Month: October 2007

Albuquerque Mayor and Senate candidate Martin Chavez (D) speaks out on the state of the campaign so far.  Saying that he thinks that he gets “a bad rap from progressives” for his pro-business proclivities, Chavez takes stock of the two potential opponents that local and national Democrats hope will also enter the primary, Rep. Tom Udall and Lt. Gov. Diane Denish:

Chávez said he isn’t worried. Denish has already raised more than $1 million for a 2010 gubernatorial run, and with Chávez abandoning his gubernatorial bid to instead run for Senate, he said it wouldn’t make sense for her to enter the race. He said he is “not concerned” even if she does enter the race.

He also said he is confident he would defeat Udall in a primary.

“Philosophically, he’s so far to the left,” Chávez said. “I’d rather not have him in the race, but that’s a challenge I’d not shy away from.”

Classy for Chavez to use baseless right-wing talking points in order to put down a respected party player who would likely whip Mayor Marty’s ass in a primary battle.  Chavez might want to take a look at the polls again and see who has more mainstream appeal in the state: him or Udall.  Big hint: Udall would put this race in the bag for Democrats, while a Chavez candidacy would be surrounded by question marks.

Let me be clear: if we’re saddled with Chavez, I’ll sigh heavily and deal with it.  But I think it’s extremely telling that Chavez is already speaking out of school and reading out of the Republican play book in order to prove his strength in a hypothetical primary.  Completely and utterly unnecessary.

You may have seen some of the  YouTube drama surrounding MI-09 and candidate Gary Peters. Peters is currently serving as the Griffin Endowed Chair of American Government at Central Michigan University. As a former State Senator, State Lottery Commissioner, and Lt. Commander in the Navy Reserve he brings a unique perspective to the university.

In fact, the story was on the frontpage of AOL.com today.

Another unique perspective found at CMU belongs to young conservative Dennis Lennox. Lennox has been complaining that Peters should not be able to run for Congress at teach at CMU at the same time.

The root of his complaint poses a very significant question: should you be able to hold a job and run for office? We don’t mind that incumbents, who earn a salary from the taxpayers, campaign for their re-election. Should a candidate have to be independently wealthy to run for office?

First I should point out that Peters’ salary comes from a privately funded endowment. In fact, Robert Griffin (a former Republican Senator and MI Supreme Court Justice) who funds the endowment is supportive of Peters. The first two Griffin Chairs were prominent Republicans.

If we limit ourselves to just those who can afford to take time off work to run, given the ever quickening pace of the campaign trail, we certainly are cutting off our options. How will we get the candidates ready to stand up for us, not special interests, if they have to give up their paycheck to run?

We certainly wouldn’t have candidates ready to stand up and fight to end the war. We know the mega wealthy don’t care about protecting our jobs, since they are the ones that promote outsourcing. We’d be lucky to get candidates that want to provide access to quality, affordable health care.

In Michigan last year we saw Amway CEO Dick Devos spend over $41 million in his run for Governor. But over $35 million was his own money! The pundits are saying MI-09 in 2008 could be the most expensive Congressional race in Michigan’s history. Do we want to limit our choices of our representative to the People’s House to only millionaires?

I don’t. Who hasn’t worked a part time job in order to pay the bills while in school or volunteering your service? Gary Peters is running for Congress to provide representation to those in MI-09 who feel no one has stood up for them.

I can see why conservatives would try and use any means necessary to stop Gary. He is Knollenberg’s first opponent that has ever held office before. He has a long list of endorsements, including the AFL-CIO, MI Building Trades, Triangle Pride PAC, and nearly every MI-09 elected official. He has already raised over $215k.

I’ve created an ActBlue fundraising page called “The People’s House” for those of you who believe that candidates should be allowed to work part time while running for office. Whether they are Professors, Teachers, Doctors, or Farmers…we need to support candidate’s that represent US!

Support Gary Peters at ActBlue! Donate to the People’s House page to let everyone know that Congress is not just for millionaires.

Two well-placed sources, independent of each other, have contacted the Swing State Project to let us know that NC State Senator Kay Hagan (D-Greensboro) has reconsidered her earlier decision and will challenge Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole.

Blue NC had picked up earlier rumors that Hagan might be back in from a local Democratic strategist:

Even before Jim Neal outed himself, Kay Hagan was looking at getting back in the U.S. Senate race. Now she’s getting more encouragement – from home and from Washington. Hagan, a state senator from Greensboro, had looked at running earlier. She pulled back because Senator Charles Schumer from New York, who chairs the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, was intent on recruiting Grier Martin. Martin eventually opted out.

Now Hagan is reconsidering. She’s being wooed by North Carolina Democrats – and by Schumer. The garrulous New Yorker’s first task was to eat crow with Hagan. 

Public Policy Polling recently pegged Dole's approval at 44% with 41% disapproval. If our sources are correct, these numbers certainly suggest Hagan would have something to work with.

Well, this one certainly is coming as a surprise.  The NY Daily News reports that veteran Democratic Rep. Mike McNulty of New York will announce his retirement soon:

Several well-placed sources confirm that Rep. Mike McNulty, a veteran Democrat from the 21st DC, is poised to announce he will not seek re-election next year – a move that will likely touch off a heated primary battle. […]

McNulty’s spokeswoman refused to confirm or deny the congressman’s plans, but did say he is scheduled to make an announcement about his future on Monday at the Crowne Plaza in Albany.

Among those mentioned as possible contenders for the seat, which is located in a Democratic district and very unlikely to change hands: Albany Mayor Jerry Jennings, Assemblyman Ron Canestrari and Schenectady Mayor Brian Stratton, whose father, Samuel Stratton, held the seat until he withdrew from the race due to health issues.

If true, McNulty would be only the third Democrat to announce his retirement from the House next year — and the only one so far who is doing so without seeking to move on to a statewide office.

McNulty’s district is pretty safe territory for Democrats, with a PVI of D+8.7.  Kerry won it by 12 points in 2004, and Gore by 17 points in ’00.

(H/T: The Albany Project)

Race Tracker: NY-21

UPDATE (David): McNulty made it official on Monday.

The Omaha World-Herald takes stock of the potential Democratic candidates for the Nebraska Senate race — all two of them.  Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey and ’06 3rd District nominee Scott Kleeb won’t shut the door on a run just yet:

The party has no candidates at this time and their best contender, Fahey, is less than enthusiastic about running a statewide race. The Omaha mayor said that he was not ruling it out but that he has lots of work to do in Omaha.

Fahey has taken an active and high-profile role in trying to keep the College World Series in Omaha. His work in that arena may make it easier for him to rebuff Democratic efforts to recruit him into the race. […]

Fahey said he will decide over the next 30 days whether to run.

“To call it an inconvenient time is an understatement,” he said.

Kleeb, who lost a congressional bid to U.S. Rep. Adrian Smith in western Nebraska last year, also may be a hard sell. […]

He said that he was disappointed in Kerrey’s decision and that he would wait to see what Fahey decided.

If Fahey stays out of the race, Kleeb said, he would consider running.

“It would have to be sooner than later. These campaigns these days take a long time,” said Kleeb, who has about $70,000 left in his congressional campaign committee.

It’s no doubt a daunting decision to go up against a formidable GOP foe in Mike Johanns.  Frankly, I’m surprised that Fahey is still thinking about it, even hesitantly.  However, if one of these two guys get in the ring, and if Bruning bloodies up Johanns, there’s still an outside chance that this race could become interesting.

(H/T: New Nebraska Network)

TIME Magazine dips its toes into the 2008 Senate race scene in its list of the “top ten Senate races to watch“. (H/T: S2G)  Here’s an excerpt from their Louisiana page, talking up the profile of state Treasurer and recently-converted Republican John N. Kennedy:

Kennedy very nearly beat Republican David Vitter for his Senate seat in 2004; in a year that favored Republicans (Bush won Louisiana with 57 % of the vote) Vitter just barely squeaked in with 51%.

Funny.  That’s not how I remember the 2004 Senate race in Louisiana going down:

David Vitter (R): 51%
Chris John (D): 29%
John Kennedy (D): 15%
MoE: 0.0%

Yeah, Kennedy was really breathing down Vitter’s neck there.

That’s not the only mistake in the piece, of course.  On the Colorado page, TIME calls Rep. Mark Udall (D) “the son of the legendary Colorado Congressman Mo Udall”.  Mo, of course, represented Arizona in the House.

I feel genuinely sorry for anyone still stuck relying on the dead tree media for their horse race coverage.

Now that former state Rep. Suzanne Kosmas is formally in the race against Jack Abramoff’s golfing pal, Rep. Tom Feeney of Florida, the DCCC has just released some polling numbers that they commissioned from Garin-Hart-Yang back in July — and the results aren’t pretty for Feeney.  The full polling memo can be viewed here (PDF file).

In a straight head-to-head match-up, here’s how Feeney fares (likely voters, no leaners):

Tom Feeney (R-inc): 42%
Suzanne Kosmas (D): 23%
MoE: ±5.0%

Mr. Feeney is well under that magical “50%” mark against an opponent who only has 19% name recognition in the district, according to the poll (vs. 86% for Feeney).  Additionally, the poll finds that Feeney has a net negative job approval (46% fair/poor; 36% excellent/good).

After hearing a brief positive bio for each candidate, Feeney leads Kosmas by a 45%-40% margin.  After informing voters of Feeney’s involvement with convicted felon Jack Abramoff, Kosmas jumps ahead to 45%-37%.  Additionally, 58% “express major doubts after hearing about Feeney’s support for privatizing Social Security”.

And yes — I’m well aware that this kind of a “message testing” poll does not necessarily mean that Feeney is slated to lose the election.  But with the race still in its formative stages, Kosmas has some seriously good material to work with in order to give Feeney a major challenge.  I expect this to be a tight race.

Another note from the poll: while Bush won the district by 10% in 2004, on the generic presidential ballot, the Democratic candidate edges the Republican by a 42%-41% margin.

Update: The Politico picks up the poll, too, and gets a hilariously delusional comment from Feeney’s office:

Responding, Feeney’s chief of staff, Tonnie Wybensinger, said, “Feeney has always had a 24 percent unfavorable rating because 25 percent of the district is liberal – not enough to elect Kosmas. Kosmas’ appeal right now is that no one knows who she is and once people do know, that appeal will diminish.”

Tom Feeney: he’s not only out of his league — he’s out of his mind.  I should take this opportunity to note that only 53% of voters knew of Feeney’s Abramoff connections, according to the poll.  Can’t wait for some more “voter education” here.

Surprise, surprise: Bob Kerrey, last seen burnishing his Cornhusker credentials by hobnobbing with NY Gov. Eliot Spitzer and writing op-eds in the Daily News, is taking a pass on the Senate race.

With popular former Gov. Mike Johanns (R) in the race, and Kerrey’s months of indecisiveness clearing the field of other potential challengers, it’s not hard to imagine Democrats putting up only token opposition in Nebraska next year.

Eric Kleefeld over at TPM writes that “an inability to win this seat would essentially end any hopes by Democrats of reaching 60 Senate seats this cycle”.  I’m not convinced that 60 seats was ever really in reach in the first place, even with a hypothetical Kerrey candidacy.  Too many variables would have to break in just the right way in order for Democrats to even come close to such a broad sweep.  Perhaps, with Kerrey’s decision, a sense of normalcy will return to prognosticators who are openly hyping the magical 60 mark as some kind of benchmark for DSCC Chair Chuck Schumer’s success next year.

(And yeah, count me down as another guy who’s more than happy not to have to deal with the Liebermanesque statements of the week that a Bob Kerrey campaign would produce.)

The 14th congressional race had a forum in Kane County on October 23rd. All three candidates were present. Jotham Stein was very impressive. He was the only candidate to answer all the questions and gave real solutions. He pointed out the differences between where he stands on the issues and where other candidates stand on the issues. He was concerned that Foster supports a national ID card. He does not agree with Fosters statements about a National ID card.

Now that a Senate bid appears to be off the table for Rep. Tom Davis (R-VA), Roll Call reports that the congressman might throw in the towel completely in an announcement that could come as soon as Thursday:

Published reports Monday night indicated that Davis is rethinking his long-awaited Senate bid, and Congressional sources said Tuesday that a run for re-election also may be off the table for the seven-term Congressman. […]

Now some knowledgeable sources on Capitol Hill are saying that if he’s not moving up then Davis likely will be moving out, regardless of the fact that he would be a strong favorite for an eighth term in 2008.

Davis admitted earlier this year that he considered retiring before the 2006 election. He said he decided to run again in part because he believed the poor political climate in the previous cycle would have enabled Democrats to pick up his Northern Virginia seat.

A Davis retirement would open up a district that’s been trending hard in the Democratic direction over the past decade.  Al Gore lost the 11th district by a 7 point margin in 2000, but Bush squeaked by Kerry by a single point in ’04.  In recent statewide victories for Democrats, the 11th has voted strongly for Warner, Kaine and Webb.

If Davis wants to challenge Sen. Webb in 2012, a retirement would make little sense — especially if he traded in his current job for a plum gig as a DC lobbyist, as some are speculating.  But perhaps Davis just wants to cash in while he still can.