Author: doug_tuttle

a new Rasmussen Report http://www.rasmussen…

shows that Saxby Chambliss is held to 49% against investigative reporter Dale Caldwell who takes in 33%.  I’m not going to lie, these aren’t overly stellar numbers, Chambliss is obvious in very good shape, but it is promising.  It’s not a complete shut-out, and with either a better candidate (former Senator Cleland.  i know, but a man can hope can’t he) or if Caldwell runs a better campaign than expected we might be able to turn this into a sleeper.  At least force the NRSC to spend some money.

hidely-ho there neighboreenos, I’m trying to collect instances of infidelity and super-fidelity (is that a real term?) from both parties.  By infidelity, I mean republican and democratic instances of cheating, prostitution, gay affairs, etc. etc.  for “super-fidelity” I mean instances where the couples stays together despite overwhelming odds, or stays together in the face of tragedy.  These should have been within the last ten years, unless that person is an important figure on the scene now.

for the repubs infidelity there is of course:

“Larry-boy” Craig soliciting gay sex

Diaper man Vitter, prostitution

newt Gingrich leaving his wife when she had cancer

Rudy Giuliani three wives

Fred Thompson trophy wife

Mark Foley well, I don’t need to get into that HERE do I?

While I’m sure there’s super-fidelity with the repubs, I don’t know off hand.

democrats infidelity

John Kerry 1 divorce

Bill Clinton Monica-gate

Russ Feingold 2 divorces (I think, it might be 1)

superfidelity

Clinton’s staying together (though if for love, or political standing we may never know)

John Edwards loving Elizabeth and standing by her through cancer

That’s all I can think of, I’m trying to get a handy chart for when the republicans claim to be the party of family values.  Thank you in advance for contributions

Each 2006 pickup had a distinctive reason, almost like a category in an award show; so let’s rate them that way.  The categories would be loss because of changing electorate (DeWine-OH), loss because of unpopular war despite personal popularity (Chafee-RI), Macaca moment (Allen-VA) corruption (Burns-MT), just plain unpopular (Santorum-PA), and battleground (McCaskill-MO).  Who will lose for these reasons this time around, and why?  Here are my ratings.

Unpopular: Sunnunu.  Especially if Shaheen jumps in, but either way the guy keeps running to the right in a suddenly left state.  He’s antagonistic, abrasive, and nothing like the traditional new England republican he needs to be if he wanted to have an ounce of a chance of winning.

Corruption: Ted Stevens.  We finally have a chance to take the nut down, between the FBI raids, and corruption charges he’s going to be this cycle’s Burns.  An incumbent who would have won easily without the corruption.  Burns may have faced a more difficult than normal challenge even without the Abramoff connections, he would have still had a safe win, maybe 55-45.  With Abramoff however, he’s out hunting buck, or screaming obscenities at his family, or whatever crazy old senators do when they lose.

Personal popularity:  this is a toughie.  Collins would seem like the obvious choice, seeing as how she’s quite popular (not Snowe popular) in a strong blue state.  Still, she seems more like a Macaca moment senator to me.  Gordon smith is moderately popular, but not chafee, nor is Oregon Rhode Island.  I’d have to stick with collins, but that’s just me. 

Changing electorate: Ohio was (is) in major political upheaval, as is Colorado.  As it’s an open seat, it becomes even more likely that the state that is becoming rapidly more blue will give us a win similar to brown’s over dewine.

Macaca: these are hard to gauge, because they’re unpredictable.  If anyone had asked last year who it would be, everyone would have said burns because of his history of making stupid remarks.  For the moment I’ll say Coleman, but it might go to Mitch down in Kentucky, or collins may win both categories. 

battleground: since Ohio and Missouri don’t have senate seats up this cycle, I’m going to say Oregon.  While it’s not a bellwether, it’s been a swing state for most of the last elections.

These are just my opinions, please tell me what you think.

In the all republican election to fill Charlie norwoods seat, Paul Broun has an oh so slim lead over whitehead, Norwood’s heir apparent.  Broun managed to win 90% of Clark county, the fighting tenth’s democratic stronghold.  In the first special election held on June 19th (oh discordia!) Broun took a good chunk or Clarke away from democrat Marlow.  While Broun was probably able to 90% because of support from democrats as the lesser of two evils and support from moderate republicans, it shows there might be a window.  It might be tough if he gets a base in Clarke, but if we can get a stronger candidate in ’08, and can make the race a clear republican versus democrat thing, we can take back Clarke county.  If Broun turns out to be too liberal for the tenth, then there might be a republican primary.  In such an event, with Broun either defeated by a more conservative republican, or forced to the right, we could win.

When a person is chosen as a veep nominee can the funds s/he raised be used in the presidential contest?  I’m wondering about this because it might be why Susan Collins (wRong-ME) is still supporting Iraq.  She’s be immensely supportive of the Mccain and the war, and her continued support, coupled with the her “moderate” status, and location would make her a strategic choice for veep.  This is of course assuming Mccain can bring his campaign out of the dumps.  It’s also an interesting parallel between the republicans now, and the democrats of 1968.  McCain/collins would be their version of Humphrey/Muskie. 

Last night rep Tom Davis, republican of Virginia appeared on Stephen Colbert’s “better know a district.”  This is important for two reasons.  First of all it increases Davis’ visibility amongst younger voters, and as a possible nominee for the 2008 senate seat it will certainly help.  Another thing is that he was the first republican congressman to appear on the show in a LONG time.  Usually they’re too afraid of looking silly to go on, not that he didn’t look silly.  Stephen insinuated Davis was having an affair with DC “rep” Eleanor Holmes Norton because Davis was in favor of Norton’s bill to give DC a seat in the House.  The question is whether this is Davis’ way of getting ready to run for John Warner’s seat should he retire, a sign he won’t run for the seat, or Davis just wanted to have some fun.

A Rasmussen report has shown that NYC mayor Mike Bloomberg, widely thought to be a potential third party candidate, would be a GOP spoiler in the 2008 election.  Their poll shows that when Bloomberg is thrown into the mix, Clinton (only dem. they’ve polled so far) only loses one percentage point, opposed to Giuliani and McCain who drop to 37%.  With a year and a half to go, Bloomberg already has 9% support, which could easily be built on.  This comes with another Rasmussen report that shows 19% of the population would be “somewhat likely” to go third party.  Should Bloomberg jump in and spend ½ billion as expected he could get enough to secure 2008.  hell he might even win, or at the very least get a few electoral votes.  Either way, as a scholar of both presidential elections and a third party advocate, I’d LOVE to see this.

Under a rule Crist has made, all but the most violent felons, nearly one million in total will once again have the right to vote in florida.  This will have several ramifications on the state, some profound, some superficial. 
  Let’s start with the profound.  First and most importantly of all, this will bring the country one step closer to a world free of jim crow.  While most of the Jim Crow laws are no longer in effect, this rule, which had been written into the state’s constitution for decades, was one of them.  While all felons are obviously not African americans, nationwide there is a clear slant, in many cases due to unfairness in the criminal justice system. 
Another important aspect is that it will be a lot harder for republican operatives to disenfranchise voters, that coupled with a voting machines that have a voting trail (also Crist’s idea) could swing many key florida races to us, but more importantly will restore voting rights and democracy to florida. 
  There’s also the factor of how this will affect dems.  Felons do typically vote towards dems more and while African americans (which voted 84% for Kerry) do not make up the majority of felons, it will help.  Whether this turns the state, or even a single race is yet to be seen, but it could certainly help.  More importantly however, I say we declare Crist-for the time being at least- a democrats republican.  The man restored voting rights people!