Author: jonah in nyc

Ok so this isn’t much of a swing district since we took the seat this October, but still slightly relevant.

Today Rep. Vito Fossella (R) was sentenced for his May 1 DWI.  The judge sentenced Vito to 5 days in jail, to be served on December 19th baring an appeal.

Additionally the judge required;

* Vito pay a $300 fine

* ordered him to complete an alcohol safety program

* suspended his drivers license in Virginia for one year

Fossella will likely appeal this ruling and request a jury trial which would delay his trial and potential sentencing until after his term in Congress has been completed.  This would also likely avoid a House Ethics investigation.

So there are three ways Bob from Manhattan can get off of the ballot, death, moving out of the state and being nominated for a judgeship.  Last night he was nominated, possibly against his desire, for a judgeship position.  From the NY Post;

Republican Robert Straniere, who’s running for Rep. Vito Fossella’s seat, was nominated as a Manhattan judicial candidate last night – a move that could pave the way for the disgraced congressman to get back on the ballot and run for re-election.

Several Republican sources said the New York County GOP made the nomination with the understanding that Straniere would accept it.

But Straniere, a former Staten Island assemblyman who’s been at odds with fellow Republicans, hasn’t been contacted about the judicial post and “unequivocally” plans to turn it down, his spokesman told The Post.

There are very mixed signals here. Earlier last week there was polling going around indicating Fossella or someone close to him were looking to see if he could win re-election, if only he could find a way back on the ballot.  We had a quick New York civics lesson on how you replace a nominee on the ballot when Paul Atanasio, the Conservative Party nominee in this race was nominated for a judicial position, allowing the state party to then replace him with some no name.

Bob Straniere is saying he doesn’t want the judgeship and is running for Congress.  Bob can simply not accept it and this farce of a Fossella comeback is dead.  It looks like this is the most likely situation, but certainly if Fossella wants in you never know what offer Straniere might get.  

This simply could just be a lot of political pressure and maneuvering by a party that  has lost its leadership and is falling apart or this potentially, and I say this with much hesitation, could open up the seat for Fossella to be renominated.  I don’t see a path for Fossella to win if he goes down this road.  He does not have the Conservative Party line and at this point can not get it.  He has a trial date later this Fall in October for his DWI arrest.  It would take immense arrogance on his part to jump back in.  Since the Republican Party has been a joke in this race for months now I am not ruling it out.

stay tuned…

(From the diaries with a few light edits. Be sure to bookmark Jonah’s NY-13 Blog for the latest news on this race. – promoted by James L.)

All signs point to a McMahon vs. Harrison primary on the Democratic side of this race.  Today brings us news that we might also have a primary on the Republican side.  Dr. Jamshad Wyne (R), GOP Finance Chair in Staten Island has indeed entered the race;

The Todt Hill resident, who has gone back and forth on the race over the last two weeks, announced yesterday he would challenge Frank Powers, a Metropolitan Transportation Authority board member and retired Wall Street executive, for the GOP congressional nod.

Wyne had stated after Frank Powers won the Richmond County GOP endorsement that he likely would vote for the Democrat Mike McMahon.  There is a lot of frustration on the GOP side among ranking members with their party’s choice.  If Wyne does follow through and challenges Powers in a primary that would be even better news for us.  My guess though is we will see the party get him out, whether offering him the nomination for another office or just removing him from the party leadership.

Also interesting is the possibility that the Conservative Party will break with the GOP nomination and support their own candidate, possibly Paul Atanasio.  If this happens this seats even further to a likely pick up for us. Primaries are scheduled for September 9th.

UPDATE: Domenic Recchia withdraws:

As Democrats, we have an incredible opportunity before us, to turn a red seat blue and bring true change and real leadership to the residents in Staten Island and Brooklyn. That will not happen if we are not united as a party.

Therefore, I am withdrawing my bid for the 13th Congressional district, and will support our party’s nominee, Mike McMahon.

Thank you to all of the people who believed in me, worked for me and fought for me over the last year – especially those who encouraged me to stay in the race despite the altered political landscape.

Most of all, I would like to thank the voters of the congressional district, who welcomed me with open arms and believed in my message.

I have not made any decisions about my political future and have no further comment at this time.

The Republican County Committee is holding candidate interviews tonight, where if you can believe former candidate GOP chairman John Friscia, Lisa Giovinazzo is the front runner for their endorsement.  Lisa Giovinazzo as he tells us, because I had no clue is an NY1 reporter.  She is also known for losing to McMahon previously when she ran against him in 2003 for his City Council seat.  As a third/fourth/fifth tier candidate I am sure everyone is familiar with  her, but if not here is her 2003 candidate bio.

This seems to be a good indication that State Senator Andrew Lanza is all but out of the race.

update:

State Senate Lanza officially withdraws.

(Impressive work.  From the diaries with a few minor edits. – promoted by James L.)

By now you know Rep. Vito Fossella did some very bad things.  There are a lot of news articles and blog posts covering his immoral behavior.  I don’t need to get into that, instead I am here to provide a better understanding of just who these potential Democratic candidates are that are suddenly being talked about.  To start with, only one candidate has declared for this race, Steve Harrison.  Additionally, City Councilman Domenic Recchia is raising money for this race but has yet to declare his candidacy or put together a campaign staff of any kind for almost eight months.  The rest of this diary is going to focus on three Democratic office holders from Staten Island; State Senator Diane Savino, Assemblyman Mike Cusick and City Councilman Mike McMahon.  

Assembly Member Mike Cuisck

Mike Cusick is a State Assembly member representing the 63rd Assembly District covering mid island of Staten Island. His district is overlapped on the congressional district (green below);

From his Assembly bio;

Prior to his election, Cusick served as Director of Constituent Services for U.S. Senator Charles E. Schumer.

snip

He was instrumental in researching and developing statewide legislation, including the law to close the Fresh Kills Landfill.

Assemblymember Cusick was first elected to the Assembly in 2002 and has won re-election in 2004 and 2006.  He is up for re-election this November.

2006

Cusick (D, I, C, WFP): 62% (13,086)

Grossman (R): 38% (5,775)

Congressional totals in the 63 AD

Harrison (D, WFP):  44% (8,547)

Vito (R, I, C):  56% (11,215)

Why he could be the nominee

Cusick represents the mid-island which separates the very Democratic North Shore from the very Republican South Shore.  He has a large amount of bi-partisan appeal, needed to hold this seat.  In 2006 he was endorsed by both the Independence and Conservative Parties who had endorsed Rep. Fossella in the congressional race.  While Rep. Fossella won this Assembly District in his 2006 Congressional run, Cusick managed to get even more voters than Fossella in his down ballot race.

Rep. Anthony Weiner has publicly stated his support for Cusick and his desire that he run for this seat.  While Weiner’s seat is in Queens and not in this district he is considered a top tier mayoral candidate which may give his ‘endorsement’ additional weight and resources.

His previous boss was Sen. Schumer.  Schumer could provide access to his donors, although he offered very little to Harrison after his endorsement in 2006.

The DCCC has been apparently dropping his name as someone of interest.  As far back as 2005 the DCCC had been trying to recruit him.

Why he might not be the nominee

Cusick has been on everyone’s short list for at least the 2006 and 2008 congressional race yet has passed on both opportunities.  He has what appears to be a seat in the Assembly for as long as he wants it and would have to give that up if he ran for Congress in a general election.  

If he gives up his Assembly seat it will not be as easy for Democrats to hold as Savino’s senate seat or McMahon’s city council seat.  That said the Democrats hold a 2:1 advantage in the Assembly so this would be a minor loss for the state party.

He would start a congressional campaign with no money.

---

Sen. Diane Savino

Diane Savino is a State Senator representing the 23rd Sentate District covering the north shore of Staten Island as well as portions of Brooklyn including Borough Park, Coney Island, Bensonhurst, and Sunset Park. Her senate district is overlapped on the congressional district (green below);

From her State Senate bio;

An active member of her local labor union, the Social Service Employees Union, Local 371, DC 37 of AFSCME, she quickly rose through the ranks to become the Vice President for Political Action & Legislative Affairs, where she became one of the most respected labor leaders in New York State.

Sen. Savino was first elected to State Senate in 2004 and won re-election in 2006.  She is up for re-election this November.

2004

Diane Savino (D, WFP): 63%

Al Curtis (R, I, C): 37%

2006

Diane Savino (D, I, WFP): 99%

no opponent

Why she could be the nominee

As noted above she has great ties to the labor community.  In 2004 the Democratic nominee Frank Barbaro was able to raise $187,000 of his $425,000 from union contributions.  She should be able to easily match Barbaro’s financial success.

Savino was an Executive Board member for Working Families Party.  WFP has been instrumental in providing very strong ground operations in two high profile State Senate  races, Craig Johnson and Darrel Aubertine. I often noted before Fossella’s latest ethics problem that involvement by WFP would be critical in flipping this seat.  She has the strongest connection of any of the candidates to WFP.

The DCCC has been apparently dropping her name as someone of interest.  As far back as 2005 the DCCC had been trying to recruit her.

Why she might not be the nominee

A victory for Savino would put a state senate seat up for grabs in a year Democrats possibly are going to flip the Senate.  She also is co-chair of the New York State Democratic Senate Campaign Committee and in charge of recruitment.  Certainly the New York State Party would not be supportive of her giving up this seat and she would give up all of her work towards reclaiming a majority.  

Diane has up until this point publicly supported Domenic Recchia.  Recchia would need to most likely drop out before Savino would enter.

She would start a congressional campaign with no money.

---

City Council Member Mike McMahon

Mike McMahon is a member of the New York City Council, representing the north shore of Staten Island including the neighborhoods of; Rosebank, Westerleigh, New Brighton, West Brighton, Mariners Harbor, Stapleton, St. George, Park Hill, Port Richmond, Clifton, Arlington, Grymes Hill and Dongan Hills.  His district is overlapped on the congressional district (green below);

McMahon was first elected in 2001, has won re-election in 2005 and will be term limited out of office in 2009.

2005

Mike McMahon (D, WFP, C): 70%

Jody Hall (R): 30%

Why he could be the nominee

McMahon chairs the Sanitation Committee which is extremely influential in Staten Island with its history as a waste transfer and landfill end point at Great Kills.  His leadership on the issue would be a strong campaigning point.

The DCCC has been apparently dropping his name as someone of interest.  As far back as 2005 the DCCC had been trying to recruit him.

The somewhat corresponding 60th Assembly District was carried by Harrison with 57% and Barbaro with 54%.  If McMahon could carry it with his 70% he could gain anywhere from 3,000-7,000 additional votes depending on turnout.  That could amount to a 2-3% increase based on 2006 results.  

Why he might not be the nominee

McMahon is a partner in the law firm of O’Leary, McMahon and Spero.  In his current role as a member of city council he is able to continue practicing law and earning income from his law firm.  He would have to give this up if he were elected to Congress.  The base city council salary is $112,000 whereas the base congressional salary is around $175,000.  This difference may be enough to allow him to give up the law firm and afford to raise a family in New York City.

His wife Judith Novellino McMahon is currently serving as a Civil Court judge and is running for the state Supreme Court in this fall.  Mike McMahon has indicated he intends to actively campaign for his wife which may be difficult if he is involved in a Congressional race.  The two also have two children.  The prospects of his wife obtaining a higher judicial role and him splitting time between DC and Staten Island may not be enticing for their family.

McMahon has often been mentioned as a likely candidate for the Staten Island Borough Presidency race in 2009.  This would allow him to stay home yet continue his political involvement in the district and is possibly more appealing than DC.

He would start a congressional campaign with no money.

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Should the Democratic side of this race go to a primary I do not foresee any reason why more than one of the above would jump, if any.  I have even outlined above why we may not see any of them enter the race at all.  All of them have previously passed on the opportunity for various reasons, so it would not be unrealistic to not see any of them get in this time.  If you want to place odds on them in terms of favorites, I believe they would come in the same order as in this post; Cusick, Savino then McMahon.  

I have covered Vito Fossella and the NY-13 Congressional race for three years at the NY13Blog.

Tom Wrobleski is reporting in the Staten Island Advance that despite Rep. Fossella having the strongest quarter he is now trailing Domenic Recchia in Cash on Hand. All the candidates had rather sad first quarter fund raising efforts.  Last quarter’s number in parenthesis;

Q1

Fossella (R): $148,641 ($304,453)

Harrison (D): $43,878 ($69,230)

Recchia (D): $129,690 ($220,770)

COH

Fossella: $248,496 ($250,501)

Harrison: $91,131 ($83,116)

Recchia: $325,175 ($206,451)

If this is true, FEC filings are not up yet, Fossella will have already blown all the money he raised this quarter and finish with less cash on hand than he had at the end of 2007, $250,501. While this is good news that Fossella is behind in cash, there is a late primary in September and Harrison is clearly the progressive favorite in this race having racked up the only endorsements thus far from various political clubs as well as PDA nationally.

The DCCC has recently released some notes indicating that they plan on targeting Rep. Vito Fossella (NY-13), my favorite candidate for retirement, rather hard in his quest for a seventh term in 2008.  This from their press release on Jan 12, 2006;

The 2006 cycle proved that ethics matters to average voters. While there were several Republicans defeated this past cycle as a direct result of their ethical lapses, a handful returned to Washington and should be considered among the most vulnerable.

We will aggressively work in districts targeting ethically challenged incumbents like Tim Murphy (PA-18), Gary Miller (CA-42), Rick Renzi (AZ-01), John Doolittle (CA-04), Jerry Lewis (CA-41) and Vito Fossella (NY-13).

First off, if this is an indication of how Rep. Chris Van Hollen will lead the DCCC efforts to pick up more seats in 2008, then by all means my enthusiasm is going to be hard to keep subdued.  However I, like many of us have been burnt by the DCCC in the past, so I am not jumping into this new relationship naively thinking things will be different this time.  In 2004 the DCCC or some individuals associated with the group lead our Democratic candidate Frank Barbaro to believe that they were ready to interject some money into the race.  That money was always just around the corner.  They just toyed with our emotions for a bit and eventually stood us up.  If that was heartbreaking then 2006 just incensed us and lead many to swear off dancing with the DCCC ever again.  After many of the local officials slowly backed out of the race, Stephen Harrison a local lawyer stepped up to take on Rep. Fossella and walked into the nomination due to his fighting spirit.  After being vetted by the local party and being given the nod we find out that the DCCC decided to involve itself, backing a city council member who lived outside the district, in March just eight months before the election. 

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), which bankrolls House races, yesterday said it would embrace de Blasio’s candidacy. (Staten Island Advance)

De Blasio, whom was being backed by Rep. Rangel, eventually backed out after a month of indecision, leaving Harrison to focus on Rep. Fossella.  One of the bigger problems with this fiasco is that New York state has a late September primary.  This makes a divisive primary an ineffective spring board to then take on a Republican incumbent in under two months.

Curiously though it wasn’t until long after this past November that I came across this piece in the New York Sun from June 28, 2005;

New York Democrats are not alone in their efforts to win the Fossella seat. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has already started priming the 13th Congressional District for 2006.

SNIP

Over Memorial Day weekend, it paid for radio advertisements attacking Mr. Fossella’s vote against a measure that would have expanded Tricare, the military health-insurance program.

SNIP

The organization also commissioned a poll that matched Mr. Fossella with three potential Democratic challengers: City Council Member Michael McMahon, Assemblyman Michael Cusick, and state Senator Diane Savino.

SNIP

In addition to the Congressional Campaign Committee’s efforts, the Seattle-based Democratic Advancement Political Action Committee, a group created in 2002 to raise money for Democratic candidates nationwide, plans to organize grassroots field operations once a Democratic candidate is chosen.

I am bewildered as to where all of this is coming from.  DCCC funded polling?  DCCC funded radio advertising?  Organizing grassroots field operations?  Not surprisingly after the DCCC slumped away from the district eleven months later, no polling was done by the DCCC even though indications were that Fossella had internal polling showing him in trouble.  No radio ads were purchased by the DCCC.  No grassroots field operations were established.  Harrison went on to give Fossella the most competitive race yet, holding him to 57-43 (59-41 in 2004), being outspent by a margin of 13:1. 

And to make this flirtation worse, it was just back in June 2006, after the DCCC backed out of the race, that they put out a press release attacking three Republicans for their unethical lavish travels; Rep. Pombo (since defeated), Rep. Sweeney (since defeated) and Rep. Fossella.  We have heard the story before.

So it is not without some trepidation that I re-read that DCCC statement that they will be going after Fossella in 2008.  But not all developments are worrisome.  On December 18, 2006 I suggested that Rep. Fossella should be moved to new committees, instead of continually rewarding him with seats on both the House Committee on Energy and Commerce and the House Committee on Financial Services.  The reasoning is obvious;

The side benefit, and reason for suggesting these moves is that Rep. Fossella receives large amounts of financial support from the industries that benefit from limited oversight by these two committees; financial institutions and real estate/housing. Fossella’s largest sector donations come from the Finance, Insurance and Real Estate sector, a total of nearly $1.5 million in donations and influence, $358,790 of that just in the last election cycle.

2004-06 Donors (via Opensecrets.org)
1. Securities & Investment: $109,500
3. Real Estate: $86,050
4. Insurance: $60,250
5. Health Professionals: $52,700
7. Accountants: $37,400
9. Commercial Banks: $33,790

So it was with renewed excitement, and new found ability to control the minds of our new Democratic majority leaders, that news broke that Fossella was forced to give up one of his committee assignments.  In the end he choose to leave the House Committee on Financial Services, the largest sector donor to his campaigns.  It also made me appear to know what I was talking about back in December;

Should Fossella get moved from one of his committees he served on last term (04-06) consider that a good sign that this seat is on the DCCC’s list in 08 and that they are going to start the race early.

The actual implications of both of these developments will be more apparent next year, however right now we can see that Fossella’s fund raising abilities should be drastically impacted.  Without some unforeseen major fund raising prowess, Fossella could have trouble cracking $1 million.  To make matters worse for him, he ended his 2006 campaign over $200,000 in debt.  From what I have seen this campaign debt is a first for Fossella, who tends to carry over a nice chunk of cash meaning Democrats typically start out well behind.

So is this seat really in play or are we just setting ourselves up to be stood up and heart broken by the DCCC once again?  That answer will no doubt have a lot to do with who jumps into this race and how effective they are at early fund raising and early volunteer support.  You can follow speculation at 2008 Race Tracker.  However, if Fossella is one of the most ethically challenged (=corrupt) Republicans, can the DCCC really walk away from this district again? 

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