House 2008: Open Seat Watch (August)

It’s been a little while since we last took stock of all the potential ’08 vacancies in the House of Representatives, but much has changed since our last installment in this series back in April.

Following the format of the previous diaries, I’ve put together two charts: one tracking definite retirements and the other potential retirements, resignations, and primary defeates, listing each district by its incumbent, PVI, and the representative’s age on election day in 2008.

Definite House Retirements

District Incumbent Party PVI Age Notes
CA-52 Hunter R R+9.3 60 Running for President
CO-02 Udall D D+8.1 58 Running for Senate
IL-04 Gutierrez D D+30.7 54 Retiring
IL-18 LaHood R R+5.5 62 Retiring
ME-01 Allen D D+6.2 63 Running for Senate

Since last time, we’ve added Democrat Tom Allen of Maine, whose official entry in Maine’s U.S. Senate race back in May allows us to mark his House resignation as definite. We’ve also added Ray LaHood, whose district tilts to the Republicans in Presidential contests. However, in 2006, Democrats picked up seven seats with PVIs redder than IL-18th’s (R+5.5). It should come as no surprise, then, that the DCCC has already begun its recruiting process in the district, and that state Sen. John Sullivan is seriously considering a bid.

Potential House Retirements

District Incumbent Party PVI Age Notes
AK-AL Young R R+14.3 75 Under investigation
AL-02 Everett R R+13.2 72 Speculation/Rumors
AZ-01 Renzi R R+2.2 50 Under investigation
CA-04 Doolittle R R+10.9 58 Under investigation
CA-24 Gallegly R R+4.8 64 Botched a retirement attempt in 2006
CA-25 McKeon R R+7.1 70 Speculation
CA-41 Lewis R R+9.0 74 Under investigation
DE-AL Castle R D+6.5 69 Health issues
FL-10 Young R D+1.1 78 Age issues/Speculation
IL-03 Lipinski D D+10.3 42 Primary challenge
IL-14 Hastert R R+4.8 67 Rumors
IL-16 Manzullo R R+4.5 64 Speculation
IN-07 Carson D D+8.7 70 Health issues
IA-03 Boswell D D+1.4 74 Health issues
IA-04 Latham R D+0.4 60 Possible Senate run
IA-05 King R R+8.4 59 Possible Senate run
LA-01 Jindal R R+18.5 37 Running for Governor
LA-02 Jefferson D D+27.8 61 Indicted
LA-06 Baker R R+6.5 60 Possible Senate run
MD-01 Gilchrest R R+9.8 62 Primary challenge
MD-04 Wynn D D+29.8 57 Primary challenge
MD-06 Bartlett R R+12.8 82 Age issues
MI-03 Ehlers R R+9.0 74 Speculation
NC-09 Myrick R R+12.2 67 Speculation
NY-23 McHugh R R+0.2 60 Speculation
OH-02 Schmidt R R+13.1 56 Primary challenge
OH-07 Hobson R R+6.0 56 Rumors
OH-16 Regula R R+3.6 84 Age issues/Speculation
TN-09 Cohen D D+18.1 59 Primary challenge
TX-04 Hall R R+17.1 85 Age issues
VA-01 Davis, JoAnn R R+8.9 58 Rumors/Health issues
VA-11 Davis R R+0.6 59 Possible Senate run
WY-AL Cubin R R+19.4 61 Speculation

A bunch of new names this month: a recent Roll Call article named Reps. McHugh (NY-23) and Manzullo (IL-16) as possible retirements. Both of those districts–but McHugh’s R+0.2 district in particular–could see explosive races in an open seat scenario. I’ve also added several incumbents who could conceivably fall victim to primary challenges: Democrats Cohen (TN-09), Lipinski (IL-03), & Wynn (MD-04), and Republicans Gilchrest & Schmidt. Other crumb-bum Republican incumbents on shaky ground may face primaries of their own: Doolittle, Cubin, and Don Young are all ripe candidates who may be forced to smell the glove in a primary next year.

Any other retirement rumors floating through the tubes?