CA-AG: Looking Bad for Kamala Harris

Update: A few more counties have added results, Harris’s deficit has grown to 36,800 votes. This was a result of 85,000 new votes in Orange, 17k in Riverside, and 35.5k in San Francisco. I’ve subtracted these from the “unprocessed” totals, and the new projection says Harris stands to gain 1,500 in the remaining ballots uncounted.

However, there is a time gap between the ballots outstanding estimate and the number of votes counting – more likely than not, we’re overestimating the number of Orange, San Diego, and Riverside ballots outstanding – which of course means that Harris has more upside potential in the remaining ballots.  We’ll keep a close eye on the situation and will update accordingly as more data are released tomorrow.


As of last update, San Francisco DA Kamala Harris (D) is trailing Los Angeles County DA Steve Cooley by 22,817 votes out of 7,659,341 counted so far.

According to the Unprocessed Ballot Report (PDF), there are still 2,342,664 ballots uncounted. Sidenote: Don’t you love Debra Bowen and what she’s done with the SoS’s office? Susan Bysiewicz, take notes!

What does this mean?

Well, we can analyze the relative composition of the remaining outstanding ballots, and the news isn’t the best for Harris.

Harris’ statewide weighted average performance for the unprocessed ballots (weighted by the number of votes outstanding) is 45.55% to Cooley’s 45.95%. This is actually a notch down from the 45.64% Harris has received in all counties so far.

This is mostly due to a large number of outstanding ballots in San Diego and Orange Counties. While LA, SF, Alameda, Santa Clara, and Contra Costa will help to offset this, they will be offset by Riverside, San Bern, and also possibly death-by-thousand-cuts in the various counties in the Central Valley.

From this – provided we assume that unprocessed ballots break down the same as the counties they are from thus far – we can estimate that Harris is on pace to fall another 9,486 votes behind Cooley.

For Harris to overcome her 23k deficit, we can also say that Harris will need to do 0.69% better among the uncounted ballots than she has thus far.

Here are the top 12 counties that will pad Cooley’s margin:






























































































































































County Total Harris Cooley Unproc Harris Cooley Margin
Orange 683,073 208,780 416,466 233,196 71,276 142,178 -70,902
San Diego 639,695 246,542 335,071 240,000 92,497 125,712 -33,214
Kern 116,811 31,861 73,293 65,200 17,784 40,910 -23,126
Fresno 127,070 45,013 72,289 79,748 28,250 45,368 -17,118
San Bernardino 341,011 127,276 179,477 99,000 36,950 52,105 -15,155
Riverside 427,254 155,953 236,923 78,100 28,507 43,308 -14,801
Placer 107,703 31,998 66,112 28,056 8,335 17,222 -8,886
Stanislaus 110,462 41,587 59,205 40,430 15,221 21,670 -6,448
Ventura 209,561 81,543 112,402 40,279 15,673 21,604 -5,931
Shasta 47,590 12,778 29,737 16,200 4,350 10,123 -5,773
Tulare 61,150 18,200 38,109 17,204 5,120 10,722 -5,601
El Dorado 51,608 15,335 31,061 17,400 5,170 10,472 -5,302

And where we estimate Harris to get an advantage:






























































































































































County Total Harris Cooley Unproc Harris Cooley Margin
Los Angeles 1,883,468 1,004,737 743,482 411,960 219,760 162,617 57,143
Alameda 315,268 207,519 83,738 122,000 80,304 32,404 47,900
San Francisco 176,573 125,063 35,847 67,754 47,989 13,755 34,234
Santa Clara 371,287 203,177 136,071 108,000 59,100 39,580 19,520
Contra Costa 236,809 125,361 93,978 107,000 56,643 42,463 14,180
Marin 83,391 51,689 25,850 38,050 23,585 11,795 11,790
San Mateo 168,055 95,316 59,945 48,102 27,282 17,158 10,124
Sonoma 138,383 79,052 45,321 40,000 22,850 13,100 9,750
Santa Cruz 66,757 41,428 18,356 28,080 17,426 7,721 9,705
Monterey 60,308 32,664 22,522 40,256 21,803 15,034 6,770
Mendocino 19,097 10,321 6,159 12,358 6,679 3,986 2,693
Solano 93,164 47,383 38,272 25,522 12,980 10,485 2,496

The 34 counties we haven’t listed are expected to lose Harris another 23,531 votes, margin-wise.

Again, this analysis is fraught with assumptions, but gives us a useful picture of where things stand. We’re not taking into account any macro influences – such as the possibility of provisional ballots skewing Democratic – here, and given the sheer number of outstanding ballots – 23% of the total cast – much remains uncertain.  

Liveblog Thread #6

1:57: In other news, it looks like the GOP flipped at least 15 state legislative chambers.

1:54: TX-23 called for Quico Canseco (R).

1:50: NY-01 called for Tim Bishop.

1:49: Good news: NM-01 called for Dem Martin Heinrich. Also, it looks like the outstanding precincts in MI-09 are Dem-friendly.

1:48: The AP has called HI-Gov for Neil Abercrombie, in what looks like a big, 20-point win. Hopefully this bodes well for Colleen Hanabusa’s hopes in HI-01.

1:45: Well, well, well. It wouldn’t be an election night without some muffed numbers, now would it? The AP has un-called GA-02, and apparently Rep. Sanford Bishop is up by about 4,500 votes.

1:33: More:

51-45 tipton in CO-03, 76%; 50-46 Matheson in UT-02, 55%; 49-46 Grijalva, AZ-07, 68%; 49-47 Giffords, AZ-08, 59%; Heck by 1800 votes in NV-03, 25% in; ID-01, Minnick down 42-51, 24%; 51-46 Schrader, 82%, OR-05

1:30: Outstanding house races:

NY-01: 51-49 Bishop, 86%; NY-25: 51-49 Maffei, 94%; VA-11: Connolly by 500, 99%; Chandler by 600 in ky-06, 99%; 50-47 Peters in MI-09, 71%; Bean down 49-48 IL-08, 98%; Carnahan up 49-47 in MO-03, 99%; 48-47 Oberstar in MN-08, 45%; Farenthold by 800 votes in TX-27, 100%; 50-44 Quico in TX-23, 89%; 51.5-48.5 Heinrich in NM-01, 95%

1:25: Some early nums from Alaska: Write-ins 40, Miller 34, McAdams 25, with 26% reporting.

1:22: And in CA-18, Dennis Cardoza (D) defeats Mike Berryhill.

1:21: At least in WA-01, Jay Inslee hangs on.

1:19: In AZ-05, David Schweikert defeats Rep. Harry Mitchell.

1:12: Doug Hoffman’s cat fud from beyond the grave saves Bill Owens, who defeats Matt Doheney in NY-23.

1:08: Michael Bennet back on top in CO-Sen, 48-47 with 72% in. Heard some reports that the AP muffed the numbers out of Dem-friendly Boulder.

1:02: Bitter news, herb lovers: California’s Prop 19 won’t pass. No ganja break here – though as Ben said, when marijuana is decriminalized, only decriminals will have marijuana.

1:00am: Kristi Noem beats Stephanie Herseth Sandlin in SD-AL, which means James dreamed the future. WI-03 called for Ron Kind. NY-04 called for Carolyn McCarthy.

12:56am: Peter DeFazio (D) wins in OR-04.

12:49am: The Devil Wears Prada. Alternately, Ken Buck is now leading by 3% in Colorado. Additionally, Bobby Bright loses to Martha Roby (R) in AL-02.

12:44am: Suzan DelBene concedes to Dave Reichert in WA-08. Dems at two pickups for the night; Seals fail; Ami Bera trailing 43-49 to Dan Lungren (R) in CA-03.

12:42am: Harry Reid wins. Nuff said.

12:40am: Mike Oliverio (D) probably thought he’d get a free pass to Congress after beating Alan Mollohan, but nope, he loses to David McKinley in WV-01.

12:38am: Not a good night for the Carnahans; Russ is hanging on by 500 votes in MO-03 with 97% reporting.

12:36am: Maurice Hinchey (D) survives in NY-22, while across the country, Jaime Herrera (R) takes Brian Baird’s open WA-03 for the Rs.

12:35am: Nathan Deal (R) defeats Roy Barnes for GA-Gov.

12:33am: In a surprise, Michael McMahon loses to Mike Grimm in NY-13.

12:33am: Brock Landers er…Ben Quayle eats potatoe. And defeats Jon Hulburd for AZ-03.

12:32am: John Dingell declared the winner in MI-15.


Ow.

RESULTS: CNN | Politico

The 2010 SSP Election Prediction Contest

As usual, SSP is offering our annual election prediction contest!

Winners, as always, get some delicious delicious Green’s Babka, courtesy of Mr. NYC himself! To get the deliciousness though, you’ll have to submit your predictions on these 9 races:

  • Governors Races: Connecticut, Ohio, and Oregon

  • Senate Races: Colorado, Nevada, and Wisconsin

  • House Races: FL-25, PA-07, and VA-11

Here, just pick the winner and margin of victory, feel free to go to as many significant figures as you’d like.

…but of course, things are never this easy. There are two curveballs here, where you’ll have to say percentages for each of the candidates:

  • MN-Gov: Mark Dayton, Tom Emmer, and Tom Horner

  • AK-Sen: Scott McAdams, Joe Miller, and Lisa Murkowski

To be babka-eligible, enter your guesses into our online form. No reading comprehension = no babka!

You’ll have to have created your SSP account before midnight EDT though. If you haven’t, you can still register and submit an entry for bragging rights, and the option to get more babka in the future!

Also, feel free to share your predictions on these races (and any others!) in this thread, but be aware that people may be reading your predictions for inspiration!

Contest closes 6pm EDT today.

Why 6pm? Well, if you look at our handy little map, it’s when first polls close!

Ten More Polls from The Hill

More new polls out from The Hill:

Penn Schoen Berland for The Hill, (likely voters):

AZ-05: (10-12/14)

Harry Mitchell (D-inc): 42

David Schweikert (R): 45

(MoE: ±4.9%)

IL-14: (10-9/12)

Bill Foster (D-inc): 42

Randy Hultgren (R): 43

(MoE: ±4.9%)

IL-17: (10-12/14)

Phil Hare (D-inc): 38

Bobby Schilling (R): 45

(MoE: ±4.8%)

MS-01: (10-9/17)

Travis Childers (D-inc): 39

Alan Nunnelee (R): 44

(MoE: ±4%)

NH-01: (10-9/12)

Carol Shea-Porter(D-inc): 42

Frank Guinta (R): 47

(MoE: ±4.9%)

NY-19: (10-12/14)

John Hall (D-inc): 43

Nan Hayworth (R): 43

(MoE: ±4.8%)

NY-24: (10-12/14)

Mike Arcuri (D-inc): 47

Richard Hanna (R): 37

(MoE: ±4.9%)

PA-08: (10-9/12)

Patrick Murphy (D-inc): 46

Mike Fitzpatrick (R): 43

(MoE: ±4.9%)

PA-10: (10-12/14)

Chris Carney (D-inc): 41

Tom Marino (R): 41

(MoE: ±4.9%)

WI-08: (10-12/14)

Steve Kagen (D-inc): 44

Reid Ribble (R): 45

(MoE: ±4.8%)

3Q House Fundraising Reports Roundup

I almost wonder why we put this chart together, given that Citizens United means they can moneynuke our candidates all the live long day.

Highlights:

  • Incumbent Dems outraised by GOPer: Bobby Bright (AL-02), Harry Mitchell (AZ-05), John Salazar (CO-03), Jim Himes (CT-04), Ron Klein (FL-22), Jim Marshall (GA-08), Phil Hare (IL-17), Joe Donnelly (IN-02), Baron Hill (IN-09), Ben Chandler (KY-06), John Tierney (MA-06), Frank Kratovil (MD-01), Gary Peters (MI-09), Ike Skelton (MO-04), Travis Childers (MS-01), Gene Taylor (MS-04), Bobby Etheridge (NC-02), Mike McIntyre (NC-07), Heath Shuler (NC-11), Earl Pomeroy (ND-AL), Harry Teague (NM-02), Dina Titus (NV-03), Steve Driehaus (OH-01), Mary Jo Kilroy (OH-15), Pete DeFazio (OR-04), Kurt Schrader (OR-05), Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-03), Chris Carney (PA-10), Paul Kanjorski (PA-11), Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (SD-AL), Lincoln Davis (TN-04), Ciro D. Rodriguez (TX-23), Glenn Nye (VA-02), Tom Perriello (VA-05), Gerry Connolly (VA-11), Steve Kagen (WI-08), Nick Rahall (WV-03)
  • Incumbent GOPer outraised by Dem: Dan Lungren (CA-03), Mary Bono Mack (CA-45), Charles Djou (HI-01), Jo Ann Emerson (MO-08), Charlie Dent (PA-15), Dave Reichert (WA-08)
  • Incumbent Dems with less CoH than GOPer: Jim Costa (CA-20), Betsy Markey (CO-04), Ron Klein (FL-22), Phil Hare (IL-17), Joe Donnelly (IN-02), Russ Carnahan (MO-03), Harry Teague (NM-02), Dina Titus (NV-03), John Hall (NY-19), Steve Driehaus (OH-01), Mary Jo Kilroy (OH-15), Kurt Schrader (OR-05), Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (SD-AL), Ciro D. Rodriguez (TX-23)
  • Incumbent GOPer with less CoH than Dem: NONE
  • GOPer outraising Dem for a Dem open seat: Tim Griffin (AR-02), Larry Bucshon (IN-08), Kevin Yoder (KS-03), Jeff Landry (LA-03), Tom Reed (NY-29), Pat Meehan (PA-07), Steve Fincher (TN-08), Jaime Herrera (WA-03)
  • Dem outraising GOPer for a GOP open seat: John Carney (DE-AL), Joe Garcia (FL-25)
  • GOPer with more CoH for a Dem open seat: Mo Brooks (AL-05), Rick Crawford (AR-01), Tim Griffin (AR-02), Larry Bucshon (IN-08), Kevin Yoder (KS-03), Daniel Benishek (MI-01), Charlie Bass (NH-02), Tom Reed (NY-29), Pat Meehan (PA-07), Jaime Herrera (WA-03), Sean Duffy (WI-07), David McKinley (WV-01)
  • Dem with more CoH for a GOP open seat: John Carney (DE-AL)

Update: Many of you have correctly pointed out that Parker Griffith is a Republican now, and that were Steve Raby to win, this would technically be a pickup of a GOP open seat. Dick Muri in WA-09 is also included instead of James Postma.

The full chart:

Weekend Poll Dump: Senate, Gov, and Other Miscellany

AK-Sen: National Research, Inc. for the Club for Growth (10/8-9, likely voters):

Scott McAdams (D): 27

Lisa Murkowski (WI-inc): 31

Joe Miller (R): 33

(MoE: ±4.9%)

CA-Sen, CA-Gov, Prop 23: Ipsos for Reuters (10/12-14, likely voters, 10/2-4 in parens):

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 46 (49)

Carly Fiorina (R): 45 (45)

Jerry Brown (D): 48 (50)

Meg Whitman (R): 44 (43)

Yes on 23: 35

No on 23: 46

(MoE: ±4.6%)

CT-Gov: Quinnipiac (10/7-11, likely voters, 9/21-26 in parens):

Dan Malloy (D): 49 (45)

Tom Foley (R): 42 (42)

(MoE: ±2.9%)

FL-Gov: Susquehanna for Sunshine State News (10/12-13, likely voters, 9/28-10/3 in parens):

Alex Sink (D): 48 (44)

Rick Scott (R): 44 (50)

(MoE: ±2.2%)

HI-Gov: Aloha Vote for Honolulu Civil Beat (10/11, likely voters):

Neil Abercrombie (D): 47

Duke Aiona (R): 44

(MoE: ±2.9%)

KS-Sen, KS-Gov: Survey USA for KWCH-TV (10/10-12, likely voters, 9/14-16 in parens):

Tom Holland (D): 32 (32)

Sam Brownback (R): 60 (59)

Andrew Gray (L): 3 (3)

Ken Cannon (Ref): 4 (4)

Lisa Johnston (D): 27 (24)

Jerry Moran (R): 67 (66)

Michael Dann (L): 2 (2)

Joe Bellis (Ref): 3 (5)

(MoE: ±4%)

For SoS, Dems trail 35-53; for State Treasurer, it’s 39-55. For Attorney General, appointed Dem Steve Six trails Derek Schmidt 40-48.

MA-Gov: Suffolk University (10/10-12, registered voters, 9/14-16 in parens):

Deval Patrick (D-inc): 46 (41)

Charlie Baker (R): 39 (34)

Tim Cahill (I): 10 (14)

Jill Stein (G): 1 (4)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

ME-Gov: Critical Insights for Maine Today Media (10/10-11, likely voters, 9/27 in parens):

Libby Mitchell (D): 29 (33)

Paul LePage (R): 34 (33)

Eliot Cutler (I): 13 (10)

Shawn Moody (I): 7 (6)

Kevin Scott (I): 1 (-)

(MoE: ±4.0%)

MN-Gov: SurveyUSA for KSTP-TV (10/11-13, likely voters, 9/12-14 in parens):

Mark Dayton (DFL): 42 (38)

Tom Emmer (R): 37 (36)

Tom Horner (IP): 14 (18)

Other: 3 (5)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

NH-Sen: University of New Hampshire (10/7-12, likely voters, 9/23-29 in parens):

Paul Hodes (D): 35 (35)

Kelly Ayotte (R): 50 (50)

Other: 3 (2)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

NV-Sen, NV-Gov: MasonDixon for the LVRJ (10/11-12, likely voters, 9/20-22 in parens):

Harry Reid (D-inc): 45 (43)

Sharron Angle (R): 47 (43)

Other: 2 (2)

NOTA: 2 (4)

Rory Reid (D): 37 (37)

Brian Sandoval (R): 52 (51)

Other: 2 (3)

NOTA: 1 (2)

(MoE: ±4%)

NV-Gov: Public Policy Polling (10/7-9, likely voters, July in parens):

Rory Reid (D): 43 (38)

Brian Sandoval (R): 52 (52)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

NV-Gov: Suffolk University (10/8-11, likely voters, in parens):

Rory Reid (D): 39

Brian Sandoval (R): 50

Other: 2

NOTA: 3

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Bonus findings: Incumbent LG Brian Krolicki (R) leads Dem Jessica Sferrazza 42-30, Dem SoS Ross Miller leads 40-24, Dem Treasurer Kate Marshall trails 33-38, and Dem Controller Kim Wallin leads 31-26.

NY-Gov, NY-Sen, NY-Sen-B: SurveyUSA for WABC-TV, WHEC-TV, and WNYT-TV (10/11-13, likely voters, in parens):

Andrew Cuomo (D): 59 (57)

Carl Paladino (R): 33 (34)

Other: 6 (5)

Chuck Schumer (D): 63 (60)

Jay Townsend (R): 30 (30)

Other: 4 (6)

Kirsten Gillibrand (D): 54 (54)

Joe DioGuardi (R): 36 (35)

Other: 7 (8)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Bonus finding: Manhattan/Bronx state Senator Eric Schneiderman (D) leads Staten Island DA Dan Donovan (R) for Attorney General 44-40, down from 46-40 a week ago.

OH-Sen, OH-Gov: Univ. of Cincinnati for the Ohio Poll(10/8-13, likely voters, 9/16-20 in parens):

Lee Fisher (D): 36 (40)

Rob Portman (R): 58 (55)

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 43 (45)

John Kasich (R): 51 (49)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

OK-Sen: Sooner Poll (10/3-7, likely voters):

Jim Rogers (D): 22

Tom Coburn (R-inc): 62

Other: 2

(MoE: ±5.2%)

Other results here find the GOP leading for all statewide offices: 40-28 for LG, 50-30 for Attorney General, 41-35 for Insurance Commissioner, 45-31 for Treasurer, 35-32 for State Superintendent, 44-33 for Labor Commissioner, and 41-35 for Auditor/Inspector. Dems had held most of these offices, if you’ll recall.

OR-Gov, OR-Sen: SurveyUSA for KATU-TV (10/12-14, likely voters, 9/12-14 in parens):

John Kitzhaber (D): 46 (43)

Chris Dudley (R): 45 (49)

Greg Kord (C): 4 (3)

Wes Wagner (L): 3 (2)

Ron Wyden (D-inc): 56 (54)

Jim Huffman (R): 34 (38)

Bruce Cronk (WF): 2 (3)

Marc Delphine (L): 2 (1)

Rick Staggenborg (P): 2 (0)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

PA-Gov: Magellan (10/10, likely voters, 9/21 in parens):

Dan Onorato (D): 38 (38)

Tom Corbett (R): 48 (50)

(MoE: ±2.3%)

VT-Sen, VT-Gov, VT-AL: Mason-Dixon for Vermont Public Radio (10/11-13, registered voters):

Patrick Leahy (D-inc): 62

Len Britton (R): 27

Other: 4

Peter Shumlin (D): 43

Brian Dubie (R): 44

Other: 5

Peter Welch (D): 61

Paul Beaudry (R): 25

Other: 4

(MoE: ±4%)

WA-Sen: Washington Poll (10/5-14, registered voters, in parens):

Patty Murray (D-inc): 50

Dino Rossi (R): 42

(MoE: ±4.3%)

WA-Sen: SurveyUSA for KING-TV (10/11-14, likely voters, in parens):

Patty Murray (D-inc): 50 (50)

Dino Rossi (R): 47 (48)

(MoE: ±4.1%)

IL-Gov, IL-Sen: Signs of Life From Quinn?

Suffolk University (9/30-10/3, likely voters, no trendlines):

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 43

Bill Brady (R): 37

Scott Lee Cohen (I): 6

Rich Whitney (G): 3

Lex Green (L): 1

Undecided: 8

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Market Shares Corp. for the Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV (9/24-28, likely voters, 8/28-9/1 in parens):

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 39 (32)

Bill Brady (R): 38 (37)

Scott Lee Cohen (I): 4 (4)

Rich Whitney (G): 3 (2)

Lex Green (L): 2 (2)

Undecided: 12 (23)

(MoE: ±4%)

Suffolk University weighs in with its first poll of the race, showing Quinn with his biggest lead since….December 2009. The Chicago Tribune also has Pat Quinn surging to a lead, albeit a statistically insignificant one. Quinn’s job approval is up to 40/49 according to Suffolk and 33/48 according to the Trib, which – while terrible – is better than the 28/50 he saw last month. Perhaps most significantly, Quinn and Brady are now even in the collar counties, a large improvement from Quinn’s 17-point deficit. These socially moderate areas are where Quinn needs to do well – and where Brady’s extraordinarily conservative record as a state Senator might come to bite him.

Quinn hasn’t been shy on the airwaves with his “Who Is Bill Brady?” campaign, and from a purely anecdotal perspective, Democrats (at least that I’ve seen) seem to be coming home for Quinn… and they’re realizing that an [alleged] prostitute-cutting pawn shop owner might not be the best recipient of their protest votes if it results in a Governor Brady.

The Trib’s also not the only pollster showing some movement towards Quinn:

Public Policy Polling (9/23-26, likely voters, 8/14-15 in parens):

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 35 (30)

Bill Brady (R): 42 (39)

Scott Lee Cohen (I): 6(-)

Rich Whitney (G): 4 (11)

Lex Green (L): 2 (-)

Undecided: 11 (20)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

PPP has him down 7 and up to 35, which is up from being down 9 two months ago. Quinn’s still only getting 59% (!!) of self-reported Obama voters, but he’s doing much better among indies, now losing them 39-27 to Brady.

All three pollsters also have numbers from the Senate race, which remains close (and brutal on the airwaves, I might add…):

Suffolk University (9/30-10/3, likely voters, no trendlines):

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 41

Mark Kirk (R): 42

LeAlan Jones (G): 4

Mike Labno (L): 3

Undecided: 10

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Market Shares Corp. for the Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV (9/24-28, likely voters, 8/28-9/1 in parens):

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 38 (34)

Mark Kirk (R): 36 (34)

LeAlan Jones (G): 5 (6)

Mike Labno (L): 3 (3)

Undecided: 17 (22)

(MoE: ±4%)

Public Policy Polling (9/23-26, likely voters, 8/14-15 in parens):

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 36 (37)

Mark Kirk (R): 40 (35)

LeAlan Jones (G): 8 (9)

Mike Labno (L): 3 (-)

Undecided: 13 (19)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Both candidates’ favorables remain in the tank, at 33/48 for Alexi and 33/47 for Kirk, according to PPP.

Lastly, while the GOP’s been shut out of all statewide offices since 2006, that looks bounded for a change. For state Comptroller, south suburban State Rep. David Miller (D) trails former state Treasurer (and failed ’06 gubernatorial candidate) Judy Baar Topinka (R) by twenty points at 52-32 according to PPP or 39-23 by Suffolk, while Giannoulias aide Robin Kelly trails downstate state Rep. Dan Rutherford (R) for state Treasurer 34-42 by PPP and 26-32 according to Suffolk. (Fortunately, Democrats won’t be swept out statewide entirely, SoS Jesse White and AG Lisa Madigan are safe for re-election. Suffolk has White up 60-15, and Madigan up 63-14).

AK-Sen: In Defense of Math

Awhile back, the old mainframe down at SSP Labs told us that not only that absentees and provisionals wouldn’t be enough to help Lisa Murkowski overcome her then 1,668-vote deficit, but that they’d be likely to actually hurt her and drop her further behind, to the tune of 341 votes.

Three weeks after election day, we finally have some certainty, as the results are now certified. Drumroll, please:






















Election Day Final
Joe Miller 47,027 55,878
Lisa Murkowski 45,359 53,872
Margin 1,668 2,006

With all the final results, Miller’s margin on Murkowski increased from 1,668 to 2,006. An increase of … 338!

Now, of course, things aren’t that simple, and frankly, we’re not that good. In my input, we’d assumed 7,500 absentees and 5,000 provisionals, when in actuality, there were 17,364 additional ballots. I don’t have those broken down between provisionals and absentees, but applying that figure post hoc, that would have yielded an estimate of an increase in Miller’s margin of between 410 and 516.

But indeed, absentees and provisionals were not friendlier to Murkowski – she lost by 1.81% among election day ballots and early votes; she lost by 1.95% among provisionals and absentees. (We’d estimated she’d lose by 2.36% among provisionals and 2.97% among absentees).

No models are perfect, and they remain exactly that – models, dependent on anorexia! er…proper inputs and proper assumptions; we’ll continue to put them forth to the best of our ability. Moving forward, even as the news may get even worse (or even better, if you’re one of our many newfound GOP-leaning readers), we hope to bring the same solid news and analysis (that we assume) you come here to enjoy!

P.S. I’m no salesman, but since I’ve already gotten wet in the self-congratulatory rain, I might as well go swimming: we’re a mere 5 followers short of 3,000 on Twitter. Wink wink. Nudge nudge.

P.P.S. We have a Facebook page too.

NH-Sen, DC-Mayor: M is for Map

…and that’s good enough for me; I hope that’s good enough for you, too!

Two quick ones today, one of New Hampshire and one of DC.

First, New Hampshire:

Green for Ayotte, red for Ovide. Binnie and Bender each won exactly one town, Binnie’s down on the Massachusetts line (blue) and Bender’s way up in Coos County (purple). As you can tell, Lamontagne did very well in the cluster around Manchester.

Second, DC, but let’s play a game.

Pop quiz for all you hotshots – what are the following maps?

Hard to tell, right? Answer over the flip.

Stephen Colbert’s not far off when he described DC as the “Chocolate City with Marshmallow Center”, though it might more accurately be termed, the Chocolate East half and the Marshmallow West half…but that, of course, isn’t as catchy.

The map on the left is the percentage of the population that was Black at the 2000 census by block group (blue being a lower%); the map on the right is the margin between Fenty and Gray by precinct (blue for Fenty, red for Gray). Two larger versions below, with the color scale modified (darker green indicating a higher percentage of African-Americans)…the correlation is quite stunning.

NH, NY, and WI Results Thread #4

3:00am: Still no call in NH-Sen, or even much of any progress. Only a few more precincts trickled in over the last hour (now 83% reporting). Apparently they were Ovide-friendly areas, though, because Ayotte’s lead shifted down to 964. We can stick a fork in the last other race that’s still outstanding: incumbent Adrian Fenty has reportedly conceded to Vincent Gray in the Washington, DC mayoral primary. With that, we’re hanging it up for the night!

2:08am: If you’re wondering what’s up with NH-Sen, it’s still a smallish Ayotte lead, now with 82% reporting. Ayotte leads Lamontagne by 1,346 (still 38-37).

2:05am: And here’s some bigass news via the Twitter: Rick Lazio, who has the Conservative line, is planning to “fight it out” through November. Not that it’ll have an impact on the bottom line… now Andrew Cuomo gets to win 70-15-15 instead of 70-30.

2:03am: It’s over in NH-01: the AP has called it for Frank Guinta. With 81% reporting (91/113), he’s now beating Rich Ashooh and Sean Mahoney 32-28-28 (Mahoney got a late surge as Portsmouth came in). He has a 2,200 vote lead over Ashooh. The baggage-laden Guinta faces Carol Shea-Porter in November.

1:26am: One last projection from the SSP mainframe: we’re seeing a 1,838-vote win for Ayotte, and a 2,486-vote win for Guinta. That’s based on the latest batch of precincts (taking us up to 238 of 301, which is 79% in). Right now, Ayotte leads Lamontagne by 1,213 (38-37), while Guinta leads Ashooh by 2,237 (32-28).

1:22am: The AP has also called NH-02 for Charlie Bass. He currently leads Jennifer Horn 43-35, with a margin of about 4,000 votes, with 80% reporting. Unfortunately, facing the moderate and well-known Bass makes our matchup with Ann McLane Kuster more difficult than a matchup against teabagging Horn.

1:20am: AP has called the NY-AG race, and Maggie Haberman is reporting that Kathleen Rice has conceded, making Eric Schneiderman the Dem AG nominee. (Oh, who am I kidding… making him the AG.) It’s 34 Schneiderman, 31 Rice, with 91% reporting.

1:14am: And in NH-02, with 69% reporting, Bass leads Horn and Giuda 42-36-17. Bass’s lead is 2,708. Our model projects a 4,1110 vote win for Bass at night’s end.

1:12am: In NH-01, with 69% reporting, Guinta leads Ashooh and Mahoney 33-29-27. Guinta’s lead is 2,131. Our model projects, in the end, Guinta wins by 2,555.

1:10am: Another 10 precincts, so it’s 70% reporting. Ayotte’s up by 792 (still 38-38 with Lamontagne). That moves our projection to 1,576.

1:05am: 20 more precincts just showed up in NH, taking us up to 67% reporting. (Including all of Laconia reporting en masse, apparently.) Ayotte’s now leading Lamontagne by 700 votes. Our model has adjusted to project a final Ayotte victory of 1,593.

1:00am: If you’re wondering where we are currently, and not where we’ll be in the future, it’s Ayotte and Lamontagne both at 38%, with Ayotte up by 421. That’s with 60% reporting. (Bill Binnie is in 3rd at 14%, with 12K votes. If he spent $6 million of his own money, that’s only about $500 per vote.)

12:56am: SSP Labs is bending the curve downward: now we’re seeing a 1,441 Ayotte victory after everything’s been counted.

12:48am: Sarah Palin appears to have either dropped her BlackBerry on the floor, or else has lapsed into speaking Norwegian, with her latest Tweet:

Competitive trongmsgssent& tonite;congrats 2 the victors;Now, Commonsense Constitutionalists, let’s unite

12:46am: In case you were wondering, Mike Castle has now made clear that he will not endorse or otherwise support Christine O’Donnell. (No word on a Coons endorsement?) He also made clear that he won’t pursue a write-in bid, which would be most he could do.

12:44am: The AP has also now called NY-Sen-B’s GOP primary for Joe DioGuardi (who also has the Con line). He wins over Malpass and Blakeman, 42-38-20. With Kara departed from American Idol, I suppose Joe resumes being the most famous member of the DioGuardi clan.

12:41am: Here’s a couple calls from the “who cares?” department that we didn’t mention earlier: Jay Townsend (who also has the Con line) won the NY-Sen-A GOP line, 54-46, over Gary Berntsen. And in MD-Sen, Eric Wargotz eventually won the GOP nomination; he’ll face off against Barb Mikulski.

12:35am: SSP Labs has adjusted the NH-Sen projection, with the recent Ayotte surge. Now we’re looking at Ayotte by 1,783 in the end.

12:34am: Looks like Charlie Bass may have bottomed out early in NH-02 and is starting to put some distance between him and Jennifer Horn. Now he’s up 42-36, with 17 for Bob Giuda.

12:29am: Nathan Gonzales, ongoing debunker of the “anti-incumbent” meme, points out that as of tonight, 415 of 422 incumbents (House + Senate) have won re-election.

12:24am: In fact, the switch is already underway: the AP is seeing, for the first time, Kelly Ayotte in the lead. She’s up 39-38 (with a 200-vote spread), with almost half reporting. It doesn’t look like any of the bigger cities (other than Manchester and Nashua, who are done) reported anything, so the difference seemed to come from small towns.

12:22am: SSP Labs has kicked into gear, looking at NH-Sen by county-by-county extrapolation. It’s going to go down to the wire, but we’re seeing a 374-vote win for Kelly Ayotte at the end of the count.

12:07am: Matt Doheny wins the GOP nod against Doug Hoffman in NY-23. Cat fud lovers take note: Hoffman still has the Conservative ballot line for November… and Hoffman is Hoffman!

12:05am: We’re now at 40% in, and Ovide’s lead has whittled down to 733 votes. Guinta and Bass are both up by a cool grand.

11:58pm: Lamontagne’s lead has shrunk to 1127, and Bass is now up 910.

11:53 pm: Adrian Fenty is saved from Bob Inglis-dom, having recovered to a 45-54 deficit in DC.

11:50 pm: In New Hampshire, Charlie Bass in NH-02 is the only one who’s seen his lead increase, now to 668 votes. Guinta’s down to 891 in NH-01, and sadly, Ovide’s lead is now down to 1,324.

11:47 pm: For NY-AG, Eric Schneiderman now leads Kathleen Rice by more than 10,000 votes, mostly on his strength in NYC (44-25 over Rice). However, 71% of the city is now reporting, compared to 60% of LI. For NY-Sen-B, Joe DioGuardi continues to lead in all regions of the state with a narrow 42-39 margin.

11:44 pm: At least a second member of the NY State Senate has been booted tonight, the always-sketchy Pedro Espada. Note that both defectors, Espada and Monserrate, have been rejected by voters.

11:40 pm: Reid Ribble the Raging Roofer has been declared the winner in WI-08. Worst incumbent performance of the night, currently, goes to Adrian Fenty, who’s now staring at 70-29 deficit in the DC Mayoral primary. This is in contrast to Charlie Rangel, who’s just been declared the winner in NY-15 with 53%.

11:38 pm: We’re oddly back where we started in NH-02, where Charlie Bass’ lead over Jen Horn is now 203 votes. Guinta leads Ashooh by 950 votes in NH-01, and Lamontagne’s lead over Ayotte is now less than 4%.

11:36 pm: NY-13 has also been called for Michael Grimm.

11:34 pm: Out in NY-01, Randy Altschuler’s been declared the winner. Charlie Rangel is pulling a surprisingly strong 52% in NY-15, while Matt Doheny clings to a 7-point lead in NY-23.

11:26 pm: More NH precincts slowly trickling in, with Bass slightly padding his margin in NH-02, now up to 400 votes. Ovide’s lead continues to slide, now below 4.5%. Further up the ballot in New York, Eric Schneiderman now leads Kathleen Rice, though the city is now 47% reporting compared to 43% of Lawn Guyland. Joe DioGuardi continues to lead for the right to challenge Kirsten Gillibrand, narrowly leading Malpass in the City, on LI, Upstate, and Westchester.

11:22 pm: DavidNYC at the helm here. I’ve been waiting to write these words since February: The AP has called NY-14 for Carolyn Maloney. All is well in the Silk Stocking district. That is all. Carry on.

11:17 pm: With 88% reporting in NY-01, Altschuler is leading Demos 45-30, with Cox at 24.  This is unfortunate since Altschuler has the Conservative line as well, but cat fud lovers need not worry, as there’ll be Meow Mix afoot regardless in NY-23, as Doheny and Hoffman have split the Independence and Conservative lines. With 64% reporting there, Doheny is up 54-46.

11:13 pm: Back in New York, SSP’s ancestral home, there are a slew of House races to report on. Gary Ackerman has had a surprisingly weak performance in NY-05 floating in the 60’s all night, currently 66-34. Ed Towns has been declared the winner in NY-10, also with a 66-34 margin.

11:10 pm: In New Hampshire, Ovide’s lead over Ayotte continues to thin, as more of the areas outside Ovide’s I-93 strongholds start to report. Charlie Bass’ lead is now 220 votes, but with much left to report.

11:08 pm: Meanwhile, in DC, a few more non-absentee precincts have rolled in, with incumbent Fenty now finding himself in a 59-39 hole.

11:05 pm: Real World update: Sean Duffy’s been called the winner in WI-07 with 67%, while Kevin Powell is getting only 34% against Ed Towns in NY-10.

11:03 pm: It turns out that we’re not the only ones that find Rick Lazio boring and lifeless! The AP calls the GOP Gov nod for Carl “Welfare Prison” Paladino, who now earns the right to get his ass handed to him by Andrew Cuomo. Lazio, of course, still keeps the Conservative ballot line…haven’t we had enough Cat Fud tonight?

11:01 pm: These New Hampshire precincts trickle in mighty slowly, but they sure pack a punch. Charlie Bass is now only leading Jen Horn by 202 votes or 1.2% in NH-02. Ovide Lamontagne continues to maintain a slight edge over Kelly Ayotte, though she’s closed to within 5%.

10:58 pm: In the westernmost state tonight, Wisconsin, the GOP Governor’s nod’s been called for Scott Walker, who’s now leading Mark Neumann 56-41 with 37% reporting. In the House races, Sean Duffy has 67% in WI-07; Reid Ribble has 51% in WI-08.


Results: