Author: nycyoungin

I was working on an extended redistricting of Texas, but I accidentally closed out the file! I had saved it using an .RTF, but I don’t know how to open it (can anyone help with that??). But anyway, I did take a photoshot of Southern Texas before I closed out, and I think it might be worthwhile to examine what redistricting will look like along the border.

I used the 2010 Census numbers for this, so all follow the VRA. I also plugged in the partisan data for TX-23 and found that if you attach the district to San Angelo, you get a Obama 44% district and VAP of 59% Hispanic. Pretty cool!

I drew an extra fajita strip (purple) that went about 49% for Obama, while being around 60% VAP. The other Hispanic districts (TX-15, 20, 28, 35) are all around 70% VAP. The new TX27 (green) is safe for Farenthold (back-of-the-envelope calculations say that it went 41% for Obama).

Also, as you can see, McCaul is significantly safer, it’s now a 38% Obama district. However, and this is important, the estimations under the partisan data are wildly different than the actual Census numbers: the district is actually far more Hispanic under the 2010 numbers. In fact, it’s only 60% white VAP, and less so with the total numbers. Austin is far more Hispanic that one would imagine.

Also, Carter is made a lot safer in his district by removing Killeen to the super-duper red TX-11.

So tell me what you think! Sorry I don’t have the rest available–I will if someone helps me out. I do think this is what’s going to happen, though.

During the last redistricting, the Democrats and the Republicans allowed for a split redistricting plan: Dems redraw the Assembly, the GOP drew the Senate, and they both drew the House map. Now, with split control again, I think it would be best to allow the Courts to draw the redistricting map, even if it means Dems lose about twenty Assembly seats–Dems already control about 70% of the vote share!

So, I tried to draw the map as if I were the courts. Sorry if my naming of colors throws you off.

My plan is a fair plan:

I make as many minority-majority seats as I think would be necessary;

No district is designed specifically for any current senator;

County splitting is avoided as much as possible;

Almost all towns are kept together: no joke, there is not a single town outside of Nassau and Suffolk that is split. In Suffolk, Islip is too big, so three precincts are moved to NY-02. In Nassau, some hamlets might be split, but I’m pretty sure there aren’t that many that are;

In the City, I tired to respect racial groups;

Upstate, I tried to keep regions together.

To that end, Democrats would surely take the State Senate under this map. I’ve classified everything from R+1 to D+3 as a swing district. If you give Republicans all swing districts, they’ll only muster 25 seats. Kudos to the 2000 GOP, they made one heckuva map. Can you imagine if Dems made a Senate map? They could easily make 45 seats, but that’s a different story.

Here’s my map:

NY-1 D+1 Blue

South Hampton, Part of Brookhaven

NY-2 R+0 Green

Part of Brookhaven, Three Precincts of Islip

NY-3 D+1 Purple

Rest of Islip

NY-4 R+4 Red

Huntington, Smithtown

NY-5 R+2 Yellow

Babylon, Part of Oyster Bay

NY-6 D+2 Teal

Part of Hempstead

NY-7 D+2 Gray

Part of Hempstead

NY-8 D+3 Bluish Purple

Part of Hempstead, Part of North Hempstead

NY-9 D+1 Turquoise

Part of North Hempstead, Part of Oyster Bay

NY-10 D+14 Pink

Queens

NY-11 D+18 Light Green

Queens

NY-12 D+27 Light Blue

Queens

NY-13 D+27 Beige

Queens

NY-14 D+10 Mustard Green

Queens

NY-15 D+40 Dark Blue

Queens

NY-16 D+27 Orange

Queen, Brooklyn

NY-17 D+44 Lighter Green

Brooklyn

NY-18 R+5 Yellow

Brooklyn

NY-19 D+44 Green

Brooklyn

NY-20 D+42 Light Pink

Brooklyn

NY-21 D+39 Velvet Red

Brooklyn

NY-22 D+28 Brown

Brooklyn

NY-23 R+4 Darker Turquoise

Brooklyn

NY-24 D+12 Dark Purple

Brooklyn, Staten Island

NY-25 R+15 Pinkish Red

Staten Island

NY-26 D+41 Dark Gray

The Bronx

NY-27 D+31 Green

Brooklyn, Manhattan

NY-28 D+31 Dark Pink

Manhattan

NY-29 D+33 Green Gray

Manhattan

NY-30 D+23 Orange Red

Manhattan

NY-31 D+43 Yellow

Manhattan

NY-32 D+39 Red

Manhattan

NY-33 D+43 Blue

The Bronx

NY-34 D+25 Green

The Bronx, Queens

NY-35 D+32 Purple

The Bronx

NY-36 D+37 Orange

The Bronx, Mount Vernon

NY-37 D+9 Blue

Yonkers, New Rochelle

NY-38 D+11 Turquoise

White Plains, Rye

NY-39 D+5 Yellow

Peekskill, Clarkstown

NY-40 R+3 Red

Ramapo, Orangetown

NY-41 EVEN Gray

Middletown, Newburgh

NY-42 R+2 Light Green

Poughkeepsie, Beacon

NY-43 D+6 Pink

Kingston, Hudson

NY-44 D+9 Reddish

Syracuse

NY-45 D+9 Blue

Ithaca, Auburn, Cortland

NY-46 R+6 Prange

Elmira

NY-47 R+6 Light Pink

Rome, Utica, Oneida

NY-48 R+6 Orange

Watertown, Oswego

NY-49 R+1 Red

Binghamton, Vestal, Oneonta

NY-50 R+6 Gray Blue

Gloversville, Amsterdam

NY-51 D+5 Brown

Schenectady, Troy

NY-52 D+8 Dark Green

Albany, Rensselaer

NY-53 D+5 Gray

Plattsburg, Potsdam, Ogdensburg

NY-54 R+2 Light Beige

Saratoga Springs, Glens Falls

NY-55 D+4 Dark Beige

Part of Rochester, Perinton, Geneva

NY-56 D+12 Blue

Rest of Rochester

NY-57 R+11 Green

Olean, Corning

NY-58 R+5 Purple

Jamestown, Dunkirk, Pomfret, Orchard Park

NY-59 D+15 Red

Part of Buffalo, Lackawanna

NY-60 D+8 Yellow

Part of Buffalo, Niagara Falls, Tonawanda, North Tonawanda

NY-61 R+5 Turquoise

Amherst, Lockport

NY-62 R+8 Gray

Greece

Abridged write up:

One VRA district in Cleveland (that I got to 50%+1)

All incumbents are kept in their homes.

Wilson’s and Boccieri’s districts are combined. So are Kucinich’s and Sutton’s.

Let me know what you think. Will post more data later.

With Texas looking to gain four seats after the Census, I decided to gerrymander Texas to protect the current twenty Republican representatives. In my plan, I try to create a realistic-looking map and I try to follow the VRA. In my opinion, there will need to be at least two, maybe three new VRA-protected Hispanic-majority seats. My plan draws two, but they’re not slam-dunks for Democrats, unless Arizona’s “papers, please” law mobilizes Hispanics to actually, well, vote.  Republicans will pick up two of the new seats for sure, and probably the third.

With the GOP likely in control of the House, definitely the Senate, a quite possibly the governor’s mansion, this is what I think the trifecta might do.

In the end, only two white Democrats should survive this plan, unless Gene Green gets primaried by an ambitious Hispanic politician. Also, Ciro Rodriguez-who doesn’t even live there in the 23rd anymore-gets a pretty tough district.

In the end, this plan should result in a 26-10 Republican majority, while substantially protecting all Republican incumbents. At the end of the decade, though, this could change. The ideal population numbers are all within a 1000, meaning the districts can change a little to get to the ideal number, 0. There is 3,963 people who I can’t find on the map; they voted 62-38 for McCain.

After reading the write up, scroll down to see my summary at the end.

Please enjoy!

P.S. I worked forever on this, so I will go crazy if I see some b.s. diary go up and bump it down. Y’all know what I’m talking about.

METROPLEX

TX-3 PURPLE

Incumbent: Sam Johnson (R-Plano)

Counties: Collin

Cities of Note: Plano, Allen, Frisco, Wylie, McKinney

Obama: 38%

McCain: 61%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 42-57

White: 76 Black: 5 Hispanic: 10 Asian: 9 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

The district is completely based in Collin County, which has grown tremendously. Johnson is safe and will be succeeded by a conservative Republican if he retires.

TX-5 YELLOW

Incumbent: Jeb Hensarling (R-Dallas)

Counties: Anderson, Henderson, Wood, Rains, Cherokee (Part), Dallas (Part), Tarrant (Part), Kaufman (Part)

Cities of Note: Arlington, Mansfield, Dallas, Mesquite

Obama: 41%

McCain: 58%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 36-63

White: 71 Black: 13 Hispanic: 13 Asian: 4 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

TX-12 LIGHT BLUE

Incumbent: Kay Granger (R-Fort Worth)

Counties: Tarrant (Part), Wise (Part), Parker (Part)

Cities of Note: Fort Worth

Obama: 37%

McCain: 62%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 36-63

White: 67 Black: 5 Hispanic: 23 Asian: 5 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

The district gets smaller, but Granger should continue to be comfortable here.

TX-17 DARK BLUE

Incumbent: VACANT

Counties: Hood, Somerville, Johnson, Hill, Tarrant (Part)

Cities of Note: Arlington

Obama: 35%

McCain: 64%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 32-67

White: 77 Black: 7 Hispanic: 12 Asian: 4 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Likely Republican if Edwards runs; Safe Republican otherwise

Chet Edwards must be really annoying for Republicans. I drew a new Arlington-based district, with some of Edwards’ old exurban territory. Like I wrote, part of the DeLaymander’s success was that Democratic incumbents had to run in areas unfamiliar to them. As talented as he is, I don’t see Edwards winning in reflexively Republican urban areas in Tarrant County. Plus, Waco isn’t even in the district, so he’d have to move. This might finally dislodge him.

TX-24 DARK PURPLE

Incumbent: Kenny Marchant (R-Coppell)

Counties: Dallas (Part), Tarrant (Part), Denton (Part)

Cities of Note: Coppell, Irving, Dallas

Obama: 39%

McCain: 60%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 44-55

White: 65 Black: 7 Hispanic: 20 Asian: 8 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

TX-26 GRAY

Incumbent: Michael Burgess (R-Lewisville)

Counties: Denton (Part), Tarrant (Part)

Cities of Note: Denton, Lewisville, Frisco

Obama: 35%

McCain: 64%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 41-58

White: 80 Black: 5 Hispanic: 11 Asian: 4 Native American:  0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

TX-30 DALLAS ORANGY COLOR

Incumbent: Eddie Bernice Johnson (D-Dallas)

Counties: Dallas (Part), Tarrant (Part)

Cities of Note: Dallas, Fort Worth

Obama: 83%

McCain: 17%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 82-18

White: 22 Black: 52 Hispanic: 22 Asian: 3 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic

The district now goes into Tarrant to take in black-majority precincts to create a new VRA-protected black-majority seat in the Metroplex.

TX-32 ORANGE

Incumbent: Pete Sessions (R-Dallas)

Counties: Rockwall, Dallas (Part)

Cities of Note: Dallas, Garland, Richardson, Rockwall

Obama: 40%

McCain: 58%

Old District (Obama-McCain):

White: 71 Black: 7 Hispanic: 15 Asian: 6 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

Adding Rockwall County makes Sessions safer.

TX-33 DARKISH BLUE (Entirely in Dallas)

Incumbent: VACANT SEAT

Counties: Dallas

Cities of Note: Dallas

Obama: 67%

McCain: 32%

White: 25 Black: 17 Hispanic: 53 Asian: 4 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic

A new Dallas-based VRA-protected Hispanic seat.

HOUSTON AREA

TX-2 GREEN

Incumbent: Ted Poe (R-Humble)

Counties: Harris, Liberty, Orange, Jasper, Orange, Jefferson (Part)

Cities of Note: Humble, Baytown, Beaumont

Obama: 36%

McCain: 63%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 40-60

White: 68 Black: 15 Hispanic: 13 Asian: 3 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

Poe gets safer by subtracting a chunk of Beaumont and adding Jasper, Newtown, and Orange Counties. The Harris part of the district remains very conservative, so Poe should have no problems here until 2020 redistricting-or a sooner redistricting, if history is a guide.

TX-7 LIGHT GRAY

Incumbent:  VACANT

Counties: Fayette, Harris (Part), Colorado (Part), Fort Bend (Part), Lavaca (Part)

Cities of Note: Houston

Obama: 40%

McCain: 60%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 41-58

White: 70 Black: 8 Hispanic: 14 Asian: 8 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

By splitting remaining territory in Harris, one can make two pretty-safe urban Republican seats based in Houston. A lot of this is Culberson’s old district, but I think he’d run in the new 36th, which contains his home and is one point more Republican. The district might be competitive eventually, but for now it’s safely Republican.

TX-8 LIGHTISH BLUE

Incumbent: Kevin Brady (R-The Woodlands)

Counties: Hardin, Tyler, Polk, San Jacinto, Walker, Grimes, Madison, Leon, Houston, Cherokee, Montgomery (Part), Jefferson (Part)

Cities of Note: Beaumont, Huntsville

Obama: 31%

McCain: 68%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 26-74

White: 75 Black: 13 Hispanic: 9 Asian: 2 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

When the district was drawn in the DeLaymander, it was designed to unseat any East Texas Democrats. Now that it has done so, I can stop wasting so many Republican votes. I split Brady’s base in Montgomery, and I added some Democratic precincts in Beaumont. Still, it’s insanely Republican, and Montgomery should continue to grow, making it even more so.

TX-9 TURQUOISE

Incumbent: Al Green (D-Houston)

Counties: Harris (Part), Fort Bend (Part)

Cities of Note: Houston

Obama: 76%

McCain: 23%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 77-23

White: 17 Black: 37 Hispanic: 34 Asian: 12 Native American: 0 Other: 1

Projected: Safe Democratic

TX-14 ARMY GREEN

Incumbent: Ron Paul (R-Lake Jackson)

Counties: Chambers, Matagorda, Jackson, Calhoun, Brazoria (Part), Harris (Part), Galveston (Part)

Cities of Note: Galveston, Baytown, Texas City, League City, Freeport

Obama: 37%

McCain: 62%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 33-66

White: 59 Black: 11 Hispanic: 27 Asian: 3 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

An urban-suburban-exurban leftovers district, Paul and his nutty views should be safe here.

TX-18 HOUSTON YELLOW

Incumbent: Sheila Jackson-Lee (D-Houston)

Counties: Harris

Cities of Note: Houston

Obama: 79%

McCain: 20%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 22-77

White: 18 Black: 46 Hispanic: 31 Asian: 4 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic

The 18th is another safe black-plurality district in Houston.

TX-22 BROWN

Incumbent: Pete Olson (R-Sugar Land)

Counties: Harris (Part), Fort Bend (Part), Brazoria (Part), Galveston (Part)

Cities of Note: Sugar Land, Pearland, Pasadena

Obama: 39%

McCain: 60%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 41-58

White: 63 Black: 8 Hispanic: 18 Asian: 11 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

The old DeLay seat, it gets smaller, but is still safe for Olson, who beat a great candidate in Lampson in 2008.

TX-29 GREENISH GRAY

Incumbent: Gene Green (D-Houston)

Counties: Harris

Cities of Note: Houston

Obama: 66%

McCain: 33%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 62-38

White: 18 Black: 11 Hispanic: 68 Asian: 2 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic

TX-36 YELLOWY ORANGE

Incumbent: John Culberson (R-Houston)

Counties: Harris

Cities of Note: Houston

Obama: 39

McCain: 60

Old District (Obama-McCain): 41-58 (7th District)

White: 64 Black: 8 Hispanic: 20 Asian: 8 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

See TX-7 for analysis.

AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO

TX-10 PINK

Incumbent: Michael McCaul (R-Austin)

Counties: Lee, Burleson, Washington, Austin, Waller, Travis (Part), Montgomery (Part), Harris (Part)

Cities of Note: Austin, Conroe

Obama: 36%

McCain: 62%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 44-54

White: 72 Black: 9 Hispanic: 15 Asian: 4 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

Seeing how Montgomery County has grown tremendously since 2000, I split it up into two districts to help McCaul. The district loses some precincts in Austin and Harris County. If I were a Republican (I’m not), I’d feel pretty good about McCaul until 2020.

TX-20 BEIGE

Incumbent: Charlie Gonzalez (D-San Antonio)

Counties: Bexar

Cities of Note: San Antonio

Obama: 71%

McCain: 27%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 64-36

White: 14 Black: 7 Hispanic: 77 Asian: 1 Native American: 0 Other: 1

Projected: Safe Democratic

The district gets more Hispanic and more Democratic. Gonzalez should be, and will be, fine.

TX-21 DARK RED

Incumbent: Lamar Smith (R-San Antonio)

Counties: Kendall, Comal, Hays (Part), Travis (Part), Bexar (Part)

Cities of Note: San Antonio, Austin

Obama: 38%

McCain: 61%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 41-58

White: 74 Black: 3 Hispanic: 19 Asian: 4 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

Smith is entrenched and should be fine here. I’d be concerned about Travis County’s booming population down the road, but for now the Travis part is swingy or leans Republican. Safe.

TX-25 PINKISH RED

Incumbent: Lloyd Doggett (D-Austin)

Counties: Travis

Cities of Note: Austin

Obama: 71%

McCain: 27%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 59-40

White: 49 Black: 11 Hispanic: 34 Asian: 5 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic

Now entirely in Austin, Doggett is safe as can be.

TX-28 LIGHT URPLE

Incumbent: Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo)

Counties: La Salle, Frio, Atascosa, Webb (Part), Bexar (Part), Wilson (Part), Guadalupe (Part), Caldwell (Part), Bastrop (Part)

Cities of Note: Laredo, San Antonio, San Marcos, Bastrop

Obama: 53%

McCain: 46%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 56-44

White: 36 Black: 4 Hispanic: 57 Asian: 2 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic

The district changes a lot. It’s a lot more San Antonio heavy, and Cuellar’s home might not be even in the district. Still, it should elect a Hispanic Democrat,

TX-35 PURPLE

Incumbent: Ciro Rodriguez (D-San Antonio)

Counties: Mitchell, Nolan, Sterling, Coke, Runnels, Coleman, Concho, Schleicher, Menard, Sutton, Kimble, Edwards, Real, Kerr, Bandera, Bexar (Part), Guadalupe (Part), Caldwell (Part), Brown (Part)

Cities of Note: San Antonio, Seguin

Obama: 39%

McCain: 60%

White: 58 Black: 7 Hispanic: 31 Asian: 3 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Likely Republican

A new district in the San Antonio area, I combined a strip of San Antonio with Republican-leaning suburbs and parts of rural West Texas. Should be safe, unless Hispanics start voting. Rodriguez lives in the district I think.

FAJITA STRIPS

TX-15 ORANGE

Incumbent: Ruben Hinjosa (D-Mercedes)

Counties: Refugio, Goliad, Bee, Aransas, Jim Wells, Brooks, Hidalgo (Part), Cameron (Part), San Patricio (Part)

Cities of Note: McAllen, Harlingen

Obama: 62%

McCain: 37%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 60-40

White: 17 Black: 1 Hispanic: 81 Asian: 1 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic

Probably now the most Hispanic district in the nation, this would pass VRA muster because there is a new Hispanic district that borders it, the 34th District. McAllen based, it’s pretty similar to today’s 15th district. The new 15th should get incredibly more Democratic over the next decade if trends continue, especially if McAllen continues to grow.

TX-27 BLUEISH GREEN

Incumbent: Solomon Ortiz (D-Corpus Christi)

Counties: Nueces, Kleberg, Kenedy, Willacy, Cameron

Cities of Note: Brownsville, Corpus Christi

Obama: 53%

McCain: 46%

Old District (Obama-McCain):

White: 27 Black: 2 Hispanic: 69 Asian: 2 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Democratic

TX-34 LIGHT GREEN

Incumbent:

Counties: Starr, Zapata, Jim Hogg, Duval, McMullen, Live Oak, Karnes, Gonzales, DeWitt, Victoria, Hidalgo (Part), Wilson (Part) Lavaca (Part), Colorado (Part), Wharton (Part), Fort Bend (Part)

Cities of Note: McAllen, Rosenberg, Victoria

Obama: 49%

McCain: 50%

Old District (Obama-McCain):

White: 27 Black: 3 Hispanic: 69 Asian: 1 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Tossup

A newly-created McAllen-based district, it’s swingy territory. I think it should elect a conservative Hispanic Democrat, but it has a R-leaning bent and should probably would, at first, elect a Republican Hispanic.

EVERYTHING ELSE

TX-16 GREEN

Incumbent: Silvestre Reyes (D-El Paso)

Counties: El Paso (Part)

Cities of Note: El Paso

Obama: 65%

McCain: 34%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 66-33

White: 18 Black: 3 Hispanic: 77 Asian: 2 Native American: 0 Other: 1

Projected: Safe Democratic

No difference really, but it gets smaller. Safe Democratic.

TX-1 DARK BLUE

Incumbent: Louie Gohmert (R-Tyler)

Counties: Smith, Upshur, Gregg, Harrison, Nacogdoches, Shelby, Panola, Angelina, San Augustin, Sabine, Marion (Part)

Cities of Note: Tyler, Longview, Lufkin, Marshall

Obama: 30%

McCain: 69%

Old District (Obama-McCain):

White: 70 Black: 19 Hispanic: 9 Asian: 1 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

Not much has changed. It loses a little land due to population growth. East Texas should keep electing Republicans. Gohmert, as crazy as he is, is safe.

TX-4 RED

Incumbent:  VACANT

Counties: Fannin, Lamar, Red River, Bowie, Cass, Morris, Camp, Titus, Hopkins, Delta, Hunt, Marion (Part), Kaufman (Part), Collin (Part), Dallas (Part)

Cities of Note: Paris, Dallas, Mesquite

Obama: 35%

McCain: 64%

Old District (Obama-McCain):

White: 73 Black: 14 Hispanic: 10 Asian: 3 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

It’s pretty much Ralph Hall’s district, but I couldn’t justify keep Rockwall County in the district; Sessions needed to be made safer. Hall is getting up there in age, and he survived a good teabagging this year in the primary. Anyway, he could move here or another very conservative Republican could run here.

TX-6 DARK TURQUOISE

Incumbent: Joe Barton (R-Ennis)

Counties: Ellis, Navarro, Freestone, Limestone, Falls, Robertson, Brazos, Bell (Part), Milam (Part)

Cities of Note: Ennis, Bryan, Temple, Killeen

Obama: 36%

McCain: 63%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 40-60

White: 65 Black: 15 Hispanic: 16 Asian: 4 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

I make no apologies (heh) to Barton for taking out Arlington, as he gets an exurban and pretty safe new district. However, Edwards might consider taking a shot at him, as Temple and Bryan are now in the district. Still, I would feel good about Barton’s chances.

TX-19  LIGHT GREEN

Incumbent: Randy Neugebauer (R-Lubbock), Chet Edwards (D-Waco)

Counties: Lubbock, Crosby, Motley, Dickens, King, Stonewall, Haskell, Throckmorton, Young, Erath, Comanche, Bosque, McLennan, Hamilton (Part), Palo Pinto (Part), Hamilton (Part), Bell (Part)

Cities of Note: Lubbock, Waco

Obama: 33%

McCain: 66%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 27-72

White: 66 Black: 10 Hispanic: 20 Asian: 2 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Leans Republican

This district will be a Lubbock vs. Waco district, with a spaghetti strange of rural West Texas in between. Edwards would have to get acquainted with a new district in inhospitable West Texas. Edge to “It’s a Baby Killer.”

TX-13 BEIGE

Incumbent: Mac Thornberry (R-Clarendon)

Counties: A lot

Cities of Note: Wichita Falls, Amarillo, Denison

Obama:

McCain:

Old District (Obama-McCain): 23-76

White: Black: Hispanic: Asian: Native American: Other:

Projected:

TX-11 LIGHT ARMY GREEN

Incumbent: Mike Conaway (R-Midland)

Counties: A lot

Cities of Note: Midland, Abilene, Amarillo

Obama: 22

McCain: 77

Old District (Obama-McCain): 24-75

White: Black: Hispanic: Asian: Native American: Other:

Projected: Safe Republican

I think this becomes the safest GOP seat in the country…

TX-23 LIGHT BLUE

Incumbent: OPEN SEAT

Counties: Medina, Uvalde, Dimmit, Zavala, Maverick, Kinney, Val Verde, Terrell, Brewster, Presidio, Jeff Davis, Culberson, Hudspeth, Reeves, Loving, Winkler, Ector, Howard, Glasscock, Ward, Crane, Upton, Reagan, Tom Green, Irion, Crockett, El Paso (Part), Webb (Part), Andrews (Part)

Cities of Note: El Paso, Laredo, San Angelo, Odessa

Obama: 42%

McCain: 57%

Old District (Obama-McCain):

White: 36 Black: 3 Hispanic: 60 Asian: 1 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Likely Republican

A VRA-protected seat, it’s more Hispanic than the current 23rd. It’s way more Republican now, a net of 18 points more. Ciro Rodriguez doesn’t live here anymore, and the district is based in three different population centers: San Angelo, Odessa, and Northern Laredo.  A Blue Dog Hispanic could win here eventually, as Hispanics in the area might, you know, vote eventually. This district is likely going to go to an Hispanic Republican, but down the road, the huge 23rd might flip.

TX-31 LIGHT MUSTARD YELLOW

Incumbent: John Carter (R-Round Rock)

Counties: Williamson, Burnett, Blanco, Gillespie, Llano, Mason, San Saba, McCulloch, Mills, Lampasas, Coryell, Hamilton (Part), Hamilton (Part), Milam (Part)

Cities of Note: Round Rock, Cedar Park, Georgetown

Obama: 36%

McCain: 62%

Old District (Obama-McCain): 41-57

White: 75 Black: 6 Hispanic: 15 Asian: 3 Native American: 0 Other: 0

Projected: Safe Republican

Again, this redistricting took countless hours. I kinda dared myself to try it out. I think it turned out pretty well…

Some thoughts: the DeLaymander was absolutely brilliant–in a nefarious sort of way. Just looking at the districts though, it’s almost inevitable that some districts start flipping our way. I think I used West Texas more effectively than it is now. I’ll add more later.

If you post or lurk here, you must be the political junkiest of the junkiest. That’s why you’ve probably been looking forward to Gerrymandering, a documentary about redistricting directed by filmmaker Jeff Reichert.

I don’t pretend to be a movie aficionado. Not at all. Hopefully this review will be somewhat coherent 🙂

I’ve seen a lot of users here posting that they were looking forward to seeing the film. I, as an avid user of the time-draining DRA, couldn’t wait to see it. Fortunately, I got a chance to witness the film at the Tribeca Film Festival this weekend. My thoughts about the documentary are below the jump.

I came into the movie with high expectations because I’ve done too much research on the issue of gerrymandering and redistricting over the past few months. I also was expecting many issues to be touched upon that one would expect, like partisan motivations for gerrymandering and the Voting Rights Act.

I discuss specifically the movie in the block quote, so please skip if you want to go into the movie without knowing anything about Reichert’s style.

At the beginning of his documentary, Reichert employed animation of lines carving up states while explaining the definition of gerrymandering succinctly, a definition that anyone could easily understand. I would be content if all people took away from this movie was the definition he gave–everyone should know what gerrymandering is!!

Obviously, he went beyond it. The movie contained many interviews from activists, lawmakers, and pundits that gave their own anecdote about the issue. Personally, I felt that one of the most effective parts was the (brief) interview he got with Fmr. Rep. Martin Frost; Frost detailed exactly how he was affected by the DeLaymander, and the graphics that showed it firsthand were extremely effective.

Reichert covered pretty much everything that is pertinent to the redistricting process today: partisan motivations; racial motivations and the VRA; independent commissions; prison counting; Texas’ mid-decade redistricting; incumbent homes, etc.

I feel that people who constantly review and create maps here at SSP and know a lot about the process will know almost all of the information provided in the film. However, I thought it was cool to see personal stories behind the data we analyze here. There was one story from a non-establishment Brooklyn Democrat who had his house removed from a district so that he couldn’t re-challenge an entrenched incumbent in the ensuing election. The lawmaker, who called the process “gangsta,” now is an assemblyman.

The documentary spent a lot of time with background from the campaign on Prop 11, which you may know as the thing that will create independent commissions to deal with California redistricting. I felt as though the film didn’t do enough to explain how that would affect the state, and I also felt that it was kind of boring at times to keep hearing about the campaign behind it. Not that this was that much of a bother; in fact, it was still interesting, but the time could have been better spent explaining the background behind the VRA or other history.

I’m not going to talk more about the film, as I don’t want to give anything more away. The movie was extremely successful in teaching an important, yet under appreciated topic. It was easy to understand and follow, while it explored the ways that gerrymandering can hurt our democracy. Undoubtedly, the movie was extremely biased against legislators drawing districts, but the movie is still an extremely important teaching tool. Reichert is knowledgeable about the issues–he took questions from the audience after the movie and I was extremely impressed that he knew all of the factual answers. The only problems I had were that the VRA wasn’t explained enough, the Prop 11 campaign part was too long, and the prison-counting part was way too short.

All in all, though, the movie is extremely important for any citizen of this country. I highly recommend it for anybody in the SSP community. Also, it was nice to hear Ed Rollins call us–the people into reconfiguring districts–“nerds.” Rollins also said our work was important though.

Thanks and I hope that was coherent…

In today's daily digest, it was posted that Team Blue and the GOP are trying to hammer out a compromise that would effectively split Texas' four new congressional districts: two for Democrats and two for Republicans. (The article can be found here.)

For a little while, I've been working on a diary examining whether the VRA helps or hurts Team Blue, specifically in the South. My first diary was going to be about Texas, specifically the Metroplex and the near-the-border districts. So, while that diary might still happen, I think it would be interesting to use Dave's Redistricting App to examine how this proposed compromise would affect the Texas Congressional delegation. 

DISCLAIMER: All districts are drawn as a Republican gerrymander, keeping with VRA restrictions. Also, incumbent homes are largely ignored.

As many of you know, Texas is supposed to gain four congressional seats from the upcoming Census. If they only gain three, then this is all moot, but let's assume that they'll gain four.

Over the past four years, the Dallas-Ft. Worth Metroplex has experienced rapid population growth, specifically Hispanic population growth. In fact, the MSA grew by almost exactly 25% since the 2000 census–a little more than one million people. Therefore, the area should gain a district an a half.

As it stands right now, there are eight districts that occupy part of Tarrant County (Ft. Worth, Arlington) or Dallas County: seven are GOP seats and one is occupied by Eddie Bernice Johnson, who represents a minority-majority district that sucks up a whole lot of Democratic votes.

After the DeLaymander, DavidNYC posted a good explanation of the VRA that would affect any redistricting process: 

But #3 is, perversely, what gets us. The Voting Rights Act is a very complex piece of legislation, and the litigation interpreting it is very, very hard to get a handle on. But at its core, the VRA says that redistricters must try to maximize the number of "majority-minority" districts – ie, districts where cohesive minorities constitute a sufficiently large bloc such that this group's will is likely to prevail at election time. 

This means that Texas redistrict-ers must maximize the majority-minority districts in the Metroplex. After the 2010 census, if the GOP has control over of the Senate, the House, and the governor’s mansion (which is probable, but not a foregone conclusion), they must create two majority-minority districts, something like this:

The turquoise and the yellow snake-like districts in Ft. Worth and Dallas are the minority-majority districts.

Yellow District:

Obama: 80%

McCain: 20%

White: 27%

Black: 51%

Hispanic: 18%

Turquoise District:

Obama: 62%

McCain: 37%

White: 27%

Black: 9%

Hispanic: 61%

The rest of the districts all had 45% or less for Obama.

A black majority and a Hispanic majority district should come out of this process. The current 30th (seen below) has the 2000 Census demographics:

White: 36.6%

Black: 41.8%

Hispanic: 34.8%

There’s no way that could pass VRA muster right now. So, from the two new VRA districts in the Metroplex, Democrats automatically gain a safe seat without any deal.

Now, we explore Houston, where Hispanic growth has occurred over the past ten years. To accommodate the VRA, a new Hispanic district must be drawn. Further, both black plurality districts must remain. It should look something like this:

I used MattTX2’s bipartisan compromise as inspiration for the boundaries. However, my pink Hispanic district is much less Democratic. Here are the results:

Pink District:

Obama: 52%

McCain 47%

White: 35%

Black: 8%

Hispanic: 51%

Blue District:

Obama: 59%

McCain: 41%

White: 27%

Black: 12%

Hispanic: 58%

Beige District:

Obama: 79%

McCain: 21%

White: 17%

Black: 47%

Hispanic: 24%

Army Green District (Northern District)

Obama: 65%

McCain: 35%

White: 34%

Black: 38%

Hispanic: 22%

Now, the pink district is barely a Hispanic majority district, so it could be argued that there are not enough voting age Hispanics to make it a VRA-protected districts (I’ll get to that later). So, the district might need to change shapes and might need to add more Hispanic precincts (making it more Democratic). I would think that this would be a safe Democratic seat, so a Hispanic Dem would win here. Without the deal, we just picked up two seats.

Here’s where it gets complicated:

Southern Texas. Let’s ignore the El Paso seat because it’s a safe Dem seat anyway. Let’s also ignore the yellow suburban San Antonio seat because it’s safely Republican and not completely drawn (and Lamar Smith’s). Here, we have six VRA-protected Hispanic seats. They cannot be packed along the border (no McAllen-only district) because that would put too many Hispanics in one district, which was ruled unconstitutional after the DeLaymander.

Let’s go left to right.

PURPLE DISTRICT

Obama: 47%

McCain: 52%

White: 37%

Black: 3%

Hispanic: 58%

When Bonilla was the congressman for this district, it was R+14. After the DeLaymander, the district was ruled unconstitutional because it didn’t have enough Hispanics of voting age. Well, this district is 58% Hispanic now, compared to Ciro Rodriguez’s current district, which has 55%. So I think this would pass muster. This is where the GOP can screw everything up (and open a whole big can of worms). They can draw this district to elect a Hispanic Republican, but they will be open to lawsuits as it takes in heavily conservative white suburban parts–but, hey, it’s a gerrymander! We can still hold this seat, but it gets harder.

Red District

Obama: 54%

McCain: 45%

White: 33%

Black: 7%

Hispanic: 57%

This would be frustrating for Dems, as Cuellar now has to enter San Antonio. Still, this is a safe Dem district.

Green District

Obama: 50%

McCain: 50%

White: 27%

Black: 3%

Hispanic: 69%

A newly-created district, we would be competitive, but I think it would be hard. However, with changing demographics, I think this is winnable very soon.

The District With Brooks County (sorry, I don’t know what color that is)

Obama: 61%

McCain: 38%

White: 18%

Black: 1%

Hispanic: 80%

Corpus Christi District

Obama: 52%

McCain: 47%

White: 28%

Black: 3%

Hispanic: 67%

San Antonio Blue District

Obama: 66%

McCain: 33%

White: 19%

Black: 5%

Hispanic: 74%

Here are some more close ups:

What this means is that the Purple and Green districts would become ultra competitive (and lean Republican). Still, the demographics changes could eventually lead to a Dem flip.

Conclusion:

Even without such a deal, we will likely gain two seats due to the VRA anyway. In addition, one of the other added seats is a Hispanic majority seat in Southern Texas that would be a tossup.

Since the Dems have a little leverage (a possible gubernatorial win or a possible takeover of the House), they could push to take the two of the newly-drawn districts Dallas and Houston districts (which they’ll get anyway), protect Edwards, and draw all of the Southern districts. I think that would probably be the best.

And, lastly, this took forever!!! So please comment and tell me what you think.

Hello all. I’m very excited to participate in my first contest here at SSP. Not only that, I’m extremely excited to deal with my home state, New York. For you, I’ve redistricted New York, 27-1. I’ve seen some entries that involve a 28-0 gerrymander, which would be hypothetically nice, but probably unfeasible. To strengthen all incumbents, I’ve given every Democrat a 55% or higher Obama district, which translates to at least a D+2 or D+3 PVI for each one.  Right now, several Democratic incumbents occupy Republican PVI districts (Arcuri, Massa, Murphy, Hall, and Owens). That will change under my plan. However, unlike previous entries, I have to ax one of the districts upstate to make sure that I have a 27-1 gerrymander, and, unfortunately for the new guys, Murphy’s old district is eliminated, forcing him to enter a primary with Bill Owens. I don’t really care who wins that one, though I recognize that Murphy is a very good fundraiser and probably would win. All VRA districts are kept in tact, with Velazquez’s becoming Hispanic majority (instead of plurality).  In the future, I foresee that there will be another Hispanic majority district, mostly based in Crowley’s present district. I also want to see a majority Asian district eventually, though I realize that many Asian communities in New York have different interests.

I know that there is a strategic advantage to sending in your map later so that nobody gets any ideas, but I think it’s in all of our best interests to build the best map as possible. If you haven’t made your map yet, feel free to use some of my ideas. If you have made your map, then post it!

Here’s a summary of what I did:

-Created 27 likely/safe Democratic seats

-Created one über safe Republican district to protect Massa, Arcuri, Owens/Murphy, and, to some extent, Hinchey and Maffei.

-Kept districts relatively compact, with only four New York City/suburban districts (there are only two right now, so not much of a difference)

-Kept all cities in one district if possible

-Obeyed the VRA

-Kept populations within the allocated margins

-Made every Democratic seat relatively easy to represent (no Binghamton to Buffalo drives for Massa)

There are 3,086 people that are unaccounted for. I just couldn’t find the missing precincts; I assume they’re in New York City, though, as the unaccounted voters voted for Obama by something like 90-10. I don’t think it makes much of a difference in the larger picture, though. Also, I’m trying to figure out a way to send it to jeffmd through e-mail, as my first two tries didn’t work.

One last thing: I connect a few New York City districts with bridges-and, in one case, a ferry. I will note that in my write-up. Please enjoy!

Clean Map:

With Counties:

Long Island:

District 1 – BLUE

Incumbent: Tim Bishop (D)

Area: Part of Suffolk County (Islip, Brookhaven, Southampton)

Population: 669,859

Obama: 55%

McCain: 45%

Old District: Obama 51% McCain 48%; Kerry 49% Bush 49%

White: White: 77% Black: 6% Native: 0% Asian: 2% Hispanic: 12% Other: 2%

Notes: Bishop keeps his base in the Hamptons, while receives favorable territory in Brookhaven and Islip. These added points to his previous district-of which Obama only received about 51% of the vote-should keep Bishop safe.

District 2 – DARK GREEN

Incumbent: Steve Israel (D)

Area: Part of Suffolk County (Huntington)/Part of Nassau County

Population: 700,704

Obama: 55%

McCain: 45%

Old District: 56% McCain 43%; Kerry 53% Bush 45%

White: 75% Black: 9% Native: 0% Asian: 3% Hispanic: 10% Other: 2%

Notes: The newly minted Long Island district takes in much of Israel’s and Bishop’s old district in Eastern Suffolk. The district splits Huntington, which is Israel’s base, so Israel can elect to run in either the 2nd or the 3rd district.

District 3 – PURPLE

Incumbent:

Area: Part of Nassau County (Glen Cove)/Part of Suffolk County (Huntington)/Part of Bronx County (The Bronx)

Population: 700,178

Obama: 55%

McCain: 45%

Old District: Obama 47% McCain 52%; Kerry 47% Bush 52%

White: 73% Black: 13% Native: 0% Asian: 3% Hispanic: 9% Other: 1%

Notes: This is where King is screwed. His base in Southern Nassau is split into three districts, the 3rd, the 4th, and the 5th. I had to add part of the Bronx to strengthen the district (and for population purposes). King would have to sweep the Nassau portions to win, and I don’t think he could. Granted, this district is less Democratic than the 4th and the 5th, but I think the Democratic lean ultimately propels a Democrat to victory. Israel could also run in the neighboring 2nd, as Huntington is split between the two districts.

As for the Bronx connection, the representative can take the Throgs Neck Bridge from Queens. Though the bridge doesn’t connect the Long Island parts to the Bronx part, it will make representing both sections very manageable.

District 4 – RED

Incumbent: Carolyn McCarthy (D)/Peter King (R)

Area: Part of Nassau County (Long Beach)/Part of Queens County (Queens)

Population: 700,877

Obama: 57%

McCain: 43%

Old District: Obama 58% McCain 41%; Kerry 55% Bush 41%

White: White: 64% Black: 15% Native: 0% Asian: 8% Hispanic: 10% Other: 3%

Notes: This district takes in most of King’s base, (and his home), but tethers it to Queens to make this district pretty safe for McCarthy. Also of note, I had to add some black-majority precincts to make McCarthy safe, so Meeks has to go Brooklyn to make sure his district is VRA. Also, here is a short arm in the middle of Nassau County to take McCarthy’s home in Mineola.

District 5 – YELLOW

Incumbent: Gary Ackerman (D)

Area: Part of Nassau County/Part of Queens County (Queens)

Population: 700,542

Obama: 58%

McCain: 42%

Old District: Obama 63% McCain 36%; Obama 63% McCain 36%

White: 61% Black: 7% Native: 0% Asian: 18% Hispanic: 12% Other: 2%

Notes: Takes in Nassau, Queens along with parts of King’s base. He should continue to do fine here.

District 6 – DARK GREENISH BLUE

Incumbent: Gregory Meeks (D)

Area: Queens County (Queens)/Kings County (Brooklyn)

Population: 699,692

Obama: 87%

McCain: 13%

Old District: Obama 89% McCain 11%; Kerry 84% Bush 15%

White: 17% Black: 50% Native: 0% Asian: 9% Hispanic: 17% Other: 7%

Notes: Remains a VRA-protected district in Queens, but to help McCarthy, it is water-continuous to take in black-majority precincts in Brooklyn. Takes in some icky old Weiner precincts. Meeks can travel the Shore Parkway to go Brooklyn to his other constituents. Also has the most “Other” raced-people in the state (45,528). I have no idea what that means.

District 7 – GRAY

Incumbent: Joseph Crowley (D)

Area: Part of Bronx County (Bronx)/Part of Queens County (Queens)

Population: 700,514

Obama: 80%

McCain: 20%

Old District: Obama 79% McCain 20%: Kerry 74% Bush 24%

White: 29% Black: 19% Native: 0% Asian: 8% Hispanic: 40% Other: 4%

Notes: I didn’t change much, but now the district is even more Hispanic. Crowley would win here, and I doubt he would get a primary. However, a Hispanic Bronx Democrat should win here after he retires. He can travel on Route 678.

District 8 – DARK PURPLE

Incumbent: Jerrold Nadler (D)

Area: Part of New York County (Manhattan)/Part of Kings County (Brooklyn)

Population: 700,149

Obama: 76%

McCain: 23%

Old District: Obama 74% McCain 25%: Kerry 72% Bush 27%

White: 59% Black: 7% Native: 0% Asian: 17% Hispanic: 14% Other: 3%

Notes: Nadler loses downtown, but retains his base on the Upper West Side. He also takes in heavily Republican areas of Brooklyn, but that area is superfluous as his Manhattan parts are ridiculously Democratic. I also gave him Chinatown.

District 9 – LIGHT TURQUOISE

Incumbent: Anthony Weiner (D)

Area: Part of Kings County (Brooklyn)/Part of Queens County (Queens)

Population: 699,891

Obama: 61%

McCain: 38%

Old District: Obama 55% McCain 44%; Kerry 56% Bush 44%

White: 50% Black: 6% Native: 0% Asian: 16% Hispanic: 22% Other: 5%

Notes: I had to shore up this district, even though Weiner would be fine otherwise. It’s just that Weiner will probably run for another office some day (especially mayor), so I wanted to make sure that a moderate (probably Jewish) Republican couldn’t win here. It’s pretty gerrymandered to be a slightly majority white district. Anyway, his base is here and Weiner should win by a large margin.

District 10 – DARK PINK

Incumbent: Edolphus Towns (D)

Area: Part of Kings County (Brooklyn)

Population: 699,919

Obama: 85%

McCain: 15%

Old District: Obama 91% McCain 9%; Kerry 86% Bush 13%

White: 22% Black: 52% Native: 0% Asian: 5% Hispanic: 18% Other: 23%

Notes: Pretty much the same Brooklyn-based VRA-protected district, but it takes in icky some icky Brooklyn precincts to help Weiner.

District 11 – GREEN

Incumbent: Yvette Clarke (D)

Area: Part of Kings County (Brooklyn)

Population: 700,196

Obama: 84%

McCain: 16%

Old District: Obama 90% McCain 9%; Kerry 86% Bush 13%

White: 25% Black: 54% Native: 0% Asian: 7% Hispanic: 11% Other: 4%

Notes: Same deal as District 10.

District 12 – MEDIUM BLUE

Incumbent: Nydia Velazquez (D)

Area: Part of Kings County (Brooklyn)/Part of Queens County (Queens)

Population: 700,735

Obama: 86%

McCain: 13%

Old District: Obama 86% McCain 13%; Kerry 80% Bush 19%

White: 23% Black: 11% Native: 0% Asian: 11% Hispanic: 51% Other: 3%

Notes: A VRA-protected Hispanic district, Velazquez sheds Manhattan and takes in the Hispanic parts of Brooklyn and Queens. The district gets a somewhat big makeover to make it Hispanic-majority, but I’m sure there will be no complaints for anyone.

District 13 – TEAL

Incumbent: Michael McMahon (D)

Area: All of Richmond County (Staten Island)/Part of New York County (Manhattan)

Population: 700,676

Obama: 62%

McCain: 37%

Old District: Obama 49% McCain 51%; Kerry 45% Bush 55%

White: White: 71% Black: 8% Native: 0% Asian: 8% Hispanic: 11% Other: 2%

Notes: My Staten Island-based district is now tethered to downtown Manhattan to make the district a safe Democratic district.

District 14 DARK GREEN

Incumbent: Carolyn Maloney (D)

Area: Part of New York County (Manhattan)/Part of Kings County (Brooklyn)/Part of Queens County (Queens)

Population: 699,854

Obama: 80%

McCain: 19%

Old District: Obama 78% McCain 21%; Kerry 74% Bush 25%

White: 64% Black: 8% Native: 0% Asian: 8% Hispanic: 18% Other: 3%

Notes: My hometown district, Maloney gains parts of Brooklyn to enable Velazquez to have a Hispanic-majority district. Goes all the way up to the limits of the Upper East Side on 96th Street.

District 15 – ORANGE

Incumbent: Charlie Rangel (D)

Area: Part of New York County (Manhattan)/Part of Queens County (Queens)

Population: 700,198

Obama: 91%

McCain: 8%

Old District: Obama 93% McCain 6%; Kerry 90% Bush 9%

White: 17% Black: 27% Native: 0% Asian: 6% Hispanic: 47% Other: 3%

Notes: Rangel’s district is plurality Hispanic (and almost majority Hispanic). I would bet he wouldn’t like this district, as he could be primaried by an ambitious Hispanic legislator who would target him on ethics issues. Otherwise, it loses all parts of the Upper West Side, which never really made sense for him.

District 16 – LIGHT GREEN

Incumbent: Jose Serrano (D)

Area: Part of Bronx County (Bronx)

Population: 700,500

Obama: 95%

McCain: 5%

Old District: Obama 95% McCain 5%; Kerry 89% Bush 10%

White: 3% Black: 33% Native: 0% Asian: 2% Hispanic: 60% Other: 2%

Notes: The VRA-protected South Bronx district makes no substantive changes. This district would undoubtedly have the fewest white people in the country.

Suburbs:

District 17 – DARK BLUE

Incumbent:  Eliot Engel (D)

Area: Part of Bronx County (Bronx)/Part of Westchester County (Yonkers)/Part of Rockland County/Part of Orange County

Population: 700,056

Obama: 60%

McCain: 40%

Old District: Obama 72% McCain 28%; Kerry 67% Bush 33%

White: 61% Black: 17% Native: 0% Asian: 4% Hispanic: 16% Other: 3%

Notes: A kind of similar district to Engel’s current, the district takes in Mount Vernon, parts of Rockland, parts of Orange, and all of Yonkers. His home in the Bronx remains for a solid (but less diverse) Democratic district.

District 18 – LIGHT YELLOW

Incumbent: Nita Lowey (D)

Area: Part of Bronx County (Bronx)/Part of Westchester County (Rye, New Rochelle, Part of Peekskill)/Part of Putnam County/Part of Orange County/Part of Sullivan County/Part of Delaware County

Population: 699,983

Obama: 58%

McCain: 41%

Old District: Obama 62% McCain 38%; Kerry 58% Bush 42%

White: 76% Black: 7% Native: 0% Asian: 4% Hispanic: 11% Other: 2%

Notes: This district is pretty ugly, but it’s necessary to shore up Hall and Hinchey. It has the preexisting Westchester flavor, but it moves upstate to take in nasty Republican-leaning areas. It’s so ugly that Orange County is represented by four congresscritters. Anyway, Lowey should do well here, as her home base in Rye stays.

District 19 – WESTERN NEW YORK GREEN

Incumbent: Eric Massa (D)

Area: Part of Chemung County (Elmira)/All of Steuben County/All of Allegany County/All of Cattaraugus County/All of Chautauqua County/Part of Erie County (Buffalo)

Population: 700,415

Obama: 55%

McCain: 44%

Old District: Obama 48% McCain 50%; Kerry 42% Bush 56% (former 29th)

White: 84% Black: 11% Native: 1% Asian: 1% Hispanic: 2% Other: 1%

Notes: This is by far my favorite district that I drew. Massa takes in three of the heavily Republican Southern Tier counties (Cattaraugus, Allegany, and Steuben), while taking in moderate Chautauqua. It is also tethered to Buffalo, though, which shifts the district up in the Obama column tremendously. On the eastern side, the Democratic-leaning Elmira is taken in. This district should be safe for Massa.

District 20 – BEIGE

Incumbent: Maurice Hinchey (D)

Area: Part of Otsego County/Part of Montgomery County/Part of Schenectady County (Schenectady)/Part of Schoharie County/Part of Delaware County/All of Greene County/All of Ulster County/Part of Sullivan County/Part of Rockland County/Part of Dutchess County (Poughkeepsie)/Part of Shanango County

Population: 699,767

Obama: 56%

McCain: 42%

Old District: Obama 59% McCain 39%; Kerry 54% Bush 45% (Current 22nd)

White: 81% Black: 8% Native: 0% Asian: 2% Hispanic: 7% Other: 2%

Notes: Shoring up Hinchey while losing Ithaca and Binghamton was a struggle, yet I think I did well. The district takes in the strongly-Dem precincts in Rockland County, going up through Sullivan, taking up some of the rest of the Capital Region, including Democratic Schenectady City. His base in Ulster is still there, though, and should propel Hinchey or whatever succeeding Democrat to win.

District 21 – DARK RED

Incumbent: John Hall (D)

Area: Part of Westchester County (White Plains, Part of Peekskill)/Part of Putnam County/Part of Orange County (Newburgh)/Part of Dutchess County/All of Columbia County

Population: 700,291

Obama: 56%

McCain: 43%

Old District: Obama 51% McCain 48%; Kerry 45% Bush 54% (Current 19th)

White: 78% Black: 8% Native: 0% Asian: 2% Hispanic: 10% Other: 2%

Notes: Hall’s district gets quite the makeover, but now is solidly his. He moves upstate a little, but Dover Plains is still here. He takes in heavily Democratic White Plains in Westchester.

District 22 – BROWN

Incumbent: Paul Tonko (D)

Area: Part of Fulton County/Part of Schenectady County All of Albany County (Albany)Part of Rensselaer County/Part of Saratoga County/Part of Schoharie County

Population: 700,675

Obama: 56%

McCain: 43%

Old District: Obama 58% McCain 40%; Kerry 55% Bush 43% (Current 21st)

White: 90% Black: 5% Native: 0% Asian: 2% Hispanic: 2% Other: 1%

Notes: The Albany-based district is not as strongly Democratic as it once was, but it remains safe territory for Tonko. Schenectady is lost, as is Troy.

District 23 – UPSTATE LIGHT BLUE

Incumbent: Bill Owens (D)/Scott Murphy (D)

Area: Part of Saratoga County (Saratoga Springs)/All of Washington County/All of Essex County/All of Warren County/All of Clinton County/All of Franklin County/All of St. Lawrence County/All of Jefferson County/Part of Lewis County/Part of Oswego County/Part of Oneida County/Part of Renssalaer County (Troy)

Population: 700,814

Obama: 55%

McCain: 43%

Old District: Obama 52% McCain 47%; Kerry 47% Bush 51%

White: 92% Black: 3% Native: 0% Asian: 1% Hispanic: 2% Other: 1%

Notes: I’m tired of Blue Dogs, so I really don’t care what happens to Murphy in this district. I had to axe on upstate district, so I chose Murphy’s and drew him into this one. Here, which now has a D PVI, takes in a lot of old McHugh-territory, while shedding Lewis and Hamilton counties. Also, Saratoga Springs and Troy are added, helping boost the district by a few percentage points. The district should be fine for whoever makes it out of the primary.

District 24 – SYRACUSE PURPLE

Incumbent: Dan Maffei (D)

Area: Part of Monroe County/All of Wayne County/Part of Ontario County/Part of Cayuga County/Part of Onondaga County (Syracuse)/Part of Oswego County/Part of Oneida County

Population: 700,260

Obama: 56%

McCain: 43%

Old District: Obama 56% McCain 43%; Kerry 50% Bush 48% (Current 25th)

White: 87% Black: 6% Native: 0% Asian: 2% Hispanic: 2% Other: 2%

Notes: Maffei’s district remains the same in principle with its Syracuse base.

District 25 – ROCHESTER PINK

Incumbent: Louise Slaughter (D)

Area: Part of Monroe County (Rochester)/Part of Livingston County (Geneseo)/Part of Ontario County/Part of Yates County

Population: 700,187

Obama: 59%

McCain: 40%

Old District: Obama 68% McCain 30%; Kerry 63% Bush 36% (Current 28th)

White: 78% Black: 13% Native: 0% Asian: 2% Hispanic: 5% Other: 2%

Notes: A Monroe-centric district, Slaughter also absorbs Geneseo in Livingston, most of Ontario County, and the Obama-won precincts in Yates. Her district sheds a lot of Democratic votes (all in Buffalo), but she-or any other Rochester Democrat-would do well here. A bonus: no more earmuffs district.

District 26 – UPSTATE GRAY

Incumbent: Chris Lee (R)

Area: Part of Niagara County/Part of Erie County/All of Orleans County/All of Wyoming County/All of Genesee County/Part of Livingston County/Part of Ontario County/Part of Yates County/Part of Schuyler County/Part of Chemung County/All of Tioga County/Part of Broome County/Part of Chenango County/Part of Otsego County/Part of Oneida County/All of Herkimer County/All of Hamilton County/Part of Fulton County/Part of Montgomery County

Population: 700,225

Obama: 42%

McCain: 57%

Old District: Obama 46% McCain 52%; Kerry 43% Bush 55%

White: 95% Black: 2% Native: 0% Asian: 0% Hispanic: 2% Other: 1%

Notes: Clearly drawn to take every upstate Republican precinct, this district is beyond safe for Lee. I believe that Obama lost every single precinct in this county, except for two in lower Broome! The district is reminiscent of jeffmd’s earlier redistricting, but I do think that this is the way to shore up Democrats all across the state. Dems could hypothetically run a Blue Dog here, but that’s probably a waste of money, as the overall partisan bent strongly favors Republicans and the district is in the Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, and Capital Region media markets.

District 27 – BUFFALO LIGHT GREEN

Incumbent: Brian Higgins (D)

Area: Part of Erie County (Buffalo, Lackawanna)/Part of Niagara County (North Tonawanda, Lockport, Niagara Falls)

Population: 700,130

Obama: 56%

McCain: 43%

Old District: Obama 54% McCain 44%; Kerry 53% Bush 45%

White: 85% Black: 8% Native: 0% Asian: 2% Hispanic: 4% Other: 1%

Notes: This Buffalo-based district does not change much partisan-wise, but it shifts up to take Niagara Falls.

District 28 – MID-STATE PINK

Incumbent: Michael Arcuri (D)

Area: Part of Oneida County (Rome, Utica)/All of Madison County (Oneida)/Part of Onondaga County/Part of Cayuga County (Auburn)/All of Seneca County/All of Tompkins County (Ithaca)/All of Cortland County/Part of Broome County (Binghamton)/Part of Schuyler County/Part of Lewis County

Population: 699,838

Obama: 55%

McCain: 44%

Old District: Obama 50% McCain 48%; Kerry 47% Bush 53% (Current 24th)

White: 90% Black: 4% Native: 0% Asian: 2% Hispanic: 2% Other: 1%

Notes: Arcuri sheds a lot of the Republican precincts in Oneida, while retains his base in Utica. Further, he loses Herkimer and Chenango, while taking in Ithaca and Binghamton. The distict also takes in Auburn and the southern suburbs of Syracuse. The PVI is now in the D territory, and Arcuri should be fine from now on-though, he might consider leaving the Blue Dogs as votes in Tompkins might want a primary.