IL-14 Roundup #5

in a race like this one, after the financial disclosure reports are put up, there’s still things to watch for.  first, there’s the personal funds contributions reports like this one (PDF), this one (PDF), this one (PDF), this one (PDF) and this one (PDF) from bill foster.  these are paired with reports of opposition to personal funds like this one and this one from john laesch along with this one, this one and this one from jotham stein.  these are great fun for people running against a self-funder — well, when the fec has a working majority.  right now, there’s not a thing that the fec can do.  you can blame bush, if you want, for that, too.

then there’s the 48 hour notice for contributions in excess of $1,000 or more for the 20 days before an election.  these tell us who’s still aggressively raising money — which is more important, since the millionaire’s amendment has been tripped in this election (allowing laesch and stein to raise considerably more than $2300 from each contributor).  foster has raised at least $18,900 in new monies that required 48 hour notices.  laesch has raised at least $5,500 in new monies that required 48 hour notices.  and stein has raised at least $4,100 in new monies that required 48 hour notices.

foster racked up four more local newspaper endorsements this week: the aurora beacon news, the daily herald, the elgin courier news and the oswego ledger-sentinel.  it seems that foster received all the newspaper endorsements in the district.  laesch did, however, pick up the endorsement of the niu student newspaper.

there were several accounts of the cbs debate: the daily herald, cbs’ own version and the beacon news, another debate sponsor.  the daily herald also covered a recent foster mailing, where he called himself a “paul simon democrat.”  

I asked Simon’s daughter, Sheila Simon, if she’d seen the ad. She hadn’t. But the former member of the Carbondale City Council certainly didn’t take offense.

“Certainly lots of Democrats around that state have annual Paul Simon dinners,” she said. “Anyone who wants to pursue Dad’s line of thinking and associate with him that way, we’re always happy to say yes … It would give him a big kick.”

the beacon news published this article on the candidates:

“I’m not a politician” has been the well-intended, but now common, refrain offered by Democrats in the campaign to replace Rep. Dennis Hastert in the 14th Congressional District.

Meant as a way to distance themselves from party politics and business as usual in Washington, the phrase has provided another common thread linking candidates Bill Foster, John Laesch, Joe Serra and Jotham Stein.

From a policy-making standpoint, the quartet’s overall philosophies align fundamentally and closely when it comes to, among others, withdrawing troops from Iraq, border security and reducing the middle class tax burden.

Agree as they might, the candidates often are the only ones able to point out what makes them different

then there’s the attention given to how much money in the race — especially on the republican side.  the beacon news wrote about the $1.6 million jim oberweis dropped into the race.  the chicago tribune also had a story on the money angle.

The race to replace former House Speaker Dennis Hastert in Congress is turning into one of the most expensive, most bitter and, possibly, most confusing primaries in Illinois this year.

Most expensive because Republican candidates Jim Oberweis, 61, of Sugar Grove, state Sen. Chris Lauzen, 55, of Aurora and Democrat Bill Foster, 52, of Geneva are combining to spend millions.

Most vicious because Oberweis and Lauzen are regularly ripping each other.

And possibly most confusing because the candidates are running not only to replace Hastert next year, but also in a separate primary to complete his unexpired term this year. That means 14th Congressional District voters will cast ballots Feb. 5 in both the regular primary election and the special primary. Once that dust settles, the special general election to finish Hastert’s term will be held March 8.

“Many observers view this district as kind of a bellwether. If the Democrats win on March 8 that’s going to signal a big year for Dems in November,” said Matthew Streb, a Northern Illinois University political science professor.

A Democratic victory would be considered an upset in the solidly Republican district, where President Bush won 55 percent of the vote in the 2004 election and Hastert got 60 percent in 2006.

air america had laesch on the air.  laesch’s blog efforts continued.  they asked for votes for laesch to be the dfa grassroots all star (he didn’t move on).  daddy4mak wonders why laesch hasn’t been front paged at daily kos (donna edwards has been).  downtowner is looking for help in her precincts.  the laesch campaign held a health care forum.  richard bluestein is asking his readers to contribute to laesch (the same post appeared elsewhere, i don’t know how started it).  jassietay2 asks do you believe in miracles?  and rick flosi thinks that ron paul supporters will find something they like in laesch.

in addition, bill foster gave an interview.  his closing television ad is available here.  yinn wrote about foster’s endorsement by the daily herald.  foster also had a new web ad out.

democrats report that the while the laesch campaign has yet to mail, the california nurses association sent a targeted mailer calling laesch the right person on healthcare.  and quentin young recorded a robocall for laesch in the same vein.

the foster campaign reports that:

Obviously, the campaign is getting hectic as we close in on primary Election Day.  Bill was out in the snow this morning greeting commuters at train stations and reminding them to vote, and he’ll be contacting voters door-to-door, on the phone, and in public places every day through the election — except for Super Bowl Sunday.

We’re getting a lot of positive response from NIU students, and we’re opening up another field office in Sycamore, near DeKalb.

i asked all the campaigns what was their final message to voters.  the foster campaign replied:

Well, of course, get out there and vote twice on Tuesday, February 5!

Bill Foster is not a professional politician, and he’s never going to be the loudest voice in the room.  But as a scientist, businessman, and someone who’s lived the 14th District for over two decades, he’ll work hard to represent his constituents, act as an agent of change in Washington, and find solutions to the problems facing this country and this district.

they also noted:

The candidates on the Democratic side have, on balance, run a positive campaign talking about the issues.  The voters, not just in the primary but also in the special election in March, will notice and respect that.  People are sick and tired of the relentless personal attacks and politics-as-usual that we’ve seen among the Republican candidates in this race.

We appreciate all the support we’ve received in the community so far, from the grassroots on up, and look forward to building even more support in the coming weeks.

while all the campaigns are focused on their various gotv, i did want to report the victory parties, as they were lined up.  the laesch campaign is having their victory party at their campaign headquarters (46 W. Downer Place, Aurora).

Parking is available free after 5pm in LOT C. This is on River St, West of the office.

the victory party for the foster campaign is at:

Tavern on the Fox, near our field office in Aurora.  We wanted to provide a space for our volunteers and supporters to have a good time and watch the returns — not only for our race, but also for Super Tuesday.


i read with interest how all three democrats were confident in their (own) victory.  perhaps foster (personally) less so than the others.  strangely, he’s probably the one who should be the most confident.

laesch told one reporter that he had the highest name recognition of the three, which may have been true — before the campaign started.  but after hundreds, maybe thousands, of gross ratings points, at least 8 mailers and the rest of the effort by just one opponent, laesch has no reason to think that’s true now.

a number of laesch supporters have been aghast that i put so much stock in communicated message.  in my experience, message decides elections and you have to put the money in to get the message out.  foster has certainly done that, taking every opportunity to get his message out there.  this will be doubly important as barack obama drives turnout in the democratic race here and in the rest of illinois.

green and gerber’s authoritative book on mobilizing votes (“Get Out the Vote”) has some interesting statistics that really puts this in perspective.  on page 94 (table 8-1: Cost Effectiveness of Get-Out-the-Vote Tactics), the yale professors note that (from their research) direct mail wins one vote per 177 recipients (in partisan households).  door to door, with a persuasion script, garners one vote for every 14 CONTACTS with voters.  leafletting, which downtowner describes here gets you one vote for every 66 registered voters who see it before election day.

these percentages really sets the stage for what we will see next.  foster has dropped 8 mail pieces.  there are approximately 50,000 democrats in il-14 (nice round number), but professional campaigns don’t mail to voters, they mail to households.  and smart campaigns incorporate new information, so that the first round of mail is always a bigger drop than the last round.  doing some rough calculations, i figured that the foster campaign has dropped 265,000 pieces of mail.  what does that mean?  well, for the laesch campaign to have equaled the votes mobilized just from the foster mail drop, they would have had to make actual contact with 21,008 voters in the district.  doing so would have required 1750 hours canvassing (according to the gerber-green statistics) or 218 8 hour days canvassing.

that’s not even taking into consideration the reported 70 field staff that the foster campaign has out, or the likelihood that the foster campaign has knocked on as many, if not more, doors than the laesch campaign.  nor does it consider the fact that one report says that the laesch campaign was leafletting, not canvassing, which has a much higher contact to won vote ratio.

campaigns have advanced considerably from the “mr. smith goes to washington” days.  in the end, laesch didn’t get his message out.  they have been resting on their 2006 laurels, hoping that voters will remember laesch without much reminding and reward them for their grassroots enthusiasm.  i still believe that progressives can win elections virtually anywhere, including in il-14, but not unless they are willing to make the sacrifices needed to win (like raise money, hire an experienced staff, communicate their message to voters on a mass scale, etc).  only one candidate will have the funds and the resources required to win this seat starting on wednesday.  it’s highly unlikely that voters will turn their backs on this fact and choose a lesser known candidate…

More about 2008 House races.

Whilst almost all of the blogospheres attention has been focused on the Presidentials great things have been happening in the House. Below the fold to see the Democratic hits and misses in vulnerable Repub districts as well as a large number of retiring Repub incumbents in vulnerable districts also …………..

Once again go and take a look at the 2008 Race Tracker Wiki.

I thought it was time to have a look at the GOP House districts that generically lean Democratic or only slightly lean Republican to see how we are faring so far this cycle.

So here they are ranked in order of Cook PVI number every GOP district up to PVI R+5.9. Without further ado:

1) DE-AL – D+6.5,

The most Democratic House district occupied by a Republican has been a disappointment candidate wise. All of the declared candidates are at best 2nd tier. The conventional wisdom seems to be that this district is Castle’s as long as he wants it. ***sigh***

This is one of 8 Districts that voted for Kerry with a Repub incumbent.

2) CT-04 – D+5,

The last House Republican in New England is facing the latest in a long line of challenging contests; one that we all hope he loses against top tier candidate Jim Himes.

This is one of 8 Districts that voted for Kerry with a Repub incumbent.

3) NJ-02 – D+4.0,

Surprisingly no confirmed Democratic candidate here yet. Did you know that Democrats won every State Senate district in this CD in 2007? That included winning one open GOP district and the defeat of a GOP sitting Senator!

IMHO potential Democratic candidates are waiting to see if State Sen Jeff Van Drew declares. If he does this one becomes a barn burner if not then LoBiondo probably lives to fight another day. ***Watch this space***

4) IL-10 – D+4,

2006 candidate and netroots hero Dan Seals is back for a rematch. Assuming he survives the primary, watch this one rage. Interestingly this district takes in part of Cook County with its fearsome Democratic machine. Unfortunately the Repub incumbent Kirk has more money fundraised than any other GOP incumbent this cycle. OTOH imagine this race if Obama is the nominee.  

This is one of 8 Districts that voted for Kerry with a Repub incumbent.

5) NY-25 – D+3.4, OPEN RACE

Walsh has announced his retirement, 2006 candidate Dan Maffei is back for another go and to avenge his less than 4000 vote loss (He won 2 out of 4 counties). With Democrats picking up Repub districts in NY in 5 of the last 6 cycles chalk this one up as a gonna win for team blue.

This is one of 8 Districts that voted for Kerry with a Repub incumbent.

6) NJ-03 – D+3.3, OPEN RACE

Saxton is retiring and we got our first choice of candidate State Sen John Adler who announced before Saxton pulled the pin. This district voted 51% for Bush in 2004 and that won’t happen again and the Repubs are on the way to an ugly primary. Another blue state pick up for team blue.

7) NM-01 – D+2.4, OPEN RACE

Wilson is off to try and run for the senate and we look like having a big primary however this is one of 8 Districts that voted for Kerry with a Repub incumbent and we only missed out by 900 votes last time. There are 40000 more registered Dems than Repubs so count this one as a win for team blue.

8) PA-06 – D+2.2,

Two declared candidates who are like options 14 and 15 for the party this one has been a massive disappointment. Like DE-AL this one seems to be Gerlach’s for as long as he wants it.

This is one of 8 Districts that voted for Kerry with a Repub incumbent.

***Another sigh***

9) NY-03 – D+2.1,

Amazingly not a Dem candidate to be seen in what may be the most Repub district in NY which is akin to being the heaviest light beer. In an ideal world State Rep David Bishop or Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi would run but don’t hold your breath for it to happen in 2008. Interestingly this district is the last of the GOP bastions on Long Island the 1st, 2nd, 4th and 5th all moving into the Dem column over the last 10 years.

Don’t hold your breath over this one in 2008.

10) WA-08 – D+2,

2006 candidate Darcy Burner is back for a rematch and Reicherts fundraising has been anemic making me wonder if he will retire! BTW Burner has almost twice as much cash on hand as Reichert. Simple equation here – If Burner wins in King (Seattle) County by more than Reichert wins Pierce County then she wins the District. 2700 votes was the margin last time.

This is one of 8 Districts that voted for Kerry with a Repub incumbent.

Hot Hot race!

11) PA-15 – D+2,

Definitely a race to watch as Sam Bennett has generated some netroots buzz and is a prolific fundraiser. In 2006 Dent only managed 53% against an underfunded last minute candidate who had to run in the primary as a write in to get on the ballot.

This is one of 8 Districts that voted for Kerry with a Repub incumbent.

Dent is very vulnerable.

12) FL-10 – D+1.1,

Simple dynamic going on here if Young runs he wins if he retires team blue will pile in and win (See also PA-06 & DE-AL). Young has said he will run but methinks not as his fundraising has been truly terrible (less than 10k last quarter!)

One third tier candidate in for us but watch them pile in when and if Young retires.

13) NV-03 – D+1.0,

Another race not getting the oxygen it should. Daskas seems to be the real deal and raised over 200k last quarter.

Bush got less than 50% here in 2004 and there are slightly more registered Dems than Repubs.

14) NY-13 – D+1,

More registered Dems than Repubs in this district not surprisingly. 2 second tier candidates declared so far but the conventional wisdom is that we need a candidate from Staten Island rather than Brooklyn. Unfortunately to this point all 3 of the Dem State Reps and Senators from the island have stayed out.

Interestingly Recchia raised more than 200K last quarter so this one could yet get competitive.

15) IA-04 – D+0.4,

This race has an oddly low profile given how pro Dem it is. Admittedly the attention has been on the 1st and 2nd until now but we won them both in 2006. One 3rd tier candidate running in a year where either Dem pres candidate will win Iowa against McCain. Latham only got 57% in 2006 and is very vulnerable if we can find a decent candidate. Spencer has only 60K COH too.

16) MI-09 – R+0,

3 great candidates in a district that gave Bush only just 50% in a state where our House representation is definitely underdone (6 out of 15). Will 2008 finally be the year when a Repub district flips and will it be the 9th? Only time will tell. One of 3 districts targetted by us this year in Michigan.

17) NY-23 – R+0.2,

Another GOP incumbent safe until he retires even some unions endorsed McHugh in 2006. Only declared candidate is 3rd tier Crummy website and poor fundraising) so nothing to see here move right along. UNLESS – Given that McHugh only raised 40K last quarter and has 200k on hand we must wonder if he will retire. If he does watch for us to pile in and pick up the district because Bush got 51% in 2004 here and because nobody is better at winning open GOP congressional House districts than the New York Democratic Party!

18) MN-03 – R+0.5, OPEN RACE

Ramstad is out and we got the candidate we wanted in State Senator Terri Bonoff. This district gave Bush 51% in 2004 and in 2008 minnesota will have a competitive senate race and should go blue for the Prez. Count this one as a win for team blue.

19) NJ-07 – R+0.6, OPEN RACE

Ferguson is out and Stender is back for another go having won 2/4 counties in 2006 and losing by only 3300 votes. The GOP is heading into a monster primary with 8 declared candidates allready. Count this one in for team blue.

20) VA-11 – R+0.6, OPEN RACE

The retirement of Davis has ensured that this district will flip. Located in Nthn Virginia which is rapidly trending Dem and with fmr Gvr Warner on the Senate ticket any one of the 3 Dems could win this one. Gave Bush a mere 50% in 2004. Count this one as a win for team blue.

21) OH-12 – R+0.7,

Personally I believe that Ohio will be ground zero in November but not in OH-12. All of the attention will be on the open races in the neighbouring 15th as well as the 16th. 3 second tier candidates here for us means that this 51% 2004 Bush District won’t be flipping in 2008 a real recruiting miss this.

22) NJ-04 – R+0.9,

An unfortunate recruitment miss pits a 3rd tier candidate against an entrenched incumbent. This district gave Bush 56% of the vote in 2004 and with competitive races in the 3rd and 7th and probably the 2nd there won’t be any excitement here on election night.

23) OH-01 – R+1,

This race is one of 4 barnburners in Ohio. We got the candidate we wanted in Steve Driehaus and he has 400K+ COH all of which will make this district one to watch on election night. Bush won this one by less than a point in 2004 and if we win Ohio this year then I think we win OH-01!

24) IL-11 – R+1.1, OPEN RACE

Weller is out and we and State Sen Majority leader Halvorson is absolutely top tier. She had about 400K COH in mid January and has raised at least another 70K since then. Despite the fact that this district gave Bush 53% in 2004 it will be flipping Dem in 08, particularly if Obama is the nominee. Count this one as a win for team blue.

25) OH-15 – R+1.1, OPEN RACE

Pryce is out and Kilroy is back to avenge her 1062 vote loss in 2006. She has 638K COH! in a district which Bush won by less than 1% in 2004. Count this one as a win for team blue.

26) MI-11 – R+1.2,

Another Michigan swing district and one of 3 districts targetted by us this year in Michigan. Both of our canidates are 3rd tier and this one won’t be flipping depsite only giving Bush 52% in 2004 and McCotter 54% in 2006. A frustrating miss at this point.

27) MI-08 – R+1.9,

We don’t even have a rumoured let alone confirmed candidate here. Need I say more?

28) PA-03 – R+2,

A definite recruiting miss here this time out. 4 2nd tier candidates running with only reporting more than 100K cash on hand (English has in excess of 500K). Bush got 53% here in 2004 and English was held to 53% in 2006 by Porter who stupidly is running again as an independent thsu making it unlikely that this rece will flip. It will be interesting to assess this race agian post primary.

29) PA-18 – R+2,

A sleeper race this one IMHO. We have 5 Dems running in the primary so something must be going on here and it seems that our presumed top tier candidate is a very poor fundraiser as are all 5 of our guys. Wait for this race to evolve in the next few months; it could get hot or disapear without a trace.

30) OH-14 – R+2,

Well we got the candidate we wanted in O’Neill and in a district that only gave Bush 52.5% in 2004 so why isn’t this one top tier? Because there are 4 other competitive races in Repub districts in Ohio and also because O’Neill’s fundraising is lacklustre (71K last quarter). Which is a real shame because under other circumstances this could be a marquee race. Hope O’Neill runs again in 2010.

31) MI-07 – R+2,

At this stage this looks to be the only competitive race in Michigan in 2008 (although this could change). And it will be a barnburner. Kept below 50% in 2006 and facing at least 3 great Democratic candidates Walberg may yet still face a primary challenge from his Repub predecessor Joe Schwarz. This is definitely one race to watch.

32) AZ-01 – R+2.2, OPEN RACE

BARNBURNER Renzi has been on Democratic target list for ywars and now he has retired. Watch for a monster primary on our side although i expect top tier candidate State Rep Anne Kirkpatrick to be our nominee. She has BTW about 300K COH. If McCain is the Repub nominee this one will be tough but if not watch out for a great race.

33) MI-06 – R+2.3,

We don’t even have a rumoured let alone confirmed candidate here. Need I say more?

34) MN-02 – R+2.7,

An intriguing race developing in this district. Our candidate Sarvi is top tier he got back from his 2nd or 3rd tour of duty in Iraq and declared his candidacy. Whilst his fundraising is a problem keep an eye on this one on election night Bush got 54% in 2004 but I reckon that if we win the MN Senate race we will win the 2nd also.

A dark horse race.

35) IL-06 – R+2.9,

Great embarrassment to Rahm Emanuel that we didn’t win this one in 2006 we are running another Iraq war vet. Unfortunately this one doesn’t have any money (40K as of mid Jan COH) and her primary opponent hasn’t filed with the FEC.

So two third tier candidates (go check the district blogs) means that this district is staying Repub this year. Let’s face it if we couldn’t win the open race in 2006 we won’t win in 2008 even if Obama is the nominee. Consider as well that there will be 2-4 competitive races elsewhere in Illinois.

36) OH-03 – R+3,

All 3 of the democratic candidates declared in the last 6 weeks and none is top tier. Too much action in other districts for this one to be competitive this time. Another recruiting miss.

37) FL-08 – R+3,

There will be a large number of competitive House races in Florida this year, maybe as many as 8! Whilst the 8th hasn’t received much attention yet it probably will. Amongst a group of 2nd tier candidates are a couple that could make this race competitive including one (Smith) who raised more than 100K last quarter and has 271K COH. And when you consider that Keller was held to 53% in 2006 and Bush only got 55% in 2004 and you have the makings of a great race. Watch this space.

38) NC-08 – R+3,

Kissell is back to avenge his 329 vote loss. He raised about 95K last quarter and should get some DCCC assisitance this time around.

Definitely one to watch on election night.

39) MI-04 – R+3,

Our candidate is second tier at best so this 54% Bush 2004 district will not be overly competitive in 2008. The attention in Michigan will be focused on CD’s 7 & 9 anyway.

40) CA-45 – R+3.2,

On paper this district should be competitive but no first tier candidate has emerged. The three 2nd tier candidates have not fundraised much and won’t be making this 56% Bush district competitive in 2008.

41) FL-24 – R+3,

3 candidates including fmr State Rep Suzanne Kosmas are running here. Kosmas has fundraised some 350K in 3 months and was heavily wooed by the party to run 2006 candidate Clint Curtis held Feeney to 58% in this 55% Bush district. Who knows what he could achieve in 2008 if he is the nominee. This race may get some traction and be terribly competitive or it may not. Wait and see  

42) NY-26 – R+3.5,

A sleeper race. We came close to knocking Reynolds in 2006 (52/48) and we have a much better candidate this time in Iraq veteran Jon Powers who has about 200K cash on hand. This one may fire up or fizzle.

43) OH-16 – R+4, OPEN RACE

Regula is retiring and we got our candidate of choice in Boccieri who has some 300K+ COH, twice the amount of his lead opponent. Bush got 53% here in 2004. Watch this one on election night if we don’t win this then Clinton or Obama don’t win Ohio IMHO.

44) FL-09 – R+4,

Held to 56% in 2006 Bilirakis could be in for a competitive race again this time with either Dicks or Mitchell set to campaign up a storm. Mitchell has 100K+ on hand and Dicks has 300K+ on hand. Like the 24th wait and see if this one lights up.

45) CA-26 – R+4,

Personally I think this district is a sleeper race. Netroots favourite  Warner is back to avenge his primary loss in 2006 and is sitting on 239K COH! With a dearth of competitive races in California this time (2) this race could really take off if things are going well for us on election night.

46) AL-03 – R+4,

A rare target for Dems in the south but unfortunately it looks like all of the attention will be focused on the open race in the 2nd where Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright looks like being a top tier recruit leaving the 3rd to languish in obscurity for this cycle.

47) IL-16 – R+4,

Our candidate Robert Abboud is a nuclear engineer which is pretty cool. Despite that he won’t be winning this 55% Bush district with only 40k odd COH, particularly with other competitive house races in Illinois.

48) FL-13 – R+4,

This race has never really ended and will be a barnburner this year. Jennings is running again and will self fund so we will see if the voting machines malfunction again.

49) FL-15 – R+4, OPEN RACE

Welson’s retirement means that a top tier Dem will get into the race. Is that Dem Higgs? Who knows. Watch this space to see how this race develops.

50) FL-18 – R+4,

The first of the three districts held by Cuban-Americans who are being challenged by yep Cuban-Americans. Whilst this one is the least likely of the three to be competitive it has the makings of a monster free for all. Watch this space in this 54% Bush district.

51) NJ-05 – R+4,

2 Second tier candidates here although Shulman has the potential to make this a competitive race having raised 140K last quarter and with an interesting life story to say the least (he is a blind rabbi). Unfortunately Bush got 57% here in 2004 and with 2 or 3 other competitive races in New Jersey I suspect that this one will struggle to get oxygen.

52) MI-10 – R+4,

We don’t even have a rumoured let alone confirmed candidate here. Need I say more?

53) FL-07 – R+4.1,

There may be lots of competitive House races in Florida this cycle but the 7th won’t be one of them. Two second tier candidates running that won’t flip this district.

54) FL-25 – R+4.4,

The second of the Cuban American districts this one will be a hoot as two political heavy weights duke it out. This one should be one to watch.

55) IL-14 – R+4.8,

Hard to handicap this 55% Bush district. We have good solid candidates with variable fundraising performances. Probably best to await the outcome of the special election in March and then examine this race then.

56) MO-06 – R+4.8,

With our top tier candidate Kay Barnes and an open Gubernatorial race this one will be a barn burner. Keep an eye on this one on election night.

57) CA-24 – R+4.8,

Will Gallegly try to retire again like he did in 2006? If so this might become competitive as there are a couple of decent 2nd tier candidates on our side. May be competitive but probably won’t be.

58) VA-04 – R+5,

We don’t even have a rumoured let alone confirmed candidate here, and we didn’t run a candidate here in 2006 at all.

Need I say more?

59) CA-50 – R+5,

Despite the enthusiasm of Leibham (187K COH) in particular I can’t help but htink that our best chance to nab this district was in the special election in 2006.

60) FL-12 – R+5,

Like the 7th this one won’t be providing any shocks on election night unfortunately. Reasonable 2nd tier candidate but nothing to see here.

61) IL-13 – R+5,

Our 3rd tier candidate has raised about 40K so far this cycle so don’t expect this race to hot up. An understandable recruiting miss given all of the open and/or competitive races in Illinois this time.

62) MN-06 – R+5,

About 4 months ago the Minnesota Democratic party were bullish that they could win all 3 Repub districts in Minnesota. I hope they are right but think they are worng. Both our candidates have about 100K in the bank but if this one couldn’t be won as an open race in 2006 it won’t be won in 2008. Watch the 3rd and 2nd not the 6th.

63) WV-02 – R+5,

Unger is out but Barth is in so wait and see how this one shakes out could be a fizzer or a firestorm. 57% Bush district.

64) WI-01 – R+2,

A couple of potentially decent 2nd tier candidates here who need to lift their fundraising game. This district only went 53% for Bush in 2004. But this race has yet to gain any traction. Will it do so? Who knows? This the most likely GOP district in Wisconsin to flip to us however, so wait and see.

65) WI-06 – R+5,

56% Bush district, Petri unopposed in 2006 and a 3rd tier candidate. Sound like a recipe for success? No I didn’t think so either.

66) FL-05 – R+5.1,

Third tier candidate means that this congressional district won’t be providing any joy in 2008.

67) NY-29 – R+5.2,

Massa almost nailed Kuhl in 2006 (52/48) and is back for another shot. In arguably the most Republican district in NY this one will be a tight race with Massa the strongest possible candidate we could have running.

68) VA-10 – R+5.3,

Whilst Bush got 55% here in 2004 and Wolf got 57% in 2006 don’t yet write this one off. With the coattails from the senate race this one may be winnable particularly given that 2006 challenger Judy Feder is back and has almost 500k COH! If we do well in the house on election night this one could well flip whilst everyone os focused on the 11th.

69) IL-18 – R+5.5, OPEN RACE

Don’t yet have a candidate as our guy Versace quit the race after filing closed. The Dem county chairs will appoint a candidate after the primary but don’t expect them to win even if Obama is our nominee.

70) NM-02 – R+5.7, OPEN RACE

A slew of democratic candidates running here and the open senate race has NM Dems talking up our chances here with some justification. If McCain is the repub nominee then forget it but otherwise our 40,000 registration advantage might us over the line in this 57% 2004 Bush district.

71) VA-02 – R+5.9,

Businessman and political rookee Glenn Nye is our candidate and he is keen but 2nd tier. This one won’t be flipping on election night and has been a real recruiting miss as our first choice declined the opportunity. 57% Bush district in 2004.

NM-Sen: Udall Outraises Pearce and Wilson COMBINED

Tom Udall is a part of the True Blue New Mexico donation campaign.

This post is crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP.

I wrote earlier about Tom Udall’s impressive fundraising total: more than a million dollars in a single quarter for a candidate in a Senatorial race.  A race for SenatorTom Udall in New Mexico.  This isn’t exactly New York or California where we are accustomed to seeing politicians raise huge amounts of money for these races.  Even important federal races; while Heather Wilson raised nearly $5 million in 2006, she didn’t do so in the fourth quarter of 2005.

But then comes some news that Udall not only raised an insane amount of money; it was actually more than both GOP candidates combined in the third quarter.

U.S. Rep. Tom Udall raised more than $1 million for his Senate bid during the fourth quarter of 2007, beating the combined total raised by the two leading Republicans in the race, U.S. Reps. Steve Pearce and Heather Wilson.

Udall raised more than a million dollars, as I mentioned before.  So what did Republicans Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce raise in that same time period (actually, more on the time period later)?

Read more under the fold.

Wilson came in second in fundraising for the quarter, raising just under $517,000. She spent just under $194,000 and begins 2008 with almost $1.1 million in the bank.


Pearce reported raising just under $426,000 for the quarter, spending just under $206,000 and having almost $820,000 on hand.

Heather WilsonSteve PearceRemember, the two Republican candidates will be forced to spend money on a primary battle, while Udall will be free to conserve and continue to accrue money during the same time period. Did someone say time period?

Udall entered the race in November.  Wilson entered within 48 hours of Domenici’s retirement in early October.  Pearce entered mid-October.  So Udall had less time to raise money, and still outraised the combined efforts of both his rivals.


More Q4-2007 Numbers from the Senate Races

[First, a cheap plug for my blog

Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.

Starting off with the big one, DSCC vs. NRSC:

DSCC 2007 FEC Filing

Total Raised 4rd Q: $13.3 million

Total Raised in December: $6.1 million

Total Raised in 2007: $55.4 million

Cash on Hand: $29.4 million

Debt: $1.5 million

NRSC 2007 FEC Filing

Total Raised 4rd Q: $8.4 million

Total Raised in December: $3.1 million

Total Raised in 2007: $31.8 million

Cash on Hand: $12.1 million

As of the end of 2007, the DSCC’s cash-on-hand-minus-debt compared to the NRSC’s is $27.9 million to $12.1 million.  Massive!


Tom Udall (D): $1 million Q4, $1.7 million on hand

Steve Pearce (R): $425,000 Q4, $820,000 on hand

Heather Wilson (R): $515 Q4, $1.1 million on hand

Udall raised more in Q4 than Pearce and Wilson combined!


Larry LaRocco (D): $166,000 Q4, $200,000 on hand

Jim Risch (R): $236,000 Q4, $171,000 on hand

Even in Idaho, the Democrat has more on hand than the Republican!


Mark Udall (D): $1.1 million Q4, $3.6 million on hand

Bob Schaffer (R): $673,000 Q4, $1.5 million on hand

The Republican raised only 60% of the Democrat in Q4 and has less than half the cash on hand of the Democrat.


Mark Pryor (D): $616,000 Q4, $3.6 million on hand

The GOP can’t find an opponent for Pryor.


Greg Orman (D): $450,000 in December alone (recently entered race)


Jeanne Shaheen (D): $1.2 million Q4, $1.15 million on hand

John Sununu (R): $922,000 Q4, $3.42 million on hand

Another race where the Democratic challenger outraised the Republican incumbent.


Mark Warner (D): $2.7 million Q4, $2.9 million on hand

I’m guessing that Republican Jim Gilmore will report significantly less.


Carl Levin (D): $840,000 Q4, almost $5 million on hand

Levin should face only token GOP opposition.


Tom Harkin (D): $802,000 Q4, $3.4 million on hand


Tom Allen (D): $813,000 Q4, $2.5 million on hand

Susan Collins (R): $965,000 Q4, $3.9 million on hand

Want to help Democrats expand the map of competitive races?  Send a few bucks their way!

MN-Sen: Franken is AHEAD!

Hold onto your furry winter hats, folks; a poll conducted by the University of Minnesota shows comedian-turned-Democratic-activist Al Franken edging out the incumbent Republican Senator Norm Coleman, 43% to 40%.  Granted, that is still within the margin of error . . . but it is the first time Franken has led.  It goes to show that the comedian is no joke, and that we just might be able to take back the seat that belonged to the late, great Paul Wellstone.  

The PDF of the poll is available at Minnesota Public Radio’s homepage:

NC-Gov: Democrats lead (Rasmussen)

Rasmussen is showing some good news for Democrats in North Carolina – both Richard Moore and Beverly Purdue are leading Republican Pat McCrory by 4-5%.

North Carolina Gubernatorial Election
Richard Moore (D) 39%
Pat McCrory (R) 34%
North Carolina Gubernatorial Election
Beverly Perdue (D) 42%
Pat McCrory (R) 38%

This shows improvement over December’s poll:

In December, McCrory on top in both match-ups by an identical 42% to 39% margin. That survey was conducted prior to McCrory’s official announcement to run in the election.

Anyone here know how reapportionment works in North Carolina? If we maintain our hold on the Governor’s mansion and the state legislature, can we squeeze an advantage here after the 2010 Census?

AL-02: Bobby Bright To Run As A Democrat?

My first diary here at Swing State Project.  I hadn’t seen this mentioned, but Doc’s Political Parlor (which covers Alabama politics) is reporting that Montgomery, AL, Mayor Bobby Bright has apparently decided to run as a Democrat for the open seat in Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District (currently held by Terry Everett).…

Apparently he was going back and forth over whether to run as a Democrat or Republican, the thinking being he’d have an easier time in the general election as a Republican, but an easier time in a primary as a Democrat.  The speculation seems that he’s the Democrat’s best hope for winning the seat, and actually has a decent shot at winning.  It may come down to the region of the district that the GOP nominee comes from (ie. a Montgomery Republican could fare worse against Bright).

Can anyone better-versed in Alabama politics give more insight?

AK-AL: Don Young and the Incredible Shrinking Cash-on-Hand

Remember back in April, when crumb-bum Don Young had a massive cash-on-hand of nearly $2 million?  Surely such a hefty sum would be more than enough to bury his eventual Democratic opponent in November 2008, right?

Here’s the only catch: Young’s been hemorrhaging so much cash, that he’ll be lucky to have any of it left in his bank account this fall.  Check out his latest FEC filing:

Raised: $43,850.00

Spent: $590,603.33

CoH: $948,228.05

Hoo-ah!  That’s a whole lot of expenditures!  That figure includes $74,811.96 paid to the DC law firm Tobin, O’Connor, Ewing & Richard, and a whopping $330,619.46 paid to Akin Gump, another DC firm, for various legal services.

May the lawyers continue to bleed Young’s campaign white as the King of the Crumb-Bums continues to scramble to save his own hide.