FL-21 (L. Diaz-Balart)
FL-25 (M. Diaz-Balart)
11 D, 1 R
18 D, 3 R
2 D, 14 R
Races to Watch:
|CA-03 (Lungren) ||IL-13 (Biggert) ||MN-02 (Kline) ||OK-01 (Sullivan)|
|CA-45 (B. Mack) ||IN-04 (Buyer) ||NC-10 (McHenry) ||PA-05 (Open)|
|CA-52 (Open) ||KS-04 (Tiahrt) ||NJ-04 (Smith) ||SC-01 (Brown)|
|IA-04 (Latham) ||LA-01 (Scalise) ||OH-03 (Turner) ||SC-02 (Wilson)|
Today’s ratings changes:
AL-02 (Open): Lean Republican to Tossup
Despite all the hype surrounding the DCCC’s recruitment of Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright, we have until now been skeptical of Bright’s ability to seal the deal in this conservative R+13.2 district. No longer.
Republicans emerged from their primary with deep divisions – divisions that Bright is now capitalizing on, as most recently evidenced by his endorsement from the Republican mayor of Dothan, the second-largest population center of the district. With two recent polls showing Bright leading by 10 points, the Republicans can no longer claim a clear edge here.
AL-03 (Rogers): Safe Republican to Likely Republican
This race is certainly still a long shot, but Alabama’s 3rd District was drawn to elect a Democrat, and it almost did so in 2002. GOP Rep. Mike Rogers has held this district since then with ease, but attorney Josh Segall’s fundraising (he’s raised $521K since starting his campaign earlier this year) and the district’s demographics can’t be ignored.
CO-04 (Musgrave): Lean Republican to Tossup
All is not well in Musgraveland. A divisive reputation and years of being pounded by negative third-party ads seems to have taken a heavy toll on GOP Rep. Marilyn Musgrave’s political health. The two most recent polls of this race have shown the incumbent trailing Democrat Betsy Markey by seven points in this Dem-trending R+8.4 district (the SUSA poll showed the presidential race nearly tied). The NRCC’s decision to reserve a whopping $1.2 million in ad time for this district is quite telling, too. A tossup this is.
MI-07 (Walberg): Lean Republican to Tossup
Democrat Mark Schauer, a state senator, is a proven vote-getter in the conservative-leaning Battle Creek area, but his campaign against frosh GOP weirdo Tim Walberg has yet to engage fully. However, the cold hard reality of the numbers are catching up to Walberg — a recent EPIC-MRA poll shows his lead shrinking to a mere three points, while his job approval rating is in the dumps. With voters clearly frustrated with the status quo in Michigan, Walberg’s political fate is very much up in the air.
NH-02 (Hodes): Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic
Under the rubric we use to rate races at SSP, a race in the “likely” column is one where an upset cannot be completely, entirely ruled out. We’re pretty sure that we can rule one out in New Hampshire’s 2nd District. Democrat Paul Hodes has by all accounts performed well in his first term in office, and all the polls we’ve seen confirm this. Hodes’ Republican challengers are a sorry lot, and are squandering their meager resources on a meaningless and mostly annoying primary. The eventual GOP victor does not stand a ghost of a chance against Hodes in November in this Dem-trending district.
NY-13 (Open): Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic
It’s hard to believe, but the GOP’s chances of retaining this Staten Island-based district get worse and worse by the week. The only real candidate that the GOP could find, former state Assemblyman Robert Straniere, is both hated and unloved. And it shows in his fundraising, with only a paltry $15,000 raised for his campaign so far. Furthermore, his primary against physician Jamshad Wyne has taken a turn for the ugly and racist. The cherry on top? Straniere admits that he can’t even vote for himself in the primary, as he lives in Manhattan — very much a game killer in the parochial nature of Staten Island politics. Meanwhile, Democrat Mike McMahon continues to steamroll in fundraising.
NY-26 (Open): Tossup to Lean Republican
We don’t enjoy making this call, but it’s hard to deny that Democrats have engaged in a damaging and resource-draining primary here between nutjob billionaire Jack Davis, Iraq vet Jon Powers, and attorney Alice Kryzan. Davis, in particular, has leveled some damaging accusations against Powers’ charity work on behalf of Iraqi children that continue to cause unwanted headaches for his campaign. Moreover, Davis himself is crazy as fuck, and there’s a very real chance that he could win the primary here due to his massive spending and name ID advantage from two previous campaigns. If so, we may be looking at a Likely R race against the relatively noncontroversial (so far) and well-funded Republican businessman Chris Lee.
If this winds up being a Powers-Lee race, this could return to tossup state at some point, especially if the DCCC brings its considerable resources to bear and if the NRCC can’t follow suit.
PA-03 (English): Likely Republican to Lean Republican
The GOP’s poll numbers in this R+1.6 district must be atrocious, because incumbent Phil English has clearly hit the panic button with a summer full of defensive campaign ads, and the NRCC itself has set aside over $800K in ad time to attack Democratic candidate Kathy Dahlkemper. Does that sound like behavior that merits a “Likely Republican” rating to you? Yeah, me neither.