NE-Sen: How 2008 Will Be Different From 2006

(More commentary from our man on the ground in Nebraska. – promoted by James L.)

In assessing the lay of the land in Nebraska, as it is becoming increasingly likely that Chuck Hagel is seeking reelection, and almost a certainty that Jon Bruning will be his opponent for the Republican nomination, it’s helpful to look back at the last high-profile Republican primary fight in Nebraska, the 2006 governor’s race between Tom Osborne and Dave Heineman. What’s different, here? And what might we see repeat itself?

The Republicans

I still contend that Heineman’s victory was a triumph of machine politics. Hagel came out early in vocal support of Heineman, while the only prominent elected Republican to endorse Tom Osborne for governor was – you guessed it – Jon Bruning.

But still, there’s no doubt that Heineman was the underdog in this race. Despite the advantages of incumbency, he hadn’t really done anything since assuming office in 2005.

A combination of factors contributed to Heineman’s ultimate victory, but the fact that Heineman was backed by almost every prominent Republican while Osborne’s most prominent endorsements were from Democrats (Warren Buffett actually switched to the Republican Party to vote for Osborne), may have sealed the deal.

The Independents

A quick look at the voter registration numbers in Nebraska shows 187,000 registered “nonpartisan” voters, or independents. (About 16% of registered voters in Nebraska). Nebraska law allows independents to vote in federal primary elections by requesting either the Democratic or Republican ballot. In 2006, independents found that they could not vote in the high-profile gubernatorial primary because state law requires party affiliation to be declared to vote in state primary elections.

Theoretically, this means that those voters could swing the Republican nomination back toward Hagel. However, the 2006 Senate race saw only 4,104 nonpartisans, just 3% of the total vote, vote in the primary. It may be significant in a close race, though, and if independents are aware that they can vote in the primary, the percentage may be higher. But historically, independents have not had much of an influence on the election.

The Democrats

Here’s where the key difference comes in. I alluded to this above, that Democrats in 2006 switched parties to vote in the governor’s race. Heineman was exceedingly popular – to the bewilderment of those of us who knew his politics. And Osborne, of course, is a demigod in Nebraska.

So the state party, in their infinite wisdom, decided to concede this race from the start, and because of their negligence, saw thousands of Democrats leave the party to vote in the Republican Primary, and leaving Democrats in nonpartisan races at a serious disadvantage.

A Lincoln businessman named David Hahn got into the race, but with limited resources and a state party that didn’t give him the time of day or any respect, it was a campaign that died on the runway. Now, Hahn could have done things differently. No one, in my opinion, had more limited resources or got treated as poorly by the state party as Jim Esch, but he performed better than any Democratic congressional candidate has in NE-02 for more than a decade. Hahn got less than 25% of the vote. Much of the blame for that has to rest at his feet.

Bruning may be an even worse story, though. The Democratic Party didn’t even bother to field a candidate against him for Attorney General (which led to this light-hearted Facebook campaign we started at UNO). Bruning still ended up spending $300,000 on ads, in an unopposed race. This was the first public sign that he was going to be running for Senate in 2008.

Now, I want to say that I feel the people responsible for those decisions and those attitudes within the state party are no longer employed by the Nebraska Democratic Party. I’m optimistic that the NDP isn’t going to concede a race before the primary this time around.

One of the key differences among Democrats this time, though, is that Jon Bruning would be an unacceptable choice as a U.S. Senator. So a credible candidate can – and likely will – run and get the support of Nebraska Democrats.

The Issues
They didn’t exist in the 2006 campaign. The most controversial issue that came up during the 2006 primary was the Omaha school segregation bill, which Heineman signed into law, and Osborne denounced. That didn’t exactly help Osborne among Republican primary voters, as a few prominent Democratic legislators quickly endorsed Osborne for Governor. That was late April 2006, less than a month before the primary.

This one will be all about the issues, while Chuck Hagel will seek to make it about character, knowing he can’t expect to win a Republican nomination if the focus is on the war or immigration. Bruning’s going to have to fight to keep the focus away from his past political beliefs, which Hagel’s people have been hammering hard for the last week.

The Civil War
This has been brewing for years, as Bruning’s faction has been trying to dethrone Hagel as the king of the Nebraska Republican Party. Heineman’s victory last May was a victory for Hagel. And everything in the Nebraska GOP in the last several years has some tie to this ongoing fight. (For a deeper background on Heineman-Hagel and Bruning, see this post). While the Osborne-Heineman race remained above the fray much of the time, this race has the potential to tear the Republican Party apart, and provide a real opening for the Democrats to make up some ground. If they purge Chuck Hagel, who votes with Bush 95% of the time, who’s next?

UPDATE: Looks like Hagel’s in it. Whatever his ultimate decision, it doesn’t look like retirement is on the table anymore, and running for President seems increasingly unlikely, but Hagel’s holding a high-dollar fundraiser in Omaha next month.

Capito (WV-02): civility lasts only one hour

From Rep. Shelley Moore Capito’s web site (up today, but strangely with tomorrow’s date listed):

“However, those of us who have the privilege to serve in Congress would do well to remember that it is acceptable to disagree as long as we remain agreeable. Too often, debate moves away from the respected differences we hold and evolves into overly partisan vitriol that serves no one.

Also from her web site:

Instead, we were presented with a bill that gives the enemy our playbook while adding billions of dollars of budget-busting spending that has nothing to do with providing for our troops. 

“By giving our enemy a date-certain timeline for withdrawal, we are simply asking them to duck into the shadows and wait for us to leave.  Such timelines hog-tie the hands of our commanders in the field and essentially hand our enemy a roadmap to victory.

Saying that Democrats are aiding the enemy because they call benchmarks for the Iraqis to provide their own security is “civil” debate? Calling a bill that provides billions in additional health care dollars for U.S. veterans injured in the Iraq war “pork” is civil?

Shelley Moore Capito preaching civility is like her old friend and fellow Republican Mark Foley calling for tougher laws to stop online sexual predators of children.

If she wants more civility and less “partisan vitriol” in Congress she should begin with herself.

But Can He Win Statewide? (NC-Sen)

As always, crossposted at BlueNC and DailyKos.

One of the most commonly asked questions about Brad Miller running for Senate against Elizabeth Dole is from people who dont think Brad Miller can win statewide. 

How can I answer this question?

I could wax poetic about Brad’s abilities to appeal to voters statewide.  Or I could tell you things about him that make me think that he can talk to rural voters and voters in a big city.

And then you could give me all the reasons you disagree.  But where would that leave us?

The only way I can think of objectively answering this is to offer an analysis of Brad’s past election results.  For reference I have included a map of Brad’s district.  This district was drawn for a Democrat to win, but it is only slightly Democratic.  Cook has its PVI as D+2.

As you can see, NC-13 contains all of Caswell and Person counties.  It also encompasses large portions of Granville and Rockingham counties.  All 4 of these counties are rather rural, and Republican.  Although the most Republican areas of the county are excluded from NC-13, they do not add up to many people.  These 4 counties are especially important because their rural nature means they are very similar to other areas throughout the state that Brad must be competitive in to beat Dole.

To the numbers.

For this analysis, I looked at Brad’s results in these 4 counties in 2002 compared to the numbers from the Bowles v Dole race in 2002, and Brad’s results in 2004 compared to both Bowles and Kerry/Edwards.

2002
Granville County
Brad Miller 4,236
Carolyn Grant 3,759

Erskine Bowles 6,146
Elizabeth Dole 5,511

Person County
Brad Miller 5,054
Carolyn Grant 4,589

Erskine Bowles 4,444
Elizabeth Dole 5,873

Caswell County
Brad Miller 4,113
Carolyn Grant 2,320

Erskine Bowles 3,615
Elizabeth Dole 3,049

Rockingham County
Brad Miller 12,005
Carolyn Grant 9,965

Erskine Bowles 12,062
Elizabeth Dole 13,899

2004
Granville County
Brad Miller 7,184
Virginia Johnson 5,955

Erskine Bowles 9,806
Richard Burr 8,447

George Bush 9,491
John Kerry 9,057

Person County
Brad Miller 8,399
Virginia Johnson 6,291

Erskine Bowles 6,701
Richard Burr 8,212

George Bush 8,973
John Kerry 6,198

Caswell County
Brad Miller 5,737
Virginia Johnson 3,374

Erskine Bowles 4,737
Richard Burr 4,559

George Bush 4,868
John Kerry 4,539

Rockingham County
Brad Miller 16,580
Virginia Johnson 15,525

Erskine Bowles 15,435
Richard Burr 21,224

George Bush 22,840
John Kerry 14,430

So, what does that all mean?
Personally, I think the numbers speak for themselves.  In these 4 counties, the combined vote totals for 2002 show Brad winning by about 4800 votes.  Dole won those same counties by a little over 2000 votes.  In 2004, Brad won these 4 counties by 6800 votes.  Bowles lost them by 5800 and Kerry lost by almost 12,000 votes.

These are not tiny little swings.  Brad won his race by about the same percentage as Dole beat Bowles.  Yet, in these specific rural areas, he did even better Dole did.  Obviously the differences between all of these races is rather large.  Bowles v Dole garnered national attention, and was incredibly expensive.  By comparison, Brad spent under a million dollars in 2002 with his opponent spending about 400,000 dollars.

These details about the nature of these races can explain a lot of this.  However, to me these results show that Brad can win over rural voters.  In fact, I wont just say that Sherrod Brown proved you can win a swing state while being proud about your progressive values.  I will say that Brad himself has already proved that a progressive who doesnt hide from his record can win in rural North Carolina.

Now, I understand that many will not be convinced by these results.  Some will say that Brad cant win votes in rural areas until November 4th.  However, I hope that those that are unsure will find my collection of data convincing.  If you do, please think about sending 5 dollars to the draft page on ActBlue.

FL-HD49: Dems Pick Up GOP-Held Seat

From the AP, word of a state lege seat pickup in a Florida special election:

Democrat Darren Soto narrowly defeated Republican Tony Suarez on Tuesday by just 285 votes for an open House seat in central Florida.

Soto, an attorney, won the Orange and Osceola County seat with 51.9 percent of the votes, according to unofficial election results from the state. He beat Suarez, who received 48.1 percent of the votes.

This adds to the six state House seats Democrats picked up in the November election.

“The election of Darren Soto bodes extremely well for the future of the Democratic Party in Florida,” Florida Democratic Party Chair Karen Thurman said. “In the pivotal I-4 (Interstate-4) corridor, the Party’s strong ground operation delivered a majority of voters who chose a Democrat because they want government to focus on positive change for the people.”

Soto replaces Rep. John Quinones, a Republican who quit to run for a new seat on the Osceola County Commission.

Nice work, Florida Dems. Hopefully the sign of more good things to come.

NE-Sen: Bruning’s Polling Shows 9 Point Lead Over Hagel

(Very interesting, indeed. – promoted by James L.)

Things are getting very interesting in Nebraska. Bruning released poll results today showing a 9 point lead over incumbent Senator Chuck Hagel among likely Republican voters.

From the Lincoln Journal Star:

Attorney General Jon Bruning said Monday he led Sen. Chuck Hagel by 9 points in a survey last week of likely Republican voters in a 2008 GOP Senate primary contest.

The poll of 404 Republicans was conducted by Bruning’s pollster, Dresner, Wickers and Associates of San Francisco. In a head-to-head matchup, Bruning led by 47 percent to 38 percent.

If the race was between Bruning and former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub, according to the polling, Bruning holds a 55-16% lead.

Full poll results are available here.

Race Tracker: NE-Sen

Exams

I have to write four final exams over the next three days.  (Ugh.)  Needless to say, I don’t think I’ll have time for any blogging at all during the first half of the week.  Sorry about that.

Feel free to use this as an extra open thread.  And, to keep the discussion going, how about we do this:

In the comments, list the 10 most vulnerable House Republican seats and the 10 most vulnerable House Democratic seats in the 2008 election.  Rank each incumbent in order of vulnerability, from most threatened to least.

Have at it!

CA-37: Rep. Millender-McDonald Dies

From the AP:

Rep. Juanita Millender-McDonald, D-Calif., died early Sunday of cancer, an aide said. Millender-McDonald, who was 68, died at her home in Carson, Calif., said her chief of staff, Bandele McQueen.

McQueen could provide no details on what form of cancer Millender-McDonald had.

The congresswoman had asked for a four- to six-week leave of absence from the House last week to deal with her illness.

She was in her seventh term representing a Southern California district that includes Compton, Long Beach and parts of Los Angeles.

She was active until very recently, in particular establishing a task force just a few weeks ago to look into contested results of the FL-13 race. May she rest in peace.

277 House Races have candidates – 435 here we come

The 2008 elections won’t only be notable for electing a Democratic President. The 2008 house races will give us a rare opportunity to increase our majority as well as test our defence.

It is great then to see candidates bobbing up and announcing so early in the cycle.

And the news on the filing front is great, courtesy of the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki. Take a look also at DCCritters.

Below the fold for all the news.
(cross posted at MyDD and Daily Kos)

277 races filled! six in the last 2 weeks alone. This of course includes 233 districts held by Democratic Congresscritters (yeh yeh I know some will not run but I am assuming we will find candidates in those districts!)

But we also have 44 GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic opponents.

So without further ado:
1) The GOP held districts with confirmed Democratic challengers are as follows:
AZ-02,
AZ-03,
AR-03,
CA-04,
CA-26,
CA-41, [In the event of a special election but he will run in 2008 methinks!]
CA-48,
CT-04,
FL-01,
FL-09,
FL-13, [Either through the House of Reps investigation or Jennings has committed to another run.]
FL-21,
FL-25,
GA-10 [SPECIAL ELECTION JUNE 19TH],
ID-01,
IL-10,
IL-14,
IN-06,
IA-04,
IA-05,
MI-07,
MN-06,
MO-09,
MT-AL,
NE-02,
NV-03,
NJ-07,
NJ-11,
NM-02,
NY-25,
NY-29,
NC-08,
NC-09,
OH-02,
OH-07,
OH-15,
PA-03,
PA-15,
TX-04,
TX-08,
TX-13,
VA-06,
WA-08,
WI-01,

2) The following 3 GOP held districts have candidates that are expected to run but are yet to confirm:
NJ-05,
OH-01,
OH-14,

3) We also have the following 37 GOP held districts have rumoured candidates – please note that some of these “rumours” are extremely tenuous!
AL-01,
AL-04,
AK-AL,
AZ-01,
AZ-06,
CA-03,
CA-42,
CA-45,
CO-04,
DE-AL,
FL-06,
FL-12,
KY-05,
MI-09,
MN-02,
MO-06,
NE-03,
NJ-02,
NJ-03,
NJ-04,
NM-01,
NY-03,
NY-13,
NY-26,
NC-03,
OH-16,
PA-06,
PA-18,
TN-07,
TX-02,
TX-03,
TX-10,
TX-14,
UT-03,
VA-01,
VA-11,
WV-02,

4) And last but not least the following 118 districts have not a single rumoured candidate:
AL-02,
AL-03,
AL-06,
CA-02,
CA-19,
CA-21,
CA-22,
CA-24,
CA-25,
CA-40,
CA-44,
CA-46,
CA-49,
CA-50,
CA-52,
CO-05,
CO-06,
FL-04,
FL-05,
FL-07,
FL-08,
FL-10,
FL-14,
FL-15,
FL-18,
FL-24,
GA-01,
GA-03,
GA-06,
GA-07,
GA-09,
GA-11,
ID-02,
IL-06,
IL-11,
IL-13,
IL-15,
IL-16,
IL-18,
IL-19,
IN-03,
IN-04,
IN-05,
KS-01,
KS-04,
KY-01,
KY-02,
KY-04,
LA-01,
LA-04,
LA-05,
LA-06,
LA-07,
MD-01,
MD-06,
MI-02,
MI-03,
MI-04,
MI-06,
MI-08,
MI-10,
MI-11,
MI-12,
MN-03,
MS-01,
MS-03,
MO-02,
MO-07,
MO-08,
NE-02,
NV-02,
NY-23,
NC-05,
NC-06,
NC-10,
OH-03,
OH-04,
OH-05,
OH-08,
OH-12,
OK-01,
OK-03,
OK-04,
OK-05,
OR-02,
PA-05,
PA-09,
PA-16,
PA-19,
SC-01,
SC-02,
SC-03,
SC-04,
TN-01,
TN-02,
TN-03,
TX-01,
TX-05,
TX-06,
TX-11,
TX-12,
TX-19,
TX-21,
TX-24,
TX-26,
TX-31,
TX-32,
UT-01,
VA-02,
VA-04,
VA-05,
VA-07,
VA-10,
WA-04,
WA-05,
WI-05,
WI-06,
WY-AL,

Please note that in some races others at the racetracker site have confirmed candidates that I haven’t. This is because to satisfy me a confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running. Others are not so rigorous.

Praise to those states where we allready have a full slate of house candidates – Arkansas, Connecticut, Hawaii, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota and Vermont
Praise also to those State parties that have obviously been very aggressive in candidate recruitment. Ohio and Florida for instance have nearly full slates.

Tips, rumours and whatnot in the comments please.

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

Given that I’ve been cramming for exams all day, I don’t have much on my radar as far as discussion items go, but here’s one thing: what the heck is up with Bob Kerrey?

Share what’s on your mind.



Sunday Update: Former State Rep. Glen Maxley over at Burnt Orange Report brings us this fun report of a wildly successful DSCC fundraiser in San Antonio this weekend.  The event brought in $1.1 million, far surpassing its $150,000 goal and doubling the record of any DSCC fundraiser in Texas history.  There’s some other interesting tidbits included in the report as well, including the fact that Schumer considers Texas a possible pick-up state in 2008 (of course, what else would he say in Texas?), and some eyebrow-raising poll numbers from Kentucky, where Sen. Mitch McConnell and Rep. Ben Chandler are apparently tied in a hypothetical matchup.