Author: conspiracy

McAuliffe 18%

Moran 18%

Deeds 11%

http://www.publicpolicypolling…

Huge number of undecideds but check out the approvals.

“Moran has the best favorability marks from likely primary voters, with 34% having a positive opinion of him and just 10% viewing him negatively. McAuliffe is the most well known of the candidates, which cuts both ways. He has the second highest favorable rating, 30%, but also has easily the highest unfavorable rating at 23%. Deeds is the least well known of the trio with 67% of respondents having no opinion of him one way or the other.”

Looks like anything could happen here but I guess McAuliffe has the edge with his financial advantage. Does anybody actually think he could win in November? This is a genuine question and not rhetorical.

http://www.publicpolicypolling…

I expected Kasich to competitive but to be within single digits is somewhat of a surprise. Strickland is in positive territory with his approvals (+13) but this looks like being a bit of a battle if Kasich pulls the trigger.

“One good piece of news for Strickland is that he gets more support from white voters than Kasich in a hypothetical match up. Any Democrat in Ohio who wins the white vote will easily win statewide. The race is only as close as it is at this point because Strickland gets just 52% of the black vote. Polling far away from an election tends to underestimate African American support for Democratic candidates, and it seems likely Strickland will end up earning closer to 80-90% of the black vote when the election actually comes.”

Let us hope so.

http://online.wsj.com/article/…

Now he has a point that 2010 is likely to be better for Republicans but even if they get the average 23 seat net gain in the House that barely gets them back above 200 seats, if that.

Also, on reapportionment. Same old conservative spin that Michael Barone parrots in the latest Almanac – red states will gain House seats thus more electoral votes after the 2010 census. Problem for the GOP is that Florida is now a blue state and Arizona should be ripe for going to Obama in 2012 without McCain on the ticket. I also believe North Carolina is due to pick up at least one more seat which supports the idea that as states increase in population they become more open to Democrats due to urban growth.

The Politico reports that Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich is expected to announce today that he is to run this fall against Ted Stevens for his Alaska Senate seat.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/…

The popular Begich should be able to make this a top-tier race as he already holds a lead against the corrupt Stevens in polling, 47-41.

A competitive race in Alaska? Who would have thought that? But it sure does look that way. It probably ranks just below the top 5 (VA, NM, NH, CO, MN) in order of seats most likely to change parties, maybe even ahead of Oregon and Maine.

With an outside chance in MS and perhaps even TX the impossible dream of 60 seats may actually be in reach.