New Mexico Results Open Thread

Polls close in New Mexico at 9pm Eastern.  We’ll use this thread to follow the results in a number of hot congressional primaries:

  • NM-Sen (R)
  • NM-01 (D & R)
  • NM-02 (D & R)
  • NM-03 (D)

Results: Associated Press

4:34AM: Pearce wins. Time for sleep. What a great evening.

3:42AM (James): 99% in, and Pearce still holds a 2300 vote lead. The AP still hasn’t called it, but with 11 precincts outstanding, I see no way for Wilson to make up the difference.

3:05AM (James): Harry Teague pulls this one out of the fire with a 53-47 win according to the AP (95% reporting). Pearce has a 2350 vote lead over Wilson with 97% in.

2:14AM (James): 92% of the vote is in now in the 2nd CD, and Teague has expanded his lead to 53-47 (1800 votes).

2:13AM (James): 96% in, and Pearce is holding on to a 2400 vote lead over Wilson.

1:36AM (James): This could be bad news for Harry Teague. According to Heath Haussamen, results from Doña Ana County are being delayed due to problems with a rental truck.  The ballots won’t be counted for “some time”, according to local officials. Doña Ana is the home base of one Bill McCamley, who is a county commissioner there. As Samuel L. Jackson would say, hang on to yer butts.

12:53AM (James): Tinsley wins with 31%, according to the AP. In the Senate race, Pearce is holding on to his 52-48 lead with 91% reporting.

12:38AM (James): With 89% in, Pearcey is sitting at 52-48. In the 2nd CD, Teague is up by the same margin with 87% reporting.  And the AP has called NM-03 for Lujan.

12:35AM (James): The AP calls NM-01 for Martin Heinrich! I would expect a similar call for Ben Ray Lujan in the 3rd CD soon.

12:23AM: With 85% reporting, Pearce has moved back out to a 52-48 lead. It may not sound like much, but it is – Wilson would need 60% of the remaining votes to pull into a tie. That’s almost 24% better than what she’s been garnering all night. Meanwhile, in NM-02 (D), Bill McCamley also trails Harry Teague by 52-48, but faces an almost identical situation to Wilson’s.

12:03AM (James): With 80% in, Pearce is still up 51-49.  COME ON, PEARCEY!  Teague is clinging to a 51-49 lead with 83% in.

11:48PM (James): With 71% in, Pearce is up by 51-49. In the 2nd CD, with 76% reporting, Teague is clinging to his 52-48 lead, while Tinsley enjoys a 10% lead on his closest competitor. In the 3rd CD, Lujan has surged ahead big-time: he now leads Wiviott by 41-28 with 85% in.

11:22PM (James): With 55% in, we’re at 52-48 for Pearce. In the 2nd CD, Teague is also up by only 52-48.

11:07PM (James): With 44% in, Pearce is holding onto his 52-48 lead.  Heinrich is holding comfortably, but Teague only has a 53-47 lead over McCamley in 59% lead. Tinsley has some breathing room, and Wiviott has pulled to a 5% lead in the 3rd district with 60% in.

10:45PM (James): With 30% in, Pearce leads by 52-48. In the 2nd CD, Teague leads McCamley by 56-44 with 42% in. In the GOP primary, Tinsley has a slight lead. In the 3rd CD, Lujan has taken a 10% lead over Wiviott with 26% in.

10:31PM: With 17% in, Pearce has a 57-43 lead.

10:02PM (James): With 8% in, Wilson leads Pearce by 53-47. In the 2nd CD, Newman has taken a small lead over Tinsley and Dunn with 20% in, and Teague has a big lead in the Democratic race. In the 3rd CD, Wiviott leads by 2% over Lujan with 2% of precincts reporting.

9:50PM: Fifty minutes after polls have closed, and very few precincts have reported in. (Remember the problems NM had in tallying its presidential primary results?) Anyhow, with just a handful of votes in, Wilson leads Pearce 61-39. In the 1st CD, Heinrich has a sizable early lead over Vigil-Goron and Grisham. In the 2nd CD, Teague has a twenty-point lead over McCamley on our side, while there is a tight battle for first place between Tinsley and Dunn for the GOPers. Other results are either not in or too minimal to be worth relaying.

Alabama and New Jersey Results Open Thread

Polls close in Alabama and New Jersey at 8pm Eastern.  We’ll use this thread to follow the results in a number of hot congressional primaries.

  • Alabama: AL-02 (D & R), AL-05 (R)

    Results: Associated Press | AL.com

  • New Jersey: NJ-Sen (D), NJ-03 (R), NJ-05 (D), NJ-07 (R)













    83% of Precincts Reporting
    Lautenberg 168,890 62%
    Andrews 87,248 32%

    Results: Associated Press | NJ.com

    11:55PM (David): The AP says there will indeed be a run-off between Wayne Parker and Cheryl Guthrie. There must be plenty of teeth-gnashing at Parker headquarters – he took 49%, just a hair shy of avoiding the run-off outright. Guthrie, meawhile, is far back at 18%. But she’s been waging a very negative campaign lately, which hopefully will continue – and soften up the eventual winner even further for Dem Parker Griffith in the fall. The run-off is July 15th.

    10:48PM (David): AL-02 will go to a run-off between Love and Smith. In AL-05, Parker is hovering at 48% with 93% of the votes counted. If he can’t clear 50%, he’ll face Guthrie in a run-off.

    10:39PM: Chris Myers just won NJ-03 and Leonard Lance won NJ-07 according to the AP.

    10:22PM: The AP is calling NJ-05 for Dennis Shulman!

    10:11PM: The AP is calling NJ-Sen for Frank Lautenberg!

    9:43PM: The AP is calling AL-02 for Bobby Bright.

    9:33PM: Whoops — I can’t believe we forgot about NJ-05 (D). Rabbi Dennis Shulman is leading Camille Abate by 57-34 with 34% reporting.

    9:19PM: Some tidbits from Alabama — Bobby Bright is crushing in AL-02 so far, while Jay Love is the early leader on the GOP side. However, Love’s base is in Montgomery, so we should see Smith surge when the Wiregrass region is counted.

    9:10PM: Lautenberg is cruising so far. Jack Kelly, the weaker of the two NJ-03 GOP front runners, has a 45-30-25 lead over Justin Murphy and the stronger Chris Myers with 29% reporting. With 8% reporting in NJ-07, Leonard Lance has a 60-19 lead over Kate Whitman.  

  • MA-Sen: Ogonowski Misses the Ballot

    Haw haw!

    In a major embarrassment to Republican leaders in Massachusetts and in the U.S. Senate, Jim Ogonowski, the party’s anointed candidate to challenge Democratic Senator John F. Kerry, failed by a razor-thin margin today to qualify for the GOP primary ballot.

    With Ogonowski’s stunning blunder, the only GOP name on the primary ballot will be Jeff Beatty, a little-known security expert from Harwich.

    According to Secretary of State William F. Galvin’s office, Ogonowski’s campaign delivered just 9,970 certified voter signatures to its election division today just before the final deadline, 30 short of the 10,000 he needed.

    His only options now are to seek relief in the courts by saying some local officials lost his signatures, as he claimed late today, or to mount a write-in campaign for the September primary.

    This leaves MA GOPers in an awkward spot: Do they support Ogonowski’s faint hopes of making the ballot, or do they start to rally around the other choice, Jeff Beatty?

    This cycle has been an absolute litany of fuck-ups for the GOP.

    A 45 Seat House Pickup?

    Over the past few months, I continuously pinched myself as the race for the House of Representatives developed. Recruitments, polls and Republican primary results against incumbenets such as Indiana’s Dan Burton sent signal after signal that we could be in for another big year. Now, a Democracy Corps poll as reported at Talking Points Memo indicate to pollster Stan Greenberg that we could be in for an even bigger year than 2006.  

    Are House Democrats on the verge of an unprecedented second “wave election” in a row — one that could win them up to another 45 House seats?

    That’s the astonishing finding of a new survey by the Democracy Corps, the Democratic polling firm run by Stan Greenberg and James Carville.

    The new survey polled 1,600 people across 45 GOP-held districts, ranging from the competitive Tier 1 to harder-to-reach Tier 2 with the named incumbents and their opponents used instead of generic match-ups. The aggregate results showed the Democratic candidate winning the Tier 1 races 51%-42%, and the edging out the GOP 48%-45% in the Tier 2 match-ups, though they trailed 43%-51% in the “rural/small town” category.

    During a conference call with reporters, Greenberg was bullish on the Dems’ chances this Fall, predicting a second wave on top of the one from 2006: “It’s certainly reasonable to think that of these 45 seats, half these seats could go to the Democrat if the trend holds.”

    In June I think it is a  stretch to be so bulling and cling to my prediction of about 20-21 seats, but I am doing so in the face of evidence to the contrary. Certainly we have the money, candidates and energy to blow this election wide open. Let’s make it happen.

    [UPDATE]

    In my excitement, I missed where Greenberg suggested HALF of the 45 could flip. Regardless, we’re in for a big year.

    NY-13: Primaries for Both Parties? (Recchia Withdraws)

    (From the diaries with a few light edits. Be sure to bookmark Jonah’s NY-13 Blog for the latest news on this race. – promoted by James L.)

    All signs point to a McMahon vs. Harrison primary on the Democratic side of this race.  Today brings us news that we might also have a primary on the Republican side.  Dr. Jamshad Wyne (R), GOP Finance Chair in Staten Island has indeed entered the race;

    The Todt Hill resident, who has gone back and forth on the race over the last two weeks, announced yesterday he would challenge Frank Powers, a Metropolitan Transportation Authority board member and retired Wall Street executive, for the GOP congressional nod.

    Wyne had stated after Frank Powers won the Richmond County GOP endorsement that he likely would vote for the Democrat Mike McMahon.  There is a lot of frustration on the GOP side among ranking members with their party’s choice.  If Wyne does follow through and challenges Powers in a primary that would be even better news for us.  My guess though is we will see the party get him out, whether offering him the nomination for another office or just removing him from the party leadership.

    Also interesting is the possibility that the Conservative Party will break with the GOP nomination and support their own candidate, possibly Paul Atanasio.  If this happens this seats even further to a likely pick up for us. Primaries are scheduled for September 9th.

    UPDATE: Domenic Recchia withdraws:

    As Democrats, we have an incredible opportunity before us, to turn a red seat blue and bring true change and real leadership to the residents in Staten Island and Brooklyn. That will not happen if we are not united as a party.

    Therefore, I am withdrawing my bid for the 13th Congressional district, and will support our party’s nominee, Mike McMahon.

    Thank you to all of the people who believed in me, worked for me and fought for me over the last year – especially those who encouraged me to stay in the race despite the altered political landscape.

    Most of all, I would like to thank the voters of the congressional district, who welcomed me with open arms and believed in my message.

    I have not made any decisions about my political future and have no further comment at this time.

    TX-10: New Poll Shows a Close Race

    IVR Polls (6/2, likely voters):

    Larry Joe Doherty (D): 46

    Michael McCaul (R-inc): 52

    (MoE: ±4.3%)

    While this district does have a PVI or R+13, it’s been trending in the right direction: Al Gore won 34% of its vote in 2000, while John Kerry won 38% four years later. The real eye-opener came in 2006, when McCaul’s performance sagged dramatically against an underfunded challenger:

    Mike McCaul (R): 55

    Ted Ankrum (D): 41

    Michael Badnarik (L): 4

    This time, McCaul is up against a fairly well-funded challenger, lawyer and local TV celebrity Larry Joe Doherty.

    We’ve had our eye on this race for a while, but this is the first poll we’ve seen that actually suggests McCaul could be in trouble. In fact, it’s the first poll of any kind that we’ve seen of this race. The same survey shows Sen. Cornyn leading Rick Noriega by 54-44, and McCain leading Obama by 55-41 in the district.

    In the diaries, the pollster has more:

    Historically, turnout in this district doesn’t include large numbers of Latinos or African-Americans. In this poll, both groups went with Doherty, Latinos by 2-1 and African-Americans by 7-1. If Obama at the top of the ticket increases African-American general election turnout as he has in the primary, and these additional voters follow through on the down-ballot races, Doherty could close the gap even further. Increased Latino turnout in the primary was mainly a reflection of Clinton’s popularity, but there is a possibility that Noriega could also increase Latino turnout for the general, further benefiting Doherty.

    Interesting (and exciting) stuff.

    OH-16: Where John Boccieri Lives

    Cross-posted from OH-16: John Boccieri for U.S. Congress:

    The drumbeat about where Ohio State Senator Major John Bocceri lives started in the Democratic Primary Race for the United States House of Representative for Ohio’s 16th Congressional District. It was the only plank his Democratic Primary opponent could find to use against him and it didn’t stick. The Major won by nearly a 2-1 margin in all four counties of the 16th, Ashland, Medina, Stark and Wayne, in the March 4th Primary.

    As if by some stroke of political genius, this drumbeat was supposed to stick through November as the big isssue. And, almost like a Rovellian tantric chant, it seems to keep popping up. John was actually hoping that “the carpetbagger” issue would remain a central theme to the campaign against him. The Major’s response to the issue has never changed:

    “They are worried about where I lay my head down on the pillow at night, but I’m more worried about where people go to work in the morning.”

    How historically hypocritical can they get? That would be a thing of beauty coming from a Republican opponent, but it seems the Democratic constituency in Ohio’s Fighting 16th are a more sophisticated voter than that!

    So, without further adieu, thank you, GARY SCHERER of PERRY TOWNSHIP, you make this writer’s job so easy! He said:

    But all that aside, let’s look at the final authority on this matter, the U.S. Constitution, which states in Article 1, Section 2, on the House of Representatives:

    “No Person shall be a Representative who shall not have attained to the Age of twenty five Years and been seven years a Citizen of the United States, and who shall not, when elected, be an Inhabitant of that State in which he shall be chosen.”

    As you can see, there is no requirement that a member of the House reside in the district he or she represents, only the state. And since Sen. Boccieri lives in Ohio – except when he has been called upon to serve in Iraq, which he has done numerous times – the residency issue appears to be a dead one.

    Man, that just about makes me giddy! I swear I’ve already read that four or five times before I posted it. That draws on a huge distinction between the Democratic voter and the Republican voter in a generic comparison. It is this writer’s experience, Democratic voters tend to be logically issue driven and Republican voters tend to be passionately value driven. The smoke screen quietly drifts away into oblivion.

    Over this past weekend, volunteers spread out across Ohio’s 16th Congressional District. Before it was over with they had knocked on some 500 doors talking to potential voters about State Senator Major John Bocccieri and the issues that are most important here; jobs and the economy, the War in Iraq, Health care, gas prices, the rising cost of groceries, and home heating/cooling prices.

    In a bit of irony, the John Boccieri for U.S. Congress campaign won the “Most Patriotic” award for our entry in the Bethlehem Township parade. We had a decorated Ford truck and handed out flags. John walked in the parade with about five or six staff members and supporters. This is Ralph Regula’s home area. Pretty cool, indeed!

    So, I sit here somewhat stymied after all of this exercise. A series of questions keep rolling through my mind. What do you want to debate Senator Schuring? The War in Iraq and The 100 year McCain Doctrine? The 21st Century GI Bill? Making immediate use of alternative energy solutions? Creating and keeping jobs in the 16th Congressional District? Health care for every child, woman or man in the 16th District? The outrageous cost of fuel at the pump? How about the Mortgage Crisis? Constitutionally funding our childrens education? It’s time to start speaking up; November 4th is closer than you think!

    (HT: Ian & Chris)

    TX-10 Leans Red, Moving Blue

    In 2004, George Bush took 62% of the vote in Texas’ 10th Congressional District. In 2006, Michael McCaul was held to 55% by a poorly funded Democrat and a relatively well funded Libertarian. My own polling a week before the election found 7% undecided, but the challengers had no funds to close the deal and undecided stayed with the incumbent. As a disclaimer, and an illustration of the funding issue, I did $90 in robocalls for the challenger, Ted Ankrum, in the closing days.

    For the 2008 race, in polling on June 2, 528 likely voters gave McCaul a 5.4% lead over Democratic challenger Larry Joe Doherty. McCaul received 51.7% to Doherty’s 46.3%, with 2.0% undecided.

    TX-10 is described as a ‘barbell district’ due to having a large chunk of the district in Travis County (Austin), a large chunk in Harris County (Houston) and a thin strip of highway frontage in between. In 2006, Harris went 71-26 for McCaul and Travis went 56-38 for Ankrum. In this poll, McCaul takes Harris 63-33 and Doherty takes Travis by the same 63-33. Travis is the slightly larger end of the TX-10 barbell, but the ‘bar’ in between went 70-30 for McCaul, resulting in a McCaul lead.

    Of note, I also polled Obama-McCain and Cornyn-Noriega in this district and found those races to be more favorable to the other Republicans than they are to McCaul. Cornyn leads Noriega 54-44 and McCain leads Obama 55-41. Statewide, my past results have been more in line with Baselice than SurveyUSA or Rasmussen on these races, but I do not have current statewide numbers to report.

    Historically, turnout in this district doesn’t include large numbers of Latinos or African-Americans. In this poll, both groups went with Doherty, Latinos by 2-1 and African-Americans by 7-1. If Obama at the top of the ticket increases African-American general election turnout as he has in the primary, and these additional voters follow through on the down-ballot races, Doherty could close the gap even further. Increased Latino turnout in the primary was mainly a reflection of Clinton’s popularity, but there is a possibility that Noriega could also increase Latino turnout for the general, further benefitting Doherty.

    There is no significant gender gap in these results, but age is a factor. Voters under 40 go with the Democrat in each race. Voters from 40-59 go with the Republican by small margins. Voters over 60 go Republican in all cases, but margin is much larger in races for President and Senator.

    528 likely voters polled 6/2/2008, margin of error 4.3%

     

    June 3rd Poll Closing Times, Key Races & Predictions

    As James detailed last week, there are a ton of important primaries tonight. Here’s when the polls close, state by state, along with the key races in each (all times Eastern):

    8pm:

    &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Alabama (AL-02 D & R; AL-05 R)

    &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp New Jersey (NJ-Sen D; NJ-03 R; NJ-07 R)

    9pm:

    &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp New Mexico (NM-Sen R; NM-01 D & R; NM-02 D & R; NM-03 D)

    10pm:

    &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp Iowa (IA-03 D)

    11pm:

    &nbsp&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp&nbsp California (CA-04 R)

    Please post your predictions in the comments!

    We’d also be very grateful if you could give us links to good sites which will carry the results. Thanks!

    (Poll closing times courtesy The Green Papers.)

    Conniver’s June Federal Race Projections

    I’ve been going through the Federal Races and have been deciding on my opinion on each of the races.

    I did this by myself last cycle and did fairly well.

    I had the democrats winning back the house and Senate. 32 seats in the house and 51 seats in the Senate.

    I predicted the house correctly with the exception of Maffei, Madrid, Massa, and Duckworth who I had winning and Boyda and Shea Porter losing.

    I also had the Senate Victories correct with the exception of Virgina and Tennessee. I had Harold Ford Jr. winning and Jim Webb losing.

    I also had us winning those 3 special elections in 2008.

    In my own personal sheet that I have been doing for 2008, I had before revision a 29 seat pickup for the Democrats in the House and a 7 Seat pickup in the Senate and a 308-230 Obama victory. After revising my lists today, I have expanded my victories to a level I honestly never thought was possible before. However after going through each one of these races I believe you can defend each and everyone of them.

    I currently have a 37 seat pickup for the democrats with 4 congressional loses and 41 wins. And a 9 Seat pickup for Democrats in the Senate. With an Obama Victory of 311-227 victory.

    This isn’t really done on raw numbers but more on my feel for the national mood and my predictions of how the general election will unfold. My list will no doubt change a lot in the next few months (especially when he picks a VP) however this is what I believe would happen if events fold out in the next few months as I think. Namely an Obama Thumping of John McCain.

     

    These are the Races which I consider Democratic victories if I Extrapolate my predicted outcomes in the general (National mood, state, and outlook towards the Presidential Race):

    1) Alabama 2nd Congressional  Open (Everett) Bobby Bright

    2) Alaska At-Large Congressional Don Young (contested primary) Ethan Berkowitz

    3) Arizona 1st Congressional Open (Renzi) Ann Kirkpatrick

    4) California 4th Congressional Open (Doolittle) Charlie Brown

    5) California 26th Congressional David Dreier Russ Warner

    6) Colorado 4th Congressional Maryiln Musgrave Besty Markey

    7) Conneticut 4th Congressional Chris Shays Jim Himes

    8) Florida 13th Congressional Vern Buchanan Christine Jennings

    9) Florida 21st Congressional Lincoln Diaz-Balart Raul Martinez

    10) Florida 24th Congressional Tom Feeney Suzanne Kosmas

    11) Idaho 2nd Congressional Bill Sali Walter Minnick

    12) Illinois 10th Congressional Mark Kirk Dan Seals

    13) Illinois 11th Congressional Open (Weller) Debbie Halvorson

    14) Illinois 18th Congressional Open (LaHood) Colleen Callahan

    15) Michigan 7th Congressional Tim Walberg Mark Schauer

    16) Michigan 9th Congressional Joe Knollenberg Gary Peters

    17) Minnesota 2nd Congressional John Kline Steve Sarvi

    18) Minnesota 3rd Congressional Open (Ramstead) Ashwin Madia

    19) Missouri 6th Congressional Sam Graves Kay Barnes

    20) Missouri 9th Congressional Open (Hulshof) TBA

    21) Nebraska 2nd Congressional Lee Terry Jim Esch

    22) Nevada 2nd Congressional Dean Heller Jill Derby

    23) Nevada 3rd Congressional Jon Porter Dina Titus

    24) New Jersey 3rd Congressional Open (Saxton) John Alder

    25) New Jersey 5th Congressional Scott Garrett Dennis Shulman

    26) New Jersey 7th Congressional Open (Ferguson) Linda Stender

    27) New Meixco 1st Congressional Open (Wilson) Martin Heinrich

    28) New Mexico 2nd Congressional Open (Pearce) Harry Teague

    29) New York 13th Congressional Open (Fossella) Mike McMahon

    30) New York 25th Congressional Open (Walsh) Dan Maffei

    31) New York 26th Congressional Open (Reynolds) Jon Powers

    32) New York 29th Congressional Randy Kuhl Eric Massa

    33) North Carolina 8th Congressional Robin Hayes Larry Kissell

    34) Ohio 1st Congressional Steve Chabot Steve Driehaus

    35) Ohio 2nd Congressional Jean Schmidt(I had mean Jean winning last time I think Obama helps Wulsin enough to get the win) Victoria Wulsin

    36) Ohio 15th Congressional Open (Pryce) Mary Jo Killroy

    37) Ohio 16th Congressional Open (Regula) John Boccieri

    38) Virginia 2nd Congressional Thelma Drake Glenn Nye

    39) Virginia 11th Congressional Open (Davis) TBA

    40) Washington 8th Congressional Dave Reichert Darcy Burner

    41) Wyoming At Large Congressional Open (Cubin) Gary Trauner

    Races to watch:

    1) Arizona 3rd Congressional John Shadegg Bob Lord

    2) California 42nd Congressional Gary Miller Ed Chau

    3) California 46th Congressional Dana Rohrabacher Debbie Cook

    4) Florida 8th Congressional Ric Keller Charlie Stuart

    5) Florida 9th Congressional Gus Bilarakis Bill Mitchell

    6) Florida 18th Congressional Illeana Ros-Lehtinen Annette Taddeo

    7) Florida 25th Congressional Mario Diaz-Balart Joe Garcia

    8) Illinois 6th Congressional Peter Roskam Jill Morganthaler

    9) Illinois 13th Congressional Judy Biggert Scott Harper

    10) Illinois 15th Congressional Tim Johnson Steve Cox

    11)  Minnesota 6th Congressional Michele Bachmann Elwiyn Tinklenberg

    12) Ohio 14th Congressional Steve Latourette Bill O’Neil

    13) Pennslyvania 15th Congressional Charlie Dent Sam Bennett

    14) South Carolina 2nd Congressional Joe Wilson Rob Miller

    15) Texas 10th Congressional Michael McCAul Larry Doherty

    16) Texas 7th Congressional John Culberson Michael Skelly

    17) Virginia 5th Congressional Virgil Goode Tom Perriello

    18) West Virginia 2nd Congressional Shelly Capito Anne Barth

    19) Maryland 1st Congressional Open (Gilchrest) Frank Kratovil

    Democratic Loses:

    1) Florida 16th Congressional Tim Mahoney (Don’t know his opponent is but he barely beat Negron with Mark Foley’s name on the ballot)

    2) Kentucky 3rd Congressional John Yarmuth Anne Northup

    3) Pennslyvania 10th Congressional Chris Carney Chris Hackett

    4) Texas 22nd Congressional Nick Lampson Pete Olson

    Potential Democratic Loses

    1) Alabama 5th Congressional Open (Cramer) Parker Griffith

    2) Arizona 8th Congressional Giffords Randy Graff

    3) California 11th Congressional McNerney Dean Andel

    4) Kansas 2nd Congressional Boyda Jim Ryun

    5) New Hampshire 1st Congressional Shea-Porter Jeff Bradley

    6) Oregon 5th Congressional Open (Hooley) Kurt Schrader

    Overall Dem +37

    111th Congress

    Democrats  273

    Republicans 162

    62.75% controlled by Dems

    Maximum Dem Gain Scenario

    Overall Dem +60

    111th Congress

    Democrats 296

    Republicans 139

    68.05% controlled by Dems



    Senatorial


    Democratic Pickups

    1) Virgina Open (Warner) Warner

    2) New Mexico Open (Dominici) Udall

    3) New Hampshire Sunnunu Sheehan

    4) Colorado Open (Allard) Udall

    5) Alaska Stevens Begich

    6) Minnesota Coleman Franken

    7) North Carolina Dole Hagan

    8) Mississippi Wicker Musgrove

    9) Oregon Smith Merkley

    Potential Democratic Pickups

    1)  Maine Collins Allen

    2) Kentucky McConnell Lunsford

    3) Texas Cornyn Noreiga

    4) Nebraska Open(Hagel) Klebb

    5) Kansas Roberts Slattery

    Potential Democratic Loses

    1) Louisiana Landreui Kennedy

    Overall Democrat +9

    111th Congress

    Democrats 60

    Republicans 40

    Filibuster Proof Majority

    60% Dem Controlled

    Maximum Dem Gain Scenario

    Overall Democrat +14

    111th Congress

    Democrats 65

    Republicans 35

    65% Dem Controlled



    Presidential

    State Obama McCain Electoral Votes

    California Dem 55

    Texas** Rep 34

    New York Dem 31

    Florida* Rep 27

    Illinois Dem 21

    Pennsylvania* Dem 21

    Ohio* Dem 20

    Michigan* Dem 17

    Georgia** Rep 15

    North Carolina* Rep 15

    New Jersey** Dem 15

    Virginia* Dem 13

    Massachusetts Dem 12

    Washington Dem 11

    Indiana* Rep 11

    Tennessee Rep 11

    Missouri* Rep 11

    Arizona Rep 10

    Maryland Dem 10

    Wisconsin** Dem 10

    Minnesota Dem 10

    Colorado* Dem 9

    Alabama Rep 9

    Louisiana** Rep 9

    South Carolina Rep 8

    Kentucky Rep 8

    Oregon** Dem 7

    Oklahoma Rep 7

    Connecticut Dem 7

    Iowa** Dem 7

    Mississippi** Rep 6

    Arkansas Rep 6

    Kansas Rep 6

    Utah Rep 5

    Nevada* Dem 5

    New Mexico* Dem 5

    West Virginia Rep 5

    Nebraska Rep 4(Rep)/1(Dem)

    Idaho Rep 4

    Maine Dem 4

    New Hampshire* Rep 4

    Hawaii Dem 4

    Rhode Island Dem 4

    Montana** Rep 3

    Deleware Dem 3

    South Dakota Rep 3

    Alaska* Dem 3

    North Dakota Rep 3

    Vermont Dem 3

    District of Columbia Dem 3

    Wyoming Rep 3

    Obama 311 McCain 227 total 538

    *denotes First Tier Battleground

    **denotes Second Tier Battleground

    Some comments on the Congressional races first off Florida, Michigan,Minnesota,Ohio,Nebraska and Illinois are extremely hard to determine at this point.

    Michigan, and Florida because I have no idea if Obama can win Florida and bring up some of these congressional elections who need a nudge over the top and Michigan because I need Obama to perform their like a Democratic President is expected to (in my rankings I’m assuming he can and I honestly think he’s going to make Florida a real serious race).

    Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio and Illinois are all about Obama coatails. I think Obama wins us the congressional district with Omaha in it because I see a huge victory their for Obama and its one electoral vote. And all the races in Minnesota and Illinois except MN-03 and Il-11 which I think we win either way, depend heavily on how big of numbers Obama racks up. All the Ohio districts except Mary Jo Killroy depend on Obama winning Ohio as well and if he can give us a more then 51-49 margin.(53-47 would do it for the all those congressmen and its what I’m assuming he wins by in the end)

    Missouri I think is the race that goes down to the wire, I have McCain winning in an Obamaesque fashion in the state primary. But I think its enough to win those two seats.

    Virginia Obama just needs to win and the two seats I have democrats winning Davis and Drake, go into the democratic column. (Davis will go dem either way)

    Also if you notice I have Obama doing very well in the West. I think this is where Obama coattails will be strongest and will move us to victories in Wyoming, Idaho and Nevada. While he won’t win us Wyoming and Idaho on the Presidential level, he will drive democratic turnout enough and in combination with a bad incumbent in Idaho and a good candidate in Wyoming, I see two victories in these blood red states.

    I have Alaska going hard hard democratic if you notice. I have us winning the Senate,house and electoral votes. I think Stevens gets indicted after he’s nominated and they are screwed because they won’t be able to get his name off the ballot. I think we can win all three if Obama goes to the state once after Stevens get indicted.

    In regards to the Senatorial race fairly simple, 7 are pretty much assuming we win the top 4 gimme races and the two tossups in blue states (Oregon and Minnesota) I think Stevens goes down in Alaska and black turnout in Mississippi gives Musgrove a big win. North Carolina i have us wining based on some of the polling and I think Obama will drive the black vote up and could potentially win the state and the Senate Seat for the democrats.

    Thoughts comments?

    update:I changed the Missouri 9th race to TBA as their are two legit contenders for the democratic nod and denoted the contested primary in Alaska At Large.

    Does anyone know who Mahoney’s opponent is, I couldn’t find it.

    update two: changing races based on tonight’s results, just plugging in the primary winners