Month: May 2008

Baselice & Associates (PDF) (5/20-25, registered voters, April in parens):

Rick Noriega (D): 33 (34)

John Cornyn (R-inc): 49 (49)

Unsure: 16

(MoE: ±3.1%)

Baselice may be a Republican firm, but these numbers somehow “feel” a bit more on-target than the previous pair of polls by Rasmussen and Research 2000 that showed Noriega only behind by 3 or 4 points. But I say that without popping the hood and digging around with the poll’s crosstabs.

Still, the important point here is Cornyn under 50, which this poll confirms. However, if Noriega hopes to close that gap (however large it may be), he better get ready to report a multi-million dollar fundraising quarter at the end of June.  

Well this was a curveball. From the Staten Island Advance:

The GOP has just nominated Todt Hill resident Frank Powers to run for Congress. […]

Powers is on the board of directors of Richmond University Medical Center and has served as President of the Staten Island Academy. He served on the Board of the former St. Vincent’s Medical Center for over 20 years and is a past president of the Downtown Athletic Club and past president of the Heisman Trophy Foundation. He served as Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Staten Island Institute of Arts and Sciences, and Chairman of the USS Sullivan’s’ Foundation. He is the former Chairman of the Board of St. Elizabeth Ann’s Health Care and Rehabilitation Center. He was elected to the Board of the MTA in 2005. Powers also currently serves on the Board of Wagner College.

Powers did not appear in any of the prospective or rumored candidate lists that were popping up in media reports in the last two weeks. It’s worth noting that he looks older than dirt.

Hotline on Call has more:

One big question is whether Powers will self-fund (fully or partially) his bid. If so, that’s a huge factor in whether he’ll be successful, considering the huge expense of campaigning in the NYC media market. But if he chooses not to self fund, he should have a considerable fundraising base from his past connections in the financial services community.

This guy seems like a big question mark to me.  I like our chances.

Update: Here’s a fun tidbit: the Staten Island GOP’s finance chair – who considered running for the seat himself – is backing McMahon:

But Dr. Jamshad Wyne, who interviewed with the party last night even though he’d said he was pulling out of the race last weekend, objected to the Powers pick.

He left the convention before the final vote was taken, saying he would support McMahon in the race.

“I like Frank Powers,” he said. “But I think Mike is a better candidate. We should be willing to cross party lines to support the best candidate.”

Wonderful.

Update II: Phil sums it up brilliantly: “The Bottom Of The Bottom Of The Barrel”.

I wrote a diary earlier this week. I am now re-pushing this page in light of some earlier discussions that I had. I think that it is important that we send a message to all those that voted against the GI Bill that we will take note.

I donate $20 to Noriega earlier this afternoon. Can anyone match this? I would love to give him the max, but cannot afford to do so. So therefore I am raising through blogging and friends that I have encouraged to give.

If you can spread the wealth and send these other candidates a few extra bucks it is worth it. We need to have a collective message that every Senator should be held accountable for their stance on how they treat veterans.

From Elizabeth Benjamin:

A Staten Island source confirms state Sen. Andrew Lanza is officially taking a pass on Fossella’s seat, choosing instead to seek re-election for the seat he already holds in the 24th SD.

Lanza has already informed Staten Island GOP Chairman John Friscia of his decision.

This must be music to Senate Majority Leader Joseph Bruno’s ears. Not so much for the Staten Island GOP or the Republican Party as a whole in New York.

As one disgruntled elephant told me earlier this afternoon: “If you can’t find someone to run for a seat that was once thought to be a sure-thing for Republicans, you might as well pack it in.”

Said another, thoroughly disgusted GOPer: “The Staten Island Republican Party is dead.”

The Staten Island Advance confirms the news. The Richmond County GOP will meet tonight to endorse a candidate. Lisa Giovinazzo, who ran against Democrat (and current NY-13 candidate) Mike McMahon for his city council seat in 2003 and won only 29% of the vote, is the apparent front-runner for the endorsement. Conservative Party member Paul Atanasio seems to be the candidate of choice for the Brooklyn GOP.

Jonah has some more in the diaries.

The Republican County Committee is holding candidate interviews tonight, where if you can believe former candidate GOP chairman John Friscia, Lisa Giovinazzo is the front runner for their endorsement.  Lisa Giovinazzo as he tells us, because I had no clue is an NY1 reporter.  She is also known for losing to McMahon previously when she ran against him in 2003 for his City Council seat.  As a third/fourth/fifth tier candidate I am sure everyone is familiar with  her, but if not here is her 2003 candidate bio.

This seems to be a good indication that State Senator Andrew Lanza is all but out of the race.

update:

State Senate Lanza officially withdraws.

Benenson Strategy Group for Mary Jo Kilroy (5/20-22, likely voters):

Mary Jo Kilroy (D): 47

Steve Stivers (R): 37

(MoE: ±4.3%)

Stivers, a state senator and an Iraq vet, has been one of the brighter recruiting spots for the NRCC.  Kilroy’s numbers are boosted by fairly high name recognition (78%) from her 2006 run.

Despite her 2006 race being a bruising affair, the Politico notes that her favorability rating has begun to recover into net positive territory:

She had a net favorability rating of 10 percent — 44 percent of respondents held a favorably opinion of her, while 34 percent viewed her unfavorably.

Kilroy’s favorability rating has rebounded from her political standing in October 2006, when a plurality of voters held an unfavorable opinion of her.

This is a 50-50 district that’s trending bluer every day. Kilroy can’t rest easy, but this race is looking good in terms of money (she has a significant fundraising lead) and now poll numbers.

SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.

Rasmussen (5/27, likely voters):

Ronnie Musgrove (D): 47

Roger Wicker (R-inc): 46

(MoE: ±4%)

According to the poll, Musgrove has a 49-42 favorable/unfavorable rating, while the lesser-known Wicker is sitting on a 49-32 favorable rating.

So let’s tally ’em up.  Last week, we saw a DSCC internal poll that had Musgrove up by 8 points, and a Research 2000 poll that had Wicker up by 4.

However, in the “too good to be true?” file, Rasmussen’s same round of polling shows Barack Obama in a surprisingly close race with McCain, only down 44-50.

In the state’s other Senate race, between longtime incumbent Thad Cochran and former state Rep. Erik Fleming, Cochran leads by 58% to 35%.

Rasmussen just posted a new poll of the MS special election between Ronnie Musgrove and Roger Wicker, and the results show there is indeed a very tight race.

Musgrove 47%

Wicker 46%

Spectacular news.

http://www.rasmussenreports.co…

Rasmussen (5/27, likely voters, 4/2 in parens):

Vivian Figures (D): 29 (36)

Jeff Sessions (R-inc): 62 (57)

(MoE: ±4%)

Nothing to see here, folks.

Because it sure sounds that way to me. From Action 3 News Omaha:

Esch is hoping an Obama surge here will help him but Terry’s ready to fight, with help from an all new team, what Terry calls “The Obama-Terry voter.” Terry says they are, “people who want the right kind of change.”

Esch told me today he’d like to meet the Obama-Terry voters. According to Esch he, “can’t imagine what they look like.”

Note: Despite his apparent confusion, Lee Terry is not a superdelegate.

(H/T: Dave Sund)