I am all for running everywhere, and the 50 state strategy.
But neither we nor the Republicans are running everywhere (at least not yet!) In this series, I will look at where we are not running (I am not going to look at where Republicans are not running, as I have no desire to help Republicans, however modestly)
This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU.
crossposted to swingstateproject
These are all states with filing deadlines in late May and early June
The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of tShe district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics (details here . I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.
NV has 3 districts, 2 Republican, 1 Democratic
CO has 7 districts, 3 Republican, 4 Democratic
WY has 1 district, held by a Republican
AK has 1 district, held by a Republican
MA has 10 seats, all Democratic
The districts held by Democrats are
district Cook Prob Repub Incumbent Challenger? rating
CO-01 D+18 .28 DeGette No Safe
CO-02 D+8 .62 Udall (retiring Yes Prob safe for
to run for senate) Yes Dems
CO-03 R+6 .64 Salazar No Safe
CO-07 D+2 .40 Perlmutter No Safe
MA-01 D+15 .67 Olver No Safe
MA-02 D+13 .56 Neal No Safe
MA-03 D+13 .54 McGovern Yes Safe
MA-04 D+19 .58 Frank Yes Safe
MA-05 D+11 .56 Tsongas No Mostly safe
MA-06 D+11 .66 Tierney Yes Safe
MA-07 D+19 .48 Markey No Safe
MA-08 D+33 .11 Capuano No Safe
MA-09 D+15 .45 Lynch No Safe
MA-10 D+9 .59 Delahunt No Safe
NV-01 D+9 .21 Berkley Yes Safe
Those held by Republicans:
Alaska. 1 person per square mile. It’s BIG. If that were the population density of Manhattan, where I live, there would be 23 people here.
Young, first elected in 1973, had his toughest race since 1994 in 2006: He was held to 57% by Diane Benson, even though Benson spent 1/10 as much. He might retire. He’s tied to Abramoff, he’s tied to VECO, he’s gotten illegal cash. And he’s getting old.
Confirmed challengers include: Ethan Berkowitz (who was leading Young 49-42 in a poll commissioned in December by Daily Kos); Jake Metcalf ; and the 2006 candidate: Diane Benson ; and possibly Anchorage mayor Mark Begrich.
CO-04 R+9 .64
CO-04 is shaped like a backwards F, with the long side bordering NE and KS, the top bordering NE and WY.
Musgrave, first elected in 2002, has gotten declining percentages: 55% in 2002, 51% in 2004, and 46% in 2006.
This year, she is being challenged by Betsey Markey
CO-05 R+16 .49
CO-05 is pretty much the center of the state, including Colorado Springs
Lamborn, first elected in 2006, won with substantially less than his predecessor usually did.
There is no confirmed challenger
CO-06 R+10 .83
CO-06 is in the middle of the state, including Littleton and Castle Rock
Tancredo, first elected in 1998, is retiring.
The only confirmed Democrat is Mike Collins
NV-02 R+9 .51
NV-02 is nearly all of the state, except for the Las Vegas area. It is the largest district, except for single district states.
Heller, first elected in 2006, had a narrow (50-45) win then.
There are no confirmed challengers
NV-03 D+1 .38
NV-03 is a Y shaped district, composed of most of the suburbs of Las Vegas
Porter, first elected in 2002, had a close race in 2006 against Tessa Hafen (he won 48-47, and outspent her 2-1).
There are three confirmed challengers: Andrew Martin ; Barry Michaels ; and Robert Daskas.
WY-AL R+19 .64
Wyoming has fewer people than any other state
Cubin, first elected in 1994, is retiring
Several Republicans are running, and one Democrat: Gary Trauner who lost by only 1,002 votes in 2006, and who is shown with a slight lead in a poll.
AK is a free-for-all
CO, our seats are safe, CO-04 might be competitive, and CO-06, while a Republican district, has an open seat.
MA – well, we can’t pick up any seats here! But I don’t see us losing any either
NV-03 has some potential, it seems.
WY-AL is also possible