NC State Senate – Dem Leadership Turnover

The North Carolina State Senate will see considerable turnover in the Democratic Leadership by the end of 2010. Democrats currently hold a 30-20 majority, and have controlled the Senate Chamber since the 1870s. All members face re-election every 2 years.

3 Democrats have announced they will not run in 2010, and Majority Leader Tony Rand resigned today to accept a new position in state government. The retirements include 3 (now 4) of the 5 most senior Democrats in the Senate.

1/17 Update – Another retirement announced – Sen Charlie Albertson will not run in 2010.

Majority Leader Tony Rand has resigned after 27 years to accept Governor Bev Perdue’s appointment as Chair of the State Parole Commission. Gov Perdue will appoint Rand’s replacement.…

Sen David Hoyle, co-chair of the Senate Finance Committee, has announced he will not run for re-election in 2010 after serving for 18 years in the State Senate.…

Sen Julia Boseman has announced she won’t seek a 4th term in 2010. Boseman is NC’s only openly gay or lesbian legislator.…

Sen RC Soles, Chairman of the Commerce Committee and NC’s longest serving State Senator, has announced he will not run for re-election in 2010. Soles was first elected to the Legislature in 1968, serving 40 years. Soles shot and wounded an intruder in his home earlier this year, and may face charges.…

The seats held by Hoyle, Boseman, and Soles were all considered competitive in 2008.…

1/17 update: Sen Charlie Albertson announced Friday he will not run for re-election in 2010. His district #10 is a D +3 district. Albertson has served in the legislature for 20 years. He is the 3rd most senior Democrat in the Senate.…

MN-Sen – PPP: Franken leads Coleman 45-40-14

A new PPP poll just released shows Al Franken leading Norm Coleman 45-40, with 14 giong to Barkley.  

Also, Obama leads Minnesota by a big 57-41 margin. Obama may just drag Al Franken across the finish line first.


The race for US Senate in Minnesota is close, but Al Franken has a definite lead at this juncture in the contest.

Only 76% of Obama voters are planning to vote for Franken, quite a difference from the 85% of McCain supporters going for Coleman. But with Obama headed for a dominant victory in the state, it looks like as of today his coattails would be enough to bring Franken across the finish line.


Also just released is a set of PPP polls for West Virginia, where McCain leads Obama 55-42.


NC-Gov, Perdue 47, McCrory 44, Munger 5


Perdue 47%

McCrory 44%

Munger 5%

undecided 4%

Bev Perdue leads the latest PPP poll for the 4th straight week.

The 5% Munger voters are also breaking for Obama 54-23.

In the other statewide races included in this poll:

Sec of State

Marshall (D-Inc) 48

Sawyer (R) 39

13% undecided


Wood (D) 44

Merritt (R-Inc) 41

15% undecided

Sec of Agriculture

Aisley (D) 41

Troxler (R-Inc) 46

13% undecided

NC-Sen – Hagan 49, Dole 42


Kay Hagan has expanded her lead over Liddy Dole to 7 points, 49-42.  Those rocking chair guys have been brutal to Liddy.

And then there’s that other race: Obama 51, McCain 44.

Meanwhile, thru the first 4 days of early voting in NC, the record-setting turnout has been 62% DEM, 21% GOP, 17% Ind. This compares to the registration that is 46% DEM, 32% GOP, 22% Ind.  This cannot be anything but good news for Democrats up and down the ballot.

NC State Senate – Could Dems Lose Control?…

Democrats have a 31-19 majority in the North Carolina State Senate. Democrats have controlled the Senate for an amazing 130 consecuative years.  Could this be the year that changes?

John Davis, the former president of NCFREE, a non-partisan political research business association, has been tracking legislative races for 23 years. This year, he said, eight Democratic seats are vulnerable, which could shift the balance of power in the chamber.

“If you look at all the competitive districts, most are Republican-leaning held by Democrats,” Davis said. “There’s actually the possibility that Republicans could take over the Senate.”

In addition to the Republican-leaning districts in western North Carolina, some of the incumbents face legal and public relations problems, Davis said.

Not surprisingly, both parties are confident of winning control.

Considering the heavy voter registration in NC this year, which has resulted in a net increase of 200,000 more Democrats than Republicans, I don’t see the Democrats losing 7 seats – and control.  Add in the expected heavy turnout of Democratic voters, losing this many Senate seats would be shocking.


Interesting PPP Poll of NC Congressional Races

Buried deep in the crosstabs of last week’s PPP poll of the Hagan-Dole seate race, there is this little gem:

One thing the Democracy Corps poll asked was who people would support for Congress in each district of the state. The sample sizes on these are pretty small (51-86 respondents per CD) so should be taken with a bit of a grain of salt but they still tell an interesting story:

– Folks who have leads over 15 points include G.K. Butterfield, Bob Etheridge, Walter Jones, David Price, Howard Coble, Mike McIntyre, Sue Myrick, and Heath Shuler. Shuler has a remarkable 66-27 advantage. It’s amazing how quickly a district can become ‘safe,’ but that’s sort of the choice the Republicans made by nominating Carl Mumpower. Unless I’m missing something it doesn’t look like the 12th and 13th district crosstabs are on the report but I am pretty comfortable saying that Mel Watt and Brad Miller will be reelected this fall.

The closest Congressional district in the state is the 5th, where Virginia Foxx leads Roy Carter 48-46. I really hope the DCCC and other folks take the pick up opportunity in this district seriously. There are races on the Red to Blue list that based on the data I’ve seen are less winnable than this one. Carter is a uniquely appealing candidate and has the opportunity to pull off the same kind of shocker Larry Kissell almost did in 2006 if he gets the resources he needs to run the strongest campaign possible.

– In the 8th District they show Robin Hayes up 50-42 on Larry Kissell- I think it’s a little closer than that right now but that’s simply a sample size issue. Same thing in the 10th District where Daniel Johnson trails Patrick McHenry 54-39 based on 65 interviews.

Admittedly, the sample sizes are small since these are just subsets of the statewide polls. But if NC-5 is 48-46, what a golden opportunity we have there.