Month: November 2006

Do you know anyone in Connecticut?  Anyone at all?  If you do, please consider taking part in Ned’s Family, Friends & Neighbors program.  It’s an incredibly easy and incredibly effective voter contact tool, because its power rests in the strength of your personal connections and your own ability to persuade your friends.  Tonight at 11:00 pm EDT is your last chance to send a postcard to someone you know in Connecticut to encourage them to vote for Ned Lamont using this tool.  Remember: in 1988, Lowell Weicker was still ahead by 6 points around this time.  You never know what could happen.  Please urge everyone you know in Connecticut to head out to the polls and support Ned Lamont on Tuesday.

Pinch me, I think I’m dreaming (likely voters, Oct. 16-18 in parens):

John Yarmuth (D): 52 (48)

Anne Northup (R): 44 (47)

MoE: ±4%

Amazing.  Northup has held back strong Democratic challengers for a decade in this Louisville district that leans Democratic (she most recently scored 60% of the vote in 2004), and many prognosticators were quick to write off Yarmuth’s chances, figuring that his resume of being an alt-weekly publisher would be an easy target for Northup to pummel.  But by all indications, Yarmuth has run a scrappy, smart campaign and has been tightening the contest over the last two months.  If he can do what other Democrats have failed to do in cycles past, November 7 is going to be a big night.

link

In the secretary of state race, nearly half, or 48 percent, of overall respondents said they would vote for Democratic candidate Michael Mauro and 42 percent said they would vote for Mary Ann Hanusa.

My rating for Iowa SOS: Leans Democratic

Governor, House district 3, and generic below the flip.

poll data

MOE: +/-4%

Governor:

Culver (D): 50

Nussle (R): 45

(Culver leads 51-44 with independents)

My rating: Leans Democratic

Generic congressional ballot:

Democrats: 55

Republicans: 42

This probably means we’re going to control both houses of the Iowa state legislature, where the margin needed for control of both houses is just one seat. My rating for IA-State Senate, IA-State Assembly: Leans Democratic

IA-3 (MOE +/- 5%):

Boswell (D): 53

Lamberti (R): 41

Boswell leads among independents 58-39. My rating: Democrat Favored.

Haven’t seen any House polls yet today, but www.pollster.com shows a premium Rasmussen poll with O’Malley (D) leading Governor Ehrlich (R) 49-48. As usual with premium reports that have yet to be published to the general audience, there’s no MOE or any further details yet. Clearly, though, Ehrlich is generating a lot of momentum in the final week. Seeing as how this result corroborates the Baltimore Sun poll from the other day, I’d say it’s safe to place this race firmly in the Tossup column. Let’s hope Ehrlich’s momentum doesn’t continue.

Poll below the flip – predict the outcome.

Crossposted from Burnt Orange Report but it is a poll and the SSP diaries need some content!

This poll was taken Monday night of a random sample of 230 UT students, unweighted. It has a 5.4% MoE @ 90% confidence.

46.5% Bell (D)

18.3% Friedman (I)

16.5% Perry (R) 

10.0% Strayhorn (I) 

04.3% Werner (L) 

04.0% Undecided

If the heart of the supposed hotbed of Kinky Friedman support has this pathetic of a showing, what more evidence do people need to show that Chris Bell is the only viable candidate to beat Rick Perry?

Turnout at the on campus UT early voting site hit a high today of 626 votes even as the county remained static from yesterday. Looks like my autocall to students yesterday and other GOTV phone calls are making an impact.

Highlights from Wednesday’s independent expenditures:

• I hope you weren’t gullible enough to buy the NRCC disinformation campaign that they were abandoning the campaigns of Curt Weldon (PA-07) and Joy Padgett (OH-18).  On the contrary, they haven’t given up.  The NRCC spent nearly $650,000 smearing Joe Sestak and $230,000 attacking Zack Space today.  Does that sound like “retreat” to you?

• Notable DCCC buys: $673k in AZ-05, both attacking Hayworth and supporting Harry Mitchell; $100k in CA-11 supporting McNerney and attacking Pombo; $530k in CO-07 supporting Ed Perlmutter and attacking Rick O’Donnell (we actually figured this one was locked up); $500k in CT-02 against Rob Simmons and for Joe Courtney; $472k in CT-05 against Nancy Johnson and for Chris Murphy; $628k in FL-22 attacking Clay Shaw; $1.3 million in IL-06 against Peter Roskam and for Tammy Duckworth (holy hell); $550k against David McSweeney in IL-08; $1.2 million in IN-09 against Mike Sodrel and for Baron Hill; $320k for KY-03 against Ann Northup; $720k in KY-04 against Geoff Davis; $123k in MN-01 for Tim Walz and against Gil Gutknecht; $400k in MN-06 against Michele Bachmann; $110k in NE-03 against Adrian Smith; $426k in NM-01 against Heather Wilson; $308k in NV-03 against Jon Porter and for Tessa Hafen; $426k in NY-24 for Mike Arcuri and against Raymond Meier; $226k in NY-26 against NRCC Chair Tom Reynolds; $375k in OH-01 against Steve Chabot; $366k in OH-15 against Deborah Pryce; $640k in OH-18 against Joy Padgett; $250k in PA-04 against Melissa Hart and for Jason Altmire; $276k in VA-02 against Thelma Drake; $124k in WA-05 against Cathy McMorris; $640k in WA-08 against Dave Reichert.

• The NRCC has followed the DCCC into KS-02.  As a response to the surprise $650,000 dropped by the DCCC in this district earlier this week, they’ve placed a $220k ad buy against Boyda, which is a signal that the DCCC’s incursion was worth it.  Similarly, following the DCCC’s recent expansion into KY-03 on behalf of John Yarmuth, the NRCC has put up $200k into this district today.  They’re also putting up $350k attacking Dan Maffei in NY-25.

• ID-01: The Club For Growth is pumping an emergency $260k into this district to defend their golden boy, Bill “Brain Fade” Sali, who just may prove to be the only unelectable Republican in Idaho.

Via the Bluegrass Report comes a new DCCC/Kentucky Democratic Party poll on the 2nd district race between state legislator Mike Weaver and incumbent Republican Ron Lewis (Oct. 26-29; Sept. 22-25 in parens):

Mike Weaver (D): 46 (42)

Ron Lewis (R-Inc.): 43 (50)

MoE: ±4.9%

I’ve always figured that this race was a questionable longshot given the district’s strong Republican lean (in federal votting patterns, not registration), but it appears that Weaver, a retired Lt. Colonel, has been able to gain traction in this district and is starting to bring registered Democrats home. The DCCC has put in nearly $200k into this district for stretch run attack ads against Lewis, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see that number expand considerably in tonight’s FEC filings. We might be able to steal one here.

Update: A few days ago, a Washington Post article quoted an anonymous Democratic “operative” calling the DCCC’s support of Weaver “guilt money” to cleanse their consciences after cajoling Weaver into the race. I didn’t buy it then (it’s hard to imagine Rahm spending time worrying about people’s hurt feelings when the same could be said about several other Democratic challengers this year), and I definitely don’t buy it now. It seems as if some anonymous “operative” was attempting to throw off the NRCC from taking Weaver seriously (and I doubt they bought it, either, although you never know with the leakariffic culture of DC Democrats).

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The latest California Field Poll has Shwarzenegger up by double digits but still under 50%. Feinstein also up by double digits, with slight slippage within the MOE. Unfortunetly no polling on the “down the ticket” or Congressional races.

11/1/2006 MOE 3.5% Both Polls

Gov:

Shwarzenegger 49 (44)

Angelides 33 (34)

Other 6 (7)

Undecided 12 (15)

Angelides is only leading in LA County-42% to 36% and tied in the SF Bay Area, not good news. Looks like the Gropenator will pull this out but interesting that he still hasn’t popped 50%. 78% believe Shwarzenegger will win.

Sen:

Feinstein 55  (57)

Mountjoy 33  (29)

Other  4 (6)

Undecided 8 (8)

No regional info. Interesting slip though its within the MOE and I only just saw my first Feinstein TV Ad today.

AZ-08

Zogby(Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Graf (R) 41 (37)

Giffords (D) 54 (45)

CO-07

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

O’Donnell (R) 40 (34)

Perlmutter (D) 54 (45)

CT-02

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Simmons (R) 47 (44)

Courtney (D) 42 (41)

CT-04

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Shays (R) 44 (41)

Farrell (D) 51 (46)

IL-06

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Roskam (R) 40 (38)

Duckworth (D) 54 (43)

IN-02

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Chocola (R) 39 (39)

Donnelly (D) 52 (49)

IN-09

Zogby for Reuters. 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Sodrel (R) 46 (38)

Hill (D) 48 (46)

IA-01

Zogby(Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Whalen (R) 42 (34)

Braley (D) 49 (47)

KY-04

Zogby(Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Davis (R) 42 (42)

Lucas (D) 45 (36)

MN-06

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Bachmann (R) 52 (46)

Wetterling (D) 42 (43)

NM-01

Zogby for Reuters. 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Wilson (R) 44 (40)

Madrid (D) 53 (50)

NC-11

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Taylor (R) 43 (40)

Shuler (D) 48 (51)

OH-18

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Padgett (R) 33 (36)

Space (D) 58 (45)

PA-06

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Gerlach (R) 44 (41)

Murphy (D) 49 (43)

VIRGINIA (2nd CD)

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Drake (R) 51 (42)

Kellam (D) 43 (46)