Month: February 2008

The Politico reports that Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich is expected to announce today that he is to run this fall against Ted Stevens for his Alaska Senate seat.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/…

The popular Begich should be able to make this a top-tier race as he already holds a lead against the corrupt Stevens in polling, 47-41.

A competitive race in Alaska? Who would have thought that? But it sure does look that way. It probably ranks just below the top 5 (VA, NM, NH, CO, MN) in order of seats most likely to change parties, maybe even ahead of Oregon and Maine.

With an outside chance in MS and perhaps even TX the impossible dream of 60 seats may actually be in reach.

In the opinion of Quinn McCord at the National Journal, a primary between candidates Scott Kleeb and Tony Raimondo will actually bring about more positive than negative results for the eventual nominee. McCord argues that, because both candidates are relatively unknown statewide, a primary will increase exposure for the eventual nominee. So, I'm curious: does the readership here at SSP concur with McCord, or do you think a primary will ultimately bruise the eventual nominee, rendering him weaker against Mike Johanns?

CLEARFIELD, PA – Centre County attorney Jennifer P. Bierly has been named chairman of the McCracken for Congress Committee by Democratic candidate Mark B. McCracken of Clearfield County.  Mr. McCracken is running for the PA 5th District currently held by retiring Representative John Peterson.

“I am pleased that Jennifer has agreed to chair my campaign for Congress in the 5th Congressional District. She brings tremendous political experience, insight and enthusiasm to our campaign.” McCracken said.

Bierly, a Centre County native, is a 1990 graduate of Penns Valley High School and a 1994 summa cum laude graduate of Virginia Tech, where she earned a B.A. in Urban Affairs. She graduated in 1997 from The University of Pittsburgh School of Law and focuses her practice in the area of family law. She and her husband, Stephen Fast live in Port Matilda.

Also appointed to the McCracken for Congress committee are Henry Guthrie of DuBois as vice chair, Milt Weisman of Clearfield as treasurer and Michelle Kramer of Morrisdale as secretary. Guthrie has been active in Democratic politics at the local, county and regional levels for several years. Weisman, vice president of intercity operations for the Fullington Bus Company, brings a solid management background to the campaign.

“It is important to have individuals with solid experience in key positions within a campaign. Having Jennifer, Henry, Milt and Michelle in these important positions will allow our campaign for the 5th Congressional District to move forward with a strong organization in place,” McCracken stated.

The campaign website, http://www.mccrackenforcongres… has been launched. Voters are urged to visit it often for policy statements, a schedule of events, and other information of interest.

Now that the primaries are slowly quieting down and that delegate calculation are no longer a full time job, we can get back to the joy of ranking congressional races. My last House rankings came in mid-November, and the 4 months that have passed since then have been a political eternity. There have been a number of high-profile retirements, including the first Democrat to retire from a competitive seat in OR-05; but open seats are clearly a Republican headache in this cycle, with many GOP congressmen calling it quits since November, some of them in districts that Democrats are already salivating over (such as NY-25 and VA-11). And while many retirements are in districts that look safe for the GOP (LA-06 and KY-02, for example), their cumulated impact forces the NRCC to play defense and stretches Republican resources even further.

Both parties have also scored recruitment coups in the past few months, and gotten some disappointing news. Here again, the GOP has much more to worry about; it even finds itself without a candidate in IL-11, an open seat that has sky-rocketed at the top of the Democratic priority list. But Republicans also have some bright spots: They for instance convinced former Rep. Anne Northup to run for her old seat in KY-03 and are keeping  NM-01 much more competitive than many observers expected. And Republicans got encouraging news in December when they successfully defended two districts in special elections, particularly in OH-05 where the DCCC believed it could snatch a seat away.

Overall, all this movement is pushing many more races towards the top of these ratings and we should expect a few more surprises before the retirement and recruitment season comes to a  close. We should already get a better sense of the mood of the country and what to expect in November with two special elections in the coming weeks in IN-07 and IL-14.

I have only written full descriptions of seats that have made news over the past month. For detailed descriptions of the other races, check last month’s rankings. Only a few seats saw their rating change in the past month. I indicated upgraded or downgraded next to them to indicate whether they became more vulnerable or less vulnerable for the incumbent party. Here is the quick run-down:

• Less vulnerable: CA-04, NY-19, PA-06, OH-18
  
• More vulnerable: FL-21, IL-11, IL-14, KY-02, KY-03, LA-06, MD-01, MO-09, NJ-03, NY-25, OR-05, PA-11, VA-11
  
• Off the list: OH-05
  

Outlook: Democrats pick-up  9-14 seats.

• IL-11 (Open, Upgraded): The GOP’s recruitment woes had already pushed this seat to “Lean Takeover” in the fall. Democrats got a top-tier candidate — state Senate President Debbie Halvorson — while Republicans failed to do the same. Things have gotten even worse since then for the GOP, as their nominee — New Lenox Mayor Tim Baldermann — dropped out two weeks after the primary. This actually could prove a blessing to Republicans if they manage to get a stronger candidate (who would not have to face a primary), but it has been months they have failed to do just that and right now Halvorson is running unopposed — and raising a lot of money. Until the GOP replaces Baldermann, this race has to be considered the top pick-up opportunity for Dems.

Republican seats, Lean take-over (5)

• AZ-1 (Open): Rep. Renzi had already announced his retirement in this swing district, and Democrats have a strong field of candidates. But Renzi has now been indicted on 36 charges of corruption, and some in the House leadership are pushing him to resign. That would create a competitive open seat in which Democrats would have an even better chance of winning given the turnout differential in this year’s races.
  
• NJ-03 (Open, Upgraded): The less dramatic version of IL-11, NJ-03 could fall in the Democratic column easily because of a recruitment differential. After Rep. Saxton retired in this competitive district, Democrats coalesced around state Senator John Adler (who was already running) while the top potential GOP contender declined to run. Bush very narrowly carried the district in 2004, but Adler is favored to pick up the seat this year.
  
• NY-25 (Open, Upgraded): This seat has emerged as one of the RNCC’s biggest headaches. One of the 8 remaining Republican-held districts that Kerry carried in 2004, NY-25 was barely kept in the GOP column by Rep. Walsh in 2006 — by 2,005 votes. Now, Walsh has retired and the Democrats appear to be coalescing around their nominee from last cycle, Dan Maffei. This will be a tough seat for the GOP to hold, particularly in a presidential year.
  
• OH-15 (Open)
• VA-11 (Open, Upgraded): Rep. Tom Davis finally announced his plans to leave his Northern Virginia seat next year, opening up a seat in a rapidly Democratic-trending region. Dems are running two strong candidates, state Sen. (and former Rep.) Leslie Bryne and Gerry Connolly, the chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors. The Republican candidate will likely be Keith Fimian, a businessman with self-funding abilities. An idea of how uphill a climb this race could be for the GOP is provided by the 2005 statewide election results: Leslie Byrne narrowly lost the Lieutenant Governor race that year, but she trounced her Republican opponent within VA-11.
  

Democratic seats, Lean take-over (1)

• FL-16 (Rep. Mahoney)

Republican seats, Toss-up (12)

• AK-AL (Rep. Young):  The day of reckoning might be getting near for Alaska Republicans, embroiled in a giant corruption investigation that is also threatening Senator Stevens.  Rep. Young  is facing a very strong challenger, Ethan Berkowitz, but even believers in the Democrat’s chances here were surprised when an independent poll showed Young trailing by 7%. And that was barely better than the 15% deficit Young was facing in a late November internal Democratic poll.
  
• CO-4 (Rep. Musgrave)
  
• CT-4 (Rep. Shays)
  
• IL-10 (Rep. Kirk): Most of the attention in this race was devoted to the Democratic primary, which was held on February 5th, but it ended in a blow-out. Dan Seals won with 81%, setting up a rematch of the 2006 race against Rep. Kirk. Seals can expect to receive more attention from the DCCC this time around.
  
• KY-02 (Open, upgraded): Complete chaos erupted in this race on January 30th, when Rep. Lewis retired quite literally at the last minute, in a ploy to allow his chief of staff to get the GOP nomination. But state Senator Guthrie heard of this time to jump in the race, setting up a wholly unexpected Republican primary. The winner will face state Senator David Boswell, whom Democrats have long been touting.  This seat is very Republican (Bush won with 65%) but depending on the outcome of the GOP primary things could shape up to the Democrats’ advantage.
  
• MN-03 (Open): There were rumors back in the fall that Rep. Ramstad might un-retire, which would be a huge boost for Republicans in a swing district. But most indications since then have been that the retirement is definite. Will Rep. Shadegg’s recent un-retirement cause Ramstad to reconsider?  In any cae, Republicans have a candidate they believe will be strong in November,  state Sen. Erik Paulsen.
• NC-8 (Rep. Hayes)
• NJ-07 (Open): Democrats had their candidate as soon as Rep. Ferguson announced his retirement a few months ago, as Linda Stender (who lost narrowly in 06) was back for a rematch. Republican recruitment here is not as worrisome as in other open seats, with Kate Whitman, the daughter of former Governor Christie Whitman, headlining the competitive primary.
• NM-1 (Open, Downgraded): NM-01, a blue-leaning district that Kerry carried in 04, is an unlikely place to one of the rare open seat bright spots for the GOP. But Republicans believe in the candidacy of Sheriff Darren White (an internal poll showed him leading in the general) while Democrats have to deal with a major primary between high-profile figures. The dynamics here could change after the primary but the early script is what the GOP was hoping for.    
• OH-1 (Rep. Chabot)
  
• OH-16 (Open)
• WA-8 (Rep. Reichert)
  

Democratic seats, Toss-up (11)

• CA-11 (Rep. McNerney)
• GA-8 (Rep. Marshall)
• IL-8 (Rep. Bean): The Feb. 5th primaries delivered Bean’s Republican challenger, businessman Steve Greenberg. Bean will probably have very few calm cycles in her House careers, as she sits on Republican territory. But Barack Obama’s probable heading of the Democratic ticket coupled with the fact that she is very aware of the danger and prepares herself accordingly will make her a tough target.
  
• IN-7 (Open): Rep. Carson’s death earlier this year created a special election in this Democratic leaning district. Democrats selected Andre Carson, the former Rep.’s grandson, while the GOP fielded a much touted candidate, state Rep. Jon Elrod. The most recent public poll was taken a few weeks ago and shows a toss-up, though the consensus seems to be that the district is too unfavorable to Republicans for Elrod to have a chance. Ultimately, what is really hurting Elrod is the NRCC’s lack of funds, as they are not able to truly test the relatively weak Carson.
  
• IN-09 (Rep. Hill): The filing deadline passed in Indiana, confirming that the 2008 race will be the fourth straight confrontation between Democrat Baron Hill and Republican Sodrel. The former won in 2002 and 2006, and the latter in 2004.
  
• KS-2 (Rep. Boyda)
• NH-1 (Rep. Shea-Porter)
• OR-05 (Open, Upgraded): Rep. Hooley’s surprise retirement is the first open seat headache Democrats are facing this year, and it could be a very difficult one for the DCCC to hold. Bush won this district by 1% in 2004, testifying to its being one of the tightest in the country. Republicans are already excited about their candidate, Mike Erickson, who is a wealthy self-funder who already ran in 2006 and got a very respectable 43%.
  
• PA-4 (Rep. Altmire)
  
• PA-10 (Rep. Carney)
  
• TX-22 (Rep. Lampson)

For the rest of the ratings (and there are MANY more very interesting seats to go, including all the lean retentions and potentially competitives), go here on Campaign Diaries.

OR-5 is one of the few Democratic House vacancies this cycle that will be closely contested by Republicans, as the Democratic incumbent who is retiring, Darlene Hooley, has typically won about 55-45 or tighter since she first won the seat in 1996.

With Darlene’s abrupt announcement of her retirement this month and the primary on May 20, the clock has been ticking on who will be the Democratic candidate to declare for the race, until now: State Sen. Kurt Schrader.

Sen. Schrader is a veterinarian and farmer who lives in an exurb of Portland, Canby, and who has been active in county in state politics for decades, having served on numerous county commissions and farm boards prior to becoming a state legislator in 1996. Notably, his wife is also prominent in politics as a county commissioner and it was uncertain until today which one would run for this seat.

More on Kurt Schrader:

http://www.leg.state.or.us/sch… and

http://dkosopedia.com/wiki/Kur…

Today, he announced that he would be running for OR-5, a mixed rural/suburban/urban district that runs from a sliver of downtown Portland to include much rural farmland and a part of the coast, along with the state capital Salem:

http://www.blueoregon.com/2008…

Personally, I believe he is a pretty good fit for this district, given his strong constituency in the Portland exurbs/suburbs while having obvious professional connections to the rural interests.  

I don’t know Schrader well, but he appears to be a fairly good Democrat, not exceptionally progressive but certainly someone we could be happy with in this swing district and would probably represent a wash with Hooley. Also, at 57 years of age, he should be good for ten years at least in this seat if (once) he wins, especially with the Portland suburbs trending increasingly Democratic of late. And lastly, Schrader is mid-term in his Oregon State Senate seat, so if he were to lose, he would maintain his seat, which would likely be hotly contested too, although the Democrats have a sizable (18-12) advantage in the State Senate.

His opponents include:

Mike Erickson (declared), a milquetoast business-owner and multimillionaire who was defeated handily by Hooley last time 54-43 during his first foray into politics.

Kevin Mannix (all-but-declared), the odious former Oregon GOP chair who has lost multiple statewide races for Governor (in the general and primary) and Attorney General (2x) after having defected from the Democratic Party as a state legislator in 1997. He has significant name recognition in the district as he represented part of it until 2000 as a state legislator, and from his statewide races, but most notably of late he has been the author of multiple contentious conservative ballot measures that have become a gravy train for him.

A bloody primary is expected between Erickson and Mannix, as the former can spend tons of his own dough and ran last time, whereas Mannix has more Republican establishment support.

Schrader is the first and probably only Democrat to declare in this race as several other likely candidates have declined to run and he should be able to begin accumulating a sizable warchest before facing off against the Republican nominee after the May 20 primary. As such, this could be a very good chance at a hold for the Democrats while being a close enough district to get the NRCC to spend some scarce resources, though it is by no means a gimme—- it will take a lot of work to hold this race against either candidate, but in a Presidential year, this should be a toss-up to lean-Dem seat.

N.B. As of yet, I can not find a campaign website for Schrader.

Crossposted at dKos: http://www.dailykos.com/story/…

On Friday, Harold Ford said the following:

“There is not a better Congressman in Washington than Chris Shays,” said Ford, to a crowd of about 600 Fairfield University students and community members.

On Sunday, he said:

My comments were clearly taken out of context.

Clearly. Wanker.

On the web: One of my favorite candidates this cycle, Jim Himes. Put that in whatever context you like!

I’m lovin’ this. On Friday, outgoing GOP congressmember Rick Renzi gets indicted on 35 counts of corrupt bastardy. Later that same day, embattled Republican Minority Leader John Boehner calls on Renzi to resign immediately. Obviously, Boehner doesn’t want a replay of the DeLay and Ney dramas, where tales of Republican wrongdoing played out in the media over many many months.

But today, Rick Renzi said nuts to that:

“I will not resign and take on the cloak of guilt because I am innocent,” Renzi said per a statement released by his congressional office. “My legal team of Reid Weingarten and Kelly Kramer will handle these legal issues while I continue to serve my constituents.”

I especially love the shout-out to his attorneys. It’ll make them that much easier to find on his campaign finance reports. Thanks for everything, Rick!

P.S. Now I can’t get that damn Billy Joel song out of my head!

In a shocking development, Nancy Skinner, the 2006 candidate who ran against Republican Rep. Joe Knollenberg, has withdrawn her candidacy for that seat.  She would have faced state lottery commissioner Gary Peters in the Democratic primary before moving on to face Knollenberg in the fall.  

I’m not quite sure which way this news cuts.  On the one hand, Skinner ran a strong race against Knollenberg the last time around, and has been championed by the netroots, especially Democracy For America.  On the flip side, I remain wary of “grudge match” candidates who were unable to beat the Republicans in 2006.  That was a Democratic year, without any GOP pull at the top of the ticket.  If a candidate couldn’t make it over the finish line then, how would he or she do so this year?

I also don’t know much about Gary Peters.  How strong a candidate is he?  Any Michiganders with insights, I encourage you to chime in!

I yield the floor.

We are so close to reaching our daily goal of $1,500 for Scott! We already have $1,200 – and I know that we can we reach our goal!

We have had people donate $5, $20, $500, etc… Every little bit truely counts, small donors will make the difference in this campaign. Donate whatever you can spare.

This is your campaign, so help US win this race by buying a piece of the campaign today.

I want to share with you something that Scott wrote on his website that really touched me:

We can either demand more of ourselves and our leaders, or we can settle for more of the same. We can demand new ideas that uphold our finest and oldest traditions, or we can settle for the same failed old policies. We can stand up, together, and have a say about our future or we can put our future in the same old hands that got us where we are today. Others expect apathy. They expect us not to care. They expect us to settle for the same old thing.

They are in for a big surprise this year.

Yes they are. But only if get involved and demand more from our candidates.

Help us elect a real leader in this election – donate today!

Also, check out Scott’s live interview on the local news.