Month: October 2008

Rasmussen (9/29, likely voters, 8/21 in parens):

Rick Noriega (D): 43 (38)

John Cornyn (R-inc): 50 (52)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

I remain as skeptical as I’ve ever been that Noriega has enough gas in the tank to knock off Cornyn in this steeply expensive state, but the final result could give us a good sense of Texas’ blue trend.

Rasmussen (9/30, likely voters, 8/21 in parens):

Ronnie Musgrove (D): 47 (43)

Roger Wicker (R-inc): 49 (53)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

In the previous Rasmussen poll of this race, Wicker had jumped up to 17% among African-Americans — today, the Republican is at a mere 2% (that’s probably a bit ridiculously low, just as 17% was probably overstating his support). Musgrove is at 21% among white voters; he may need to bump that up closer to 24 or 25% in order to seal the deal here, depending on the black turnout.

Note the favorable/unfavorable numbers for both candidates: Wicker is seemingly in stronger shape at 59-36, while Musgrove is a bit more banged up at 51-44. Yet the race is as tight as ever in this poll.

Hamilton Campaigns for Harry Teague (9/2-5, registered voters):

Harry Teague (D): 46

Ed Tinsley (R): 41

Undecided: 13

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Fresh off the wire. Note that this poll is of registered voters and is a few weeks old, but it does suggest that this race is wide open. In the previous round of internal polling for Teague, Tinsley was ahead by three points.

At a PVI of R+5.7, this district is filled with many conservative Democrats who are used to pulling the lever for Republicans like Steve Pearce, but Teague’s profile as an oilman with conservative tendencies is helping to put this open seat race in play.

UPDATE: The full polling memo is available below the fold, and it contains some nice movement for Teague’s favorable/unfavorable rating.

Progress Illinois has a pretty amusing take-down of faux-moderate GOP Rep. Mark Kirk’s recent backtracking on his enthusiasm for Sarah Palin.

Earlier in September, Kirk was gushing about how “encouraged” he was that McCain tapped Palin, and that he was excited that the GOP would be the ones to once again break through “key barriers” in politics by electing a female VP. In a radio interview the next day, describing her as a “fearless” maverick with a history of bucking the old GOP guard. He even went so far as to squawk about Palin’s deep “executive experience”:

   HOWELL: How can you convince me — a guy who is not a far-right social conservative Republican — to really consider her one heart beat away from the Presidency?

   KIRK: She’s obviously an unknown figure, but she has had a rocket sled of a career already in Alaska. I think as governor, obviously she does have more executive experience — ironically — than the three other guys on the ticket. Her big asset, though, will be on the campaign. We have seen Sen. Obama now standing forth as a recognized national figure, but his greatest achievement has been his own campaign, and being able to command and defeat the electorate and push Hillary Clinton to the side. We now will look at Sarah Palin. She did very well in her first time out when she was nominated by Sen. McCain. It was a risky strategy.

With the bloom obviously coming off the Republican ticket’s rose, Kirk is now singing a much different tune:

In an interview of two of the 10th Congressional District candidates conducted by the Tribune editorial board, Kirk would not say whether he believed Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin had the qualifications to become president.

“Quite frankly, I don’t know,” said Kirk, 49, of Highland Park, when asked if Palin could step into the job. In answer to repeated inquiries about Palin’s experience, Kirk said, “I would have picked someone different.”

Of course you would have, Mark.

Update: Statement from the Seals campaign:

“It says a lot about Mark Kirk’s desperation that he will say one thing when he’s in front of an editorial board, and do another thing when he’s attending the Republican National Convention and bundling over a hundred thousand dollars for the McCain-Palin ticket. Despite his latest efforts to distance himself from the sinking McCain-Palin ship, he can’t run from his attacks against Dan for supporting the Obama agenda or praise of Palin’s now discredited ‘reformer’ credentials. Once again, Mark Kirk has shown that he is more interested in playing partisan political games than bringing the change we need to Washington.”

Val Smith for Tom McClintock (9/22-24, likely voters):

Charlie Brown (D): 39

Tom McClintock (R): 47

(MoE: ±4%)

Cute. Conservative Icon Tom McClintock finally releases an internal poll of his race to replace disgraced GOP Rep. John Doolittle, and this one shows the Icon leading by 8 points and splitting Independents by 37-48 in Brown’s favor. The poll’s release comes on the heels of a Research 2000 poll for Daily Kos that showed Brown up by five points, and a Benenson Strategy Group poll from late August that gave Brown a two-point lead.

I don’t know much about Val Smith (the Brown campaign is taking issue with their accuracy), but I think I’d rather trust the polls handled by R2K and Benenson — pollsters with more accomplished track records.

The full polling memo is available below the fold.

SurveyUSA for Roll Call (9/26-28, likely voters):

Kathy Dahlkemper (D): 49

Phil English (R-inc): 45

Undecided: 6

(MoE: ±4%)

Oh yeah. No wonder Philly has been producing so much flop sweat in recent weeks — the only two polls that have been publicly-released from this race (including a Dahlkemper internal) show the incumbent in brutal shape.

The DCCC has been pounding English hard over the airwaves for the past several weeks, and the NRCC responded in kind tonight with a media buy of their own. I’m betting that their internal polling numbers are similarly bad.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican, but I think a ratings update may be due.

Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama by 48-46 in this district — not a bad margin, considering that Bush beat Kerry by 53-47 here in 2004.

SurveyUSA (9/28-29, likely voters, 9/5-7 in parens):

Andrew Rice (D): 37 (34)

Jim Inhofe (R-inc): 53 (56)

Stephen Wallace (I): 7 (6)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

A 22-point lead becomes a 16-point lead. Still an incredibly tough race, but some signs of life, perhaps?

On the Presidential side, McCain leads Obama by 64-34 in Oklahoma — that’s down ever so slightly from 65-32 earlier in the month. Despite all the bad economic news as of late, the needle hasn’t moved much at the top the ticket in this state.

Boom goes the dynamite. The following independent expenditures were filed with the FEC tonight:

The expenditures — mostly for TV buys and some mail — amount to the biggest single-day money dump for the DCCC so far this cycle.

The beleaguered NRCC is up with their first real TV buy of the fall in PA-03 — a telling sign of GOP Rep. Phil English’s vulnerability. They should also be posting a buy against Dem Rep. Steve Kagen (WI-08) soon.

For more details on these and other expenditures, please check SSP’s Independent Expenditure Tracker.

This afternoon, I received an email alert that the prosecution may finish its presentation of evidence in the trial of Ted Stevens on Thursday, indicating to me that the end of proceedings may be near. If that is the case, that leads me to ask what happens next after a verdict is handed down.

1. Stevens is acquitted:

Stevens will have time to head up to Alaska and make thecase that he has done much for residents and deserves re-election. He may have the benefit of Sarah Palin on the presidential ticket, but will not have her endorsement. Can he pull it out or would he still be tainted?

2. Stevens is convicted but still runs:

A conviction will force him to resign form the senate but not to remove his name from the ballot, assuming he appeals the case. If he remains on the ballot, it really will be over and the race will rank right up there with Virginia.

3. Stevens is convicted and drops out:

I do not know what the deadline to have your name removed from the ballot and replaced. Even if h can, does Parnell run? And if Parnell runs, can he ride Palin’s coattails to the senate?

What do you think?

PPP (9/28-29, likely voters, 9/17-19 in parens):

Bev Perdue (D): 41 (44)

Pat McCrory (R): 44 (43)

Michael Munger (L): 5 (6)

(MoE: ±3%)

Hmmmm. While most pollsters are seeing Barack Obama and Kay Hagan suddenly and surprisingly pulling away in North Carolina, it also seems that most pollsters are also seeing Democrat Bev Perdue fall behind Pat McCrory in the open North Carolina gubernatorial race.

What’s significant is that PPP is the pollster that has been most favorable to Perdue; this is the first PPP poll showing her trailing McCrory. This is also apparently the same sample that gave Hagan that staggering 8-point edge, so there seems to be some troublesome ticket splitting that’ll need to be overcome.