Month: October 2008

Garin Hart Yang for Bruce Lunsford (10/26-27, likely voters, 10/6-7 in parens):

Bruce Lunsford (D): 45 (45)

Mitch McConnell (R-inc): 47 (48)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Here we are, a few days before the election, and the Minority Leader of the United States Senate is ahead by only two points and under the 50% threshold. That’s hardly a position of strength for the mighty McConnell. The polling memo, which is available below the fold, also notes that the sample may be underestimating African-American turnout by a significant margin — enough to perhaps give Lunsford an extra couple of points.

On another note, Lunsford has a pair of new ads out — one featuring excerpts from a stump speech from the Bubba Queen herself, Hillary Clinton (what an extraordinary sign of the times), and the other featuring a famous pack of bloodhounds.

UPDATE: The latest Rasmussen poll has McConnell ahead by 51-44, essentially unchanged from last week, when Mitch led by 50-43. Rasmussen has been a bit friendlier to McConnell than other pollsters have in recent weeks, but we’ll find out which poll is more accurate soon enough.

LATER UPDATE: Mason-Dixon has McConnell up by 47-42, which is an improvement for him over late September, when the race was nearly tied at 45-44.

From the moment this race began to close I’ve been hoping that Lunsford would reprise McConnell’s classic “Bloodhound” ad.  Well, now he’s done it!  I’m afraid I don’t know how to embed videos, but it’s available on The Scorecard, which can be reached both through the Politico and RealClearPolitics.  Not only do they have the new Lunsford ad, but they also have a link to the original McConnell ad.

For those who don’t know it, McConnell’s initial win over Democratic incumbent Dee Huddleston was largely credited to an ad where bloodhounds were trying to find a Huddleston lookalike, based on the fact that he had missed a lot of votes in the Senate.  Now Lunsford has rolled out a parallel ad where the hounds are trying to find McConnell to get him to fess up to his real record in Washington.

I was living in Kentucky when McConnell ran the original ad.  What poetic justice if a revised version of that classic ad would help bring him down in 2008!

Harstad Strategic Services (10/19-22, likely voters):

Larry LaRocco (D): 33

Jim Risch (R): 45

Rex Rammell (I): 5

Pro-Life (I): 2

(MoE: ±4.4%)

I don’t agree with McJoan’s assessment that the DSCC should lay down some last-minute coin to push LaRocco over the edge here — a few 30-second ads won’t be enough to make up a 12-point gap with only a few days left on the clock. And while Risch isn’t wildly popular in Idaho (his favorable rating is 41-28), LaRocco is even less loved — his favorable rating clocks in at a 34-37. Unfair? Maybe, but this is Idaho, and these numbers aren’t going to get the job done. The DSCC is correct to focus on tighter races.

But the real nugget from this poll is its 1st CD numbers:

Walt Minnick (D): 48

Bill Sali (R-inc): 41

(MoE: ±5.9%)

Keep in mind that the sample size is quite small here, but it’s the second poll in recent days showing Sali trailing Minnick (SUSA had Minnick up by six). Minnick might just pull this one off.

Rasmussen (10/29, likely voters, 10/8 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 52 (49)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 46 (44)

(MoE: ±4.0%)

Rasmussen looks very good for Kay Hagan in the North Carolina senate race: six is the biggest lead she’s had in a Rasmussen poll, and there aren’t enough undecideds left for Dole to close the gap. Hagan’s favorables continue to climb (53-42) while Dole’s slide (46-50). The sample was taken yesterday, so it’s unclear whether the flap over the ‘godless’ ad had an effect one way or the other.

Mason-Dixon (10/22-24, likely voters, no trendlines):

Kay Hagan (D): 42

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 46

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Mason-Dixon also gives Dole 46, but that’s where the similarity stops. They say Hagan trails by 4, with lots of undecideds still on the table. Note the dates on this poll… this is part of the same plate of stale cookies as that Georgia poll that Mason-Dixon apparently sat on for a week. Oddly, despite Mason-Dixon’s focus on the south, this is their first poll of this race, and it’s the first poll by anyone in almost a month to give the edge to Dole.

UPDATE: One more North Carolina poll to throw on the heap, this time from National Journal. This one seems to confirm Rasmussen, right down to the 6-point spread.

National Journal (10/23-27, likely voters, no trendlines):

Kay Hagan (D): 43

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 37

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Dane & Associates for Glen Meakem (10/27-28, ‘probable’ voters, 10/13-14 in parens):

Jack Murtha (D-inc): 46

William Russell (R): 44

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Here’s the takeaway: don’t call your constituents ‘racists.’ Jack Murtha is an institution in this D+5 district (he’s the one of only two sitting congress members to have the local airport named after him… the other one, of course, is Ted Stevens). Institution status notwithstanding, though, we’re starting to see a pattern here in his post-gaffe environment… as much as these GOP internal polls individually seem ticky-tacky, they’re accumulating and it’s troubling that Murtha hasn’t responded in kind. With the DCCC and NRCC (as well as right-wing Vets for Freedom) jumping in with last minute ad buys, and with Murtha making a pitch for money to Move On members, we at SSP feel there’s enough cause for concern here to downgrade this race to “Likely Democratic.”

Remember that William Russell is one of the ‘defrauder’ candidates raising funds through shadowy direct mail firm BMW Direct. Josh Marshall returned to this story yesterday, finding that Russell is actually pocketing a fair bit of money ($1.1 million, out of $2.5 million raised) even after paying for BMW’s unusually large fees. That $1.1 million is still much less than the $2 million that Murtha has spent, though.

As for the other bit players in this story, Dane & Associates is a Las Vegas-based automated pollster who, as best as I can tell from a quick Google of the tubes, has never made public any of its polls prior to this race. This poll was made public through grassrootsPA.com, a right-wing state blog that seems to aspire to be a local version of Drudge, based on its firehose-spew of news items and atrocious design sensibilities. The guy who actually paid for it, Glen Meakem, seems to be a Pittsburgh-area internet rich guy with his own Republican political aspirations, at least according to this puff piece from the right-leaning Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.

Research 2000 (10/25-28, likely voters, 10/3-5 in parens):

Jill Derby (D): 44 (41)

Dean Heller (R-inc): 47 (48)

(MoE: ±5.0%)

Those are some very nice numbers for Derby. Combined with the recent Democratic voter registration surge in the district and exit polling showing Derby with a 55-44 lead in the early vote, perhaps Derby could shock us all next week. Keep your eyes on this one.

(Hat-tip: Sven)

UPDATE: We have just received word that the DCCC is buying air-time in the district on the heels of this poll.

SurveyUSA (10/27-28, likely voters, 10/13-14 in parens):

Kurt Schrader (D): 55 (51)

Mike Erickson (R): 31 (38)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

When Darlene Hooley retired, this open seat race in a D+1 district with a GOP registration edge was supposed to be a barnburner. It was… if by ‘barnburner,’ you mean Mike Erickson pouring gasoline all over his own barn and setting it on fire.

While the Democrats fielded one of their strongest possible candidates, Erickson has endured one PR disaster after another, all while watching the district’s GOP registration advantage disappear. Now he’s left watching the continually rising Obama and Merkley wave lift Schrader higher along with them, too. Oh well… he’ll always have Havana.

Public Opinion Strategies for Phil English (10/22-23, likely voters, no trendlines):

Kathy Dahlkemper (D): 45

Phil English (R-inc): 47

(MoE: ±5%)

You know the sail barge is listing badly over the pit of the Sarlacc when your own internal shows you up two and under 50. I’d love to see the trendlines on this sucker – I’m sure this isn’t the first poll POS has done for Philly. But it may very well be the last.

The NRSC has pulled out. The DSCC has pulled out. The Dem has had an unassailable and growing lead in the polls. Recriminations have already begun on the GOP side. And Barack Obama is running away with the state.

In short, Mark Udall is in a commanding position to win this race. An upset by Bob Schaffer at this late date is a remote possibility at best. Therefore, we’re changing our rating on this race from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat.

For your enjoyment, we will also once again present the leaked internal Republican strategy video for the state of Colorado:

Mason-Dixon (10/22-23, likely voters, no trendlines):

Jim Martin (D): 39

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 45

Allen Buckley: 5

Undecided: 11

(MoE: 4%)

Sneaky, sneaky. NBC commissioned this poll from Mason-Dixon and announced the results on Meet the Press – but they apparently haven’t really pushed it out online (hence the link to Pollster above). This is the first poll in some time showing daylight between the two candidates, and it also has a relatively high number of undecideds. The good news here is that Chambliss is still under 50 and if he doesn’t get too lucky with the undecideds, we’ll be headed to a runoff.