Month: September 2009

It’s been over two months since we last took stock of the open seat situation in the House, so, once again, our crack team of open seat forensic analysts down at SSP Labs have put together a new edition of the 2010 House Open Seat Watch.

As always, we’ve compiled three separate lists: one of confirmed vacancies/retirements, another of potential open seats, and a third — available below the fold — of names that have dropped off the watch list. Once again, please note that “age” in our charts reflects the incumbent’s age on election day, 2010. Blue boxes indicate a new entry (or an incumbent who has been shuffled between categories). All tables are sortable — just click on any column header to sort.

Despite the August recess being a popular time for incumbents to announce their retirement plans, we don’t have much action to show for the summer break this time around. Perhaps that’s a reflection of the GOP bouncing back from rock bottom, but at least we’re not seeing a good deal of vulnerable Dem-held seats opening up — aside from the empty seats being left behind by Charlie Melancon and Joe Sestak as they pursue their Senatorial ambitions.

A list of incumbents whose names we’ve removed from the Open Seat Watch is available below the fold.

Resolved vacancies.

• AR-Sen: To few people’s surprise, Blanche Lincoln folded faster than Superman on laundry day on the public option issue when faced with a non-ridiculous challenge from the right. Still, her erstwhile GOP rival, Gilbert Baker, may not be quite as problem-free as the Beltway media have touted him as; ArkDem provides some essential local color in the diaries.

• CO-Sen: This isn’t going to endear the NRSC to the Colorado rank-and-filers (and even the party establishment, like state party head Dickwad Hams Dick Wadhams) any more: they just got caught building websites for former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton. This may help fuel whatever fire is suddenly burning under Weld Co. DA Ken Buck.

• MA-Sen: After contrasting reports yesterday about whether ex-Rep. Marty Meehan might or wouldn’t run for Senate, Politics magazine got him on the record saying that he “hadn’t ruled it out” but that he was absorbed in his university chancellor job and that he’d defer to either Vicky or Joe Kennedy. No word on what happens to his $4 million if he doesn’t run.

• NY-Gov: The Eliot Spitzer boomlet lasted about one day before he laughed it off, but a quickie SurveyUSA poll verified that he’s still got some political mojo left. 15% of New Yorkers said they’d still vote for him no matter what office, 47% said they might, depending on the office, and only 39% said no way. He also won against David Paterson on the curiously worded question of “who’s better qualified” to be Governor, 41-24, although Rudy Giuliani wins the same question against Spitzer, 59-25.

• OR-Gov: As we reported yesterday, ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber made it official this morning: he’s in the race. Former SoS Bill Bradbury, who’s already in the Dem primary, now says he will be announcing something on Sept. 17 (he’d previously alluded to staying in even if Kitzhaber got in, but we’ll have to see what he says now that it’s happened). Meanwhile, SurveyUSA has another snap poll, this time of the favorables of the race’s announced players so far: Kitzhaber has a fave of 33/26, Bradbury is at 21/20, and moderate Republican Allen Alley (the 2008 Treasurer candidate, and a former deputy CoS to Democratic Gov. Ted Kulongoski) is at a woeful 8/10.

• VT-Gov: Two other names for potential GOP gubernatorial candidates have surfaced, in addition to Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie. One is Mark Snelling, who’s never held office before but benefits from a prominent family name (he’s the son of ex-Gov. Richard Snelling and ex-Lt. Gov. Barbara Snelling). Another possibility is former Auditor Randy Brock who served one term, 2004-2006, before losing re-election.

• CA-24: Marta Jorgensen, a nurse who held Rep. Elton Gallegly to 56% in 2008, said she’s back for another try in 2010. Gallegly, frequent retirement speculation target, hasn’t formally announced he’s running but informally said he’ll run again.

• IL-14: Another GOPer is taking a look at the race against Bill Foster, joining Ethan Hastert and Mark Vargas. Bill Cross is a former member of the Aurora City Council and owns two hardware stores in the district.

• KS-03: Rep. Dennis Moore has proven pretty entrenched in his light-red district in the Kansas City suburbs, repelling state Sen. Nick Jordan in 2008 without much trouble. Still, he’s drawn another credible challenge for 2010, from GOP former state Rep. Patricia Lightner.

• LA-03: One more name to add to the seemingly endless pile of possible candidates in the open seat in the 3rd: Craig Webre, sheriff of Lafourche Parish (popu. 90,000). The article is strangely unclear about what party he’d be running for — Webre is registered as a Republican, but Democrat Reggie Dupre (the former state Senator whose resignation triggered last week’s successful special election in SD-20) was advising Webre and was the article’s source — although considering how porous party lines can be in Louisiana, that seems typical. Dupre, who just took over as Terrebonne Parish levee director, confirmed that he himself wouldn’t run.

• VA-02, 05, 11: The trio of Virginia freshmen (Tom Perriello, Glenn Nye, and Gerry Connolly) have banded together in a joint fundraising committee. Connolly has to be seen as less vulnerable than the other two, but still needs resources for a potentially expensive rematch against Keith Fimian.

• CA-Lt. Gov: With the now very-high likelihood that John Garamendi will be heading to Washington DC in a few months, the question arises of who Arnold Schwarzenegger will replace him with. Sorta-moderate state Sen. Abel Maldonado gets the most press; his appointment would open up a Senate seat in a Dem-leaning area that could get Senate Dems closer to that magic 2/3s mark. Assemblyman (and former minority leader) Mike Villines is another possibility; another idea is giving the job to ex-Rep. Tom Campbell in order to pry him out of the Governor’s race. Schwarzenegger is mavericky enough he might appoint a Democrat, too; one name mentioned is former Assembly speaker Bob Hertzberg, who has occasionally cooperated with the Governator.

• Seattle Mayor: The mayor’s race in Seattle, between two unknowns (Mike McGinn and Joe Mallahan) who won the primary after incumbent Greg Nickels KO’d himself, briefly threatened to get much more interesting when prominent state Sen. Ed Murray started exploring running as a write-in, sensing an opening for someone who actually knows what the hell he’s doing. Although he could have counted on a lot of both labor and real estate developer support, he decided against it yesterday, aware of the extreme technical difficulty in mounting a successful write-in campaign on weeks’ notice. Murray instead remains the most-talked-about successor to Rep. Jim McDermott, although it seems like he could be waiting another decade for that seat to open up.

PPP (pdf) (8/28-31, likely voters, 7/31-8/3 in parens):

Creigh Deeds (D): 42 (37)

Bob McDonnell (R): 49 (51)

(MoE: ±4%)

State Sen. Creigh Deeds still is in a hole against AG Bob McDonnell in the Virginia Governor’s race, but he’s cut a 14 point gap to 7 in less than a month. It’s also worth noting that the Washington Post broke Thesis-gate in the middle of the sample period, so only one day of polling reflects this provocative information.

While McDonell’s high favorables are starting to erode a bit (they’re down to 53/31, from 54/26 last month), PPP points to a big problem for Deeds trying to get over the top: he still trails badly among independents 60-29. The better performance for Deeds seems to be Dems finally getting more interested in the race and intending to vote, helping them fall within the LV screen (although the sample is still a McCain +4 sample, down from McCain +11 last month).

Down the ballot, Republicans lead the two other races: incumbent Bill Bolling over Jody Wagner in the Lt. Governor race, 46-40, and crazy state Sen. Ken Cuccinelli over state Del. Steve Shannon in the AG race, 48-35.

RaceTracker Wiki: VA-Gov

The Bean Walker, Iowa’s copycat version of The Drudge Report, was thrilled to link to the latest approval numbers from Survey USA yesterday:

Iowa

Pres. Obama: 45 / 51

Sen. Grassley: 54 / 34

Sen. Harkin: 49 / 38

Gov. Culver: 36 / 51

This statewide poll of 600 adults was conducted on August 26 and 27 and is said to have a margin of error of 4 percent. It’s the first time any pollster has found the president below 50 percent approval in Iowa, and the first time any pollster has found the governor’s approval in the 30s. For more details about various demographic groups in this poll, you can find Culver’s chart here, charts on Harkin and Grassley here, and Obama’s chart here.

Looking at Survey USA’s trendlines for Culver since he took office, I noticed that Culver’s disapproval number is basically unchanged this summer, but his approval number has dropped significantly from 42 percent in June and 44 percent in July to 36 percent in late August.

Before anyone panics, note that Survey USA’s approval numbers for Culver tend to run low compared to other pollsters. In early July, the poll commissioned by The Iowa Republican blog found Culver’s approve/disapprove numbers to be 53 percent/41 percent. Later the same month, Hill Research Consultants’ poll for the Iowa First Foundation found Culver’s favorability at 52 percent. (The Iowa First Foundation did not release the governor’s approval number from that poll, but you better believe they would have if the number had been in the 30s or even the low 40s.) Meanwhile, Survey USA pegged Culver’s approval at 44 percent on July 20.

Survey USA’s numbers for Obama, Harkin and Grassley are also noticeably down in the latest poll. Obama is at a record low in Iowa. Grassley’s approval of 54 percent is the lowest Survey USA has found in at least four years. I couldn’t find a similar graph for Harkin’s numbers, but it’s been a very long time since I can remember seeing his approval rating below 50.

Of course, it’s possible that the recession and the health care debate have affected Iowans’ view of all political leaders. Still, I would like to see these numbers confirmed by some other pollster. Even with the best sampling techniques, approximately 1 in 20 polls is wrong just by chance.

I also agree with Steve Singiser that if Culver were this unpopular in Iowa, Democrat Curt Hanson would not have won yesterday’s special election in Iowa House district 90 (a swing district). The Republicans ran at least two television ads linking Hanson to Culver (see here and here).

I’m looking forward to the next Selzer and Associates poll for the Des Moines Register, which probably will come later this month or in early October.

Share any relevant thoughts in this thread.

UPDATE: Bleeding Heartland user ragbrai08 noticed this:

The sample composition:

D-28

R-34

NP-35

Obviously, if considering registered adults, the D/R fractions should be reversed. However, back in July, they used:

D-38

R-24

NP-34

so the Dem fraction was too high back then. Conclusion? Perhaps the July survey was a bit too favorable, and perhaps this one a bit too unfavorable.

In an off-year election, turnout among no-party voters is likely to be lower. Even with a demoralized Democratic base, I’d be surprised if Iowa’s electorate next year was comprised of 28 percent Democrats and 34 percent Republicans. Right now Democrats have a voter registration advantage of about 100,000 over Republicans.

A little-noticed provision slipped into a pending Department of Defense spending bill by Chuck Schumer might have the effect of forcing states with September primaries to hold them earlier:

The provision requires that absentee ballots be mailed out to potential overseas voters at least 45 days before the general election. Although the provision’s inclusion in a Defense bill is justified by its impact on armed forces members serving overseas, it will affect all overseas voters.

The piece’s author, Eric Black, explains the effect it would have in Minnesota:

The 45-day deadline for mailing the ballots would technically fall after Minesota’s traditional primary date, but [Secretary of State Mark] Ritchie said there would not be enough time to certify the results of a primary election and get ballots printed to meet the deadline.

But Minnesota isn’t the only state with a late primary. In 2008, ten other states had primaries in September: AZ, NH, WI, VT, RI, DE, NY, MA, HI & LA. Meanwhile, FL, AK, WY & WA all had primaries in the second half of August. In other words, this provision could wind up affecting quite a few states. While Black says that MN would likely move its primary to August, others might move them even earlier.

Personally, I’ve always hated late primaries – they only serve as an incumbent protection racket. In my own state of New York, winners of contested primaries have less than two months to turn around and face an entrenched incumbent. Chuck Schumer, in fact, knows this all too well – in 1998, he had a hard-fought nominating contest against Mark Green and Geraldine Ferraro, and then managed to pull off a big upset against Al D’Amato just six weeks later. Of course, now that the shoe is on the other foot, a late primary only helps Schumer… so maybe this wasn’t even on his mind (or maybe he just thinks it’s a good idea anyway).

I’d like to see all of these states consider moving their primaries to June or thereabouts. Not only would that be the democratic thing to do, there’s always a concern about recounts. Indeed, one of the states with late primaries, Alaska, had a lengthy recount last year. Of course, as Black notes, if you have a Franken-style recount in a primary, you’re probably in trouble for the general no matter what. But at least a June election would give everyone more time. Anyhow, I’ll be very curious to see how states react to this, especially since it appears that a lot of folks don’t know this is coming down the pike.

12:10 AM: All 176 of 176 precincts are reporting; John Garamendi and David Harmer advance to the general. The final tally is Garamendi at 26%, Harmer at 21%, DeSaulnier at 18%, Buchanan at 12%, and Woods at 8%.

11:40 PM: I think Representative Garamendi can start picking out his color of swearing-in tie. I did some more quick addition, adding up the percentage of all Dems and all Republicans. Democrats got 64% of the vote, Republicans 34%. That’s remarkably similar to the 2008 vote, where Obama got 65% and McCain got 33%. If there’s a wave of national discontent with Democrats, or a big shift in the electorate’s composition or levels of enthusiasm between the parties, we aren’t seeing it here in the 10th tonight.  

11:30 PM: I did my own round of addition again, as the counties are far outpacing the SoS. Based on the four counties, we’re up to 139 of 176 (82%) reporting, with Garamendi at 26%, Harmer at 20%, DeSaulnier at 17%, Buchanan at 12%, and Woods at 8%. 20 precincts are outstanding in Contra Costa, and 17 are left in Solano.

11:05 PM: While we wait for more updates, don’t forget there was also a special election in the basically safe seat of AD 51 in Los Angeles. With 100% in, it looks like we’ll be avoiding a general, as Democrat Steven Bradford broke 50%. He got 53%, to 19% for fellow Dem Gloria Gray and 17% for GOPer David Coffin.

10:55 PM: The SoS office is finally getting into the act. Their numbers are a pretty close match to ours: Garamendi at 27%, Harmer and DeSaulnier at 19%, Buchanan at 12%, and Woods at 7%. Remember, though, that these are California rules, so even if DeSaulnier somehow edged out Harmer in the all-party primary, Harmer still goes to the general because the top D and R advance.

10:30 PM: I broke out the ol’ abacus, so now we can have some districtwide totals (despite the SoS still not having any info). With 102 of 170 (60%) reporting, including another Contra Costa batch, Garamendi and Harmer are well in control. Garamendi has 22,345 (27%), Harmer at 16,064 (19%), DeSaulnier at 13,827 (17%), Buchanan at 9,955 (12%), and Woods at 6,870 (8%).

10:20 PM: Now we have Contra Costa and Alameda with some details. In Contra Costa, 28 of 97 are reporting. Garamendi leads at 14,459 (26%), followed by DeSaulnier not far behind (here’s where his Senate district is) at 11,743 (21%), then Harmer at 10,589 (19%) and Buchanan at 6,540 (12%). In Alameda, with 22 of 34 reporting, Garamendi leads at 2,423 (32%), Harmer at 1,565 (21%), and Buchanan at 1,060 (14%). (Use the KCBS site. Still nothing happening at the SoS office.)

10:15 PM (Crisitunity): Well, things are starting to happen. Solano County is half in (23 of 40), and Garamendi leads with 4,573 votes, 29%. Harmer is 2nd with 2,912: 19%, followed by Woods with 2,383 (15%) and Buchanan at 1,921 (12%). All of Sacramento County has reported but it’s only a sliver of the district (5 precincts out of 176 total). Garamendi dominated, winning 51% (with only 179 votes?!?).

Since Gov. Schwarzenegger has ordered the results held for the 10th District special election until 10pm Pacific (1am Eastern), it looks like us open seats fans will be burning the midnight oil tonight. But that does give you a bit of extra time to squeeze in a last-minute prediction…

RESULTS: CA SoS | KCBS

11:06PM: It’s over – Hanson wins! Congratulations! Final tally: 3,932 to 3,825. Burgmeier actually carried Wapello by four votes, but it wasn’t enough. Anyhow, this is great news… for John McCain!

10:55PM: Pass the dutchie ‘pon the lef’ han’ side… looks like our friends at the Wapello County Board of Elections are taking a bit of a ganja break.

10:38PM: The first two precincts in Wapello have come in, and they are looking good for Hanson – he leads there 339-178. Burgmeier would need to carry those last six precincts by an 18-point margin to eke out a win.

10:34PM: All of the outstanding precincts are in Wapello Co., which Obama won with 55% of the vote last fall.

10:33PM: Much closer now – 20 of 28 precincts, and Hanson’s lead is just 3,335 to 3,224.

10:22PM: Polls are closed in Iowa, and with a quarter of precincts reporting (all from Jefferson Co.), Dem Carl Hanson has a lead of 2,050 to 1,441.

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James provided some background on both of tonight’s special elections in this earlier post. Polls close in Iowa at 10pm Eastern time, and in California at 11pm. UPDATE: Via folks in comments, Gov. Schwarzenegger has ordered that results be held until 10pm Pacific (1am Eastern) so that firefighters from the district who are fighting fires in Southern California can have extra time to vote.

Results: IA SoS | CA SoS

If you have other results links, please post `em in comments. Also, as always, you can use this thread to make predictions.

So far, the theoretically vulnerable Blanche Lincoln has been dogged by a whole pack of potential Republican challengers — but they’re more like a pack of prairie dogs than a pack of wolves, given their lack of name recognition, lack of fundraising, and propensity for racist gaffes, anti-semitic gaffes, and just generic ultra-right craziness. Unfortunately for Lincoln, she may face a somewhat smoother and more competent opponent: state Senator Gilbert Baker, who will soon enter the race according to Politico:

The Arkansas Senate picture will be getting a little more interesting: Republican state Sen. Gilbert Baker will be entering the race against Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.) today, according to two senior Republican sources.

Baker, after mulling over the race earlier this year, initially decided not to run. But after looking at polls showing Lincoln vulnerable and in the wake of a weak Republican field, he reconsidered and will be making a campaign announcement this afternoon.

Blanche Lincoln fares the worst against Baker among three GOPers polled by PPP several weeks ago (she loses 40-42 to Baker, despite his widely-unknown 7/15 favorable rating, mostly showing just how unenthused constituents are with Lincoln). Baker represents Little Rock’s northern suburbs, so he has a decent regional base to build from. He also benefits from connections from a stint as the state GOP chair, which may give him a fundraising edge.

One possible problem for Baker, though, is that some in the party view him as too moderate or at least accommodating with Democrats; Baker, for instance, is tight with Democratic state senate leader Bob Johnson, the same guy who was just talking about challenging Blanche Lincoln from the right in the Dem primary (Baker was the beneficiary of a fundraiser held by Johnson, and Baker apparently helped Johnson secure his Democratic leadership position). While that could drag him down in a primary, the hard-right end of the spectrum seems fractured among half a dozen Gong Show contestants, so, assuming he doesn’t start following everyone else’s lead and dropping too many racial slurs or F-bombs while on the campaign trail, he may have a good shot at being the nominee.

• MA-Sen: Now we know the dates for the special election to fill the seat left behind by Ted Kennedy. Deval Patrick set the dates as Dec. 8 for the primary (which will be the real focus in this dark blue state) and Jan. 19 for the general. Meanwhile, while many possible contenders are waiting to see what Joe Kennedy II does, it looks like AG Martha Coakley (who has been sizing up a Senate run for years) isn’t wasting any time. One of her representatives picked up filing papers today.

• FL-Sen: It shouldn’t be a surprise that Marco Rubio didn’t like Charlie Crist’s pick of George LeMieux as interim Senator, since approximately nobody liked it. Rubio takes to NRO to say he would have picked conservative Orlando-area state Sen. Dan Webster instead (who could still surface as a candidate in FL-08).

• IL-Sen: Cheryle Jackson, president of Chicago’s Urban League, hasn’t gotten much attention yet in the Democratic primary. However, she just got several noteworthy endorsements, from Rep. Bobby Rush and the Cook County Democratic Women Organization.

• NC-Sen: Maybe Rep. Bob Etheridge is moving toward a Senate run after all? He just launched a blistering salvo toward Richard Burr over health care reform in a DNC conference call today, attacking Burr’s “Patients Choice Act” counterproposal. Etheridge wouldn’t say anything about his intentions for 2010, though.

• NY-Sen-B: Somehow the New York Post got the ball rolling on the idea of an Eliot Spitzer comeback, either with a run for Comptroller or even Kirsten Gillibrand’s Senate seat. Spitzer quickly acted today to dispel the idea.

• SC-Sen: Democrats are back to the drawing board on a challenger for Jim DeMint. State Sen. Bradley Hutto had sounded very interested, but announced over the weekend that he won’t run. Lawyer and former Fritz Holling aide Ashley Cooper is about the only other credible name on tap.

• NJ-Gov: The police department of Lambertville, NJ – the town where Chris Christie got seemingly preferential treatment after he was pulled over for speeding back in 2005 – says that their director is “no longer returning media calls.” Sketchy, huh? Christie’s varying tales about what exactly happened at that stop aren’t helping him, either. He’s now claiming that his identity as US Attorney only came up during the incident because the tow-truck driver recognized him. Shah, right. (D)

• SC-Gov: Seems like Mark Sanford’s up to his 10th or 11th life already. After rumors that the legislature was ready to do a special session to impeach him, now the state GOP is saying it’s not ready to issue an ultimatum letter threatning impeachment (although they throw the door open to any lawmakers wanting to draft the legislation individually).

• MO-04: It’s not unusual for a challenger to have nice things he said about an incumbent thrown back in his face. But this is kind of an extreme case: GOP state Sen. Bill Stouffer, chasing 33-year Rep. Ike Skelton in the 4th, has not only called Skelton “an outstanding advocate for the people of west-central Missouri and the state as a whole” but said it while sponsoring legislation to name a bridge after Skelton.

• NY-19: Republican Assemblyman Greg Ball continues to impress, well, at least Pete Sessions; he just got named to the “On the Radar” part of the NRCC’s “Young Guns” program. He’s running against sophomore Rep. John Hall in this R+3 district.

• NY-23: Looks like Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman is gaining some traction, seeing as Republican nominee Dede Scozzafava has started attacking him in the press. This could bode well for Democrat Bill Owens – back in 2004, in a state Senate race in the same part of New York, Dem David Valesky snuck through with a narrow win after a Conservative candidate helped split the right-wing vote in the district. (D)

• WI-05: Best wishes for a speedy recovery for Wisconsin’s Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner, who has been diagnosed with treatable, early stage prostate cancer.