Author: plf515

Previous diaries

Summary:

 KY has 6 reps: 4 R, 2 D

 LA has 7 reps: 6 R, 1 D

 ME has 2 reps: Both D

Possibly vulnerable:

 KY-02 (R) (just a bit)

 LA-02 (R) VERY vulnerable.

Sources:

House vote in 2008 from WaPo

VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)

Race Tracker

Obama vote by CD from Swing State

National Atlas for maps

and my previous diaries.

District: KY-01

Location Southwestern KY, bordering IN, IL, MO and TN. map

Cook PVI R + 15

Representative Ed Whitfeld (R)

VoteView 286

First elected 1994

2008 margin 64-36 over Heather Ryan

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin 67-33

Obama margin 37-62

Bush margin 2004 63-36

Current opponents

Demographics  11th most rural (63.5%), 29th lowest income (median = $30K), 58th fewest Latinos (1.5%)

Assessment  Long shot

District: KY-02

Location Central KY, bordering IN. map

Cook PVI R + 15

Representative Brett Guthrie (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 322.5

First elected  1994

2008 margin 53-47 over David Boswell

2006 margin 55-45

2004 margin 68-32

Obama margin 38-61

Bush margin 2004 65-34

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 37th most rural (52.8%), 61st most Republican on Cook PVI, 70th most Whites (90.6%)

Assessment  Guthrie ran well behind McCain, not a good sign.  He may be a little bit vulnerable.

District: KY-03

Location Louisville and suburbs, bordering INmap

Cook PVI D + 2

Representative John Yarmuth (D)

VoteView 132.5

First elected  2006

2008 margin 59-41 over Anne Northup

2006 margin 51-48

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 56-42

Bush margin 2004 51-49

Current opponents  None confirmed.

Demographics  Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Safe

District: KY-04

Location Northern KY, bordering IN, OH, and a tiny bit of WV map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative Geoff Davis (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 322.5

First elected  2004

2008 margin 63-37 over Michael Kelly

2006 margin 52-43

2004 margin 54-44

Obama margin 38-60

Bush margin 2004 63-36

Current opponents John Waltz (looks quite progressive)

Demographics  26th fewest Latinos (1.1%), 14th most Whites (95.1%)

Assessment Long shot

District: KY-05

Location Southeastern KY, bordering VA, WV, and TN map

Cook PVI R + 16

Representative Harold Rogers (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 321

First elected  1980

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin 74-26

2004 margin Unopposed

Obama margin 31-67

Bush margin 2004 61-39

Current opponents Jim Holbert

Demographics  An unusual district.  The most rural (78.7%), 2nd lowest income (median income = $22K) (only NY16 is lower), most White (97.1%), 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%), and 7th fewest Latinos (0.7%).

Assessment  Long shot

District: KY-06

Location Central KY, including Lexington map

Cook PVI R + 9

Representative Ben Chandler (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 211

First elected  2004

2008 margin 65-35 over John Larson

2006 margin 85-15 (vs. libertarian)

2004 margin 59-40

Obama margin 43-55

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Current opponents Matt Lockett

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Safe

District: LA-01

Location Northeastern part of the southern part of LA, bordering MS and Lake Pontchartrain, including Metarie map

Cook PVI R + 24

Representative Steve Scalise (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 389

First elected  2007 (replacing Jindal)

2008 margin 66-34 over Jim Harlan

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 26-72

Bush margin 2004 71-29

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 10th most Republican per Cook PVI

Assessment  Long shot

District: LA-02

Location New Orleans map

Cook PVI D + 25

Representative Anh Cao (R)

VoteView NA

First elected  2009 (replacing Jefferson)

2008 margin NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 75-23

Bush margin 2004 24-75

Current opponents None confirmed, but Cedric Richmond, who ran against Jefferson, is considering.  Any Democrat is likely to beat Cao.

Demographics 10th lowest income (median = $27.5K), 40th fewest Whites (28.3%), 2nd most Blacks (63.7%) (only IL01 is higher)

Assessment  By far the most vulnerable candidate in any race.

District: LA-03

Location Southeastern LA, on the Gulf of Mexico map

Cook PVI R + 12

Representative Charlie Melancon (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 218

First elected  2004

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin 55-40

2004 margin in runoff, Melancon won by 569 votes of 115,000

Obama margin 37-61

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Current opponents

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  A very Republican district, but Melancon seems safe; but apparently he is really considering not running, as there are a whole slew of Democrats and Republicans thinking about running.  This bears watching.

District: LA-04

Location Western LA, bordering TX and AR, including Shreveportmap

Cook PVI R + 11

Representative John Fleming (R) Not confirmed

VoteView NA

First elected  2009

2008 margin Beat Paul Carmouche by 356 votes

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 40-59

Bush margin 2004 59-40

Current opponents

Demographics  36th lowest income (median $31K), 36th most Blacks (33.3%)

Assessment  Long shot

District: LA-05

Location Northeastern LA, bordering MS and AR map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative Rodney Alexander (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 306

First elected  2002

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin 68-29

2004 margin 59% (no runoff)

Obama margin 37-62

Bush margin 2004 62-37

Current opponents None confirmed.

Demographics 9th lowest income (median = $27K), 24th most Blacks (33.7%)

Assessment  Long shot

District: LA-06

Location The northwestern part of the southern part of LA map

Cook PVI R + 10

Representative Bill Cassidy (R) Not confirmed

VoteView NA

First elected  2008

2008 margin 48-40 over Don Cazayoux

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 41-57

Bush margin 2004 59-40

Current opponents None confirmed.

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Cassidy ousted Cazayoux in a Democratic year; it will be tough to oust him, now, in an R + 10 district.

District: LA-07

Location Southwestern LA, bordering TX and the Gulf map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative Charles Boustany (R)

VoteView 301

First elected  2004

2008 margin 62-34 over Don Cravins

2006 margin 71-29

2004 margin 55-45 in runoff

Obama margin 35-63

Bush margin 2004 60-39

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 44th lowest income (median = $31K)

Assessment  Long shot

District: ME-01

Location The southern part of ME, including Portland map

Cook PVI D + 8

Representative Chellie Pingree (D) Not confirmed

VoteView NA

First elected  2008

2008 margin 55-45 over Charles Summers

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 61-38

Bush margin 2004 43-55

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 42nd most rural (50.6%), 4th most White (96.3%), 11th least Black (0.6%), 11th least Latino (0.8%) (only 6 districts have less than 1% Black and less than 1% Latino; two of them are in ME, and all of them have Democratic reps)

Assessment  Safe, Pingree won in an open race in 2008

District: ME-02

Location Northern ME, bordering Canada, a bit of NH, and the Atlantic map

Cook PVI D + 3

Representative Michael Michaud (D)

VoteView 135.5

First elected  2002

2008 margin 67-33 over John Frary

2006 margin 61-31

2004 margin 60-40

Obama margin 55-43

Bush margin 2004 46-52

Current opponents Jason Levesque

Demographics 3rd most rural (69%), 2nd most White (96.7%), 7th fewest Blacks (0.4%), 7th fewest Latinos (0.7%)

Assessment  Safe

Previous diaries:

Summary:

Indiana has 9 representatives: 5 Democrats and 4 Republicans

Iowa has 5 representatives: 3 Democrats and 2 Republicans

Kansas has 4 representatives: 1 Democrat and 3 Republicans

 Possibly vul: IN-02 (D)

               IA-03 (D)

               KS-04 now open but was (R)

Sources:

Sources:

House vote in 2008 from WaPo

VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)

Race Tracker

Obama vote by CD from Swing State

National Atlas for maps

and my previous diaries.

District: IN-01

Location Northwestern IN, bordering IL and Lake Michigan, south from Gary about 100 miles map

Cook PVI D + 8

Representative Peter Visclosky (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 127

First elected  1984

2008 margin 71-27 over Mark Leyva

2006 margin 70-27

2004 margin 68-32

Obama margin 62-37

Bush margin 2004 44-55

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Safe

District: IN-02

Location Northern central IN, south from South Bend to Kokomo map

Cook PVI  R + 2

Representative Joe Donnelly (D)

VoteView 235

First elected  2006

2008 margin 67-30 over Luke Puckett

2006 margin 54-46

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 54-45

Bush margin 2004 56-43

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Not completely safe, but only vul to a very good Republican opponent.  Tom Weatherwax may run; he is a former state senator.

District: IN-03

Location Northeastern  IN, bordering MI and OH, including Fort Wayne map

Cook PVI  R + 14

Representative Mark Souder (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 338

First elected 1994

2008 margin 55-45  over Michael Montagno

2006 margin 54-46

2004 margin 69-31

Obama margin 43-56

Bush margin 2004 68-31

Current opponents There is a primary opponent, but no Demorats so far.

Demographics 33rd most Republican in Cook PVI

Assessment Gotta be a long shot.

District: IN-04

Location Central IN, including western and southern suburbs of Indianapolis map

Cook PVI  R + 14

Representative Steve Buyer (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 380

First elected  1992

2008 margin 60-40 over Nels Ackerson

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin 69-28

Obama margin 43-56

Bush margin 2004 69-30

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 25th most Republican per Cook PVI, 47th fewest Blacks (1.3%)

Assessment long shot

District: IN-05

Location Central IN, including eastern suburbs of Indianapolis map

Cook PVI R + 17

Representative Dan Burton (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 410

First elected 1982

2008 margin 66-34 over Mary Ruley

2006 margin 65-31

2004 margin 72-26

Obama margin 40-59

Bush margin 2004 71-28

Current opponents At least one Republican is primarying Burton, and others will run if he retires.

Demographics 22nd fewest in poverty (5.2%), 10th most Republican per Cook PVI

Assessment Long shot

District: IN-06

Location Southern part of eastern IN, bordering OH map

Cook PVI R + 10

Representative Mike Pence (R)

VoteView 431

First elected  2000

2008 margin 64-33 over Barry Welsh

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin 67-31

Obama margin 46-53

Bush margin 2004 64-35

Current opponents None confirmed.

Demographics 41st fewest Latinos

Assessment Looks tough

District: IN-07

Location Indianapolis and suburbs map

Cook PVI D + 14

Representative Andre Carson (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 147

First elected  2008

2008 margin 65-35 over Gabrielle Campo

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 71-28

Bush margin 2004 42-58

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  50th most Blacks (29.4%)

Assessment safe

District: IN-08

Location The southern part of eastern IN, including Terre Haute and Evansville map

Cook PVI R + 8

Representative  Brad Ellsworth (D)

VoteView 233

First elected 2006

2008 margin 65-35 over Greg Goode

2006 margin 61-39

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 47-51

Bush margin 2004 62-38

Current opponents Dan Stockton

Demographics 34th most Whites (93.7%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%)

Assessment Looks safe; Ellsworth, a conservative Democrat, fits the district well, running way ahead of both Bush and Obama.

District: IN-09

Location Southwestern IN, including Bloomington map

Cook PVI R + 6

Representative Baron Hill (D)

VoteView 229

First elected 2006

2008 margin 58-38 over Mike Sodrel

2006 margin 50-45

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 49-50

Bush margin 2004 59-40

Current opponents Todd Young and Travis Hankins

Demographics 60th most rural (47.7%) and 58th fewest Latinos (1.5%)

Assessment After a close race in 2006, Hill won easily in 2008, he should be OK, and he’s already raised over $200K.

District: IA-01

Location Northern part of eastern IA, bordering WI and IL map

Cook PVI D + 5

Representative Bruce Braley (D)

VoteView 151

First elected  2006

2008 margin 64-36 over David Hartsuch

2006 margin 55-43

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 58-51

Bush margin 2004 46-53

Current opponents None confirmed.

Demographics 61st most Whites (92.1%)

Assessment Braley won pretty easily vs. a well-funded opponent in 2006.  Of course, if no one runs, it’s completely safe.

District: IA-02

Location Southeastern IA, bordering MO and IL, including Cedar Rapids map

Cook PVI D + 7

Representative Dave Loebsack (D)

VoteView 93

First elected  2006

2008 margin 67-39 over Mariannete Miller Meeks

2006 margin 51-49

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 60-38

Bush margin 2004 44-55

Current opponents Steve Rathje

Demographics 53rd most Whites (92.4%)

Assessment This is an increasingly Democratic district, and Loebsack should be OK

District: IA-03

Location Central IA, including Des Moines map

Cook PVI D + 1

Representative Leonard Boswell (D)

VoteView 194.5

First elected  1996

2008 margin  56-42 over Kim Schmett

2006 margin 52-46

2004 margin 55-45

Obama margin 54-44

Bush margin 2004 Bush by 250 votes (of 300,000)

Current opponents None declared. Michael Mahaffey may run.

Demographics 75th most Whites (90.1%)

Assessment Mahaffey ran against Boswell in 1996, and it was close. Boswell has already raised $150K, but this bears watching.

District: IA-04

Location Northern central IA, including Ames map.

Cook PVI  Even

Representative Tom Latham (R)

VoteView 290

First elected  1994

2008 margin  61-39 over Becky Greenwald

2006 margin 57-43

2004 margin 61-39

Obama margin 53-45

Bush margin 2004 51-48

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 20th most Whites (94.7%), 27th fewest Blacks (0.8%), 54th most rural (49.5%)

Assessment Latham has won easily in the past, but this is a swing district.  With the right opponent, who knows?

District: IA-05

Location Western IA, bordering SD and NE, including Sioux City and Council Bluffs map

Cook PVI R + 9

Representative Steve King (R) May run for Governor

VoteView 419

First elected  2002

2008 margin 60-37 over Rob Hubler

2006 margin 59-36

2004 margin 63-37

Obama margin 44-54

Bush margin 2004 60-39

Current opponents None confirmed.

Demographics 33rd most Whites (93.7%), 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%), 53rd most rural (50.6%)

Assessment Long shot, whether it’s King or another Republican; in fact, King (something of a nut, even for the Republicans) may be slightly more vulnerable than a more sane human.

District: KS-01

Location The western 3/4 of KS, bordering NE, OK, and CO map

Cook PVI R + 23

Representative Jerry Moran (R) Retiring to run for Senate

VoteView NA

First elected  NA

2008 margin NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 30-69

Bush margin 2004 72-26

Current opponents  7 Republicans are vying for this seat, the 12th most Republican per Cook PVI; No Democrats so far.

Demographics 61st most rural (47.6%)

Assessment Long shot

District: KS-02

Location Eastern KS, except for Kansas City. Includes Topeka map

Cook PVI  R + 9

Representative Lynn Jenkins (R)

VoteView NA

First elected  2008

2008 margin 51-46 over Nancy Boyda

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 43-55

Bush margin 2004 59-39

Current opponents None confirmed.

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Jenkins seems safe.

District: KS-03

Location Kansas City and suburbs  map

Cook PVI R + 3

Representative Dennis Moore (D)

VoteView 196

First elected  1998

2008 margin 56-40 over Rick Jordan

2006 margin 65-34

2004 margin 55-43

Obama margin 51-48

Bush margin 2004 55-44

Current opponents Patricia Barbieri Lightner, maybe others.

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Moore, who had close races early in his career, now seems safe.

District: KS-04

Location Eastern part of southern KS, bordering OK, including Wichita map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative Todd Tiahrt (R) Retiring to run for Senate

VoteView NA

First elected  NA

2008 margin NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 40-58

Bush margin 2004 64-34

Current opponents At least 2 Republicans are running, and at least 2 Democrats: Donald Betts and Robert Tillman (no site)

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment At first glance, this looks like a long shot; but, prior to 2004, Tiahrt had several close races; and Betts, a state senator, has run before.  Could be interesting.

Previous diaries

Today: Illinois

Summary:

Illinois has 19 representatives, 12 Democrats and 7 Republicans.  Vulnerable are

  IL-06 (R) esp. if Roskam runs for senate.

  IL-10 (R) which is now open

  IL-11 (D) where Halvorsen is a freshman in a swing district

Sources:

House vote in 2008 from WaPo

VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)

Race Tracker

Obama vote by CD from Swing State

National Atlas for maps

and my previous diaries.

District: IL-01

Location Partly the south side of Chicago, partly suburbs map

Cook PVI D + 34

Representative Bobby Rush (D) Not confirmed

VoteView rank 50.5

First elected 1992

2008 margin 86-14 over Antoine Members

2006 margin 84-16

2004 margin 85-15

Obama margin 87-13

Bush margin 2004 17-83

Current opponents There is a primary and then Antoine Members is running again (no site)

Demographics More Blacks than any other district (65.3%), 13th most Democratic, per Cook PVI

Assessment Safe

District: IL-02

Location South side of Chicago and suburbs map

Cook PVI D + 36

Representative Jesse Jackson Jr (D)   Not confirmed

VoteView rank  14

First elected  1995

2008 margin 89-11 over Anthony Williams

2006 margin 85-12

2004 margin 88-12

Obama margin 90-10

Bush margin 2004 16-84

Current opponents  None confirmed

Demographics 4th most Blacks (62%), 13th most Democratic (tied with the IL-01)

Assessment Safe

District: IL-03  

Location Southwestern Chicago  map

Cook PVI  D + 11

Representative Dan Lipinski (D)   Not confirmed

VoteView rank 192.5

First elected 2004

2008 margin 73-21 over Michael Hawkins

2006 margin 77-23

2004 margin 73-25

Obama margin 64-35

Bush margin 2004 41-59

Current opponents Michael Hawkins

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Safe

District: IL-04  

Location Possibly the oddest shaped district in the USA (and that’s saying something!) this one…looks like an ordinary district with a big piece missing in the middle.  It includes the Latino districts on the north side, wanders west, has a string-wide bit going south, and then includes the Latino districts on the south side. map

Cook PVI D + 32

Representative Luis Gutierrez (D)   Not confirmed

VoteView rank 45

First elected  1992

2008 margin 81-11 over Daniel Cunningham

2006 margin 86-14

2004 margin 84-12

Obama margin 85-13

Bush margin 2004 21-79

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents Ann Melichar, who lost in 2006

Demographics 5th most Latinos (74.5%) (3 of the 4 higher are in TX), 5th fewest veterans (4.3%)

Assessment  Safe

District: IL-05  

Location North side of Chicago,  from the lake west to O’Hare  map

Cook PVI  D + 19

Representative Mike Quigley   Not confirmed

First elected  2009

VoteView rank NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 73-26

Bush margin 2004 67-33

Current opponents Kevin White (who lost in 2006)

Demographics 23rd fewest veterans (6.7%)

Assessment Safe

District: IL-06

Location Western suburbs of Chicago   map

Cook PVI  Even

Representative Peter Roskam (R) May run for Senate

VoteView rank 381

First elected  2006

2008 margin 58-42 over Jill Morgenthaler

2006 margin 51-49

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 56-43

Bush margin 2004 53-47

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 12th fewest people in poverty (4.3%), 30th highest median income ($63K)

Assessment Unclear.  If Roskam runs for Senate, all bets are off; even if he runs her in IL-06, a strong Democrat could take it.  This one bears watching.

District: IL-07  

Location Chicago’s Loop and nearby map

Cook PVI D + 35

Representative Danny Davis (D) May run for Cook County Pres.

VoteView rank 20.5

First elected  1996

2008 margin 85-15 over Steve Miller

2006 margin 87-13

2004 margin 86-14

Obama margin 88-12

Bush margin 2004 17-83

Current opponents If Davis leaves, a bunch of Democrats will vie for this safe seat.

Demographics 16th most Blacks (61.6%), 20th most people in poverty (24%) (but median income is moderate – $40K)

Assessment safe for Democrats.

District: IL-08  

Location North of Chicago to the WI border, including Schaumburg map

Cook PVI  R + 1

Representative Melissa Bean (D)

VoteView rank 226

First elected  2004

2008 margin 60-40 over Steve Greenberg

2006 margin 51-44 (remainder “moderate” party)

2004 margin 52-48

Obama margin 56-43

Bush margin 2004 56-44

Current opponents None confirmed.

Demographics 28th highest income ($63K)

Assessment After two close races, Bean seems to be safe.

District: IL-09  

Location Northern suburbs of Chicago map

Cook PVI D + 20

Representative Jan Schakowsky (D)

VoteView rank 23

First elected  1998

2008 margin 75-22 over Michael Younan

2006 margin 75-25

2004 margin 76-24

Obama margin 72-26

Bush margin 2004 32-68

Current opponents None confirmed.

Demographics 35th fewest veterans (8%), 37th most nonWhite, nonLatino, nonBlacks (mostly 12.3% Asians)

Assessment Safe

District: IL-10  

Location Northern suburbs of Chicago, along Lake Michigan map

Cook PVI D + 6

Representative Mark Kirk (R) Running for Senate

VoteView rank NA

First elected  NA

2008 margin NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 61-38

Bush margin 2004 47-53

Current opponents

Assessment It’s wide open.  Confirmed Democrats include:

Michael Bond who describes himself as a “fiscal conservative, social moderate, and strong environmentalist”

and Elliot Richardson whose site is pretty much a moderate Democrat’s, but several others are considering a run.  This should be a tight race.  The Cook PVI is a bit off, because IL gave a big native son effect to Obama.

District: IL-11  

Location Shaped like a T, with the middle of the T in Ottawa, the bottom in Bloomington, the eastern end in Kankakee, and the western end in rural IL map

Cook PVI  R + 1

Representative Debbie Halvorson (D)

VoteView rank NA

First elected  2008

2008 margin 58-34 over Marty Ozinga

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 53-45

Bush margin 2004 53-46

Current opponents Adam Kinzinger, Henry Meers, and David McAloon

Demographics 39th fewest nonWhite, nonLatino, nonBlacks

Assessment Unclear, but Halvorsen has already raised $300K.

District: IL-12  

Location Southwestern IL, bordering MO and a tiny bit of KY, including Carbondale and East St. Louis map

Cook PVI D + 3

Representative Jerry Costello (D)

VoteView rank 189

First elected  1988

2008 margin 72-25 over Timmy Richardson

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 69-29

Obama margin 54-44

Bush margin 2004 48-52

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: IL-13  

Location Southwestern suburbs and exurbs of Chicago map

Cook PVI R + 1

Representative Judy Biggert (R)

VoteView rank 293

First elected  1998

2008 margin 54-44 over Scott Harper

2006 margin 58-42

2004 margin 65-35

Obama margin 54-45

Bush margin 2004 55-45

Current opponents Scott Harper is running again.  His website could use some more info on his postions.

Demographics 9th wealthiest district (median income = $72K), 2nd fewest in poverty (2.9%)

Assessment Harper was 10 points behind in a Democratic year, with Obama’s coattails.  I wish him luck, but right now, it doesn’t look too hopeful

District: IL-14  

Location From the far western part of Chicagoland, west almost to the IA border in northern IL map

Cook PVI R + 1

Representative  Bill Foster (D) Not confirmed

VoteView rank 228

First elected  2008

2008 margin 57-43 over Jim Oberweis

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 48-50

Bush margin 2004 55-45

Current opponents  Ethan Hastert and Jeff Danklefson

Demographics 37th highest income (median = $56K)

Assessment  Foster, a conservative Democrat, fits this district well.  He should be OK.

District: IL-15  

Location Eastern central IL, bordering IN, centering on Urbana-Champaign map

Cook PVI  R + 6

Representative Tim Johnson (R) Not confirmed

VoteView rank 247

First elected  2000

2008 margin 64-36 over Steve Cox

2006 margin 58-42

2004 margin 61-39

Obama margin 53-45

Bush margin 2004 59-41

Current opponents David Gill

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Long shot, Gill has lost to Johnson at least twice.

District: IL-16  

Location Northwestern IL, bordering WI and IA, including Rockford map

Cook PVI  R + 2

Representative Don Manzullo (R)

VoteView rank 345

First elected  1992

2008 margin 61-36 over Robert Abboud

2006 margin 64-32

2004 margin 69-31

Obama margin 53-45

Bush margin 2004 55-44

Current opponents Bob Abboud is running again

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Long shot

District: IL-17  

Location A strange shaped district in southwestern IL, bordering IA and MO, including Moline and extending eastward almost to Springfield

map

Cook PVI  D + 3

Representative Phil Hare (D) Not confirmed

VoteView rank 151

First elected  2006

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin 57-43

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 56-42

Bush margin 2004 48-51

Current opponents Bobby Schilling

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Probably safe.

District: IL-18  

Location Shaped like a backward C, centering on Peoria in central IL map

Cook PVI  R + 6

Representative Aaron Schock (R)

VoteView rank NA

First elected  2008

2008 margin 59-38 over Coleen Callahan

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 48-50

Bush margin 2004 58-42

Current opponents Carl Ray (this site needs some help, and he even asks for help on the site).

Demographics 75th most Whites (90%)

Assessment Probably going to be tough

District: IL-19  

Location Southern IL, from suburbs of Springfield south  and east to the IN and KY border map

Cook PVI R + 9

Representative John Shimkus

VoteView rank 307

First elected  1996

2008 margin 64-33 over Dan Davis

2006 margin 61-39

2004 margin 61-39

Obama margin 44-54

Bush margin 2004 61-39

Current opponents None confirmed.

Demographics

Assessment Long shot

I’m starting up this series again.  I’m going to try to do at least 2 rounds before the 2010 election.

It will be an update of the previous series, which makes it a lot easier, as some things haven’t changed.

Previous diaries:

Today: Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware

Summary:

Florida has 25 representatives: 15 Republicans and 10 Democrats

Sources:

House vote in 2008 from WaPo

VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)

Race Tracker

Obama vote by CD from Swing State

National Atlas for maps

and my previous diaries.

District: FL-01

Location The westernmost part of the panhandle, bordering AL, the Gulf of Mexico and including Pensacola map

Representative Jeff Miller (R) Not confirmed

VoteView ranking 429

First elected  2001

2008 margin 70-30 over Jim Bryan

2006 margin 69-31

2004 margin 77-22

Obama margin 32-67

Bush margin 2004 72-29

Current opponents Jim Bryan is running again, he looks like a good guy, but this is a tough district for Democrats.

Demographics Most veterans of any district (21.7%), and the 13th  most Republican district per Cook PVI

Assessment Long shot

District: FL-02

Location The middle of the panhandle, bordering AL, GA and the Gulf of Mexico, and including Tallahassee map

Representative Allen Boyd (D)

VoteView ranking 205

First elected  1996

2008 margin 62-38 over Mike Mulligan

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 62-38

Obama margin 45-54

Bush margin 2004 54-44

Current opponents There is  a primary challenge from Al Lawson daily kos diary, and then William Fisher.

Demographics 90th poorest district (median income = $35K), 60th most veterans (15.3%)

Assessment This part of FL is more like Alabama or Georgia than it is like Miami; Tallahasse (which is in the eastern part of this district) is 484 miles from Miami and 228 from Atlanta.  Boyd has shown he can win; most Democrats could not.

District: FL-03

Location The ‘joint’ where the panhandle meets the main part of the state, including (through some gerrymandering) both parts of Jacksonville and Gainesville.  This district has been the subject of lots of contoversy – it borders the 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th and 24th.  Here:



District          %Black       %Bush 04

03                  49.3          35

04                  13.5          69  

05                   4.5          58

06                  11.9          61

07                   8.8          57  

24                   6.3          55



and the borders of the 3rd are pretty tortured. map

Representative Corrine Brown (D)

VoteView ranking 173.5

First elected  1992

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin unopposed

Obama margin 73-26

Bush margin 2004 35-65

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents Jacob Hoeschst

Demographics 21st poorest district (median income = $30K), 41st most Blacks (49.3%)

Assessment Safe.  

District: FL-04

Location The eastern part of the panhandle, from Tallahassee suburbs to the Atlantic, bordering GA map

Representative Ander Crenshaw (R)

First elected  2000

2008 margin 65-35 over Jim McGovern

2006 margin 70-30

2004 margin unopposed

Obama margin 38-61

Bush margin 2004 69-31

Current opponents No confirmed Democrats.  There is a primary challenge.

Demographics 30th most veterans (17.1%); 33rd most Republican district

Assessment Long shot

District: FL-05

Location On the Gulf coast, just south of the panhandle map

Representative Ginny Brown-Waite (R)

VoteView ranking 334

First elected  2002

2008 margin 61-39 over John Russell

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin 66-34

Obama margin 43-56

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Current opponents At least 3 Democrats: Thomas Doolan (no website, only a facebook page); Jim Picillo (site in need of technical help! His quote signs are showing like diamonds, for instance), and David Werder, a perennial candidate, but definitely odd.

Demographics 12th most veterans (21.3%)

Assessment Long shot

District: FL-06

Location A boomerang shaped district in the middle of north Florida map

Representative Cliff Stearns (R)

VoteView ranking 392

First elected 1988

2008 margin 61-39 over Tim Cunha

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin 64-36

Obama margin 43-56

Bush margin 2004 61-39

Current opponents There’s a primary, and then Cunha is running again (no website yet)

Demographics 13th most veterans (18.3%)

Assessment Long shot

District: FL-07 map

Location Atlantic coast of northern FL, from north of St. Augustine to Daytona Beach

Representative John Mica (R)

VoteView ranking 367

First elected  1992

2008 margin 62-38 over Faye Armitage

2006 margin 63-37

2004 margin Unopposed

Obama margin 46-53

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Current opponents Peter Silva (no website)

Demographics 15th most veterans (17.6%)

Assessment Long shot; Silva’s facebook page does not ooze professionalism, and Mica has won easily.

District: FL-08

Location More or less the middle of FL, including Orlando map

Representative Alan Grayson (D)

VoteView ranking NA

First elected  2008

2008 margin 52-48 over Ric Keller

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 53-47

Bush margin 2004 55-45

Current opponents Todd Long

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment This is a swing district, going for Bush twice before going for Obama; it’s far from safe, but Grayson did just oust Kel

District: FL-09

Location A weirdly shaped district (Oh Gerry! Gerry!) it runs along the Gulf Coast, circles around the 10th CD, and continues, plus it runs east into Central FL, then south – it’s shaped sort of like the number 5, or more like a backwards Z rotated 90 degrees. map

Representative Gus Bilirakis (R) Not confirmed

VoteView ranking 294

First elected  2006

2008 margin 63-36 over Bill Mitchell

2006 margin 56-44

2004 margin NA (but it was his father who held the seat)

Obama margin 47-52

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Current opponents No confirmed Democrats, but there is a primary challenge

Demographics 18th most veterans (17.2%)

Assessment Long shot

District: FL-10

Location The Gulf Coast, near Tampa Bay (across the Bay from Tampa, north of St. Pete), but excluding a narrow strip that is FL-09. map

Representative Bill Young (R) Not confirmed

VoteView ranking 289

First elected  1970

2008 margin 61-39 over Bob Hackworth

2006 margin 66-34

2004 margin 69-31

Obama margin 51-47

Bush margin 2004 51-49

Current opponents If Young runs there is a primary challenge and then Hackworth is running again.

Demographics 13th most veterans (18.2%)

Assessment Young is gradually getting vulnerable.  If we get some breaks, it’s possible we could win here; still, Hackworth lost to Young in 2008.  If Young retires, it’s a new ballgame, he’s been in congress a long time and he’s nearing 80 …

District: FL-11

Location Tampa and St. Petersburg map

Representative Kathy Castor Not confirmed

VoteView ranking 98.5

First elected  2006

2008 margin 70-30 over Eddie Adams

2006 margin 70-30

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 66-33

Bush margin 2004 41-58

Current opponents Scott Keller and Steven Sandford.

Demographics 55th most Blacks (27.4%)

Assessment Probably safe.  

District: FL-12

Location Interior Florida, east of Tampa Bay map

Representative Adam Putnam (R) Quitting to run for statewide office

VoteView ranking NA

First elected  NA

2008 margin NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 49-50

Bush margin 2004 58-42

Current opponents Several Republicans are running, more are thinking about it (see the wiki; only one confirmed Demorat: Lori Edwards (website is clearly a work in progress, needs issues pages and so on).

Demographics 23rd most veterans (17%)

Assessment This is a fairly Republican seat; maybe the Repubs will damage each other in a primary?

District: FL-13

Location Gulf coast, from Bradenton to Englewood, interior to Arcadia map

Representative Vern Buchanan (R) Not confirmed

VoteView ranking 292

First elected  2006

2008 margin 56-38 over Christine Jennings

2006 margin 369 votes out of 237,000

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 47-52

Bush margin 2004 56-43

Current opponents : None confirmed

Demographics 9th most veterans (19.2%)

Assessment Buchanan is vulnerable, if a good candidate runs

District: FL-14

Location Gulf coast, including Naples and Ft. Myers map

Representative Connie Mack (R)

VoteView ranking 398

First elected 2004

2008 margin 59-25 over Robert Neeld

2006 margin 64-36

2004 margin 68-32

Obama margin 42-57

Bush margin 2004 62-38

Current opponents Robert Neeld is running again (site is just a placeholder)

Demographics 6th most veterans (19.8%)

Assessment Neeld has failed three times, long shot.

District: FL-15

Location Atlantic coast, from Cocoa to Vero Beach map

Representative Bill Posey (R) Not confirmed

VoteView ranking NA

First elected  2008

2008 margin 53*42 over Stephen Blythe

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 48-51

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Current opponents None confirmed.

Demographics 8th most veterans (19.4%)

Assessment This is a Republican district, but this is a Democratic year.  With an open seat….And no Republicans have declared yet… who knows?

District: FL-16

Location An oddly shaped district, it goes from the Gulf to the Atlantic; it’s narrow at the Gulf (just about Port Charlotte and nothing else), widens in the middle of the state, swings around Lake Okeechobee, then narrows, then widens again at the Atlantic running from Ft. Pierce to Jupiter, then jogging inland to Wellington map

Representative Tom Rooney (R)

VoteView ranking NA

First elected  2008

2008 margin  60-40 over Tim Mahoney

2006 margin 50-48

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 47-52

Bush margin 2004 54-46

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 11th most veterans (18.9%)

Assessment Vulnerable, but we need a good candidate

District: FL-17

Location Just off the Atlantic (by a mile or so) including North Miami Beach, North Miami, and Hollywood map

Representative Kendrick Meek (D) Retiring to run for Senate

VoteView ranking NA

First elected  NA

2008 margin NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 87-12

Bush margin 2004 17-83

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents About a dozen Democrats seem to be running or considering running (see the WIKI.

Demographics 20th most Blacks (55.2%) and very few veterans (7.2%). 29th poorest district (median income = $30K).  The most Democratic district in the South

Assessment Whichever Democrat wins the primary will win the general.  This is one of the most Democratic districts in the country, and Obama got more here than in all but 12 CDs.

District: FL-18

Location Miami and a narrow strip along the Atlantic north and south of there map

Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R)

VoteView ranking 258

First elected  1989

2008 margin 58-42 over Annette Tadeo

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin 65-35

Obama margin 51-49

Bush margin 2004 54-46

Current opponents None confirmed.

Demographics 16th most Latinos (62.7%)

Assessment Several southern FL seats have gone from solidly Republican to vulnerable in the last decade; partly this is the danger of gerrymandering, partly it’s because the Cuban population is changing.  I thought this one would be closer in 2008, but it’s still possible.

District: FL-19

Location Slightly off the Atlantic from near West Palm Beach to near Pompano Beach map

Representative Robert Wexler (D)

VoteView ranking 50

First elected  1996

2008 margin 66-27 over Ed Lynch

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin unoppposed

Obama margin 65-34

Bush margin 2004 34-66

Current opponents There’s a primary, then either Lynch or Josue Larose

Demographics 28th most veterans (16.6%)

Assessment  Safe

District: FL-20

Location Another weirdly shaped district.  What is it shaped like? Well, part of it is like a number 7, with the top running from the Atlantic west to Weston, and the bottom on the Atlantic. Then, atop the 7, it goes back east to the Atlantic again then north a little… ohh… go look at the map

Representative Debbie Wasserman Schulz (D) Not confirmed

VoteView ranking 83

First elected  2004 (D)

2008 margin unopposed

2006 margin unoppsed

2004 margin 70-30

Obama margin 63-36

Bush margin 2004 36-64

Current opponents Either Brian Reilly or Dennis Lamb

Demographics Not unusual on what I track, but one of the highest concentrations of Jews of any district.

Assessment Safe

District: FL-21

Location This one is shaped like a ?.  Folks, to appreciate southern FL districting, you really have to look at a map.  Gerry would be proud of these guys, but the Republicans may have overdone it, as they now have several vulnerable seats. map

Representative Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R)

VoteView ranking 281.5

First elected  1992

2008 margin 58-42 over Raul Martinez

2006 margin 59-41

2004 margin 73-27 (against a Libertarian)

Obama margin 49-51

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Current opponents None confirmed.

Demographics 8th most Latinos (69.7%)

Assessment Vulnerable with the right opponent, I thought this would be closer in 2008.

District: FL-22

Location One of the strangest shaped districts in the country. Go look. It’s south Florida along the Atlantic….more or less. map

Representative Ron Klein (D)

VoteView ranking 203.5

First elected  2006

2008 margin 55-45 over Alan West

2006 margin 51-47

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 52-48

Bush margin 2004 48-52

Current opponents There’s a primary and then Allen West is running again.

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  West does not appear to be a serious threat, but others might be.

District: FL-23

Location The eastern and southern coasts of Lake Okeechobee map

Representative Alcee Hastings (D) Not confirmed

VoteView ranking 57.5

First elected 1992

2008 margin 82-18 over Marion Thorpe

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin unopposed

Obama margin 83-17

Bush margin 2004 24-76

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents  Bernard Sansariq

Demographics 43rd fewest Whites (29.4%), 23rd most Blacks (51.2%), 41st poorest (median income = $31K)

Assessment Safe

District: FL-24

Location Atlantic coast, towards the north. map

Representative Suzanne Kosmas (D)

VoteView ranking NA

First elected  2008

2008 margin

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 49-51

Bush margin 2004 55-45

Current opponents At least 4 Republicans, see wiki

Demographics 21st most veterans (17.1%)

Assessment  As a freshman in a swing district, Kosmas is vulnerable, but, so far, there are no opponents.

District: FL-25

Location Southern end of Florida map

Representative Mario Diaz-Balart (R)

VoteView ranking 281.5

First elected  2002

2008 margin 53-47 over Joe Garcia

2006 margin 58-42

2004 margin unopposed

Obama margin 49-50

Bush margin 2004 56-44

Current opponents None confirmed.

Demographics 17th most Latinos (62.4%), 16th fewest veterans (6%)

Assessment Vulnerable to the right opponent.

Previous diaries:

Today: Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware

Summary:

Colorado has 7 representatives: 5 Democrats and 2 Republicans.  The only seat that might be in danger is Markey’s in CO-04

Connecticut has 5 representative, all Democrats

Delaware has 1 representative, a Republican, and its a potential gain for the Democrats.

Sources:

House vote in 2008 from WaPo

VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)

Race Tracker

Obama vote by CD from Swing State

National Atlas for maps

and my previous diaries.

District: CO-01

Location This oddly shaped district includes metro Denver, southern suburbs like Glendale, south to Sheridan and Cherry Hills Village, and northeast in a stair step pattern map

Cook PVI D+21

Representative Diana DeGette (D)

VoteView rank 93/447

First elected  1996

2008 margin 72-24 over George Lilly

2006 margin 80-20 (against a Green)

2004 margin 73-25

Obama margin 74-24

Bush margin 2004 31-68

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 30% Latino (49th place)

Assessment Safe

District: CO-02

Location Boulder, and points west, in the Rockies.  Also the exurbs of Denver map

Cook PVI  D +11

Representative Jared Polis

VoteView rank 187.5/447

First elected  2008

2008 margin 62-34 over Scott Starin

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin NA

Bush margin 2004 41-58

Current opponents Scott Starin is running again.

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Polis won easily in 2008, should be safe

District: CO-03

Location Western Colorado (bordering UT), and east along the southern edge (bordering NM), includes Durango and Pueblo and Aspen map

Cook PVI R + 5

Representative John Salazar (D) Not confirmed

VoteView rank 207/447

First elected  2004

2008 margin 61-39 over Wayne Wolf

2006 margin 62-37

2004 margin 51-47

Obama margin 47-50

Bush margin 2004 55-44

Current opponents Martin Beeson

Demographics Relatively rural (39%, 95th place) few Blacks (0.7%, 23rd least) or Asians (0.5%, rank NA) but 21.5% Latino (69th most)

Assessment This is a Republican district, but Salazar, a moderate Democrat, seems safe.  It’d be nice to have a more progressive rep, but better a blue dog than a red Repub.  

District: CO-04

Location Shaped like a backwards F, this is eastern CO (bordering KS and NE) and moves a bit west to Fort Collins (bordering WY) and the northwestern suburbs of Denver map

Cook PVI R + 6

Representative Betsey Markey (D) Not confirmed

VoteView rank NA

First elected  2008

2008 margin 56-44 over Marilyn Musgrave

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 49-50

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Current opponents  Two confirmed Republicans and a bunch of possibles (see Wiki

Demographics 23rd fewest Blacks (0.7%)

Assessment This is a Republican district; Musgrave was an awful person; even if Markey runs, it will probably be hard-fought.

District: CO-05

Location Central CO, including Colorado Springs map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative Doug Lamborn (R)

VoteView rank 439.5/447

First elected  2006

2008 margin 60-37 over Hal Bidlack

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 40-59

Bush margin 2004 66-33

Current opponents None declared.  Possible primary challenge

Demographics More veterans than all but 4 districts, and the 33rd most Republican district.

Assessment A long shot

District: CO-06

Location Exurbs of Denver, and a large area south and east of Denver map

Cook PVI R + 8

Representative Mike Coffman (R) Not confirmed

VoteView rank NA

First elected  2008

2008 margin 60-40 over Hank Eng

2006 margin 59-40

2004 margin 59-39

Obama margin 46-53

Bush margin 2004 60-39

Current opponents Two declared Democrats:

David Canter

and

John Flerlage

I don’t have a strong sense of either of them.

Assessment This is a Republican district; if Coffman runs, it’s a longshot.  Even if he does not, it will be tough.

District: CO-07

Location More of suburban Denver, and a long strip eastward map

Cook PVI D + 4

Representative Ed Perlmutter (D)

VoteView rank 203.5/447

First elected  2006

2008 margin 63-37 over John Lerew

2006 margin 55-42

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 59-40

Bush margin 2004 48-51

Current opponents Brian Campbell

Demographics Not unusual in what I track

Assessment Of the Democrats in CO, this is probably the  least safe, but the Republicans don’t even have a declared candidate

District: CT-01

Location Shaped like a backwards C, including Hartford and suburbs, running north to tha border of MA, and looping south and then west to almost form a circle map

Cook PVI D + 13

Representative John Larson (D) Not confirmed

VoteView rank 119.5

First elected  1998

2008 margin 71-26 over Joe Visconti

2006 margin 74-26

2004 margin 73-27

Obama margin 66-33

Bush margin 2004 39-60

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on things I track

Assessment Safe

District: CT-02

Location Eastern CT, bordering RI, MA and Long Island Sound, including Storrs and New London map

Cook PVI D + 6

Representative Joe Courtney (D)

VoteView rank 137/447

First elected  2006

2008 margin 65-32 over Sean Sullivan

2006 margin 83 votes

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 59-40

Bush margin 2004  44-54

Current opponents Matthew Daly and Daria Novak

Demographics 31st fewest people in poverty (5.8%)

Assessment One close race, one easy victory.  I won’t say “safe” but it looks good.  Novak’s website is like a joke (see the Wiki for a link), with no  issues and some pix of her at a tea party. Daly has a more professional website, but he’s a wingnut, not suited to the district.

District: CT-03

Location New Haven and areas around it map

Cook PVI D + 9

Representative Rosa DeLauro

VoteView rank 93/447

First elected  1990

2008 margin 77-20 over Bo Itshaky

2006 margin 76-22

2004 margin 72-25

Obama margin 63-36

Bush margin 2004 42-56

Current opponents Itshaky is running again.

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: CT-04

Location NYC suburbs – Stamford, Darien, Norwalk, Bridgeport, bordering NY and Long Island Sound map

Cook PVI D + 5

Representative Jim Himes (D)

VoteView rank NA

First elected  2008

2008 margin 51-48 over Chris Shays

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 60-40

Bush margin 2004 48-52

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 30th richest district (median income = $67K)

Assessment Himes won a close one over the incumbent Shays; how safe this is probably depends on the opponent.

District: CT-05

Location Western CT, bordering NY and MA, but going inland to New Britain and Meriden map

Cook PVI D + 2

Representative Chris Murphy (D)

VoteView rank 142/447

First elected  2006

2008 margin 59-39 over David Capiello

2006 margin 54-44

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 56-42

Bush margin 2004 49-49

Current opponents Justin Bernier

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Probably safe.

District: DE-AL

Location Delaware.  

Cook PVI D + 7

Representative Mike Castle (R) Not confirmed

VoteView rank 250/447

First elected  1992

2008 margin 61-38 over Karen Hartley Nagle

2006 margin 57-39

2004 margin 69-30

Obama margin 62-37

Bush margin 2004 46-53

Current opponents John Carney and Scott Spencer; neither website has much on the issues.

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Castle used to win more easily, and he’s getting older, and has been ill, and Delaware is more and more Democratic…. we have a shot!

I’m starting up this series again.  I’m going to try to do at least 2 rounds before the 2010 election.

It will be an update of the previous series, which makes it a lot easier, as some things haven’t changed.

Today: California!

Summary: Most CA districts are very safe.  All of those that might be in play are in Republican hands, including

CA-03 Lungren (R)

CA-04 McClintock (R)

CA-19 Radonovich (R)

CA-25 McKeon (R)

CA-26 Drier (R)

CA-44 Calvert (R)

I think we might pick up 2 of these.

Sources:

House vote in 2008 from WaPo

VoteView

Race Tracker

Obama vote by CD from Swing State

National Atlas for maps

and my previous diaries.

District: CA-01

Location Northern coast of CA, bordering OR, and going inland to include suburbs of Sacramento map

Representative Mike Thompson (D)

Vote view ranking 154/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1998

2008 margin 68-24 over Zane Starkwolf

2006 margin 66-29

2004 margin 67-28 (remainder Green)

Obama margin 2008  66-32

Bush margin 2004 38-60

Current opponents Zane Starkwolf

Demographics 47th lowest percentage Black of any district (1.9% Black)

Assessment Safe

District: CA-02 May retire

Location The 2nd roughly parallels the first, but is inland, but not on the NV border, includes Yreka and Chico map

Representative Wally Herger (R)

Vote view ranking 396/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative) First elected 1986

2008 margin 57-43 over Jeff Morris

2006 margin 64-32

2004 margin 67-33

Obama margin 2008 43-55

Bush margin 2004 62-37

Current opponents None declared, Morris may run again

Demographics 42nd lowest percentage Black (1.2%); 48th most veterans (15.7%)

Assessment A long shot, whether or not Herger retires.

District: CA-03

Location One of the many oddly shaped CA districts, this one loops around Sacramento, and then runs west to the NV border map

Representative Dan Lungren (R)

Vote view ranking 378/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected 2004

2008 margin 50-44 over Bill Durston

2006 margin 59-38

2004 margin 62-35

Obama margin 2008 49-49

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Current opponents At least 3 confirmed Democrats:

Gary Davis (nice site, needs more info, esp. on issues)

Amrerish Bera (An MD, this site also needs some more info.  His parents immigrated …. from where? Where did he go to school? His issue is public health, and he sounds vaguely centrist) and

Bill Slayton (no web site, a utilities executive).

Demographics 49th most veterans (15.7%).

Assessment Lungren has won by a smaller margin each election, and Obama ran even here. Possible.  My inclination is for Davis.

District: CA-04

Location North western CA, bordering OR and (mostly) NV map

Representative  Tom McClintock (R) May retire

Vote view ranking NA (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative) NA

First elected  2008

2008 margin 622 votes out of 340,000 cast, over Charlie Brown

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 2008 44-54

Bush margin 2004 61-39

Current opponents None declared, Brown may run again.

Demographics 27th most veterans (16.6%)

Assessment This one has been close twice now. McClintock has not declared, wait and see.

District: CA-05

Location Sacramento and some suburbs map

Representative Doris Matsui (D)

Vote view ranking 87/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected 2005

2008 margin 74-21 over Paul Smith

2006 margin 71-24

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 2008 70-28

Bush margin 2004 38-61

Current opponents None declared. Smith may run again.

Demographics One of the few district that has high number of Blacks (14.4%, 106th place), Latinos (20.8%, 75th place), and non-white, non-Black, non-Latinos (21.4%, 13th place).  Only 13 districts have more than 10% of each of these groups (the district that is the ‘most’ this way is TX09).

Assessment Safe

District: CA-06

Location Coastal CA north of San Francisco map

Representative Lynn Woolsey (D)

Vote view ranking 3/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1992

2008 margin 72-24 over Mike Halliwell

2006 margin 70-26

2004 margin 73-27

Obama margin 2008 76-22

Bush margin 2004 28-70

Current opponents None declared, Halliwell may run again.

Demographics Relatively wealthy (median income = $59K, 43rd place) and very Democratic (Cook PVI D+21, 45th place)

Assessment Safe

District: CA-07

Location Starting NE of San Francisco and continuing NE to Vacaville and east to Pittsburg (no, not the one in PA!) also including El Cerrito and San Pablo map

Representative  George Miller (D)

Vote view ranking 6/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1974

2008 margin 73-22 over Roger Petersen

2006 margin 84-16 (against a Libertarian)

2004 margin 76-24

Obama margin 2008 72-27

Bush margin 2004 32-67

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 70th fewest Whites (43.2%), with large numbers of Latinos (21.4%, rank = 69), Blacks (16.8%, rank = 95), and others (18.6%, rank = 23)

Assessment Safe

District: CA-08

Location San Francisco map

Representative Nancy Pelosi (D)

Vote view ranking 101/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected   1987

2008 margin 72%, Cindy Sheehan got 16%, Dana Walsh (R) 10%

2006 margin 80-11

2004 margin 83-12

Obama margin 2008 85-12

Bush margin 2004 14-85

Notes on opponents Amazingly, the 2006 opponent raised $150K and got only 19,000 votes. Pelosi hasn’t been under 75% since her first race

Current opponents Dana Walsh is running again.

Demographics Fewer veterans than all but 24 districts (6.8%), and more people who are neither Black, Latino, nor White than all but 14 districts. Also the 18th most Democratic district per Cook PVI

Assessment  Vulnerable.  Ha!  Just seeing if you were paying attention.  Safe.

District: CA-09

Location Oakland and Berkeley and some eastern suburbs of San Francisco map

Representative Barbara Lee (D)

Vote view ranking 4/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1998

2008 margin 86-10 over Charles Hargrave

2006 margin 86-11

2004 margin 85-12

Obama margin 2008 88-10

Bush margin 2004 13-86

Notes on opponents In 2004, Bermudez raised almost $500K.  She got 31,000 votes.  

Current opponents None declared.

Demographics Like the 5th, but more so.  35% White (57th lowest), 26% Black (rank = 61), 19% Latino (83rd place), also 15.4% Asian (rank NA). Only 5 districts are more Democratic – and 4 of those are in NY.

Assessment Safe

District: CA-10

Location Eastern suburbs of San Francisco map

Representative None. Ellen Tauscher (D) resigned to take a state job.  There will be a special election.

Vote view ranking NA

First elected  NA

2008 margin NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin

Obama margin 2008 66-32

Bush margin 2004 40-59

Notes on opponents The 2004 opponent raised $150K; the 2006 opponent raised $7K. They got the same votes

Current opponents A lot of people in both parties are running, see race tracker wiki.

Demographics The 23rd wealthiest district (median income = $65K), it also has a large number of minorities.

Assessment Safe for whoever the Democrats pick.

District: CA-11

Location Central Valley, east of San Francisco. map

Representative Jerry McNerney Not confirmed

Vote view ranking 156.5/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  2006

2008 margin 55-45 over Dean Andal

2006 margin 53-47

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 2008 65-33

Bush margin 2004 54-45

Current opponents Jon del Arroz and Brad Goehring.

Demographics Quite similar to the 10th, with a lot of wealth (median income = $62K) and a lot of Latinos (19.7%, rank = 80).  

Assessment If McNerny runs, this looks increasily safe.  

District: CA-12

Location Southern suburbs of San Francisco. map

Representative Jackie Speier (D)

Vote view ranking 131/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  2008

2008 margin 75-18 over Greg Conlon

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 2008 74-24

Bush margin 2004 27-72

Current opponents None declared.

Demographics 14th wealthiest CD (median income = $70K) with 33.6% people who are neither Black, Latino, nor White (rank = 13); 28.5% Asian.

Assessment Probably safe for Democrats.

District: CA-13

Location The eastern shore of San Francisco Bay. map

Representative Pete Stark (D)

Vote view ranking 1/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1972

2008 margin 76-24 over Raymond Chui

2006 margin 75-25

2004 margin 72-24

Obama margin 2008 74-24

Bush margin 2004 28-71

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Quite similar to the 12th

Assessment Safe.  Stark is one of the most outspoken liberals in the House.  Go Pete! Tell it like it is. Someone has to!  VoteView ranks him most progressive of all in the House.

District: CA-14

Location Coastal CA south of San Francisco, including Menlo Park and Palo Alto. map

Representative Anna Eshoo (D)

Vote view ranking 122.5/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1992

2008 margin 70-22 over Ronny Santana

2006 margin 71-24

2004 margin 70-27

Obama margin 2008 73-25

Bush margin 2004 33-68

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Third wealthiest district (only NJ11 and VA11 are higher median income), also 17th highest percentage of non-White, non-Black, non-Latinos.

Assessment Safe

District: CA-15

Location A long, narrow district running north-south, from Santa Clara to Gilroy map

Representative Mike Honda (D)

Vote view ranking 8.5/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected 2000

2008 margin 72-20 over Joyce Cordi

2006 margin 72-28

2004 margin 72-28

Obama margin 2008 68-30

Bush margin 2004 36-63

Current opponents None declared, but Honda has a primary challenger: Joe Simitian, now a state senator.

Demographics Another wealthy (median income = $75K) district with lots of minorities (29.2% Asian)

Assessment Safe

District: CA-16

Location San Jose and south of San Jose to San Martin map

Representative Zoe Lofgren (D)

Vote view ranking 77/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1994

2008 margin 71-24 over Charel Winston

2006 margin 73-27

2004 margin 71-26

Obama margin 2008 70-29

Bush margin 2004 36-63

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Very similar to the 15th.  The 8th most non-Latino, non-Black, non-Whites of any district; 6th most outside Hawaii.  

Assessment Safe

District: CA-17

Location Coastal California from Santa Cruz south to Monterrey and beyond map

Representative Sam Farr (D)

Vote view ranking 54/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1993

2008 margin 73-27 over Jeff Taylor

2006 margin 76-23

2004 margin 67-29

Obama margin 2008 72-26

Bush margin 2004 33-66

Current opponents None declared.

Demographics The 31st most Latinos of any district (42.9%)

Assessment Safe.  Farr has quietly worked on district issues, while being solidly liberal on national ones

District: CA-18

Location Central Valley map

Representative Dennis Cardoza (D)

Vote view ranking 201/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  2002

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin 65-35

2004 margin 68-33

Obama margin 2008 59-39

Bush margin 2004 50-49

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Like the above districts, the 18th has a lot of Latinos (41.9%, 33rd). Unlike them, it is quite poor (median income = $34K, 84th lowest).

Assessment Safe.  Cardoza is relatively centrist, and wins easily in this swing district; safer than ever, now, as the 18th has moved more Democratic.

District: CA-19

Location If there is a middle of CA, this is it. map

Representative George Radonovich (R) May retire

Vote view ranking 363.5/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1994

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin 61-39

2004 margin 66-27

Obama margin 2008 46-52

Bush margin 2004 61-38  

Current opponents Les Marsden, a somewhat odd website.  Marsden is a professional musician and actor.  He seems good on some issues (e.g. he’s for nationalized health care) although he’s centrist on e.g. fiscal policy.

Demographics Another district with lots of Latinos (28.2%, rank = 55)

Assessment If Radanovich retires, Marsden might have a shot.

District: CA-20

Location More of the Central Valley map

Representative Jim Costa (D)

Vote view ranking 201/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected 2004

2008 margin 74-26 over Jim Lopez

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 53-47

Obama margin 2008 60-39

Bush margin 2004 48-51

Current opponents Josh Miller, apparently a right wing nut, and conservative Christian, chaired a “Yes on 8” campaign.

Demographics 25th fewest Whites of any district (21.4%), and 13th most Latinos (63.1%)

Assessment A moderate Democrat in an increasingly Democratic district, Costa seems relatively safe, but it bears a little watching.

DONE TO HERE

District: CA-21

Location Porterville and north of Porterville in the Central Valley map

Representative Devin Nunes (R)

Vote view ranking 365/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  2002

2008 margin 68-32 over Larry Johnson

2006 margin 67-30

2004 margin 73-27

Obama margin 2008 42-56

Bush margin 2004 65-34

Current opponents None declaredhttp://www.opencongress.org/wiki/CA-21

Demographics Similar to the other Central Valley districts

Assessment Long shot

District: CA-22

Location Runs east-west, the southern edge of the Central Valley map

Representative Kevin McCarthy (R)

Vote view ranking 363.5/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  2006

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin 71-29

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 2008 38-60

Bush margin 2004 31-68

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on variables I track

Assessment Long shot.

District: CA-23

Location A weird, long, skinny strip along the coast from San Luis Obispo to Oxnard, not really contiguous, plus a couple islands map.

Representative Lois Capps (D) Not confirmed

Vote view ranking 72/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1998

2008 margin 68-32 over Matt Kokkonen

2006 margin 65-35

2004 margin 63-34

Obama margin 2008 66-32

Bush margin 2004 40-58

Current opponents None declared.

Demographics Another district with a lot of Latinos (41.7%, rank = 34)

Assessment Safe.  

District: CA-24

Location Just interior to most of CA-23 map

Representative Elton Gallegly (R) May retire

Vote view ranking 341/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1986

2008 margin 58-42 over Marta Jorgensen

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin 63-34

Obama margin 2008 51-48

Bush margin 2004 56-43

Current opponents Jill Martinez (ran before, but I can’t find a current website), Shawn Stern, possibly others

Demographics The 35th wealthiest district (median income = $68K).

Assessment Gallegly has had a couple close races (in 2000 and in 1992); Jorgensen didn’t do well in 2008, but this could be close again, whether Gallegly runs or not.

District: CA-25

Location map

Representative Buck McKeon (R) Possibly retiring

Vote view ranking 356/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected 1992

2008 margin 58-42 over Jackie Conaway

2006 margin 60-36

2004 margin 64-36

Obama margin 2008 49-48

Bush margin 2004 59-40

Current opponents Jacquese Conaway is running again, but I can’t find a current website.

Demographics 56th most Latinos (27.1%)

Assessment This is Republican territory, but Obama did win the district.

District: CA-26

Location Northeastern suburbs of Los Angeles, east to Upland and Rancho Cucamunga map

Representative David Dreier (R)

Vote view ranking 366/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1980

2008 margin 53-40 over Russ Warner

2006 margin 57-38

2004 margin 54-43

Obama margin 2008 51-47

Bush margin 2004 55-44

Current opponents Russ Warner is running again. This website could use some help.

Demographics A fairly wealthy district (median income = 59K, rank = 44) with a lot of Asians (15.2%)

Assessment Warner lost badly even though Obama took the district, so this doesn’t look too good; still, his name recognition is up, so it’s at least possible.

District: CA-27

Location Shaped like an upside-down U, the middle of the U is CA-28.  This is north of Beverly Hills, and includes Northridge and Reseda. map

Representative Brad Sherman (D)

Vote view ranking 112.5/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1996

2008 margin 68-25 over Navraj Singh

2006 margin 69-31

2004 margin 62-33

Obama margin 2008 66-32

Bush margin 2004 39-59

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Another district with a lot of Asians (10.5%) and Latinos (36.5%, rank = 38).

Assessment Safe

District: CA-28

Location San Fernando valley, including Van Nuys. The 28th is shaped like an upside-down T map

Representative Howard Berman (D)

Vote view ranking 87/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1982

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin 74-19

2004 margin 71-23

Obama margin 2008 76-22

Bush margin 2004 28-71

Current opponents None declared.

Demographics Fewer veterans (5.9%) than all but 13 districts.  Fewer Whites (31.4%) than all but 47 districts. More Latinos (55.6%) than all but 21.

Assessment Safe

District: CA-29

Location Another oddly shaped district, shaped sort of like a number 7, with two antennae coming out of the top map

Representative Adam Schiff (D)

Vote view ranking 125/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected 2000

2008 margin 69-27 over Charles Hahn

2006 margin 63-27

Obama margin 2008 68-30

2004 margin 65-30

Bush margin 2004 37-61

Current opponents None declared.  Hahn will not run.

Demographics More non-White, non-Black, non-Latinos than any but 5 districts (23.7% Asian)

Assessment Safe

District: CA-30

Location Coastal California, Beverly Hills to Malibu map

Representative Henry Waxman

Vote view ranking 57.5/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1974

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin 71-26

2004 margin 71-29

Obama margin 2008 70-28

Bush margin 2004 33-66

Current opponents None declared, but there is a primary challenge from Tony Dolz, who would be a blue dog, from his website.  In fact, he sounds like a Republican, not a Democrat at all.

Demographics Wealthy (median income = 61K, rank = 44), lots of Asians (8.8%), few veterans (8.3%, rank = 41).

Assessment Safe

District: CA-31

Location Yet another oddly shaped district, something like a W on its side, centered on Hollywood map

Representative Xavier Becerra (D) Not declared

Vote view ranking 77/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1992

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 80-20

Obama margin 2008 80-18

Bush margin 2004 22-77

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Fewer veterans than any other district (3.7%), fewer Whites (9.8%) than any except NY16, more Latinos (70.2%) than any but 5 districts. More Democratic (per Cook PVI) than any but 32.

Assessment Safe.

District: CA-32

Location Yes, it’s another oddly shaped district, it’s shaped a little like NY State, in the northeastern suburbs of Los Angeles map.  

Representative None (Solis resigned to take a state job)

Vote view ranking NA

First elected  2000

2008 margin NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 2008 68-30

Bush margin 2004 37-62

Current opponents Lots of candidates.

Demographics Like the 31st, but not quite as extreme.

Assessment Safe for whichever Democrat wins

District: CA-33

Location This one is shaped sort of like a teakettle in Los Angeles.  This is one of the smallest districts in the US (just 48 square miles) map

Representative Diane Watson

Vote view ranking 25/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  2001

2008 margin 87-13 over David Crowley

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 89-11 (against a Libertarian)

Obama margin 2008 87-12

Bush margin 2004 16-83

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents None declared.

Demographics Relatively poor (median income = $32K, 46th lowest), with many minorities (29.9% Black, rank = 37; 34.6% Latino, rank = 33) and very Democratic (Cook PVI = D+36, rank = 7)

Assessment Safe

District: CA-34

Location Los Angeles, centering on Broadway map

Representative Lucille Roybal-Allard (D)

Vote view ranking 87/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1992

2008 margin 77-23 over Chris Balding

2006 margin 77-23

2004 margin 74-26

Obama margin 2008 75-23

Bush margin 2004 30-69

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Fewer Whites than any but 3 districts; more Latinos than any but 3 districts (TX15,16 and 28) and lower median income ($30K) than any but 24 districts.

Assessment Safe

District: CA-35

Location Los Angeles, including Gardena, South Central, and Inglewood map

Representative Maxine Waters (D)

Vote view ranking 14/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1990

2008 margin 82-14 over Ted Hayes

2006 margin 84-8-8 (against two minor parties)

2004 margin 81-15

Obama margin 2008 84-14

Bush margin 2004 20-79

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 3rd fewest Whites (10.4%), 32nd most Blacks (34.1%) and 26 most Latinos (47.4%)

Assessment Safe

District: CA-36

Location Los Angeles along Santa Monica Bay and the Pacific map

Representative Jane Harman (D)

Vote view ranking 93/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  2000

2008 margin 68-32 over Brian Gibson

2006 margin 63-32

2004 margin 62-33

Obama margin 2008 64-34

Bush margin 2004 40-59

Current opponents No declared Republicans but she has a primary challenger: Marcy Winograd (no web site yet) who is pledging to be a true progressive.  I don’t know if she has a chance, but, in this safe district, a real progressive would be good. Other Democrats may run as well.

Demographics 27th most non-Blacks, non-Whites, non-Latinos

Assessment Safe for any Democrat.

District: CA-37

Location Long Beach map

Representative Laura Richardson (D)

Vote view ranking 93/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  2007

2008 margin 75-25 over Nick Dibs (Indep), no R.

2006 margin NA (she won her 2007 race 67-25, with almost no one voting – a total of about 21,000 people)

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 2008 80-19

Bush margin 2004 25-74

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Similar to the other Los Angeles districts

Assessment Safe

District: CA-38

Location Another weirdly shaped district, shaped sort of like a 7 on it’s side, with the middle of the 7 in East Los Angeles, then extending south about 8 miles to Norwalk, and east about 20 miles to Pomona map

Representative  Grace Napolitano (D)

Vote view ranking 77/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1998

2008 margin 82-14 over Chris Agrella (Lib). No R.

2006 margin 75-25

2004 margin Unopposed

Obama margin 2008 71-27

Bush margin 2004 34-65

Current opponents none declared

Demographics Again, similar to those above

Assessment Safe

District: CA-39

Location Horseshoe shaped district including Whittier, Cerritos and Lynwood map

Representative Linda Sanchez (D)

Vote view ranking 119.5/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected   2002

2008 margin 69-31 over Diane Lenning

2006 margin 66-34

2004 margin 61-39

Obama margin 2008 65-32

Bush margin 2004 40-59

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 21st fewest Whites (21%), 18th most Latinos (61.2%), modest income (median = $45K, 153rd place)

Assessment Safe

District: CA-40

Location An inverted horseshoe, it caps CA47 and includes Cypress, Fullerton and Orange map

Representative Ed Royce (R)

Vote view ranking 439.5/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected 1992

2008 margin 63-27 over Christina Avalos

2006 margin 67-31

2004 margin 68-32

Obama margin 2008 47-51

Bush margin 2004 60-39

Current opponents : None declared

Demographics Demographically, hard to distinguish from the Democratic districts in the area

Assessment A long shot.

District: CA-41

Location A wedge shaped district, running east-west. In the west, it includes Redlands, Highland and Yucalpa (the eastern edge of the Los Angeles basin) and runs west through desert to the border of AZ and NV map

Representative Jerry Lewis (R)

Vote view ranking 305/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected 1978

2008 margin 62-38 over Tim Prince

2006 margin 67-33

2004 margin 83-17 (against a Libertarian)

Obama margin 2008 44-54

Bush margin 2004 62-37

Current opponents : None declared.

Demographics Lots of veterans (16.1%, 39th place)

Assessment Long shot.

District: CA-42

Location A funnel shaped district, with the top running from La Habita to Chino, and the point in Mission Viejo map

Representative Gary Miller (R) Not confirmed

Vote view ranking 355/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1998

2008 margin 60-40 over Ed Chau

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 68-32

Obama margin 2008 45-53

Bush margin 2004 62-37

Current opponents : Michael Williamson, a strange website.

Demographics 13th wealthiest district (median income = $70K), with a large Asian population (15.9%)

Assessment Another Republican district, but Miller may also be a crook: He seems fond of claiming that his land was taken under eminent domain, and thus dodging taxes, and is under FBI investigation. He also uses his staff to run his personal errands…..uh oh…. and now he’s running against a cop.

District: CA-43

Location Runs east-west from Ontario to San Bernadino map

Representative Joe Baca (D)

Vote view ranking 158.5/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1999

2008 margin 68-32 over John Roberts

2006 margin 64-36

2004 margin 66-34

Obama margin 2008 68-30

Bush margin 2004 41-58

Current opponents None declared.

Demographics Similar to many of the California districts: Lots of Latinos, few veterans, few Whites.

Assessment Safe for Democrats; Baca is fairly centrist, so the primaries might be worth looking at

District: CA-44

Location runs NE to SW, with the northeasternmost city being Riverside, and the southwesternmost being San Clemente map

Representative Ken Calvert (R)

Vote view ranking 318/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1992

2008 margin 52-48 over Bill Hedrick

2006 margin 60-37

2004 margin 62-35

Obama margin 2008 50-49

Bush margin 2004 59-40

Current opponents He has a primary challenger, and then Bill Hedrick is running again.  This, to me, is what a “running for congress” site should look like.  

Demographics Another district with many Latinos (35.0%)

Assessment A Southern California Republican.  Ethical and legal troubles.  Calvert also has ties to Duke Cunningham. He was also found in a car with a prostitute, with her head in his lap, and both of them partially unclad.  He said they were just talking.  hmmmm. Where are his ears?  Hedrick looks like a good guy, e.g.

Supports EFCA

Wants Manhattan Project type thing for energy technology

I will fight not only to end our dependence on foreign oil, but also to hold all oil companies accountable for profiteering. I will always put our national security, the needs of our economy, and the interests and health of all Americans before the self-serving interests of oil industry lobbyists.”

District: CA-45

Location A long narrow district running east west near the southern end of CA, from Moreno Valley in the west to the AZ border map

Representative Mary Bono (R)

Vote view ranking 291/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1998

2008 margin 57-43 over Julie  Bornstein

2006 margin 61-39

2004 margin 67-33

Obama margin 2008 52-47

Bush margin 2004 56-43

Current opponents Steve Pougnet.  Too busy, in my opinion, too much motion.

Demographics Also heavily Latino (38.0%, rank = 35)

Assessment Obama won, but Bono won easily, even in 2008.

District: CA-46

Location Coastal CA including Long Beach and Costa Mesa, and some islands map

Representative Dana Rohrabacher (R) Not confirmed

Vote view ranking 416/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1988

2008 margin 53-43 over Debbie Cook

2006 margin 60-37

2004 margin 62-33

Obama margin 2008 48-50

Bush margin 2004 57-42

Current opponents No declared Democrats, but he has a primary challenger.

Demographics Another wealthy district (median income = $62K, rank = 34) with a lot of Asians (15.4%)

Assessment Another Southern California Republican with ethics problems – he’s tied to Abramoff.  Still, this is a Republican district.  

District: CA-47

Location East of the 46th and south of the 40th (both Republican) is the 48th (which is Democratic). It runs north-south, including Anaheim and Santa Ana map

Representative Loretta Sanchez (D)

Vote view ranking 119.5/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1996

2008 margin 69-26 over Rosie Avila

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin 60-40

Obama margin 2008 60-38

Bush margin 2004 50-49

Current opponents Van Tran

Demographics More Latinos (65.3%) than all but 11 districts, also 13.9% Asian.  Fewer Whites (17.3%) than all but 10 districts, fewer veterans (5.2%) than all but 9.

Assessment  Should be safe

District: CA-48

Location Coastal California from Newport Beach south to Laguna Niguel map

Representative John Campbell (R) Not confirmed

Vote view ranking 435/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  2005

2008 margin 56-41 over Steve Young

2006 margin 60-37

Obama margin 2008 49-49

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 58-40

Current opponents Beth Krom (another too flashy site, IMHO).

Demographics The 15th wealthiest district (median income = $70K)

Assessment A long shot

District: CA-49

Location A V shaped district, running from Oceanside (on the coast) to Parris and into San Diego county [map

Representative Darrell Issa

Vote view ranking 388/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  2000

2008 margin 59-37 over Robert Hamilton

2006 margin 63-33

2004 margin 63-35

Obama margin 2008 45-53

Bush margin 2004 63-36

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Another heavily Latino district (29.5%, 52nd place)

Assessment Long shot

District: CA-50

Location Coastal California from Carlsbad south to Solana Beach and a little beyond, and inland to Escondido, surrounding San Diego map

Representative Brian Billbray (R) Not confirmed

Vote view ranking 371/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  2006, but was in House 1994-2000

2008 margin 50-45 over Nick Leibham

2006 margin 53-43

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 2008 51-47

Bush margin 2004 55-44

Current opponents At least 2 Democrats: Francine Busby and Tracey Emblem.  Busby lost a squeaker a while back.  She’s good.  I don’t know much about Emblem, her site is a work in progress.

Demographics Relative wealthy (median income = $59K, 40th place).

Assessment Possible.  

District: CA-51

Location The southwest corner of CA, bordering Mexico and AZ map

Representative Bob Filner (D) Not confirmed

Vote view ranking 28.5/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected 1992

2008 margin 72-25 over David Lee Joy

2006 margin 67-30

2004 margin 62-35

Obama margin 2008 63-35

Bush margin 2004 46-53

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 22nd most Latinos (53.2%), 23rd fewest Whites (21.3%)

Assessment Probably safe

District: CA-52

Location An L shaped district, running from the San Diego suburbs east and then north through mountains and desert map

Representative Duncan Hunter (R) retiring

Vote view ranking 342/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  1980

2008 margin 57-39 over Mike Lumpkin

2006 margin 65-32

2004 margin 69-28

Obama margin 2008 45-53

Bush margin 2004 61-38

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Long shot

District: CA-53

Location Central San Diego, and some suburbs map

Representative Susan Davis (D)

Vote view ranking 129.5/447 (1 is most liberal, 447 most conservative)

First elected  2000

2008 margin 68-28 over Michael Crimmins

2006 margin 68-30

Obama margin 2008 68-30

2004 margin 66-29

Bush margin 2004 38-61

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe