Joe Garcia’s campaign sent me a “memo” of the results of a recent survey. Short story is without prompting, Garcia was up by 4; when voters were told positive things about each candidate, Garcia ws up by 7; when voters were told negative things about each candidate, Garcia was up by 13. More details below.
First, the survey was taken by The Benenson Strategy Group. 400 interviews of likely general election voters from August 26-29. M/E is ±4.90%.
If the November election for Congress were held today and the candidates were __, for whom would you vote?
Garcia leads 40-36.
After hearing positive messages about both candidates (I am always a little suspicious of this)
Garcia leads 48-41
After hearing negative messages about both candidates (I am always a little suspicious of this)
Garcia leads 43-30.
This is a republican-held seat and one of the few we have a good chance to take. It is also good news as it is a PVI of R+5. Cook rates it as “lean-R.” First Read rates it #46 in liklihood of a take-over (from R to D). Rothenberg rates it “lean-R.”
Something else. Although all of the commentators keep seeing complete disaster for the Dems (Sabato was real negative today), surveys like this (and a recent one of Shea-Porter leading in NH) make things look less dismal to me. I still have hope.