Lieberman Donated to Gordon Smith & Peter King

What an asshole:

Lieberman, through his Reuniting Our Country PAC, gave Smith’s reelection bid $5,000 on Oct. 10, according to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission. …

The same day he wrote a check to Smith, Lieberman’s ROC PAC gave $5,000 to Rep. Peter King, the Long Island Republican. In radio and TV appearances the final days of the campaign, Lieberman also frequently said that a Democratic majority of 60 votes, a filibuster-proof level, would be a bad thing.

I’m sure Lieberman gave as late as he did to try to hide the contributions – he did something similar with his shady petty cash accounts in 2006. Senate fundraising reports take forever to process – believe it or not, they are filed in hardcopy form and scanned in! It’s insane (and of course the GOP has blocked the ridiculously obvious reforms that would bring the Senate into the 20th century). It also means that final Senate reports are not publicly available until after the election, which totally defeats the point of campaign finance disclosure laws.

The Peter King donation would have been knowable, but few people were looking since King didn’t have competitive race. But for that reason – the closeness of the contest – the donation to El Gordo was the far bigger deal. It was disgusting enough that Joementia vocally supported Susan Collins and Norm Coleman (hell, if Franken loses, we can blame it on Lieberman). But cutting a check? That is truly a crime.

Like I said, what an asshole – not that we didn’t know that already.

Governor: Complete 2009/2010 Outlook

After reading a lot of diaries on the upcoming elections in 2010, as well as seeing early predictions from Charlie Cook, I decided to compile tables of all the races that will occur in 2010. For the governors, I will also include the 2009 races in New Jersey and Virginia. Tomorrow I will have the complete outlook for the Senators up in 2010, and Sunday I will have a complete table of House races worth watching. I will also update regularly any changes in these races as 2009 and 2010 go on.

NOTE: Just because a candidate is listed in the table does not necessarily mean that I think they will win. I am only listing the candidates that have received buzz about running.

And about the candidates such as Richardson and Napolitano, who will serve in the Obama administration, they are staying on this list until they are sworn in to their positions. Then their counterparts (Diane Denish and Jan Brewer respectively) will take their places.

The table is over the flip.

State Incumbent Term-Limited Potential to Flip Potential Challengers
Bob Riley
Artur Davis (AL-07)
Jim Folsom, Jr. (Lt. Gov.)
Ron Sparks (Ag. Com.)
Mike Rogers (AL-03)
Troy King (Att. Gen.)
Sarah Palin
Ethan Berkowtiz (St. Sen.)
Eric Croft (St. Rep.)
Diane Benson (2006 AK-AL nominee)
Janet Napolitano
Terry Goddard (Att. Gen.)
Jan Brewer (Sec. of State)
Dean Martin (State Treasurer)
Jeff Flake (AZ-06)
Mike Beebe
Arnold Schwarzenegger
Dianne Feinstein (U.S. Senator)
John Garamendi (Lt. Gov.)
Jerry Brown (Att. Gen.)
Bill Lockyer (State Treasurer)
Debra Bowen (Sec. of State)
Jack O’Connell (Ed. Sup.)
Loretta Sanchez (CA-47)
Antonio Villaraigosa (L.A. Mayor)
Gavin Newsom (S.F. Mayor)
Tom McClintock (State Sen.)
Darrell Issa (CA-49)
Steve Poizner (Ins. Comm.)
Meg Whitman (former eBay CEO)
Carly Fiorina (former HP CEO)
Bill Ritter
Jodi Rell
Richard Blumenthal (Att. Gen.)
Charlie Crist
Debbie Wasserman-Schultz (FL-20)
Ron Klein (FL-22)
Bill McCollum (Att. Gen.)
Sonny Perdue
Thurbert Baker (Att. Gen.)
DuBose Porter (House Min. Leader)
David Poythress
Jim Marshall (GA-08)
John Oxendine (Ins. Comm.)
Casey Cagle (Lt. Gov.)
Karen Handel (Sec. of State)
Linda Lingle
Neil Abercrombie (HI-01)
Mazie Hirono (HI-02)
Mufi Hannemann (Honolulu Mayor)
Colleen Hanabusa (St. Sen. Pres.)
Ed Case (former HI-02 rep.)
James Aiona (Lt. Gov.)
Butch Otter
Rod Blagojevich
Bill Brady (State Sen.)
Lisa Madigan (Att. Gen.)
Dan Hynes (Comptroller)
Tom Cross (State Rep.)
Mark Kirk (IL-10)
Chet Culver
Kathleen Sebelius
Mark Parkinson (Lt. Gov)
Sam Brownback (U.S. Senator)
Jerry Moran (KS-01)
Todd Tiahrt (KS-04)
John Baldacci
Tom Allen (ME-01)
Martin O’Malley
Deval Patrick
Jennifer Granholm
John Cherry (Lt. Gov.)
Bart Stupak (MI-01)
Mike Cox (Att. Gen.)
Terri Land (Sec. of State)
Candice Miller (MI-10)
Mike Rogers (MI-08)
Tim Pawlenty
Mike Hatch (former Att. Gen.)
R.T. Rybak (Minn. Mayor)
Dave Heineman
Jim Gibbons
Barbara Buckley (Assembly Speaker)
Oscar Goodman (Vegas Mayor)
Catherine Cortez-Masto (Att. Gen.)
Rory Reid (Clark Co. Comm’r.)
Dean Heller (NV-02)
New Hampshire
John Lynch
New Jersey
Jon Corzine
Chris Christie (U.S. Attorney)
Steve Lonegan (former Bogota mayor)
Brian Levine (Franklin Township mayor)
Rick Merkt (St. Asm.)
New Mexico
Bill Richardson
Diane Denish (Lt. Gov.)
New York
David Paterson
Andrew Cuomo (Att. Gen.)
Tom Suozzi (Nassau Co. Exec.)
John Faso (St. Asm. Min. Leader)
Rudy Giuliani (former NYC Mayor)
Peter King (NY-03)
Ted Strickland
Mike DeWine (Former U.S. Senator)
Rob Portman (Former OMB Director/Rep.)
Jim Petro (Former Att. Gen.)
Betty Montgomery (Former Att. Gen.)
John Kasich (Former Rep.)
Brad Henry
Drew Edmonson (Att. Gen.)
Jari Askins (Lt. Gov.)
Tom Cole (OK-04)
Mary Fallin (OK-05)
Ted Kulongoski
Brad Avakian (Lab. Comm.)
Earl Blumenauer (OR-03)
Bill Bradbury (Sec. of State)
Peter DeFazio (OR-04)
Randall Edwards (Treasurer)
Ben Westlund (St. Sen.)
Greg Walden (OR-02)
Ed Rendell
Michael Nutter (Philly Mayor)
John Shapiro (State Rep.)
Jack Wagner (Aud. Gen.)
Tom Corbett (Att. Gen.)
Melissa Hart (former PA-04 rep.)
Pat Toomey (2004 Sen. candidate)
Rhode Island
Don Carcieri
David Cicilline (Prov. Mayor)
Frank Caprio (State Treasurer)
Stephen Laffey (Cranston Mayor)
South Carolina
Mark Sanford
Paul Agnew (St. Rep.)
Joe Erwin (former State party chair)
Todd Rutherford (St. Rep.)
Henry McMaster (Att. Gen.)
André Bauer (Lt. Gov.)
J. Gresham Barrett (SC-03)
South Dakota
Mike Rounds
Scott Heidepriem (St. Sen.)
Mike Huether
Dennis Daugaard (Lt. Gov.)
Gary Hanson (ex-Sioux Falls Mayor)
Phil Bredesen
Lincoln Davis (TN-04)
Matt Kisber (TN Econ. Dev. comm.)
Kim McMillan (former State Rep.)
Harold Ford (former TN-09 Rep.)
Marsha Blackburn (TN-07)
Bill Gibbons (Nashville D.A.)
Beth Harwell (St. Rep.)
Bill Haslam (Knoxville Mayor)
Ron Ramsey (St. Sen.)
Rick Perry
Bill White (Houston mayor)
Kirk Watson (State Sen.)
Kinky Friedman (’06 Ind. candidate)
Kay Bailey Hutchison (U.S. Senator)
David Dewhurst (Lt. Gov.)
Jim Douglas
Tim Kaine
Bob McDonnell (Att. Gen.)
Terry McAuliffe (former DNC chair)
Creigh Deeds (State Sen.)
Brian Moran (State Del.)
Jim Doyle
Barbara Lawton (Lt. Gov.)
Tommy Thompson (former Gov.)
Scott Walker (Milwaukee Co. Exec.)
Dave Freudenthal

GA-Sen: Seventh Straight Poll Has Martin Trailing

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (11/23-25, likely voters, 11/17-18 in parens):

Jim Martin (D): 46 (45)

Saxby Chambliss (R-inc): 52 (51)

Undecided: 2 (4)

(MoE: ±4%)

The problem for Jim Martin is that, for him to win, every single poll of the run-off needs to be wrong:

It is possible, of course, since everyone seems to be struggling in terms of projecting turnout (as you might expect with a one-off election like this). But I should point out that the first-round polls were pretty good (they had Saxby up four in aggregate, while his final margin was three).

Martin does have a 56-44 lead among early voters. Unfortunately, that’s rather similar to his 56-39 lead with early voters in the final R2K poll before Nov. 4th – clearly, it seems, all of the libertarian’s support migrated to Saxby. However, if election day turnout among Republicans is weak, there’s a chance this early vote might carry Martin, despite the much lower early African American turnout. Interestingly, it looks like a greater proportion of likely voters have voted early this time – 28% vs. 12% in that late October poll.

We’ll know soon enough.

NV-Sen: Things Look a Little Dicey for Reid

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (11/23-25, likely voters):

Harry Reid (D-inc): 46

Jon Porter (R): 40

(MoE: ±4%)

Looks like Nevadans are feeling kind of lukewarm about Harry Reid these days. (“Lukewarm” and “Harry Reid” in the same sentence? Wow, I’ll bet that’s never happened before…) In a prospective 2010 matchup, he’s beating Jon Porter (who recently got bounced from his NV-03 seat by Dina Titus) by six points, although he’s well below the 50% comfort level.

The numbers below the fold look worse for Reid; his approval/disapproval rating is only 38/54 (luckily, Porter’s are little better at 40/39). When asked whether they’d choose to reelect Reid or consider replacing him, respondents say 32% reelect, 23% consider someone else, and 41% say replace him. Against a strong challenger with a statewide reputation, Reid could face some real trouble, leaving him possibly the only endangered Dem-held seat in 2010. However, between the badly depleted Republican bench in Nevada (Porter may truly be their best bet, as Lt. Governor Brian Krolicki may be looking at indictment rather than a run against Reid, and Rep. Dean Heller is likely to either stay in place or go for Governor) and Nevada’s rapid demographics-driven bluening, this race could just as easily turn into a non-issue.

Meet John Fleming, Republican Candidate for LA-04

First off why hasn’t the DCCC been spending more hitting this guy? There seems to be a total lack of the hustle we showed in TX-23 in 2006.

First off, Fleming has been forced by the lack of any type of supporter base to self-fund himself to the degree of 900,000 of 1.3 million total. He’s a doctor from Minden, a small community near Shreveport. Why isn’t Carmouche running away with this seat? Republicans only got a third tier candidate, and he, Jeff Thompson, who had all the infrastructure support of McCrery and the Chamber of Commerce, lost to this guy. Fleming had to go through a lot nastier primary, how has Carmouche not capitlized on this?

First off though, you should be concerned that Fleming could be a congressman. Fleming supports abolishing Social Security and our fairly weighted tax system in favor of a high national sales tax that would hurt poor and middle class people the most while largely allowed wealthy blessed people like him, that can waste a million dollars on a vanity congressional run and complain about high taxes at the same time, to be able to have to pay almost no taxes. A few thousand dollars at most, even if he makes six hundred thousand dollars or more.

Why are we not targeting this? Republicans really want this. The Republican Study Committee in the house has held fundraisers, Dick Cheney has come down, and the RCCC is spending heavily here. But the DCCC is just ah, so so here. They’re not spending much, or organizing much with staff. Where’s Clinton and others here? Where’s the hustles and fundraisers? Fleming is the definition of a far-right nucase and this isa great, rare opportunity, very rare opportunity, for Democrats to go after an open seat in Louisiana.  Republicans are trying to held this far right doctor sneak in agianst the best interest of his district. He’ll work non-stop to block healthcare reform, and he will try to put forward his crazy ideas on social security and the tax system. Come on people, slacken up a bit, start working, both Carmouche, us, and the DCCC, John Fleming is about the worst Congressman a district could have, come on we cannot let Republicans end their year with a bright spot, holding a conservative open seat with a nutcase., we cannot give them the mo going into the 2009 elections and 2010 elections. Republicans are working harder than us here, because they now how important it is to win it. Same in Georgia. We’re becoming apathetic again, and that is my fear; that we’ll become a complacent party that no longer cares about competing in tough places and that’s the first step back down.

P.S. Please vote in the poll, I use to determine readership, a sort ofgia counter.

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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KY-Sen: Statewide Recruitment Thread

Jim Bunning swears he’ll run again. After his nearly disastrous re-election campaign in 2004, when Democrat Dan Mongiardo (allegedly one of “Saddam Hussein’s sons“) nearly toppled him, even as Bush won the state by almost 20 points.

Who would you like to see run against Bunning in 2010? Luckily, we are blessed with a fairly deep Dem bench in Kentucky, including many statewide officeholders who won by impressive margins in 2007.

NYC-Mayor: Bloombo Leads Top Challengers, But Nums Aren’t Great

The New York City mayoral race stands a good chance of being the marquee municipal matchup of 2009. (I’m nerd enough to say that with a straight face.) Quinnipiac takes an early look at two potential matchups (11/18-23, registered voters):

Anthony Weiner (D): 34

Michael Bloomberg (I-inc): 50

Undecided: 13

(MoE: ±2.5%)

William Thompson (D): 34

Michael Bloomberg (I-inc): 49

Undecided: 14

Really, though, these questions essentially test Bloomberg against Generic D. Fifty-seven percent have no opinion of Weiner, who represents NY-09 in the House and came in second in the Democratic primary for mayor in 2005. For Thompson, the city’s two-term comptroller, that number is 70%. His Bloominess barely scrapes 50% against both guys.

Of course, there are so many potential wrinkles here. Either or both Thompson and Weiner could drop out. They could immolate each other in the primary (which is late, in September). Some Alan Gold-type Repuke could jump in and steal votes from Hizzoner.

More: Bloomstead could spend an insane sum – perhaps $200 million, though the sky’s the limit – which could drastically alter the landscape. Case in point: In the equivalent poll four years ago, Freddy Ferrer led Bloomington by 45-40 but got crushed on election day. Then again, Mayor Mike’s approvals were much lower then than now, thanks in part to his push for an unpopular football stadium on the West Side.

But that just shows you how much can change in a relatively short amount of time. Bloombo has staked his reptuation – and the raison d’etre for his obnoxious term-limits extension – on his ability to steer the city through the brewing financial crisis. If his leadership falters, his polling numbers are likely to follow. He might even pay a price straight-up for his nakedly self-interested gambit on term limits.

And finally, there still remains a chance that the term-limits move gets rejected in court, perhaps under the VRA. (Did you know that Brooklyn, Queens and Manhattan are all subject to pre-clearance rules?) While I give this scenario low odds, it would completely up-end things and put the Dems in the driver’s seat.

(Hat-tip: Political Wire)

OH-15: 6th Cir. Overturns Ruling on Provisionals; Stivers Up 594

Just a few days ago, Judge Algenon Marbley of the United States District Court for the Southern District of Ohio ruled that he, and not the Ohio Supreme Court, had jurisdiction to hear a suit brought by supporters of Steve Stivers as to whether a particular batch of 1,000 provisional votes cast in OH-15 should be counted. (And he also said they should in fact be counted.) Today, the United States Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit reversed that ruling, saying that the case should get sent back to the Ohio Supreme Court, where it was originally filed.

Note that the appeals court did not rule on whether those 1,000 votes can be counted – rather, they simply decided a jurisdictional dispute. The Ohio Supremes will rule on the merits of the issue; they are a 100% Republican-appointed bunch, so this unfortunately does not bode well.

Meanwhile, rural Madison County completed its vote count, putting Stivers’s lead at 594 votes. The only remaining votes now are therefore in Franklin, which has 27,306 provisional ballots outstanding, a number that I believe includes the 1,000 disputed ballots. The thing is, no one is quite sure how many of these 27K are in the 15th CD, though this district occupies about 40% of Franklin. Nonetheless, I’m going to try to estimate.

There are three CDs which occupy portions of Franklin County: OH-07, OH-12 and OH-15. Using unofficial returns (PDF), we can see that, counting over-votes and under-votes, about 50% of House race ballots were cast in the 15th, while 42% were in the 12th and 8% were in the 7th. So let’s say that half of the provisionals (13,500 or so) belong to the 15th. Now what?

Fortunately, we have a pretty good guide as to what we should do with those ballots. As we all know, this race was equally tight in 2006. That year, there were some 21,000 outstanding votes, and about 2,600 got rejected, or a little over 12%.

Pryce led by about 3,500 votes before the outstanding votes were counted. Her final margin was just 1,054. So if there were about 18,400 votes counted after rejections, that means Kilroy won those by about a 13% margin.

If similar numbers were to hold true this year, Kilroy would gain more than enough votes to beat Stivers – about 3,300 by the back of my envelope (or 1,400 if you double the rejection rate). But there are a few things to be aware of:

  • Last cycle, the NYT said that the outstanding ballots were split about evenly between absentees and provisionals. The former tend to have a much lower rejection rate than the latter. This time, news accounts have been referring to the outstanding 27K ballots as comprising only provisionals, which means the rejection rate will likely be higher (which is why I suggested doubling it in the hypothetical above).

  • News articles also are unclear about whether all of those 21K outstanding votes in 2006 were in OH-15  only or in Franklin County as a whole. If, as I’m speculating this year, only half were in the 15th, then Kilroy won them by something more like a 27% margin, rather than “just” 13%.

  • Could there really be fewer outstanding ballots in a presidential year than in a mid-term?   It’s possible, if absentees have already been counted (as I believe they have), but were not at this stage in 2006.

  • And one more note: Before the outstanding votes were tallied in 2006, Kilroy led in Franklin by three points (51-48), rather than the five she leads by now. So that’s good news.

In any event, take heart: If the 13,500 figure is correct, even if half of those ballots get thrown out, and even if Kilroy only takes the remainder by a 10% margin, she’d still win (albeit by fewer than 100 votes). I think those are pessimistic projections, so I think Kilroy has a good shot, assuming my math is right.

RandySF has more in the diaries.

OH-15: Appeals Court Thows Out District Ruling

Folks, we are nowhere near finishing counting the votes in the OH-15 race. According to the Columbus Dispatch, the always nasty 6th Circuit Court of Appeals has thrown out a lower court ruling that the 1,000 provisional ballots in Franklin County should be counted.

An appeals court ruled today that a federal judge erred in determining that Franklin County’s controversial provisional ballots can be counted.

The 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that the issue involves state law — not federal — and sent the case back to the Ohio Supreme Court, where it started. The unanimous ruling was made by Judges Jeffrey S. Sutton, Cornelia G. Kennedy and David W. McKeague.

Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner said she would not appeal, but urged justices to “quickly affirm their previous clear guidance ‘to liberally construe election laws in favor of the right to vote,’ so as not to disenfranchise approximately 1,000 Ohio voters with a hypertechnical interpretation of Ohio law.”

The decision puts a continued hold on two races that are still too close to call: the 15th Congressional District, where Republican Steve Stivers leads Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy, and the 19th Ohio House District, where Democrat Marian Harris has a 40-vote lead over Republican Brad Lewis.

Stivers’ lead grew to 594 votes today after Madison County finalized its vote count.

The outcome of the congressional race, though, will remain in limbo until legal challenges decide if Franklin County’s 27,000 provisional votes can be counted. It is not known how many of those votes are in the 15th district; roughly 40 percent of the county lies within the district.

The State Supreme Court is giving interested parties until 4pm on Monday to file their arguments. I still think Kilroy is going to win, but I have the following questions.

1. How many of the remaining 27,000 Franklin County ballots are in the district?

2. How many ballots are absentee and how many are provisionals? I hear each term used in different articles.

3. If they are all provisionals, what percentage are likely to get counted?

4. Assuming for a moment that the 1,000 are not counted, what are the odds that Kilroy will overcome the nearly 600 vote lead that Stivers currently has?

It sure is getting messy down there. I hope we have a winner by January!