Kentucky has 6 representatives: 4 Republicans and 2 Democrats
Filing deadline has passed, primary is May 20
Louisiana has 7 representatives: 5 Republicans and 2 Democrats
Filing deadline is July 11, primary is Sept 6
Maine has 2 representatives, both Democrats
Filing deadline is March 15, primary is June 10
District: KY-01
Location Southwestern KY, bordering IN, IL, MO and TN.
Representative Ed Whitfield (R)
First elected 1994
2006 margin 60-40
2004 margin 67-33
Bush margin 2004 63-36
Notes on opponents In 2006, Tom Barlow raised $100K to Whitfield’s $1 million, in 2004, Billy Cartwright raised little
Current opponents Heather Ryan (no site)
Demographics 11th most rural (63.5%), 29th lowest income (median = $30K), 58th fewest Latinos (1.5%)
Assessment Long shot
District: KY-02
Location Central KY, bordering IN.
Representative Ron Lewis (R) retiring
First elected 1994
2006 margin 55-45
2004 margin 68-32
Bush margin 2004 65-34
Notes on opponents In 2006, Mike Weaver raised $900K to Lewis’ $2 million. In 2004, Adam Smith raised little
Current opponents David Boswell and Reed Haire (no sites) will run, against Daniel London, Lewis’ chief of staff or Brett Guthrie
Demographics 37th most rural (52.8%), 61st most Republican on Cook PVI, 70th most Whites (90.6%)
Assessment Superribbie gives KY-02 a vulnerability score of 87 – not very vulnerable, and I have to agree.
District: KY-03
Location Louisville and suburbs, bordering IN
Representative John Yarmuth (D)
First elected 2006
2006 margin 51-48
2004 margin NA
Bush margin 2004 49-51
Notes on opponents In 2006, Yarmuth ousted Anne Northup, while spending considerably less ($2.2 million to $3.4 million)
Current opponents Erwin Roberts and Daniel Seum, as well as Anne Northup
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Superribbie (link above) gives this a score of 103 – the 16th most vulnerable Democratic district. Assuming Northup wins, I think Yarmuth is favored – being the incumbent helps.
District: KY-04
Location Northern KY, bordering IN, OH, and a tiny bit of WV
Representative Geoff Davis (R)
First elected 2004
2006 margin 52-43
2004 margin 54-44
Bush margin 2004 63-36
Notes on opponents In 2006, Ken Lucas raised $1.5 million to Davis’ $4.2 million. In 2004, Nick Clooney raised $1.5 million to Davis’ $3 million
Current opponents Michael Kelley
Demographics 26th fewest Latinos (1.1%), 14th most Whites (95.1%)
Assessment Long shot
District: KY-05
Location Southeastern KY, bordering VA, WV, and TN
Representative Harold Rogers (R)
First elected 1980
2006 margin 74-26
2004 margin unopposed
Bush margin 2004 61-39
Notes on opponents No money
Current opponents None declared
Demographics An unusual district. The most rural (78.7%), 2nd lowest income (median income = $22K) (only NY16 is lower), most White (97.1%), 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%), and 7th fewest Latinos (0.7%).
Assessment Long shot
District: KY-06
Location Central KY, including Frankfort
Representative Ben Chandler (D)
First elected 2004 (special election)
2006 margin 85-15 (vs. a Libertarian)
2004 margin 59-40
Bush margin 2004 58-41
Notes on opponents In the regular 2004 election, Tom Buford raised $137K to Chandler’s $1.6 million.
Current opponents None declared
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Although Superribbie’s vulnerability score here is pretty high (90, the 39th most vulnerable), I think he’s pretty safe. Of course, if no one runs, he’s totally safe
District: LA-01
Location Northeastern part of the southern part of LA, bordering MS and Lake Pontchartrain, including Metarie
Representative None (Jindal is governor now)
First elected NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Bush margin 2004 71-28
Notes on opponents NA
Current opponents Gilda Reed and a bunch of Republicans
Demographics 19th most Republican per Cook PVI
Assessment LA has open elections, with everyone running at once (no primary first – or only a primary, whichever way you want to look at it). This is a hugely Republican district, but there’s one Democrat running, and there might be a lot of Republicans…. who knows?
[[UPDATE]]
a commenter on dailyKos informs me that LA no longer has jungle primaries, so, this is a long shot
District: LA-02
Location New Orleans
Representative William Jefferson (D)
First elected 1990
2006 margin 57-43 in runoff
2004 margin 79-21
Bush margin 2004 24-75
Notes on opponents In 2006 Karen Carter raised $1.2 million, about the same as Jefferson.
Current opponents You mean, besides himself? The WIKI lists a lot of potential candidates.
Demographics 10th lowest income (median = $27.5K), 40th fewest Whites (28.3%), 2nd most Blacks (63.7%) (only IL01 is higher)
Assessment Safe for a Democrat, unless somehow Jefferson winds up on the ballot while in jail, or something.
District: LA-03
Location Southeastern LA, on the Gulf of Mexico
Representative Charlie Melancon (D)
First elected 2004
2006 margin 55-40
2004 margin (in runoff, Melancon won by 569 votes of 115,000)
Bush margin 2004 58-41
Notes on opponents In 2006, Greg Romero raised $1.9 million to Melancon’s $2.6 million. In 2004, Melancon ousted Tauzin, with each spending about $2 million
Current opponents None declared
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Probably pretty safe
District: LA-04
Location Western LA, bordering TX and AK, including Shreveport
Representative Jim McCrery (R) retiring
First elected 1988
2006 margin 57% (no runoff)
2004 margin unopposed
Bush margin 2004 59-40
Notes on opponents none with money
Current opponents per the WIKI, the only declared Democrat is John Milkovich – his site does not inspire confidence, nor a great desiree to support him (DINO!). Others might run.
Demographics 36th lowest income (median $31K), 36th most Blacks (33.3%)
Assessment This is a pickup possibility – superrribbie gives it a vulnerability of 99. Will some good Democrat run?
District: LA-05
Location Northeastern LA, bordering MS and AR
Representative Rodney Alexander (R)
First elected 2002
2006 margin 68-29
2004 margin 59% (no runoff)
Bush margin 2004 62-37
Notes on opponents In 2006, Gloria Hearns raised $150K to Alexander’s $1.2 million
Current opponents none declared
Demographics 9th lowest income (median = $27K), 24th most Blacks (33.7%)
Assessment Long shot
District: LA-06
Location The northwestern part of the southern part of LA
Representative None (Richard Baker (R) quit)
First elected NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Bush margin 2004 59-40
Notes on opponents no money
Current opponents Don Cazoyoux
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Who knows? Special election on March 8
District: LA-07
Location Southwestern LA, bordering TX and the Gulf
Representative Charles Boustany (R)
First elected 2004
2006 margin 71-29
2004 margin 55-45 in runoff
Bush margin 2004 60-39
Notes on opponents In 2004, Willie Mount raised $1.3 million to Boustany’s $2.8 million.
Current opponents No declared Democrat
Demographics 44th lowest income (median = $31K)
Assessment long shot
District: ME-01
Location The southern part of ME, including Portland
Representative Tom Allen (D) retiring (for Senate run!)
First elected 1996
2006 margin 61-31
2004 margin 60-40
Bush margin 2004 43-55
Notes on opponents In 2004, Charles Summers raised $500L to Allen’s $700 K; in 2006, Darlene Curley raised about $180K to Allen’s $650K
Current opponents Declared Democrats include:
Chellie Pingree
Michael Brennan
Mark Lawrence
Ethan Strimling
and
Adam Cote
Demographics 42nd most rural (50.6%), 4th most White (96.3%), 11th least Black (0.6%), 11th least Latino (0.8%) (only 6 districts have less than 1% Black and less than 1% Latino; two of them are in ME, and all of them have Democratic reps)
Assessment Probably safe
District: ME-02
Location Northern ME, bordering Canada, a bit of NH, and the Atlantic
Representative Michael Michaud (D)
First elected 2002
2006 margin 71-29
2004 margin 58-39
Bush margin 2004 46-52
Notes on opponents In 2004, Brian Hamel raised $700K to Michaud’s $1.3 million
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 3rd most rural (69%), 2nd most White (96.7%), 7th fewest Blacks (0.4%), 7th fewest Latinos (0.7%)
Assessment Safe
