansas

Nebraska

Oklahoma

South Dakota

Tennessee

Utah

Wyoming

Welcome to another edition of StephenCLE’s House Ratings.  

With election day now just 20 days away, a couple of things are happening.  The generic ballot appeared to bounce for the GOP much of last week, but the last few surveys were even and D+2, knocking the lead down to 4%.  That’s about the same as the lead was last week.  But that lead seems a bit fabricated because of Gallup going to a likely voter model, sending their leads from GOP +2 or +3 to +12 or +13, which seems way out of whack with most other generic ballot polls.  In addition, I’m starting to notice a bit of a regional disparity from the generic ballot show up in polling in individual house districts, especially open seats.  It seems as though incumbents and open seats in the southeast, and to a lesser extent the midwest, the democrats are struggling.  In the northeast and west though, we’ve seen many favorable results, many of them within the past 2 days or so.  

There are a lot of changes, some rightward, some leftward, so many that I can’t talk about them all.  I’ll list them after the seat changes and then have some general commentary.  Bottom line, this is going to be a close, close fight to the finish for control of the House.

Old House – 256 Democrats, 179 Republicans

New House – 224 Democrats, 211 Republicans

National Swing – Republicans +32

Democratic Pickups (6) – DE-1, FL-25, IL-10, LA-2, HI-1, WA-8

Republican Pickups (38) – AR-1, AR-2, AZ-1, CA-11, CO-3, CO-4, FL-2, FL-8, FL-24, GA-8, IL-11, IL-14, IN-8, KS-3, LA-3, MD-1, MI-1, MS-1, NH-2, ND-1, NY-19, NY-29, OH-1, OH-15, OH-16, PA-3, PA-7, PA-8, PA-11, SC-5, TN-6, TN-8, TX-17, TX-23, VA-2, VA-5, WA-3, WI-7, WI-8

Pickup Changes from last month:

Democrat to Republican – WI-8, CA-11

Republican to Democrat – AZ-5, IL-14, MI-7, PA-10, WA-8, WV-1

Net Seats Changing By Region:

Northeast (New England & Mid-Atlantic) – R+7

Southeast (Border South & Deep South) – R+12

Midwest (Great Lakes & Plains) – R+9

West (Rocky Mountains & Pacific Coast) – R+4

The Map:

Ratings Changes for October 5-12:

1.Arizona-7 – Safe D to Likely D

2.Michigan-15 – Safe D to Likely D

3.Texas-27 – Safe D to Lean D

4.Arkansas-4 – Likely D to Lean D

5.Alabama-2 – Lean D to Toss Up/Tilt D

6.New York-1 – Toss Up/Tilt D to Lean D

7.Illinois-10 – Lean D to Likely D

8.Ohio-13 – Lean D to Likely D

9.Iowa-3 – Toss Up/Tilt D to Lean D

10.Tennessee-8 – Toss Up/Tilt R to Lean R

11.Arkansas-1 – Toss up/Tilt R to Lean R

12.Kansas-3 – Toss Up/Tilt R to Lean R

13.Pennsylvania-7 – Lean R to Toss Up/Tilt R

14.Michigan-1 – Lean R to Toss Up/Tilt R

15.Washington-3 – Lean R to Toss Up/Tilt R

16.Washington-8 – Lean R to Toss Up/Tilt D

17.West Virginia-1 – Toss Up/Tilt R to Toss Up/Tilt D

18.Wisconsin-7 – Toss Up/Tilt R to Lean R

19.Wisconsin-8 – Toss Up/Tilt D to Toss Up/Tilt

20.Pennsylvania-6 – Lean R to Likely R

21.Michigan-7 – Toss Up/Tilt R to Toss Up/Tilt D

22.Tennessee-4 – Lean D to Toss Up/Tilt D

23.Ohio-15 – Toss Up/Tilt R to Lean R

24.Pennsylvania-10 – Toss Up/Tilt R to Toss Up/Tilt D

25.California-11 – Toss Up/Tilt D to Toss Up/Tilt R

26.Arizona-5 – Toss Up/Tilt R to Toss Up/Tilt D

27.Illinois-14 – Toss Up/Tilt R to Toss Up/Tilt D

The net result of these changes is that the democrats gained 6 seats this week, the republicans gained two, putting the national score at Republicans+32.  The republican strength at the district level just doesn’t appear to be as strong as the generic ballot would suggest.  Virtually all of these moves were based on independent polling results.  Notable among these moves is WA-8, which has jumped into the blue column as Team Blue’s 6th pickup of the cycle.  I made this move based on not only polling, but a general sense that Dave Reichert’s standing within the district has been damaged somewhat and his campaign hasn’t been strong.  I’m thinking now that Delbene pulls in most remaining undecideds and wins this thing.  

Two other races I want to point out in particular are MI-7 and NM-2.  These races are virtual dead heats in the polls, but I keep them on the blue side of the ledger as the GOPers were both recent congressmen.  In a “throw em out” type of year, Teague and Schauer have been running ads starting with “Congressman Steve Pearce/Tim Walberg.  That’s potent strategy, and a big reason why I think those two will win.  Steve Driehaus is trying to do the same thing in OH-1, but he’s down too much for it to close the gap.  

This week, I’ve started to draw the battle lines between “good coattail states” and “bad coattail states”.  Wisconsin’s races were downgraded this week now that the prospect of a double-R win at the top appears likely.  Arkansas and Tennessee are looking really bad too, and several of those races were downgraded as well, although in the cases of TN-8 and AR-1, the republicans had some good polling results as well.  Iowa also looks notoriously bad, which is a big reason why IA-1 and IA-2 are still relatively competitive.  I figured IA-3 would be in the red column by now, but it appears that Brad Zaun is a screw-up, which helps Team Blue hold that one.  On the other hand, things seem to be improving a bit in Pennsylvania, which along with polling results allow PA-7 and PA-10 to move leftward in the ranks.  Maryland appears to be getting better with O’Malley pulling away on Ehrlich, which could help Frank Kratovil survive, though I’m not projecting that yet.  Illinois appears to be improving a bit as well with Giannoulias and Quinn inching upward, which appears to be the final nail in Bob Dold’s coffin in IL-10.  

Lastly, there are a few races that I am loathe to move based on polling alone.  AZ-7 and HI-1 are probably the best examples, as you probably get a lot of non-response from democratic voters in majority-minority districts like these.  Colleen Hanabusa in particular I think, if she’s within 5 points going into election day she’s going to win.  

I’ll close by saying that the battle for the House is extremely fluid right now.  2 weeks ago, I had only 29 seats turning over, which ballooned to 36 last week.  I figured it would stay static or even rise into the 40s just two days ago, then a whole bunch of positive polling came out for Team Blue in the last 48 hours, dropping the number to 32.  It’s going to be a roller-coaster ride the rest of the way, and if a game-changing event were to occur somehow, a big swing one way or the other is still possible.    

2010 House Big Board (as of October 13 update)

Solid Dem – 148 seats:

AL-7, AZ-4, CA-1, CA-5, CA-6, CA-7, CA-8, CA-9, CA-10, CA-11, CA-12, CA-13, CA-14, CA-15, CA-16, CA-17, CA-23, CA-27, CA-28, CA-29, CA-30, CA-31, CA-32, CA-33, CA-34, CA-35, CA-36, CA-37, CA-38, CA-39, CA-43, CA-51, CA-53, CO-1, CO-2, CT-1, CT-2, CT-3, FL-3, FL-11, FL-17, FL-19, FL-20, FL-23, GA-4, GA-5, GA-13, HI-2, IL-1, IL-2, IL-3, IL-4, IL-5, IL-7, IL-8, IL-9, IN-1, IN-7, KY-3, MD-2, MD-3, MD-4, MD-5, MD-7, MD-8, MA-1, MA-2, MA-3, MA-4, MA-6, MA-7, MA-8, MA-9, ME-1, MI-5, MI-12, MI-13, MI-14, MN-4, MN-5, MN-7, MS-2, MO-1, MO-3, MO-5, NV-1, NJ-1, NJ-6, NJ-8, NJ-9, NJ-10, NJ-13, NY-2, NY-4, NY-5, NY-6, NY-7, NY-8, NY-9, NY-10, NY-11, NY-12, NY-14, NY-15, NY-16, NY-17, NY-18, NY-21, NY-22, NY-27, NY-28, NC-1, NC-4, NC-12, NC-13, OH-9, OH-10, OH-11, OH-17, OK-2, OR-3, OR-4, PA-1, PA-2, PA-14, RI-1, RI-2, SC-6, TN-5, TN-9, TX-9, TX-15, TX-16, TX-18, TX-20, TX-25, TX-28, TX-29, TX-30, VT-1, VA-3, VA-8, WA-1, WA-6, WA-7, WV-3, WI-2, WI-4

Likely Dem – 32 seats:

Arizona-7 (Grijalva)

Arizona-8 (Giffords)

California-20 (Costa)

Connecticut-4 (Himes)

Delaware-1 (Open)

Georgia-12 (Barrow)

Illinois-10 (Seals)

Illinois-12 (Costello)

Indiana-2 (Donnelly)

Louisiana-2 (Cao)

Maine-2 (Michaud)

Massachusetts-5 (Tsongas)

Michigan-15 (Dingell)

Minnesota-1 (Walz)

Minnesota-8 (Oberstar)

North Carolina-2 (Etheridge)

North Carolina-11 (Shuler)

New Jersey-12 (Holt)

New Mexico-3 (Lujan)

New York-20 (Murphy)

New York-25 (Maffei)

Ohio-6 (Wilson)

Ohio-13 (Sutton)

Oregon-1 (Wu)

Pennsylvania-4 (Altmire)

Pennsylvania-13 (Schwartz)

Pennsylvania-17 (Holden)

Virginia-9 (Boucher)

Virginia-11 (Connelly)

Utah-2 (Matheson)

Washington-9 (Smith)

Wisconsin-3 (Kind)

Lean Dem – 28 seats:

Arkansas-4 (Ross)

California-18 (Cardoza)

California-47 (Sanchez)

Colorado-7 (Perlmutter)

Connecticut-5 (Murphy)

Georgia-2 (Bishop)

Hawaii-1 (Djou)

Idaho-1 (Minnick)

Iowa-1 (Braley)

Iowa-2 (Loebsack)

Iowa-3 (Boswell)

Illinois-17 (Hare)

Kentucky-6 (Chandler)

Massachusetts-10 (Open)

Michigan-9 (Peters)

Mississippi-4 (Taylor)

New Jersey-3 (Adler)

New Mexico-1 (Heinrich)

New York-1 (Bishop)

New York-13 (McMahon)

New York-23 (Owens)

North Carolina-7 (McIntyre)

North Carolina-8 (Kissell)

Ohio-18 (Space)

Oregon-5 (Schrader)

Pennsylvania-12 (Critz)

South Dakota-1 (Herseth)

Texas-27 (Ortiz)

Toss Up/Tilt Democratic – 17 seats:

Alabama-2 (Bright)

Arizona-5 (Mitchell)

Florida-22 (Klein)

Florida-25 (Open)

Illinois-14 (Foster)

Indiana-9 (Hill)

Michigan-7 (Schauer)

Missouri-4 (Skelton)

Nevada-3 (Titus)

New Hampshire-1 (Shea-Porter)

New Mexico-2 (Teague)

New York-24 (Arcuri)

Pennsylvania-10 (Carney)

Tennessee-4 (Davis)

Washington-2 (Larsen)

Washington-8 (Reichert)

West Virginia-1 (Open)

Toss Up/Tilt Republican – 22 seats:

Arizona-1 (Kirkpatrick)

California-3 (Lungren)

California-11 (McNerney)

Colorado-3 (Salazar)

Florida-2 (Boyd)

Florida-8 (Grayson)

Florida-12 (Open)

Georgia-8 (Marshall)

Maryland-1 (Kratovil)

Michigan-1 (Open)

Mississippi-1 (Childers)

New Hampshire-2 (Open)

New York-19 (Hall)

North Dakota-1 (Pomeroy)

Ohio-16 (Boccieri)

Pennsylvania-3 (Dahlkemper)

Pennsylvania-7 (Open)

Pennsylvania-8 (Murphy)

South Carolina-5 (Spratt)

Texas-23 (Rodriguez)

Washington-3 (Open)

Wisconsin-8 (Kagen)

Lean Rep – 20 seats:

Alabama-5 (Open)

Arizona-3 (Open)

Arkanas-1 (Open)

California-45 (Bono Mack)

Colorado-4 (Markey)

Florida-24 (Kosmas)

Illinois-11 (Halvorson)

Indiana-8 (Open)

Kansas-3 (Open)

Kansas-4 (Open)

Minnesota-6 (Bachmann)

Ohio-1 (Driehaus)

Ohio-15 (Kilroy)

Pennsylvania-11 (Kanjorski)

Pennsylvania-15 (Dent)

Virginia-2 (Nye)

Virginia-5 (Perriello)

Tennessee-8 (Open)

Texas-17 (Edwards)

Wisconsin-7 (Open)

Likely Rep – 13 seats:

Arkansas-2 (Open)

California-44 (Calvert)

Indiana-3 (Open)

Louisiana-3 (Open)

Michigan-3 (Open)

Missouri-8 (Emerson)

Nebraska-2 (Terry)

New York-29 (Open)

Ohio-12 (Tiberi)

Pennsylvania-6 (Gerlach)

Pennsylvania-16 (Pitts)

South Carolina-2 (Wilson)

Virginia-1 (Wittman)

Solid Rep – 155 seats:

AL-1, AL-3, AL-4, AL-6, AK-1, AZ-2, AZ-6, AR-3, CA-2, CA-4, CA-19, CA-21, CA-22, CA-24, CA-25, CA-26, CA-40, CA-41, CA-42, CA-46, CA-48, CA-49, CA-50, CA-52, CO-5, CO-6, FL-1, FL-4, FL-5, FL-6, FL-7, FL-9, FL-10, FL-13, FL-14, FL-15, FL-16, FL-18, FL-21, GA-1, GA-3, GA-7, GA-9, GA-10, GA-11, ID-2, IL-6, IL-13, IL-15, IL-16, IL-18, IL-19, IN-4, IN-5, IN-6, IA-4, IA-5, KS-1, KS-2, KY-1, KY-2, KY-4, KY-5, LA-1, LA-4, LA-5, LA-6, LA-7, MD-6, MI-2, MI-4, MI-6, MI-8, MI-10, MI-11, MN-2, MN-3, MS-3, MO-2, MO-6, MO-7, MO-9, MT-1, NE-1, NE-3, NV-2, NJ-2, NJ-5, NJ-4, NJ-7, NJ-11, NY-3, NY-26, NC-3, NC-5, NC-6, NC-9, NC-10, OH-2, OH-3, OH-4, OH-5, OH-7, OH-8, OH-14, OK-1, OK-3, OK-4, OK-5, OR-2, PA-5, PA-9, PA-18, PA-19, SC-1, SC-3, SC-4, TN-1, TN-2, TN-3, TN-6, TN-7, TX-1, TX-2, TX-3, TX-4, TX-5, TX-6, TX-7, TX-8, TX-10, TX-11, TX-12, TX-13, TX-14, TX-19, TX-21, TX-22, TX-24, TX-26, TX-31, TX-32, UT-1, UT-3, VA-4, VA-6, VA-7, VA-10, WA-4, WA-5, WV-2, WI-1, WI-5, WI-6, WY-1

Well, we’re only 4 weeks away from the 2010 congressional and gubernatorial elections, crunch time if you will.  I have new picks for the Senate and Governor races, those you’ll probably get tomorrow or Thursday.  

House of representatives:

The generic ballot appears to have stabilized, as a lot of favorable numbers for Team Red have come out in the last week.  Newsweek had the Dems up 5, Gallup the Reps up 13, so those two basically cancel.  The majority of polling has the Reps up about 3-5% or thereabout, ahead of the 2-3% last week, so several house races moved into the red column as a result, and many more moved into the red direction.  The house balance is now teetering more than it was a week ago, with the Republicans just barely away (which if you think about it, could be Team Blue’s worst nightmare, as Bobby Bright, Walt Minnick, Dan Boren, or any few conservadems could move to force Pelosi out of the speakership).  The full rating changes and big board are below.  Beginning this week, I have divided my toss up column into toss up/tilt republican and toss up/tilt democratic, a split that will remain until the election.  

Old House – 256 Democrats, 179 Republicans

New House – 220 Democrats, 215 Republicans

National Swing – Republicans +36

Democratic Pickups (5) – DE-1, FL-25, IL-10, LA-2, HI-1

Republican Pickups (40) – AR-1, AR-2, AZ-1, AZ-5, CO-3, CO-4, FL-2, FL-8, FL-24, IL-11, IL-14, IN-8, KS-3, LA-3, MD-1, MI-1, MI-7, MS-1, NH-2, ND-1, NY-19, NY-29, OH-1, OH-15, OH-16, PA-3, PA-7, PA-8, PA-10, PA-11, SC-5, TN-6, TN-8, TX-17, TX-23, VA-2, VA-5, WA-3, WV-1, WI-7

Pickup Changes from last month:

Democrat to Republican – AZ-1, CO-3, GA-8, OH-16, TX-23, WV-1, WI-7

Republican to Democrat –

Net Seats Changing By Region:

Northeast (New England & Mid-Atlantic) – R+8

Southeast (Border South & Deep South) – R+13

Midwest (Great Lakes & Plains) – R+10

West (Rocky Mountains & Pacific Coast) – R+4

The Map:

Ratings changes for period September 28-October 4:

1.Minnesota-8 – Solid Dem to Likely Dem – A poll came out a few days ago from POS that showed this race a 3-point affair.  While I’m sure this poll was somewhat slanted, I don’t doubt that this district is competitive in a year in which incumbency isn’t as great an advantage as normal.  Plus, the district is only D+3 and moving rightward.  Oberstar had better watch out.  

2.New York-20 – Solid Dem to Likely Dem – DCCC polling has this as a 13-point race, which moves it back onto the board a week after it became safe for Scott Murphy.  Still, I don’t feel as if he’s all that endangered.  

3.Maine-1 – Likely Dem to Solid Dem – Backed by a multitude of polling showing her in safe territory, Chellie Pingree appears to be out of the woods.

4.California-47 – Likely Dem to Lean Dem – Some poor campaigning and increased turnout projection in the Vietnamese bloc of this district has put Loretta Sanchez into an uncomfortable position.  I still think she’s ahead, but she can’t make any more gaffes.  

5.Georgia-2 – Likely Dem to Lean Dem – Same deal for Sanford Bishop, but instead of bad comments made, for him it’s a potential ethics issue that is hurting his candidacy.  I don’t know a lot about the scholarship deal, but this is the kind of year where any kind of stench can defeat a democrat, especially in a swing district like this one.  

6.North Carolina-7 – Likely Dem to Lean Dem – With Richard Burr pulling way ahead of Elaine Marshall, plus SUSA showing this race very close, I have no choice but to downgrade this one.  McIntyre had better be on his best game here the rest of the way because this one has the potential to move way rightward before election day.  

7.Arizona-1 – Lean Dem to Toss Up/Tilt Republican – This is a move I should have made last week, as polling came out showing Ann Kirkpatrick locked in a very tight contest with Paul Gosar.  The atmosphere in Arizona right now has stayed very republican, contrary to what I thought would happen after SB1070.  McCain and Brewer are going to romp here, so Kirkpatrick is in a tough spot despite weak opposition.

8.Iowa-1 – Likely Dem to Lean Dem – The atmosphere in Iowa is perhaps one of the single most toxic for democrats in the whole country, and independent republican groups just decided to drop a cool million against Bruce Braley as the head of AFF is running for state senate in Iowa here, or something like that.  The money puts this one into greater viability, but I’m moving this one more because of Grassley and Branstad’s potentially huge coattails.  

9.Iowa-2 – Likely Dem to Lean Dem – Same deal with Dave Loebsack, who is actually not leading by much if you believe internal polling from Marianne Miller-Meeks, his republican opponent.  This is the most democratic district in Iowa though.

10.Indiana-9 – Leans Dem to Toss Up/Tilt Democratic – This one is more a national move and a hunch than anything else.  The news from the ground in IN-9 concerns me a bit.  I figure polling here would show a very close race here anyhow.  Dan Coats is going to romp here in the Senate race, which will help Young out against Hill.  

11.Wisconsin-8 – Leans Dem to Toss Up/Tilt Democratic – The environment in Wisconsin didn’t look too bad until about 2 weeks ago, when the bottom totally fell out on Russ Feingold in the Senate race.  That’s hurt Kagen, who will have to deal with the upballot coattails of Ron Johnson and Scott Walker as well as his republican opposition.

12.Alabama-2 – Toss Up/Tilt Democratic to Leans Dem – Six months ago, I thought Bobby Bright was dead in the water in this R+16 district, but with him basically voting like a republican and him campaigning on his voting with Boehner 80% of the time, I guess that’s good enough for the voters there.  Oh well, I guess a 20% democrat is better than 0%.

13.Colorado-4 – Toss Up/Tilt Republican to Leans Rep – With the Senate race moving away from Team Blue, I’m more convinced that CO is just like NH, with it’s highly independent electorate destined to go republican this year and that the governor’s race is good just because it isn’t a 1v1.  For Markey, who’s stuck in largely republican territory, that means big trouble.  

14.Florida-24 – Toss Up/Tilt Republican to Leans Rep – Obama’s plan for NASA I think really screwed over Kosmas as this district is very much dependent on that particular agency.  It’s hard to imagine her getting around that in this kind of environment, one that seems to be moving rightward in Florida thanks to Marco Rubio’s growing lead in the Senate race.

15.New Hampshire-2 – Leans Rep to Toss Up/Tilt Republican – Kuster has been running fairly strongly since winning the democratic nomination, and the last few polls only have her a few points behind Bass.  This could end up being a close one in the end.  Ayotte will probably win here, but so will Lynch, so coattails will cancel each other.

16.Pennsylvania-6 – Likely Rep to Leans Rep – Something strange is going on in Pennsylvania, and I can’t put my finger on it.  The state looks bad as a whole, but some republican incumbents like Dent and Pitts are struggling, and with as strong a campaign as Minan Trivedi is running, it wouldn’t surprise me if this race has moved a bit on Gerlach.  I’d like to see some polling here for sure.  

17.Washington-8 – Likely Rep to Leans Rep – Susan Delbene has closed the gap on Dave Reichert in polling, prompting this rating change.  The district leans democratic as a whole, so even in a year like this, Reichert has to be on his toes.  

18.Colorado-3 – Toss Up/Tilt D to Toss Up/Tilt R – This is a cliffhanger race right now, but I think with Colorado moving somewhat rightward in the last two weeks, that Scott Tipton is now barely favored over John Salazar.  This is definitely one to watch.

19.Ohio-16 – Toss Up/Tilt D to Toss Up/Tilt R – Here’s another district where the race has been hard-fought and dirty between two relatively strong-armed candidates in Boccieri and Renacci.  With the Senate race falling out for Team Blue I’m putting Renacci in the lead, but again, this is going to be a fight all the way to the end.  

20.Texas-23 – Toss Up/Tilt D to Toss Up/Tilt R – The republicans did a good job in the primary here, nominating a Hispanic that seems to have his stuff in order.  Canseco has been running relatively strong in polling as well, and with the governor’s race looking more of a longshot, I’m moving this one into the red column as well.  

21.West Virginia-1 – Toss Up/Tilt D to Toss Up/Tilt R – It seems as though I move this seat every stinking update.  This move is prompted by Joe Manchin’s implosion in the Senate race.  WV is going to probably be a solid red state before too long the way things are going  there.

22.Wisconsin-7 – Toss Up/Tilt D to Toss Up/Tilt R – This was probably the toughest move of all.  I think Duffy is probably ahead right now, but in this democratic district come election day, I just don’t see undecideds going for the reality tv linchpin over the extremely competent state senator.  I do expect Lassa to close strong and win here, but to the red column for now.  

23.Georgia-8 – Toss Up/Tilt D to Toss Up Tilt R – This is more of a national move than anything else, but this is a district that is increasingly likely to flip as it appears that the democratic brand in Georgia is fairly toxic outside of Roy Barnes, who would be beating Nathan Deal for sure if it were not for the pesky “D” by his name.  

2010 House Big Board (as of October 5 update)

Solid Dem – 151 seats:

AL-7, AZ-4, AZ-7, CA-1, CA-5, CA-6, CA-7, CA-8, CA-9, CA-10, CA-11, CA-12, CA-13, CA-14, CA-15, CA-16, CA-17, CA-23, CA-27, CA-28, CA-29, CA-30, CA-31, CA-32, CA-33, CA-34, CA-35, CA-36, CA-37, CA-38, CA-39, CA-43, CA-51, CA-53, CO-1, CO-2, CT-1, CT-2, CT-3, FL-3, FL-11, FL-17, FL-19, FL-20, FL-23, GA-4, GA-5, GA-13, HI-2, IL-1, IL-2, IL-3, IL-4, IL-5, IL-7, IL-8, IL-9, IN-1, IN-7, KY-3, MD-2, MD-3, MD-4, MD-5, MD-7, MD-8, MA-1, MA-2, MA-3, MA-4, MA-6, MA-7, MA-8, MA-9, ME-1, MI-5, MI-12, MI-13, MI-14, MI-15, MN-4, MN-5, MN-7, MS-2, MO-1, MO-3, MO-5, NV-1, NJ-1, NJ-6, NJ-8, NJ-9, NJ-10, NJ-13, NY-2, NY-4, NY-5, NY-6, NY-7, NY-8, NY-9, NY-10, NY-11, NY-12, NY-14, NY-15, NY-16, NY-17, NY-18, NY-21, NY-22, NY-27, NY-28, NC-1, NC-4, NC-12, NC-13, OH-9, OH-10, OH-11, OH-17, OK-2, OR-3, OR-4, PA-1, PA-2, PA-14, RI-1, RI-2, SC-6, TN-5, TN-9, TX-9, TX-15, TX-16, TX-18, TX-20, TX-25, TX-27, TX-28, TX-29, TX-30, VT-1, VA-3, VA-8, WA-1, WA-6, WA-7, WV-3, WI-2, WI-4

Likely Dem – 30 seats:

Arkansas-4 (Ross)

Arizona-8 (Giffords)

California-20 (Costa)

Connecticut-4 (Himes)

Delaware-1 (Open)

Georgia-12 (Barrow)

Illinois-12 (Costello)

Indiana-2 (Donnelly)

Louisiana-2 (Cao)

Maine-2 (Michaud)

Massachusetts-5 (Tsongas)

Minnesota-1 (Walz)

Minnesota-8 (Oberstar)

North Carolina-2 (Etheridge)

North Carolina-11 (Shuler)

New Jersey-12 (Holt)

New Mexico-3 (Lujan)

New York-20 (Murphy)

New York-25 (Maffei)

Ohio-6 (Wilson)

Oregon-1 (Wu)

Pennsylvania-4 (Altmire)

Pennsylvania-13 (Schwartz)

Pennsylvania-17 (Holden)

Virginia-9 (Boucher)

Virginia-11 (Connelly)

Utah-2 (Matheson)

Washington-9 (Smith)

Wisconsin-3 (Kind)

Lean Dem – 28 seats:

Alabama-2 (Bright)

California-18 (Cardoza)

California-47 (Sanchez)

Colorado-7 (Perlmutter)

Connecticut-5 (Murphy)

Georgia-2 (Bishop)

Hawaii-1 (Djou)

Idaho-1 (Minnick)

Iowa-1 (Braley)

Iowa-2 (Loebsack)

Illinois-10 (Open)

Illinois-17 (Hare)

Kentucky-6 (Chandler)

Massachusetts-10 (Open)

Michigan-9 (Peters)

Mississippi-4 (Taylor)

New Jersey-3 (Adler)

New Mexico-1 (Heinrich)

New York-13 (McMahon)

New York-23 (Owens)

North Carolina-7 (McIntyre)

North Carolina-8 (Kissell)

Ohio-13 (Sutton)

Ohio-18 (Space)

Oregon-5 (Schrader)

Pennsylvania-12 (Critz)

South Dakota-1 (Herseth)

Tennessee-4 (Davis)

Toss Up/Tilt Democratic – 13 seats:

California-11 (McNerney)

Florida-22 (Klein)

Florida-25 (Open)

Indiana-9 (Hill)

Iowa-3 (Boswell)

Missouri-4 (Skelton)

Nevada-3 (Titus)

New Hampshire-1 (Shea-Porter)

New Mexico-2 (Teague)

New York-1 (Bishop)

New York-24 (Arcuri)

Washington-2 (Larsen)

Wisconsin-8 (Kagen)

Toss Up/Tilt Republican – 26 seats:

Arizona-1 (Kirkpatrick)

Arkansas-1 (Open)

Arizona-5 (Mitchell)

California-3 (Lungren)

Colorado-3 (Salazar)

Florida-2 (Boyd)

Florida-8 (Grayson)

Florida-12 (Open)

Georgia-8 (Marshall)

Illinois-14 (Foster)

Kansas-3 (Open)

Maryland-1 (Kratovil)

Michigan-7 (Schauer)

Mississippi-1 (Childers)

New Hampshire-2 (Open)

New York-19 (Hall)

North Dakota-1 (Pomeroy)

Ohio-15 (Kilroy)

Ohio-16 (Boccieri)

Pennsylvania-3 (Dahlkemper)

Pennsylvania-8 (Murphy)

Pennsylvania-10 (Carney)

South Carolina-5 (Spratt)

Tennessee-8 (Open)

Texas-23 (Rodriguez)

West Virginia-1 (Open)

Wisconsin-7 (Open)

Lean Rep – 20 seats:

Alabama-5 (Open)

Arizona-3 (Open)

California-45 (Bono Mack)

Colorado-4 (Markey)

Florida-24 (Kosmas)

Illinois-11 (Halvorson)

Indiana-8 (Open)

Kansas-4 (Open)

Michigan-1 (Open)

Minnesota-6 (Bachmann)

Ohio-1 (Driehaus)

Pennsylvania-6 (Gerlach)

Pennsylvania-7 (Open)

Pennsylvania-11 (Kanjorski)

Pennsylvania-15 (Dent)

Virginia-2 (Nye)

Virginia-5 (Perriello)

Texas-17 (Edwards)

Washington-3 (Open)

Washington-8 (Reichert)

Likely Rep – 12 seats:

Arkansas-2 (Open)

California-44 (Calvert)

Indiana-3 (Open)

Louisiana-3 (Open)

Michigan-3 (Open)

Missouri-8 (Emerson)

Nebraska-2 (Terry)

New York-29 (Open)

Ohio-12 (Tiberi)

Pennsylvania-16 (Pitts)

South Carolina-2 (Wilson)

Virginia-1 (Wittman)

Solid Rep – 155 seats:

AL-1, AL-3, AL-4, AL-6, AK-1, AZ-2, AZ-6, AR-3, CA-2, CA-4, CA-19, CA-21, CA-22, CA-24, CA-25, CA-26, CA-40, CA-41, CA-42, CA-46, CA-48, CA-49, CA-50, CA-52, CO-5, CO-6, FL-1, FL-4, FL-5, FL-6, FL-7, FL-9, FL-10, FL-13, FL-14, FL-15, FL-16, FL-18, FL-21, GA-1, GA-3, GA-7, GA-9, GA-10, GA-11, ID-2, IL-6, IL-13, IL-15, IL-16, IL-18, IL-19, IN-4, IN-5, IN-6, IA-4, IA-5, KS-1, KS-2, KY-1, KY-2, KY-4, KY-5, LA-1, LA-4, LA-5, LA-6, LA-7, MD-6, MI-2, MI-4, MI-6, MI-8, MI-10, MI-11, MN-2, MN-3, MS-3, MO-2, MO-6, MO-7, MO-9, MT-1, NE-1, NE-3, NV-2, NJ-2, NJ-5, NJ-4, NJ-7, NJ-11, NY-3, NY-26, NC-3, NC-5, NC-6, NC-9, NC-10, OH-2, OH-3, OH-4, OH-5, OH-7, OH-8, OH-14, OK-1, OK-3, OK-4, OK-5, OR-2, PA-5, PA-9, PA-18, PA-19, SC-1, SC-3, SC-4, TN-1, TN-2, TN-3, TN-6, TN-7, TX-1, TX-2, TX-3, TX-4, TX-5, TX-6, TX-7, TX-8, TX-10, TX-11, TX-12, TX-13, TX-14, TX-19, TX-21, TX-22, TX-24, TX-26, TX-31, TX-32, UT-1, UT-3, VA-4, VA-6, VA-7, VA-10, WA-4, WA-5, WV-2, WI-1, WI-5, WI-6, WY-1